虽然看起来开厂不赚钱，但他的作用是无限的。
1.商业触角可上通下达，上可通国家，下可达小园主。
如果有一间公司有很多小园主找他提炼，无形中他就能建立起销售对象，比如说卖树苗，卖有机肥，土地测验。
2.所有税务（如有）都由小园主承担，不管政府的政策如何改变。
3.提炼厂向小园主收购FFB，通常都是18.5%（介于grade A和grade B的FFB等级），目前收购价大约是RM385/吨，如果把提炼出来的CPO卖出，可以卖到RM2050/吨。
5吨的FFB，可提炼出1吨的CPO，因此收购FFB的成本是RM1950，看起来相当的薄利。
但，还有palm kernel没有算。
每吨的CPO可以拿到230kg的pk，可卖RM211.6。（920/ton）
2050 - 1950 + 211.6 = RM311.6
milling cost大约是RM120。
所以每吨CPO能赚RM191.6。
一间40ton ffb/hour的工厂，一个小时能赚RM1532.8，一天开工16个小时，可赚RM24524.8，一年如果算300天，可赚RM7357440，税务扣25%，净利为RM5518080。
一座全新的提炼厂，要RM35,000,000，所以，开厂的本益比是6.34。开厂可以经营30年以上，比种植的漫长等待快多了。
但，以上算式或许是错的，因为很多miller都不赚钱，姑且就把本益比拉高一倍好了(12.68)。
上述的好处，不能算好处，只能说是刚刚好，不过，如果考虑下列，又怎么看？
4.似乎忘了废物利用，提炼厂残余（ＰＯＭＥ）可制成肥料，成本可大大降低。
那些把残余排掉，破坏环境的厂商，不考虑，这里只谈规模较大的公司。
处理１吨的ＦＦＢ，可以拿回多少的肥料呢？这个我不算了，可参考这里。
【remark 1 day later: 不是不算，是没确定性。虽然POME有N，P，K，Mg，但它终究是biofertilizer。】
５.碳配额（如有）
考虑了这么多好处，我觉得他比edible oil manufacturer还要好赚。至于是不是真的，就要找找TSH-WILMAR联营公司，KWANTAS，KSENG的经营记录了。
31 March 2009
30 March 2009
印度入口关税会影响豆油和棕油价差吗？
【edit hours later】
必须对数据中的100%关税作出修正。
100%关税是根据wto提供的zip档找出的，这是parent page，code是151110。
我搜索了一下新闻，2006的印度棕油入口关税是70%。
以下博文的原貌和结论，已被破例修正。
【end of edit】
下表是历年来印度的入口税。
资料不准确（原本要删除的），仅供参考。
some fragmented info of indian import tariff on soybean oil and palm oil.
the folowing table is inaccurate and tantamount to deletion, For Your Reference Only. for "more" accurate info, please back to top. still, i am not liable for accuracy.
data need delete
cpo和sbo的走势，从2000-2008年，来自MPOB网站。
可以用你的眼力观察sbo和cpo的变动。
mpob没有raw data供你计算，它只提供了这张图。
NORTH WEST EUROPE MARKET - US$ / TONNE
soybean oil/palm oil ratio
资料同样取自MPOB网站，记录的NORTH WEST EUROPE MARKET，豆油/棕榈油(SBO/CPO)的价格比。以2002年的系数（1.164）为例，该年的豆油是454美元，棕油是390美元，价格比（454/390）是1.164。
当然可能欧洲也征收了入口税，导致价格比的计算不准确。是的，欧洲也征收来自马来西亚的CPO入口税，但都很低，以2000年为例，只有0.7%而已。从2006到目前，如果没错的话，CPO是免入口税的。
欧盟反而向黄豆生产国巴西和美国征收更高黄豆油入口税，介于2.5%到3.5%。
remark：
CPO入口税和edible palm oil入口税不一样，以上计算以CPO为准。
还有一个补充例子就是，欧盟比较愿意接受CPO，不太能接受processed palm oil，原因是在船运过程中，CPO比较不会变质，CPO也方便加工。
这也是为什么荷兰是食油提炼中心的原因。
必须对数据中的100%关税作出修正。
100%关税是根据wto提供的zip档找出的，这是parent page，code是151110。
我搜索了一下新闻，2006的印度棕油入口关税是70%。
以下博文的原貌和结论，已被破例修正。
【end of edit】
下表是历年来印度的入口税。
资料不准确（原本要删除的），仅供参考。
some fragmented info of indian import tariff on soybean oil and palm oil.
the folowing table is inaccurate and tantamount to deletion, For Your Reference Only. for "more" accurate info, please back to top. still, i am not liable for accuracy.
data need delete
cpo和sbo的走势，从2000-2008年，来自MPOB网站。
可以用你的眼力观察sbo和cpo的变动。
mpob没有raw data供你计算，它只提供了这张图。
NORTH WEST EUROPE MARKET - US$ / TONNE
soybean oil/palm oil ratio
资料同样取自MPOB网站，记录的NORTH WEST EUROPE MARKET，豆油/棕榈油(SBO/CPO)的价格比。以2002年的系数（1.164）为例，该年的豆油是454美元，棕油是390美元，价格比（454/390）是1.164。
当然可能欧洲也征收了入口税，导致价格比的计算不准确。是的，欧洲也征收来自马来西亚的CPO入口税，但都很低，以2000年为例，只有0.7%而已。从2006到目前，如果没错的话，CPO是免入口税的。
欧盟反而向黄豆生产国巴西和美国征收更高黄豆油入口税，介于2.5%到3.5%。
remark：
CPO入口税和edible palm oil入口税不一样，以上计算以CPO为准。
还有一个补充例子就是，欧盟比较愿意接受CPO，不太能接受processed palm oil，原因是在船运过程中，CPO比较不会变质，CPO也方便加工。
这也是为什么荷兰是食油提炼中心的原因。
29 March 2009
一些收割需注意的事项
果串(FFB)如果过熟，是不会增加含油量的，只会增加free fatty acid，送厂要扣钱。有的CEO在近年发生水灾时透露，如果水灾不方便收割，可任由果串长在树上，这个办法是无计可施下的办法了。
过熟的果粒会从果串剥落，刚掉落到地的果粒是最饱和的，但free fatty acid会增加很快。在CPO飞涨的时候，捡起地上的果粒所得每天也能达到RM80。
不完整的果串要扣钱。厂商会根据果粒的平均重量（克）和损失的平均果粒数目，计算出掉落果粒的重量，换算成吨（tons）。如果能证明自己有把所有地上的果粒捡起，是可以不用扣钱的。
果串的“柄”，要越短越好。
柄会降低厂商的评估，柄不只会降低含油量，也会在提炼过程中吸收掉油。
果串的顶部先熟，底部后熟，收割的最佳时间，应该以“果粒几乎可剥落”的程度为准。
过熟的果粒会从果串剥落，刚掉落到地的果粒是最饱和的，但free fatty acid会增加很快。在CPO飞涨的时候，捡起地上的果粒所得每天也能达到RM80。
不完整的果串要扣钱。厂商会根据果粒的平均重量（克）和损失的平均果粒数目，计算出掉落果粒的重量，换算成吨（tons）。如果能证明自己有把所有地上的果粒捡起，是可以不用扣钱的。
果串的“柄”，要越短越好。
柄会降低厂商的评估，柄不只会降低含油量，也会在提炼过程中吸收掉油。
果串的顶部先熟，底部后熟，收割的最佳时间，应该以“果粒几乎可剥落”的程度为准。
28 March 2009
biological stress
biological stress的真正情况也不是很懂，但就我的理解应该是受到天气状况影响所作出的抵抗反应。
干旱影响最为严重，如果两个月不降雨，油棕树会在6个月-12个月后停产。
如果是下雨就没有那么严重，他只会阻碍授粉过程，影响的只是5个月-6个月后的结果率。
以旱季为例，经过了旱季的biological stress以后，油棕树会有一个突然上升的盛产期，通常这个盛产期可持续8个月，这8个月也是港口存货上升的时候，8个月一过，产量就会回到正常水平，也就是两年前的水平。
从去年12月开始，棕油的产量就下跌了，有人说这是biological stress，有人说这是回到正常水平，这个答案必须找回一年半前的天气状况了。这也是USDA能根据天气状况准确预测的原因。
USDA为美国农业部。
干旱影响最为严重，如果两个月不降雨，油棕树会在6个月-12个月后停产。
如果是下雨就没有那么严重，他只会阻碍授粉过程，影响的只是5个月-6个月后的结果率。
以旱季为例，经过了旱季的biological stress以后，油棕树会有一个突然上升的盛产期，通常这个盛产期可持续8个月，这8个月也是港口存货上升的时候，8个月一过，产量就会回到正常水平，也就是两年前的水平。
从去年12月开始，棕油的产量就下跌了，有人说这是biological stress，有人说这是回到正常水平，这个答案必须找回一年半前的天气状况了。这也是USDA能根据天气状况准确预测的原因。
USDA为美国农业部。
25 March 2009
Indonesia's Sinar Mas defends palm oil expansion
http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSJAK429905
Fri Mar 20, 2009 6:31am EDT
Email | Print | Share | Reprints | Single Page
[-] Text [+]
By Aloysius Bhui
JAKARTA, March 20 (Reuters) - Sinar Mas Group, one of Indonesia's top palm oil growers, denied on Friday accusations that its activities were damaging the environment and said it would stick to plans to expand its plantations.
Greenpeace activists have targeted Sinar Mas in a recent campaign for contributing to deforestation in Indonesia, which is blamed as a key source greenhouse gas emissions in the Southeast Asian country.
"We should have been arrested if we had ever been involved in deforestation," Gandi Sulistiyanto, a managing director of Sinar Mas Group, told Reuters.
He said the company only opened up new plantations in degraded land that had been farmed on or previously logged and not rainforest.
Sinar Mas Group owns publicly-listed PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources Tbk (SMART) (SMAR.JK), which runs its palm oil business, and Asia Pulp & Paper (APP), which operates the pulp and paper business.
Bustar Maitar, Greenpeace Southeast Asia forest campaigner, accused Sinar Mas of destroying forest areas.
"We are facing the greatest threat to humanity -- climate chaos, yet still companies like Sinar Mas can continue to destroy forests and peatlands, rather than protecting them for future generations," Maitar said in a statement.
As of the end of September, SMART managed 127,124 hectares (314,100 acres) of planted oil palm, according to the company.
It produced 410,314 tonnes of crude palm oil in January-September last year, against 509,095 tonnes in all of 2007. [ID:nJAK279457]
The group has earmarked a $100 million palm expansion this year and is not planning to pull back the plan.
"We are still a growing company. We (Indonesia) are still competing with Malaysia to become the world's top producer of palm oil. So we must keep planting," Sulistiyanto said.
He said the current financial crisis may slow down the expansion but would not stop the firm from planting in new areas.
According to Greenpeace, Sinar Mas has 200,000 hectares of unplanted concessions in rainforest in Indonesia and plans to acquire an additional 1.1 million hectares, mainly in Papua.
Sulistiyanto said the firm was currently focused on managing the 11,000 hectares that it has planted with oil palm in the past 14 years in Papua.
"Everybody is eyeing Papua because of its huge land but we haven't got any more concessions there," he said.
Indonesia, the world's top producer of palm oil -- used in a wide range of products, from soap to biodiesel -- is expected to produce 20.25 million tonnes of palm oil in 2009, up from 18.8 million in 2008, the industry association has estimated.
Annette Cotter, campaign manager for the forests campaign in Greenpeace Southeast Asia, has urged Indonesia palm growers to squeeze far higher yields from existing plantations rather than open up more land. [ID:nJAK381772]
Indonesia yields only about 2 tonnes per hectare from its plantations, or just a third of the 6 to 7 tonnes in countries such as Malaysia with better estate management practices. (Editing by Ed Davies and Valerie Lee)
Fri Mar 20, 2009 6:31am EDT
Email | Print | Share | Reprints | Single Page
[-] Text [+]
By Aloysius Bhui
JAKARTA, March 20 (Reuters) - Sinar Mas Group, one of Indonesia's top palm oil growers, denied on Friday accusations that its activities were damaging the environment and said it would stick to plans to expand its plantations.
Greenpeace activists have targeted Sinar Mas in a recent campaign for contributing to deforestation in Indonesia, which is blamed as a key source greenhouse gas emissions in the Southeast Asian country.
"We should have been arrested if we had ever been involved in deforestation," Gandi Sulistiyanto, a managing director of Sinar Mas Group, told Reuters.
He said the company only opened up new plantations in degraded land that had been farmed on or previously logged and not rainforest.
Sinar Mas Group owns publicly-listed PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources Tbk (SMART) (SMAR.JK), which runs its palm oil business, and Asia Pulp & Paper (APP), which operates the pulp and paper business.
Bustar Maitar, Greenpeace Southeast Asia forest campaigner, accused Sinar Mas of destroying forest areas.
"We are facing the greatest threat to humanity -- climate chaos, yet still companies like Sinar Mas can continue to destroy forests and peatlands, rather than protecting them for future generations," Maitar said in a statement.
As of the end of September, SMART managed 127,124 hectares (314,100 acres) of planted oil palm, according to the company.
It produced 410,314 tonnes of crude palm oil in January-September last year, against 509,095 tonnes in all of 2007. [ID:nJAK279457]
The group has earmarked a $100 million palm expansion this year and is not planning to pull back the plan.
"We are still a growing company. We (Indonesia) are still competing with Malaysia to become the world's top producer of palm oil. So we must keep planting," Sulistiyanto said.
He said the current financial crisis may slow down the expansion but would not stop the firm from planting in new areas.
According to Greenpeace, Sinar Mas has 200,000 hectares of unplanted concessions in rainforest in Indonesia and plans to acquire an additional 1.1 million hectares, mainly in Papua.
Sulistiyanto said the firm was currently focused on managing the 11,000 hectares that it has planted with oil palm in the past 14 years in Papua.
"Everybody is eyeing Papua because of its huge land but we haven't got any more concessions there," he said.
Indonesia, the world's top producer of palm oil -- used in a wide range of products, from soap to biodiesel -- is expected to produce 20.25 million tonnes of palm oil in 2009, up from 18.8 million in 2008, the industry association has estimated.
Annette Cotter, campaign manager for the forests campaign in Greenpeace Southeast Asia, has urged Indonesia palm growers to squeeze far higher yields from existing plantations rather than open up more land. [ID:nJAK381772]
Indonesia yields only about 2 tonnes per hectare from its plantations, or just a third of the 6 to 7 tonnes in countries such as Malaysia with better estate management practices. (Editing by Ed Davies and Valerie Lee)
United Malacca aborts palm oil plan in Indonesia
palmoilhq March 10, 2009 8:01 GMT+8
United Malacca Bhd has aborted its maiden oil palm plantation joint venture in Indonesia after about one year of negotiations.
The company’s chief executive officer Dr Leong Tat Thim said the group decided not to venture into Indonesia “for the time being” after encountering many difficulties with its Indonesian partners.
“We decided to allow the MoU (memorandum of understanding) to develop 20,000ha oil palm plantations and operate oil palm businesses in East Kalimantan to lapse,” Leong told StarBiz via email.
He said United Malacca planned instead to actively explore opportunities in acquiring more landbank and newly established plantations in Malaysia, especially in Sabah.
“For financial year 2009, the major growth area is to develop 809.4ha of heavily logged land in Sabah which will enhance United Malacca’s future earnings prospect,” he said.
Going forward, about 1,619ha of young palms will come into maturity that will increase United Malacca’s crop production, according to Leong.
Main board-listed United Malacca may be a small plantation group given its 14,026ha landbank size, but it has RM400mil in cash.
Of its total landbank, some 6,849ha are located in Sabah while the remaining are in Negri Sembilan, Pahang, Johor and Malacca.
Leong expects some RM30mil in capital expenditure to be allocated this year for land acquisitions, development, upgrading and replacement of machines and vehicles. On its dividend payout, he said “historically, United Malacca has been paying interim and final dividends annually.”
“I believe this tradition will be continued by our board of directors even for financial year ending April 30, 2009 as United Malacca is still making profits,” he added.
United Malacca is among the palm oil producers with lower costs, but prevailing high fertiliser prices will increase its production cost by 10% to 20%. For example, its current crude palm oil (CPO) production cost is about RM900 per tonne but going forward the production cost is expected to range between RM1,000 and RM1,200 per tonne.
The current major challenges facing United Malacca are maintaining the cost of production, increasing productivity and producing palm oil in a sustainable manner, according to Leong.
Other major issues faced by United Malacca and the oil palm industry as a whole, are the heavy taxes and cess payments.
On the CPO price outlook this year, he said: “Should the high CPO stockpile be reduced substantially, then there is the possibility that CPO price can trade above RM2,000 per tonne.”
Leong said the local CPO production this year was expected to be reduced as “more old and unproductive palms are felled to take advantage of the government’s replanting subsidy of RM1,000 per hectare.”
In addition, the effect of local planters delaying fertiliser application and to reduce the rate of fertiliser use per palm tree could result in lower fresh fruit bunches production in the third and fourth quarters, he added.
United Malacca Bhd has aborted its maiden oil palm plantation joint venture in Indonesia after about one year of negotiations.
The company’s chief executive officer Dr Leong Tat Thim said the group decided not to venture into Indonesia “for the time being” after encountering many difficulties with its Indonesian partners.
“We decided to allow the MoU (memorandum of understanding) to develop 20,000ha oil palm plantations and operate oil palm businesses in East Kalimantan to lapse,” Leong told StarBiz via email.
He said United Malacca planned instead to actively explore opportunities in acquiring more landbank and newly established plantations in Malaysia, especially in Sabah.
“For financial year 2009, the major growth area is to develop 809.4ha of heavily logged land in Sabah which will enhance United Malacca’s future earnings prospect,” he said.
Going forward, about 1,619ha of young palms will come into maturity that will increase United Malacca’s crop production, according to Leong.
Main board-listed United Malacca may be a small plantation group given its 14,026ha landbank size, but it has RM400mil in cash.
Of its total landbank, some 6,849ha are located in Sabah while the remaining are in Negri Sembilan, Pahang, Johor and Malacca.
Leong expects some RM30mil in capital expenditure to be allocated this year for land acquisitions, development, upgrading and replacement of machines and vehicles. On its dividend payout, he said “historically, United Malacca has been paying interim and final dividends annually.”
“I believe this tradition will be continued by our board of directors even for financial year ending April 30, 2009 as United Malacca is still making profits,” he added.
United Malacca is among the palm oil producers with lower costs, but prevailing high fertiliser prices will increase its production cost by 10% to 20%. For example, its current crude palm oil (CPO) production cost is about RM900 per tonne but going forward the production cost is expected to range between RM1,000 and RM1,200 per tonne.
The current major challenges facing United Malacca are maintaining the cost of production, increasing productivity and producing palm oil in a sustainable manner, according to Leong.
Other major issues faced by United Malacca and the oil palm industry as a whole, are the heavy taxes and cess payments.
On the CPO price outlook this year, he said: “Should the high CPO stockpile be reduced substantially, then there is the possibility that CPO price can trade above RM2,000 per tonne.”
Leong said the local CPO production this year was expected to be reduced as “more old and unproductive palms are felled to take advantage of the government’s replanting subsidy of RM1,000 per hectare.”
In addition, the effect of local planters delaying fertiliser application and to reduce the rate of fertiliser use per palm tree could result in lower fresh fruit bunches production in the third and fourth quarters, he added.
24 March 2009
Lim增持kretam-la的原因。
Freddy Lim Nyuk Sang目前持有29%的kretam，如果要掌握控制权，他应该增持多一点kretam，但是，kretam是一个重组后的公司，股权都分散到债权人手中了，因此只要有20%就能掌控这间公司。
为了避免触动收购法令，Lim避重就轻，增持了kretam-la，目前他已经是89.77%的kretam-la持有人。
我个人觉得“触犯”不适合用来形容收购法令，因为他都没犯法。
89.77%的kretam-la相等于52,406,969单位，以每年2x1%的利息计算，他每年可以拿到RM104.8万的利息。而，kretam还不具备派息条件，因此有理由相信kretam-la更值得持有（虽然kretam-la常年无挂价交易）。
Lim's transaction record in kretam shares recently
Lim's transaction record in kretam-la in severel years
Lim很小心的把股权维持在20%-29%，也曾卖出kretam，买进kretam-la。
affin原本是最大的kretam-la持有人，但他在2007年底，应该是把kretam-la全数转换了，此后，他又把所有的kretam卖给Lim。
我无法找到Affin的买卖记录，因为他不报告买卖。我本来想，或许他是通过监护人(ABB NOMINEE)持有的，控制公司意愿不高，因此他不能算大股东。但，根据年报所示，他还是大股东，既然是，就不能不报告。
如果kretam-la，于10 sept 2010到期，会不会触动收购法令？
我有60%理由相信会触动收购法令。
当kretam-la转换为kretam时，是不能豁免（exempt）收购法令的，原因是，这些kretam-la是Lim从其他人那里购买的，因此豁免权失效。
但或许我有说错之处，因为在冗长的重组契约里，或许有些隐藏条件可以避免触动收购法令。
只要有充分理由，是可以避免的，例如他以白武士资格寻求豁免，他早早和Affin定下了买卖时间表，事先汇报给SC知道。
他还有一个方法避开，那就是卖给其他人，或把股权存进监护人户头(NOMINEE ACCOUNT)里，使自己的权限降低到SC认为满意的水平，满足disqualify transaction的条件。
但Lim看起来相当的“光明磊落”，不可能会做麻烦事。
由此可见，kretam的股价僵持在一个狭窄的范围了。
原因是，kretam的价值本来就是结构性的(structured investment)，就和bsdreit，CHGS一样。
另一个原因，可能是Lim避免万一触动收购法令，需承当更高的献议。
献议价是根据kretam闭市价定的（不是kretam-la的成本价，也不是RM1），如果，他不小心在10 sept 2010之前的某一天转换股票，那天的闭市价又是RM1.5（全年最高闭市价），那么他就要以这个价钱献议（为了避免他就要赶紧把kretam-la抛售避免触动33%股权）。
但，如果10 sept 2010的前面一整年Lim都没有买进kretam-la，那么他就不必担心10 sept 2010到期的闭市价了，因为证券委员会（SC）会计算献议价。
再谈估值
kretam的估值可分为sandakan estate和tawau estate，可分开估价。
sandakan estate的经营很成功，产量居高不下。
至于tawau estate的成绩，年龄很轻，成绩如何等年报揭晓。
顶着tawau火山灰（Volcanic ash）的光环，tawau estate估值应该不低。虽然我不确定他的tawau estate肥不肥（或有没有火山灰成分）。
如果一切都这么真实，kretam total estate可以值RM6.6亿了，相等于转换债券“稀释后”的每股RM2.72价值。
kretam的债务主要是转换债券，除了这些以外，就只有提炼设施，和卖不出的innosabah securites。
因此土地估值绝对占有kretam holding很大的准确度。
如果kretam被便宜的私有化，是不幸的事。
他的合理面和现实面在缠斗着。
我无法给予这样的公司一个买卖建议。
关于4Q08的亏损，我还没有去找答案。
为了避免触动收购法令，Lim避重就轻，增持了kretam-la，目前他已经是89.77%的kretam-la持有人。
我个人觉得“触犯”不适合用来形容收购法令，因为他都没犯法。
89.77%的kretam-la相等于52,406,969单位，以每年2x1%的利息计算，他每年可以拿到RM104.8万的利息。而，kretam还不具备派息条件，因此有理由相信kretam-la更值得持有（虽然kretam-la常年无挂价交易）。
Lim's transaction record in kretam shares recently
| existing shares | 38,354,565 | 21.2% |
|---|---|---|
| acquired from Affin | 15,589,726 | 8.62% |
| exercise of warrant | 1,691,550 | <1% |
Lim's transaction record in kretam-la in severel years
| existing shares | 100 | 0% |
|---|---|---|
| acquired | 52,406,869 | 89.77% |
Lim很小心的把股权维持在20%-29%，也曾卖出kretam，买进kretam-la。
affin原本是最大的kretam-la持有人，但他在2007年底，应该是把kretam-la全数转换了，此后，他又把所有的kretam卖给Lim。
我无法找到Affin的买卖记录，因为他不报告买卖。我本来想，或许他是通过监护人(ABB NOMINEE)持有的，控制公司意愿不高，因此他不能算大股东。但，根据年报所示，他还是大股东，既然是，就不能不报告。
如果kretam-la，于10 sept 2010到期，会不会触动收购法令？
我有60%理由相信会触动收购法令。
当kretam-la转换为kretam时，是不能豁免（exempt）收购法令的，原因是，这些kretam-la是Lim从其他人那里购买的，因此豁免权失效。
但或许我有说错之处，因为在冗长的重组契约里，或许有些隐藏条件可以避免触动收购法令。
只要有充分理由，是可以避免的，例如他以白武士资格寻求豁免，他早早和Affin定下了买卖时间表，事先汇报给SC知道。
他还有一个方法避开，那就是卖给其他人，或把股权存进监护人户头(NOMINEE ACCOUNT)里，使自己的权限降低到SC认为满意的水平，满足disqualify transaction的条件。
但Lim看起来相当的“光明磊落”，不可能会做麻烦事。
由此可见，kretam的股价僵持在一个狭窄的范围了。
原因是，kretam的价值本来就是结构性的(structured investment)，就和bsdreit，CHGS一样。
另一个原因，可能是Lim避免万一触动收购法令，需承当更高的献议。
献议价是根据kretam闭市价定的（不是kretam-la的成本价，也不是RM1），如果，他不小心在10 sept 2010之前的某一天转换股票，那天的闭市价又是RM1.5（全年最高闭市价），那么他就要以这个价钱献议（为了避免他就要赶紧把kretam-la抛售避免触动33%股权）。
但，如果10 sept 2010的前面一整年Lim都没有买进kretam-la，那么他就不必担心10 sept 2010到期的闭市价了，因为证券委员会（SC）会计算献议价。
再谈估值
kretam的估值可分为sandakan estate和tawau estate，可分开估价。
sandakan estate的经营很成功，产量居高不下。
至于tawau estate的成绩，年龄很轻，成绩如何等年报揭晓。
顶着tawau火山灰（Volcanic ash）的光环，tawau estate估值应该不低。虽然我不确定他的tawau estate肥不肥（或有没有火山灰成分）。
如果一切都这么真实，kretam total estate可以值RM6.6亿了，相等于转换债券“稀释后”的每股RM2.72价值。
kretam的债务主要是转换债券，除了这些以外，就只有提炼设施，和卖不出的innosabah securites。
因此土地估值绝对占有kretam holding很大的准确度。
如果kretam被便宜的私有化，是不幸的事。
他的合理面和现实面在缠斗着。
我无法给予这样的公司一个买卖建议。
关于4Q08的亏损，我还没有去找答案。
23 March 2009
用利率角度感官商品税
如果你把出，入口税，暴利税，当成利率政策来看，你会发现他们是有共同性质的。
棕油和豆油的印度入口税从60%掉到0%，印尼的出口税从20%掉到0%的。也可以说，商品价格会因为制度改变，从新洗牌。
当商品越垫越高时，税务也越垫越高，津贴也越垫越高(例子是石油津贴)，当这种不平衡无法支持，泡沫因此形成，回归到原点。
棕油和豆油的印度入口税从60%掉到0%，印尼的出口税从20%掉到0%的。也可以说，商品价格会因为制度改变，从新洗牌。
当商品越垫越高时，税务也越垫越高，津贴也越垫越高(例子是石油津贴)，当这种不平衡无法支持，泡沫因此形成，回归到原点。
建议申明和买卖标准
建议申明
在此部落里，错误的买卖讯号不计其数，就以kretam为例好了，它在RM1.4时我推荐买入，它在RM0.9时我建议卖出，结果都错。如果你照我推荐操作，财产早已败光了。
但我不能道歉，因为我不想助长投资建议的责任风险，“买卖自负”的概念，早已根植在投资者心中。如果你因为“我看起来像专家而相信我”，这也是你的错误判断。
很多部落客常散步谣言而被告，败坏风气的不实报导不计其数，我承认这些都要以立法来正规。
虽然我再再申明了责任，但如果有一天我不小心错置了数据，我还是要以“破坏社会和公众利益”的罪名被提控的。但如果我的数据是引述自错误的资源，我就没有罪，因为那是资源的问题。当然我说的有点严重了，因为到目前为止，好像还没有人因这样的形式被人告。
买卖标准
当你算出一间公司的合理价时，他是不能反映在股价上的，这是很正常的。
example 1
如果cpo长期上涨了12%，plantation index上涨了20%，那么，cepat和asiatic也会发生同步效应，上涨20%的。
example 2
实际上，我没有帮助到你什么，但你会因为我建议卖出asiatic而怀疑我，会因为我建议买进cepat而感谢我。
你应该感谢的是cpo的上涨。
这也是同步效应的可恨地方，你不禁会问自己：“为什么便宜的不去追涨(catch up)贵的，难道是我的计算错误？”。说穿，catch-up effect是骗人的。
根据table2的例子，如果cepat的股价是RM0.9，asiatic的股价是RM4.5，在赢面上，你应该根据table1的base price增加asiatic，持减cepat。但通常我还是会很理性的告诉你，cepat的价格比asiatic更吸引人，因为这是我的买卖标准。除非有例外声明“同步上涨潜能”。
这种同步效应很少有例外，即使是拥有RM2现金的sbagan，他也是从RM3.5同步下跌的，他难免也要响应大市下跌。如果说他下跌到RM1.6也不奇怪（RM1.6肯定有RM1.6的因素）。
股价的形成，肯定有他特定的形成原因，很多很多(beta,company image,dividend,炒作...)，讲不完。
请注意，cepat的合理价是随意设想的。
在此部落里，错误的买卖讯号不计其数，就以kretam为例好了，它在RM1.4时我推荐买入，它在RM0.9时我建议卖出，结果都错。如果你照我推荐操作，财产早已败光了。
但我不能道歉，因为我不想助长投资建议的责任风险，“买卖自负”的概念，早已根植在投资者心中。如果你因为“我看起来像专家而相信我”，这也是你的错误判断。
很多部落客常散步谣言而被告，败坏风气的不实报导不计其数，我承认这些都要以立法来正规。
虽然我再再申明了责任，但如果有一天我不小心错置了数据，我还是要以“破坏社会和公众利益”的罪名被提控的。但如果我的数据是引述自错误的资源，我就没有罪，因为那是资源的问题。当然我说的有点严重了，因为到目前为止，好像还没有人因这样的形式被人告。
买卖标准
当你算出一间公司的合理价时，他是不能反映在股价上的，这是很正常的。
example 1
| stock | my fair price | actual price | recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|
| cepat | 1 | 0.72 | buy |
| asiatic | 3 | 4.14 | sell |
如果cpo长期上涨了12%，plantation index上涨了20%，那么，cepat和asiatic也会发生同步效应，上涨20%的。
example 2
| stock | my fair price | actual price | recommendation | your feedback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| cepat | 1.2 | 0.864 | buy | 谢谢 |
| asiatic | 3.6 | 4.968 | sell | 怀疑 |
实际上，我没有帮助到你什么，但你会因为我建议卖出asiatic而怀疑我，会因为我建议买进cepat而感谢我。
你应该感谢的是cpo的上涨。
这也是同步效应的可恨地方，你不禁会问自己：“为什么便宜的不去追涨(catch up)贵的，难道是我的计算错误？”。说穿，catch-up effect是骗人的。
根据table2的例子，如果cepat的股价是RM0.9，asiatic的股价是RM4.5，在赢面上，你应该根据table1的base price增加asiatic，持减cepat。但通常我还是会很理性的告诉你，cepat的价格比asiatic更吸引人，因为这是我的买卖标准。除非有例外声明“同步上涨潜能”。
这种同步效应很少有例外，即使是拥有RM2现金的sbagan，他也是从RM3.5同步下跌的，他难免也要响应大市下跌。如果说他下跌到RM1.6也不奇怪（RM1.6肯定有RM1.6的因素）。
股价的形成，肯定有他特定的形成原因，很多很多(beta,company image,dividend,炒作...)，讲不完。
请注意，cepat的合理价是随意设想的。
22 March 2009
Oil Palm Plantations threat Indonesia’s forests and peatlands
blogger remark:
widjaja family is one of the world biggest pulp （paper）producer, this family can trace its history to the smoke havoc from Riau province,indonesia.
博主注明：
widjaja家族是全球主要纸业生产者，是印尼廖内省烟雾问题制造者。
source
source
One of the most menaces to Indonesia’s forests is the ‘gold rush’ for new oil palm plantations, caused by the increasing global demand for palm oil for food, soaps, cosmetics and bio fuels. Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer has the fastest deforestation rate of any major forested country.
Forest destruction is responsible for about one fifth of global greenhouse gas emissions. Indonesia is widely seen as the world’s third –largest emitter of greenhouse gases after China and United States, a major contributor to climate change, by virtue of the pace of its deforestation.
One of the big companies that has been blaming for destruction of the country’s forest is Sinar Mas Group. Greenpeace’s investigation proves Sinar Mas had cleared carbon-rich peatland, a key source of greenhouse gases when burnt to a depth greater than three metres which is illegal according Indonesian law.
Sinar Mas Group is Indonesia’s largest palm oil company which has about 125,000 hectares of palm oil plantations, and boasts of ‘aggressive plantation expansion’. It has grown its palm oil plantation area by over a third in the last two years and has further expansion plans in Kalimantan (in Lake Sentarum National Park in Borneo’s West Kalimantan) and the largely untouched provinces of Papua (near Papuan Town of Lereh), where it plans to develop a rainforest area of up to 2.8 million hectares. Judging by past operations and known concessions that Sinar Mas holds, the vast majority of future expansion is likely to involve deforestation, some on peatlands and in the habitats of the critically endangered orang-utans.
Sinar Mas is also heavily involved in the pulp and paper industry through its holding company, Asia Pulp & Paper (APP). APP has extensive plantation areas on peatlands and in 2007 was found to be buying illegal timber originating from a peatland area in Riau Province, Sumatra. The peat in this area was more than 4 metres deep, which is illegal to develop, clear or drain under Indonesian law. It is also illegal to buy timber from such areas. Investigations by WWF in 2007 revealed illegal logging by APP in Jambi Province, Sumatra.
Sinar Mas exported over 1 million tonnes of palm oil products in 2007. India and China accounted for nearly half of all exports, while 200,000 tonnes were shipped to Italy, the Netherlands, Germany, Spain and the UK. Sinar Mas supplies Nestlé and Wilmar, and according to data published in November 2007, its customers include Unilever, Proctor &
Gamble, Henkel, Pizza Hut, McDonalds, Burger King, Danone, AAK and Cargill.
On the island of Sumatra, millions of hectares of peatland forests have already been cleared, or are earmarked to be converted into oil palm and pulp and paper plantations by that company. APP is the largest holder of concessions in Riau Province, with over 800,000 hectares. Riau’s Kampar Peninsular contains some of the largest remaining intact peatland forests in Sumatra, which are currently being drained and cleared for industrial expansion by companies including APP. Kampar consists entirely of a single peat dome, with peat depths mostly over 10 metres — extremely deep, forming an enormous store of carbon. As the peat is thoroughly waterlogged, with water content up to 90% or more, drainage and plantation development in one area of the landscape will have widespread detrimental impacts on the remaining natural forest.
The development of APP’s concessions will lead to huge greenhouse gas emissions through the degradation of the carbon-rich peat, and also to massive biodiversity losses. The Kampar peninsular is home to a rich biodiversity, including the Sumatran elephant, and is a last stronghold of the Sumatran tiger.
Greenpeace has been lobbying the Indonesia’s main logging companies and government for immediate halt on the expansion of oil palm plantations which are blamed for the loss of huge areas of what is left of Indonesia’s unspoiled forest.
widjaja family is one of the world biggest pulp （paper）producer, this family can trace its history to the smoke havoc from Riau province,indonesia.
博主注明：
widjaja家族是全球主要纸业生产者，是印尼廖内省烟雾问题制造者。
source
source
One of the most menaces to Indonesia’s forests is the ‘gold rush’ for new oil palm plantations, caused by the increasing global demand for palm oil for food, soaps, cosmetics and bio fuels. Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer has the fastest deforestation rate of any major forested country.
Forest destruction is responsible for about one fifth of global greenhouse gas emissions. Indonesia is widely seen as the world’s third –largest emitter of greenhouse gases after China and United States, a major contributor to climate change, by virtue of the pace of its deforestation.
One of the big companies that has been blaming for destruction of the country’s forest is Sinar Mas Group. Greenpeace’s investigation proves Sinar Mas had cleared carbon-rich peatland, a key source of greenhouse gases when burnt to a depth greater than three metres which is illegal according Indonesian law.
Sinar Mas Group is Indonesia’s largest palm oil company which has about 125,000 hectares of palm oil plantations, and boasts of ‘aggressive plantation expansion’. It has grown its palm oil plantation area by over a third in the last two years and has further expansion plans in Kalimantan (in Lake Sentarum National Park in Borneo’s West Kalimantan) and the largely untouched provinces of Papua (near Papuan Town of Lereh), where it plans to develop a rainforest area of up to 2.8 million hectares. Judging by past operations and known concessions that Sinar Mas holds, the vast majority of future expansion is likely to involve deforestation, some on peatlands and in the habitats of the critically endangered orang-utans.
Sinar Mas is also heavily involved in the pulp and paper industry through its holding company, Asia Pulp & Paper (APP). APP has extensive plantation areas on peatlands and in 2007 was found to be buying illegal timber originating from a peatland area in Riau Province, Sumatra. The peat in this area was more than 4 metres deep, which is illegal to develop, clear or drain under Indonesian law. It is also illegal to buy timber from such areas. Investigations by WWF in 2007 revealed illegal logging by APP in Jambi Province, Sumatra.
Sinar Mas exported over 1 million tonnes of palm oil products in 2007. India and China accounted for nearly half of all exports, while 200,000 tonnes were shipped to Italy, the Netherlands, Germany, Spain and the UK. Sinar Mas supplies Nestlé and Wilmar, and according to data published in November 2007, its customers include Unilever, Proctor &
Gamble, Henkel, Pizza Hut, McDonalds, Burger King, Danone, AAK and Cargill.
On the island of Sumatra, millions of hectares of peatland forests have already been cleared, or are earmarked to be converted into oil palm and pulp and paper plantations by that company. APP is the largest holder of concessions in Riau Province, with over 800,000 hectares. Riau’s Kampar Peninsular contains some of the largest remaining intact peatland forests in Sumatra, which are currently being drained and cleared for industrial expansion by companies including APP. Kampar consists entirely of a single peat dome, with peat depths mostly over 10 metres — extremely deep, forming an enormous store of carbon. As the peat is thoroughly waterlogged, with water content up to 90% or more, drainage and plantation development in one area of the landscape will have widespread detrimental impacts on the remaining natural forest.
The development of APP’s concessions will lead to huge greenhouse gas emissions through the degradation of the carbon-rich peat, and also to massive biodiversity losses. The Kampar peninsular is home to a rich biodiversity, including the Sumatran elephant, and is a last stronghold of the Sumatran tiger.
Greenpeace has been lobbying the Indonesia’s main logging companies and government for immediate halt on the expansion of oil palm plantations which are blamed for the loss of huge areas of what is left of Indonesia’s unspoiled forest.
20 March 2009
烂地公司。
甘榜企业大亨Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar常以低廉的价格购买烂地（泥炭和红树沼泽林），这包括最近“救救海马行动”中扮演吃重角色的tanjong pelepas港口发展计划。
tradewinds plantation近几年也耗资了几亿令吉购买这类的土地，其中包括了Cbip和Twsplnt组成50:50的joint venture，这些收购十足是赔钱货，除非，cpo能在回到RM4500的水平。
虽然这项收购只用了RM10，但他必须买下债务和注入资金发展。
这些地也不便宜。
价钱不重要，重点在，谁玩了猫腻，谁花谁的钱。
这也是twsplnt从RM4.2下跌至RM1.45的原因了。
别以为它跌得最多就有机会反弹，“深陷泥沼”的风险是很大的。
这不是卖出建议，因为我不知道他的合理价，即使给你算到，股价在50%-200%波动都算正常。
例如，万一算出的合理价是RM1，他的股价在RM0.5-RM2都是正常。
股价的事就不必去想了。
这是早期证券行给予的合理价：Rm5.25 [source] 。
举这例子，并不是想质疑分析员的专业，持有这种质疑心态，有时是很幼稚的。
也因为，这个合理价在当时是非常合理的。
虽然同样来自Sarawak的SOP也有泥炭地，但SOP可以把FFB产量维持在20，实属侥幸。
以上言论并不表示所有sarawak estate都是烂地。因为sarawak的种植起步最晚，每年以30:70(未成熟/成熟)的步伐推进，提炼厂也不能发挥最好的状态，所以说sarawak-based company未必全是烂的。估计必须等到2011年才能看到答案。
tradewinds plantation近几年也耗资了几亿令吉购买这类的土地，其中包括了Cbip和Twsplnt组成50:50的joint venture，这些收购十足是赔钱货，除非，cpo能在回到RM4500的水平。
虽然这项收购只用了RM10，但他必须买下债务和注入资金发展。
这些地也不便宜。
价钱不重要，重点在，谁玩了猫腻，谁花谁的钱。
这也是twsplnt从RM4.2下跌至RM1.45的原因了。
别以为它跌得最多就有机会反弹，“深陷泥沼”的风险是很大的。
这不是卖出建议，因为我不知道他的合理价，即使给你算到，股价在50%-200%波动都算正常。
例如，万一算出的合理价是RM1，他的股价在RM0.5-RM2都是正常。
股价的事就不必去想了。
这是早期证券行给予的合理价：Rm5.25 [source] 。
举这例子，并不是想质疑分析员的专业，持有这种质疑心态，有时是很幼稚的。
也因为，这个合理价在当时是非常合理的。
虽然同样来自Sarawak的SOP也有泥炭地，但SOP可以把FFB产量维持在20，实属侥幸。
以上言论并不表示所有sarawak estate都是烂地。因为sarawak的种植起步最晚，每年以30:70(未成熟/成熟)的步伐推进，提炼厂也不能发挥最好的状态，所以说sarawak-based company未必全是烂的。估计必须等到2011年才能看到答案。
欧美该不该谴责马印的环保问题？从碳排放谈起。
在欧洲也出现过超市禁止售卖棕油的记录。但，根据研究，如果把部分的棕油，菜油，豆油混合，可以调和出更均衡的食用油，如今想禁都难了。
前任首相马哈迪一致强力谴责欧美人士才是制造污染的主力，这不全然是对的。
如果从森林，土壤，土地循环使用的角度来看，温带国家砍伐森林的“罪”，要比热带国家轻很多。原因是热带雨林比温带森林更能降低温度和更有效固碳。
也有科学指出，颜色越深的植物反而会带来温室上升。我们不管他是不是自圆其说的阴谋。
Sarawak州的泥炭土问题，也是油棕业者在该州裹足不前的原因。因为泥炭土不能再循环使用，在该地段建筑也会遭受下陷的风险。
邻国印尼佯称，森林砍伐是为了发展油棕业，但其实，在数以百万公顷计，被砍伐的森林中，只有10%不到的森林被转为油棕业，另外的90%名义上是种植地，但实为空地。说穿，他们是为了木材。
在不少网民常以“马哈迪式”的措词反驳欧美人士持有双重标准时，其实他们已经沦为政客私器。
前任首相马哈迪一致强力谴责欧美人士才是制造污染的主力，这不全然是对的。
如果从森林，土壤，土地循环使用的角度来看，温带国家砍伐森林的“罪”，要比热带国家轻很多。原因是热带雨林比温带森林更能降低温度和更有效固碳。
也有科学指出，颜色越深的植物反而会带来温室上升。我们不管他是不是自圆其说的阴谋。
Sarawak州的泥炭土问题，也是油棕业者在该州裹足不前的原因。因为泥炭土不能再循环使用，在该地段建筑也会遭受下陷的风险。
邻国印尼佯称，森林砍伐是为了发展油棕业，但其实，在数以百万公顷计，被砍伐的森林中，只有10%不到的森林被转为油棕业，另外的90%名义上是种植地，但实为空地。说穿，他们是为了木材。
在不少网民常以“马哈迪式”的措词反驳欧美人士持有双重标准时，其实他们已经沦为政客私器。
19 March 2009
Still fertile - Chemical Company of Malaysia has been enjoying a fine run of late. Will the good times last?
AsiaViews, Edition: 52/V/Jan/2009
IT HAS BEEN A GOOD YEAR THUS far for Chemical Company of Malaysia Bhd (CCM), driven by strong growth from its fertilizer division. However, will the good times last? With 80% of its fertiliser products driven by the oil palm sector, the health of this sector going forward is crucial to the division and the prospect of the group as a whole. The oil palm sector is now going through challenging times as crude palm oil (CPO) prices are now in a cyclical downturn. However, analysts say that the adverse impact to CCM is still expected to be manageable, given the well-diversified business model of the group.
A leading industrial conglomerate
The group has been in business for a long time, to say the least. CCM was incorporated as Chemical Company of Malaysia in 1963 by Imperial Chemical Company Plc (ICI) of the United Kingdom. It was initially set up to manufacture chlor-alkali products and high-grade compound fertilizers. In 1995, the company broadened its horizon to include pharmaceuticals and hospital services. At present, its main core businesses are categorized into three main divisions, namely,
(i) fertilisers,
(ii) chemicals, and
(iii) pharmaceuticals
CCM’s involvement in chemicals is via its 80%-owned subsidiary CCM Chemicals Sdn Bhd (CCMC). The division’s principal activities include the manufacture and marketing of chlor-alkali and other chemical products with three manufacturing facilities located in Shah Alam, Port Klang and Pasir Gudang, producing and formulating various chemical products. The two major products produced by CCMC are chlorine and caustic soda.
Chlorine products are typically used for water treatment and in plastic manufacturing while caustic soda is used in the manufacture of soap powder, alumina, detergents and bleaching products as well as in the pulp and paper industry. In 2007, the chemicals division contributed around 32.7% of group revenue. Riding on its established position in Malaysia, CCMC is progressively penetrating the Asean market by setting up offices in Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines.
The group’s pharmaceuticals division, on the other hand, comprises several subsidiaries such as CCM Pharma Sdn Bhd, UPHA Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Sdn Bhd and CCM Duopharma. This division is mainly involved in manufacturing and marketing pharmaceutical and healthcare products. Around 80% of its pharmaceutical products are ethical products and the remaining 20%, OTC products. Currently, the division exports to more than 20 countries worldwide, with Asian countries such as Cambodia, Indonesia, Hong Kong and Singapore being the major export markets. In 2007, the pharmaceutical division contributed 15.6% to group revenue.
The fertilizer division, which is CCM’s biggest revenue contributor, contributed around 51.9% of the group’s revenue in 2007. It is involved in this business segment via its 50.1%-owned CCM Fertilizers Sdn Bhd (CCMF), which is the largest manufacturer and trader of fertilizers in Malaysia with a 30% share of the local market. It has been reported that CCMF is the only manufacturer of compound fertilizers in the country. At present, CCMF has only one fully operated plant in Shah Alam with an annual rated capacity of 280,000 tons. However, it has three plants under construction currently in Bintulu, Medan and Lahad Datu. Upon completion, CCMF will have a combined manufacturing capacity of 670,000 tons of fertilizers per annum, making it one of the largest producers of compound fertilizers in Asean.
Prospects generally bright
According to the Department of Statistics, between 2003 and 2007, the sales value of chemicals in the country increased at an average annual rate of 20.5% to RM157.9 billion in 2007. Over the same period, the annual export value of chemicals rose 15.3% to RM36.4 billion in 2007. CCM’s pharmaceutical division is expected to grow steadily, supported by rising healthcare expenditure and growing awareness of healthcare and disease prevention among the population. The prospect of fertilizer usage is said to be sustainable.
According to the International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA), Malaysia is ranked as the world’s 10th largest fertilizer consumer, accounting for around 1.1% of the world’s total consumption in 2006. Not surprisingly, around 72% of the fertilizer consumption in Malaysia is used by the oil palm sector followed by other agriculture sectors such as rice and fruits and vegetable crops, which accounted for around 8% and 2.8% of total consumption respectively. In 2006, potassium fertilizer was the most commonly used fertilizer in Malaysia, making up around 56% of the total consumption followed by nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer, which made up another 30% and 13.6% of the total consumption respectively. Based on the latest data, fertilizer consumption in Malaysia grew at around 8.4% p.a. between 1997 and 2006.
Given that all its divisions are one of the largest players in their respective segments with a dominant market share, local research house OSK Research believes that CCM will remain a market leader in its businesses given its strong competitive advantage and vast experience and in-depth knowledge. It adds that a strong market position means CCM has strong bargaining power in terms of securing raw materials, selling prices and economies of scale. The emergence of Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB) as the group’s largest shareholder has also strengthened its profile, particularly its fertilizer division, given PNB’s substantial shareholdings in plantation estates in Malaysia.
… but affected now by CPO price down-cycle
However, its profitable fertilizer division is under threat from the downtrend in CPO prices at the moment. OSK Research says that farmers generally buy fertilizers on credit and repay only when their harvest is sold. Hence, the price those farmers expect to receive for their harvest influences their decision to invest in fertilizers to increase yield and improve crop quality. Studies have apparently shown that the prices of agricultural commodities have a greater influence on farmers’ decision to spend on fertilizers than do the price of fertilizers themselves.
The rising market price of agricultural commodities tends to push up fertilizer prices rather than the contrary (refer Chart 5) where fertilizer prices move in tandem with agricultural commodity prices but with a time lag. This has been proven by the recent rise in food/soft commodities prices due to a global food shortage, which has pushed fertilizer prices to an all-time high. Falling CPO prices mean oil palm planters are likely to scale back their purchases of fertilizers going forward.
Expecting lower growth going forward
In Malaysia, firm CPO prices have been the main driver for the demand of premium fertilisers, namely, compound fertilizers, as smallholders and oil palm plantations attempt to raise yields to capitalize on the crop’s high prices. As a result, compound fertilizer sales in Malaysia generally move in tandem with CPO price movements, although with some time lag. In contrast, oil palm planters tend to switch to cheaper and lower quality fertilizer, such as straight and mixed fertilizer, when CPO prices are low, as a cost-cutting measure, considering that fertilizer cost accounts for around 30% to 40% of total planting and maintenance cost. In a worst-case scenario, OSK Research says it does not rule out the likelihood that oil palm planters will either defer or cancel their fertilizer purchases, which would hurt CCM’s earnings.
Note that although timely application of the right fertilizer is still important for yield, the research house believes that planters are still likely to cut their fertilizer application for the next few quarters based on the following two possible reasons.
Firstly, the dramatic drop in CPO prices over a very short period is considered the worst the players have seen, catching them unprepared in adjusting their production costs and maintaining margins. Although the current CPO price of around RM1,500/ton is still well above the lowest price in 2001 of RM750/ton, production costs have over the years increased significantly as well. This has caused planters to opt to cut their fertilizer cost by reducing fertilizer application since this is seen as the easier way to cut production cost.
Secondly, given the strong CPO prices from 2006 up to earlier this year, planters have increased their fertilizer application quite significantly over this period to capitalize on the high CPO prices, which has resulted in nutrient-rich soil. In the event the planters decide to cut their fertilizer application significantly for the next few quarters, the nutrients in the soil are still seen as sufficient to sustain the growth of oil palm trees for the next few months with a minimal impact on yield.
Under such circumstances, OSK Research has reduced its average compound fertilizer prices for 2009 from RM1,800 per ton to RM1,400 per ton. The research house has also lowered its forecast capacity utilization rate assumption for CCM in 2009 from 100% to 80% after factoring in a slowdown in demand for compound fertilizer. It was reported that fertilizer consumption in Malaysia dropped by around 23% from 1998 to 2001 during the previous down-cycle in CPO prices.
Still solid nonetheless
Even if the immediate outlook of its fertilizer division seems gloomy, OSK Research believes that CCM group’s earnings as a whole will still be cushioned by its chemicals division, mainly driven by a newly acquired subsidiary, Innovative Group. It also expects the group’s pharmaceutical division to remain resilient despite the economic slowdown, given the nature of its business even though the division’s 2008 earnings has been somewhat disappointing due to margins contraction driven by higher material and production costs. However, the division’s margins are expected to recover in 1QFY09 as most of its raw material prices have come down from their peak in tandem with receding oil prices.
Conclusion
Although there might be some concerns over the liquidity of CCM shares, OSK Research believes that CCM is still a good choice for long-term investors. It adds that the group has an attractive dividend payout guideline of 75% of its net profit, which is sustainable given that it had historically managed to pay its dividends as guided. The research house has a ‘BUY’ rating on CCM with a fair value of RM2.78.
Malaysian Business, 01 January 2009
blogger remark : the target price was downgraded to RM2.24 (neutral) ,on February 26, 2009
IT HAS BEEN A GOOD YEAR THUS far for Chemical Company of Malaysia Bhd (CCM), driven by strong growth from its fertilizer division. However, will the good times last? With 80% of its fertiliser products driven by the oil palm sector, the health of this sector going forward is crucial to the division and the prospect of the group as a whole. The oil palm sector is now going through challenging times as crude palm oil (CPO) prices are now in a cyclical downturn. However, analysts say that the adverse impact to CCM is still expected to be manageable, given the well-diversified business model of the group.
A leading industrial conglomerate
The group has been in business for a long time, to say the least. CCM was incorporated as Chemical Company of Malaysia in 1963 by Imperial Chemical Company Plc (ICI) of the United Kingdom. It was initially set up to manufacture chlor-alkali products and high-grade compound fertilizers. In 1995, the company broadened its horizon to include pharmaceuticals and hospital services. At present, its main core businesses are categorized into three main divisions, namely,
(i) fertilisers,
(ii) chemicals, and
(iii) pharmaceuticals
CCM’s involvement in chemicals is via its 80%-owned subsidiary CCM Chemicals Sdn Bhd (CCMC). The division’s principal activities include the manufacture and marketing of chlor-alkali and other chemical products with three manufacturing facilities located in Shah Alam, Port Klang and Pasir Gudang, producing and formulating various chemical products. The two major products produced by CCMC are chlorine and caustic soda.
Chlorine products are typically used for water treatment and in plastic manufacturing while caustic soda is used in the manufacture of soap powder, alumina, detergents and bleaching products as well as in the pulp and paper industry. In 2007, the chemicals division contributed around 32.7% of group revenue. Riding on its established position in Malaysia, CCMC is progressively penetrating the Asean market by setting up offices in Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines.
The group’s pharmaceuticals division, on the other hand, comprises several subsidiaries such as CCM Pharma Sdn Bhd, UPHA Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Sdn Bhd and CCM Duopharma. This division is mainly involved in manufacturing and marketing pharmaceutical and healthcare products. Around 80% of its pharmaceutical products are ethical products and the remaining 20%, OTC products. Currently, the division exports to more than 20 countries worldwide, with Asian countries such as Cambodia, Indonesia, Hong Kong and Singapore being the major export markets. In 2007, the pharmaceutical division contributed 15.6% to group revenue.
The fertilizer division, which is CCM’s biggest revenue contributor, contributed around 51.9% of the group’s revenue in 2007. It is involved in this business segment via its 50.1%-owned CCM Fertilizers Sdn Bhd (CCMF), which is the largest manufacturer and trader of fertilizers in Malaysia with a 30% share of the local market. It has been reported that CCMF is the only manufacturer of compound fertilizers in the country. At present, CCMF has only one fully operated plant in Shah Alam with an annual rated capacity of 280,000 tons. However, it has three plants under construction currently in Bintulu, Medan and Lahad Datu. Upon completion, CCMF will have a combined manufacturing capacity of 670,000 tons of fertilizers per annum, making it one of the largest producers of compound fertilizers in Asean.
Prospects generally bright
According to the Department of Statistics, between 2003 and 2007, the sales value of chemicals in the country increased at an average annual rate of 20.5% to RM157.9 billion in 2007. Over the same period, the annual export value of chemicals rose 15.3% to RM36.4 billion in 2007. CCM’s pharmaceutical division is expected to grow steadily, supported by rising healthcare expenditure and growing awareness of healthcare and disease prevention among the population. The prospect of fertilizer usage is said to be sustainable.
According to the International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA), Malaysia is ranked as the world’s 10th largest fertilizer consumer, accounting for around 1.1% of the world’s total consumption in 2006. Not surprisingly, around 72% of the fertilizer consumption in Malaysia is used by the oil palm sector followed by other agriculture sectors such as rice and fruits and vegetable crops, which accounted for around 8% and 2.8% of total consumption respectively. In 2006, potassium fertilizer was the most commonly used fertilizer in Malaysia, making up around 56% of the total consumption followed by nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer, which made up another 30% and 13.6% of the total consumption respectively. Based on the latest data, fertilizer consumption in Malaysia grew at around 8.4% p.a. between 1997 and 2006.
Given that all its divisions are one of the largest players in their respective segments with a dominant market share, local research house OSK Research believes that CCM will remain a market leader in its businesses given its strong competitive advantage and vast experience and in-depth knowledge. It adds that a strong market position means CCM has strong bargaining power in terms of securing raw materials, selling prices and economies of scale. The emergence of Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB) as the group’s largest shareholder has also strengthened its profile, particularly its fertilizer division, given PNB’s substantial shareholdings in plantation estates in Malaysia.
… but affected now by CPO price down-cycle
However, its profitable fertilizer division is under threat from the downtrend in CPO prices at the moment. OSK Research says that farmers generally buy fertilizers on credit and repay only when their harvest is sold. Hence, the price those farmers expect to receive for their harvest influences their decision to invest in fertilizers to increase yield and improve crop quality. Studies have apparently shown that the prices of agricultural commodities have a greater influence on farmers’ decision to spend on fertilizers than do the price of fertilizers themselves.
The rising market price of agricultural commodities tends to push up fertilizer prices rather than the contrary (refer Chart 5) where fertilizer prices move in tandem with agricultural commodity prices but with a time lag. This has been proven by the recent rise in food/soft commodities prices due to a global food shortage, which has pushed fertilizer prices to an all-time high. Falling CPO prices mean oil palm planters are likely to scale back their purchases of fertilizers going forward.
Expecting lower growth going forward
In Malaysia, firm CPO prices have been the main driver for the demand of premium fertilisers, namely, compound fertilizers, as smallholders and oil palm plantations attempt to raise yields to capitalize on the crop’s high prices. As a result, compound fertilizer sales in Malaysia generally move in tandem with CPO price movements, although with some time lag. In contrast, oil palm planters tend to switch to cheaper and lower quality fertilizer, such as straight and mixed fertilizer, when CPO prices are low, as a cost-cutting measure, considering that fertilizer cost accounts for around 30% to 40% of total planting and maintenance cost. In a worst-case scenario, OSK Research says it does not rule out the likelihood that oil palm planters will either defer or cancel their fertilizer purchases, which would hurt CCM’s earnings.
Note that although timely application of the right fertilizer is still important for yield, the research house believes that planters are still likely to cut their fertilizer application for the next few quarters based on the following two possible reasons.
Firstly, the dramatic drop in CPO prices over a very short period is considered the worst the players have seen, catching them unprepared in adjusting their production costs and maintaining margins. Although the current CPO price of around RM1,500/ton is still well above the lowest price in 2001 of RM750/ton, production costs have over the years increased significantly as well. This has caused planters to opt to cut their fertilizer cost by reducing fertilizer application since this is seen as the easier way to cut production cost.
Secondly, given the strong CPO prices from 2006 up to earlier this year, planters have increased their fertilizer application quite significantly over this period to capitalize on the high CPO prices, which has resulted in nutrient-rich soil. In the event the planters decide to cut their fertilizer application significantly for the next few quarters, the nutrients in the soil are still seen as sufficient to sustain the growth of oil palm trees for the next few months with a minimal impact on yield.
Under such circumstances, OSK Research has reduced its average compound fertilizer prices for 2009 from RM1,800 per ton to RM1,400 per ton. The research house has also lowered its forecast capacity utilization rate assumption for CCM in 2009 from 100% to 80% after factoring in a slowdown in demand for compound fertilizer. It was reported that fertilizer consumption in Malaysia dropped by around 23% from 1998 to 2001 during the previous down-cycle in CPO prices.
Still solid nonetheless
Even if the immediate outlook of its fertilizer division seems gloomy, OSK Research believes that CCM group’s earnings as a whole will still be cushioned by its chemicals division, mainly driven by a newly acquired subsidiary, Innovative Group. It also expects the group’s pharmaceutical division to remain resilient despite the economic slowdown, given the nature of its business even though the division’s 2008 earnings has been somewhat disappointing due to margins contraction driven by higher material and production costs. However, the division’s margins are expected to recover in 1QFY09 as most of its raw material prices have come down from their peak in tandem with receding oil prices.
Conclusion
Although there might be some concerns over the liquidity of CCM shares, OSK Research believes that CCM is still a good choice for long-term investors. It adds that the group has an attractive dividend payout guideline of 75% of its net profit, which is sustainable given that it had historically managed to pay its dividends as guided. The research house has a ‘BUY’ rating on CCM with a fair value of RM2.78.
Malaysian Business, 01 January 2009
blogger remark : the target price was downgraded to RM2.24 (neutral) ,on February 26, 2009
16 March 2009
分析：亚洲棕榈油表现优于豆油的好景恐不长
博主评：如果如预料中的下跌来临，期市，股市，汇市都会一起下跌，这是我观察来的，当股市跌时，棕榈油期货也跌，马币也跌，后果就是棕榈油期货和豆油期货的价格差(gap)会再度拉大，这是比较担忧的。
from reuter.cn
2009年 3月 11日 星期三 06:51 BJT
* 棕榈油与豆油价差缩窄至一年来最低
* 收获季产出达高峰但需求走软,将打压价格
* 马来西亚行业大会将公布价格预测
记者 Niluksi Koswanage;编译 徐伟
路透吉隆坡3月10日电---亚洲棕榈油期货与美国豆油期货去年走势几乎同步,但随着库存减少,前者自今年1月以来已摆脱豆油颓势,两者价差缩窄至一年来最低.
不过,对许多交易员而言,这是令人忧心的信号.他们认为棕榈油价格已到了向下修正的时机,因为中国与印度等主要进口国在建立大量库存後减缓进口、市季节性收获高峰、同时自2007年以来逐步降至低点的生产商库存开始增加.
一马来西亚种植主称,"未来六个月内,棕榈油价格大致介于1,200-1,400马币,因为价格上涨缩窄了与豆油的价差."
毛棕榈油期货自1月以来已大涨23%,同期美国豆油期货则下跌8%,两合约价差收窄至每吨150美元以来,为去年8月高峰时的三分之一.
在欧洲,棕榈油较豆油溢价6%,1月初时还为折价2.5%.
浏览棕榈油,豆油与柴油价格相关走势,请点击(https://customers.reuters.com/d/graphics/CMD_PLMSY0309.gif)
尽管南美乾旱引发忧虑,阿根廷农民与政府在定价问题陷入僵局,但因股市下跌、美元走强、以及原油价格疲软之故,美国指标食用油价格持续回落.
主要消费国中国持有大量的食用油储备、47美元的原油价格令棕榈油生化柴油业务无利可图、再加上夏季是东南亚收获季节的开始,因此棕榈油库存将迅速增长.
本周在马来西亚吉隆坡举行的棕榈油产业大会上,预料这将是关键讨论议题.届时各方分析师将纷纷发表对食用油市场的观点及预测.
**生化柴油需求下降**
投资银行高盛称,由于价格反弹过大过快,未来三到六个月内,棕榈油价格将回落10%-15%.
该行补充称,"毛棕榈油价格表现远优于原油,已显着压缩棕榈油生化柴油的利润率.生化柴油需求的减少将打击棕榈油价格."
作为生化柴油原料的棕榈油,自年初以来,与区内指标新加坡柴油相比一直享有溢价.
由于油价下滑,欧美对棕榈生化燃料的需求开始下降,尤其是欧盟上周已开始对美国廉价的进口生化燃料课徵反倾销税.
另一方面,一家面向中国的马来西亚出口商称,由于棕榈油在国际现货市场上对豆油的竞争力已不复存在,向中国付运的棕榈油今年可能较上年的360万吨减少10%.在鹿特丹,精炼棕榈油精成本为每吨595美元,较豆油高6%.
广州一位交易员称,"我预测今年中国棕榈油需求将低于去年,因此毛棕榈油价格不太可能大幅反弹."(完)
--译文审校 沈以文
from reuter.cn
2009年 3月 11日 星期三 06:51 BJT
* 棕榈油与豆油价差缩窄至一年来最低
* 收获季产出达高峰但需求走软,将打压价格
* 马来西亚行业大会将公布价格预测
记者 Niluksi Koswanage;编译 徐伟
路透吉隆坡3月10日电---亚洲棕榈油期货与美国豆油期货去年走势几乎同步,但随着库存减少,前者自今年1月以来已摆脱豆油颓势,两者价差缩窄至一年来最低.
不过,对许多交易员而言,这是令人忧心的信号.他们认为棕榈油价格已到了向下修正的时机,因为中国与印度等主要进口国在建立大量库存後减缓进口、市季节性收获高峰、同时自2007年以来逐步降至低点的生产商库存开始增加.
一马来西亚种植主称,"未来六个月内,棕榈油价格大致介于1,200-1,400马币,因为价格上涨缩窄了与豆油的价差."
毛棕榈油期货自1月以来已大涨23%,同期美国豆油期货则下跌8%,两合约价差收窄至每吨150美元以来,为去年8月高峰时的三分之一.
在欧洲,棕榈油较豆油溢价6%,1月初时还为折价2.5%.
浏览棕榈油,豆油与柴油价格相关走势,请点击(https://customers.reuters.com/d/graphics/CMD_PLMSY0309.gif)
尽管南美乾旱引发忧虑,阿根廷农民与政府在定价问题陷入僵局,但因股市下跌、美元走强、以及原油价格疲软之故,美国指标食用油价格持续回落.
主要消费国中国持有大量的食用油储备、47美元的原油价格令棕榈油生化柴油业务无利可图、再加上夏季是东南亚收获季节的开始,因此棕榈油库存将迅速增长.
本周在马来西亚吉隆坡举行的棕榈油产业大会上,预料这将是关键讨论议题.届时各方分析师将纷纷发表对食用油市场的观点及预测.
**生化柴油需求下降**
投资银行高盛称,由于价格反弹过大过快,未来三到六个月内,棕榈油价格将回落10%-15%.
该行补充称,"毛棕榈油价格表现远优于原油,已显着压缩棕榈油生化柴油的利润率.生化柴油需求的减少将打击棕榈油价格."
作为生化柴油原料的棕榈油,自年初以来,与区内指标新加坡柴油相比一直享有溢价.
由于油价下滑,欧美对棕榈生化燃料的需求开始下降,尤其是欧盟上周已开始对美国廉价的进口生化燃料课徵反倾销税.
另一方面,一家面向中国的马来西亚出口商称,由于棕榈油在国际现货市场上对豆油的竞争力已不复存在,向中国付运的棕榈油今年可能较上年的360万吨减少10%.在鹿特丹,精炼棕榈油精成本为每吨595美元,较豆油高6%.
广州一位交易员称,"我预测今年中国棕榈油需求将低于去年,因此毛棕榈油价格不太可能大幅反弹."(完)
--译文审校 沈以文
15 March 2009
要小心骗人的传销手法
我看过一些肥料商称他们的肥料可以大大提高产量，甚至能把不结“果”的油棕树变成可以开花结果。
虽然这个品牌不错，有纳米科技，能活化土壤，改善土质。但销售商家太不诚实了，所以我不想提。
也看过一些卖幼苗和种子的，把不知道什么品种的油棕拍摄下来放在youtube，这个相信也不是真的。
我想是他们偷偷闯入别人的实验室，把dura品种的油棕树拍摄下来吧？
牛舍和猪圈，都有所谓的“种牛”和“种猪”，功能和dura类似，是拿来配种用的。
如果dura也能当作ffb生产，他们的产量是65tons/ha，但没什么油，只能拿来吓唬人的。
最好把果肉（pulp）切开来看。
我不懂怎么分辨品种，都是自己的猜测。
虽然这个品牌不错，有纳米科技，能活化土壤，改善土质。但销售商家太不诚实了，所以我不想提。
也看过一些卖幼苗和种子的，把不知道什么品种的油棕拍摄下来放在youtube，这个相信也不是真的。
我想是他们偷偷闯入别人的实验室，把dura品种的油棕树拍摄下来吧？
牛舍和猪圈，都有所谓的“种牛”和“种猪”，功能和dura类似，是拿来配种用的。
如果dura也能当作ffb生产，他们的产量是65tons/ha，但没什么油，只能拿来吓唬人的。
最好把果肉（pulp）切开来看。
我不懂怎么分辨品种，都是自己的猜测。
13 March 2009
肥料成本
在再谈停止施肥一文中曾经提到，每公顷的施肥成本为RM1000，这是很有必要再说明的，如果不说明，业者就要心里咒骂了，因为对他们来说，每公顷放RM4000肥都有可能，在去年高峰季的时候。
1.计算是从上市公司成本作出的，这也是从每吨CPO成本中抽25%来做benchmark的。
2.这是假设上市公司自己调配的肥料成本，且是根据提半年到一年前的锁定成本(lock price)，我们就姑且认定他是4Q07-1Q08的行情。
以wilmar为例，他虽然有十几-几十万公顷种植，但他的自产的肥料就足够给自己一半了。我不懂他们是怎么施肥的，但我想他们是自己调配的。
3. urea-dap-mop + 微量元素如borax（硼砂）,硫酸镁（泻药），想象如果我们用一年前的价钱“散买”，自己调配，可以省下多少钱？
4. 大公司把不要的油棕残余，和鸡粪混合，发酵分解成有机肥。如果用得好，效果不差化肥。有机肥含有17种化学成分，可和化肥互补长短。火山灰(valcano ash)也能加强在肥料里。
5. 很可能是肥料商要你多放的，因为没试过谁都不知道。我们以某知名厂牌为例，他建议的钾肥已经超出了specification的100%。
一棵树所需要的营养，大致上会因为地理环境和土壤环境不同而改变。
拿标准答案来讲，一棵成年树的营养大致如下
N 1.2kg
P2O5 0.6kg
K2O 1.2kg
MgO 0.17kg
sulfur (S) 0.3kg
CaCO3(Ca) 无法确认
硼砂 0.1kg
如果Ammonium Sulphate取代urea，sulfur应该可以减少。
CaCO3有很多很多替代品，只要是石灰都可替代，复合肥SSP也可以替代。
最近的肥料价格
dap 350美元/ton ， 18%N 46%P
urea 300美元/ton, 46%N ，印尼有供应，实际价格更低。
mop 860美元/ton 60%K ，最近起很厉害，上个月没有这么贵。
如果把上面三个加在一起，得三吨肥，1510美元，NPK 21% 16% 18% ，相当于一包包的市售化肥成分，21%N有点过量，只是简单计算不于计较。
如果想调出一棵油棕树的营养，建议的混合量为：
dap 1.3kg
urea 2.1kg
MOP/KCI 2kg
即可得到一棵成年树的营养。
注意，DAP为复合肥。这里没有考虑追加20%以提升产量的特殊情况
每棵树的费用为RM10，如果不考虑微量元素和有机肥。
值得一提的是，K占了NPK的60%成本，如果在2007年可没有这么贵。
所以，低成本的公司的施肥成本，是可以控制在RM1000/ha以下的。
如果1ha有133树，即，目前1ha的NPK成本为RM1330。
这个数字是随机的，因为树的高矮大小，品种，父母起源都能改变密度的决策，有的143棵。
如果你要拿一些小公司来做例子，RM1000是不可能的。因为有的上市公司喜欢把estate“外包”给related party，他们怎么吃就不清楚了。
不过，自行施肥是相当挑战的，必须观察湿度，树外观，npk也要分时段放，不能一次全放。“一次全放”指的不是一年放一次，而是NPK和mg四者的施肥时机。
一般上，NK放在一起能保持ion的电子中和，之后才是放P。
解决了电子中和，还要顾及酸碱度和盐分。
但所知有限，实在不敢多说。
http://www.agricultureinformation.com/forums/questions-answers/12541-oil-palm-cultivation.html
1.计算是从上市公司成本作出的，这也是从每吨CPO成本中抽25%来做benchmark的。
2.这是假设上市公司自己调配的肥料成本，且是根据提半年到一年前的锁定成本(lock price)，我们就姑且认定他是4Q07-1Q08的行情。
以wilmar为例，他虽然有十几-几十万公顷种植，但他的自产的肥料就足够给自己一半了。我不懂他们是怎么施肥的，但我想他们是自己调配的。
3. urea-dap-mop + 微量元素如borax（硼砂）,硫酸镁（泻药），想象如果我们用一年前的价钱“散买”，自己调配，可以省下多少钱？
4. 大公司把不要的油棕残余，和鸡粪混合，发酵分解成有机肥。如果用得好，效果不差化肥。有机肥含有17种化学成分，可和化肥互补长短。火山灰(valcano ash)也能加强在肥料里。
5. 很可能是肥料商要你多放的，因为没试过谁都不知道。我们以某知名厂牌为例，他建议的钾肥已经超出了specification的100%。
一棵树所需要的营养，大致上会因为地理环境和土壤环境不同而改变。
拿标准答案来讲，一棵成年树的营养大致如下
N 1.2kg
P2O5 0.6kg
K2O 1.2kg
MgO 0.17kg
sulfur (S) 0.3kg
CaCO3(Ca) 无法确认
硼砂 0.1kg
如果Ammonium Sulphate取代urea，sulfur应该可以减少。
CaCO3有很多很多替代品，只要是石灰都可替代，复合肥SSP也可以替代。
最近的肥料价格
dap 350美元/ton ， 18%N 46%P
urea 300美元/ton, 46%N ，印尼有供应，实际价格更低。
mop 860美元/ton 60%K ，最近起很厉害，上个月没有这么贵。
如果把上面三个加在一起，得三吨肥，1510美元，NPK 21% 16% 18% ，相当于一包包的市售化肥成分，21%N有点过量，只是简单计算不于计较。
如果想调出一棵油棕树的营养，建议的混合量为：
dap 1.3kg
urea 2.1kg
MOP/KCI 2kg
即可得到一棵成年树的营养。
注意，DAP为复合肥。这里没有考虑追加20%以提升产量的特殊情况
每棵树的费用为RM10，如果不考虑微量元素和有机肥。
值得一提的是，K占了NPK的60%成本，如果在2007年可没有这么贵。
所以，低成本的公司的施肥成本，是可以控制在RM1000/ha以下的。
如果1ha有133树，即，目前1ha的NPK成本为RM1330。
这个数字是随机的，因为树的高矮大小，品种，父母起源都能改变密度的决策，有的143棵。
如果你要拿一些小公司来做例子，RM1000是不可能的。因为有的上市公司喜欢把estate“外包”给related party，他们怎么吃就不清楚了。
不过，自行施肥是相当挑战的，必须观察湿度，树外观，npk也要分时段放，不能一次全放。“一次全放”指的不是一年放一次，而是NPK和mg四者的施肥时机。
一般上，NK放在一起能保持ion的电子中和，之后才是放P。
解决了电子中和，还要顾及酸碱度和盐分。
但所知有限，实在不敢多说。
http://www.agricultureinformation.com/forums/questions-answers/12541-oil-palm-cultivation.html
为什么树老了就要砍？
原因除了产量少外，高度也是一个砍掉的原因。老树结果的果串(FFB)串数少，且每一束都重达30kg，拿一个长杆子把它捅下来，要给双倍价钱，这么不符合工学原理的工作，是不会有人做的。
如果任凭他长，可长到100岁。
如果任凭他长，可长到100岁。
11 March 2009
malaysian windfall tax revise
作者评论:
author comment:
似乎高兴得太早了，因为还不知道tax rate是多少，如果西马从15%提高到20%，东马从7.5%提高到10%，是好还是不好呢？
看看过去暴利税的记录，下表所示：
we don't know who laugh at last, until we get the tax rate，if tax rate raise from 15% to 20% for east malaysia, raise from 7.5% to 10% for west malaysia, good or bad?
let me run back the history of windfall tax again，shown in the following :
反过来说，如果cpo可以到达RM2500，乐观冲昏了头脑，也就不会计较暴利税了。
on the flip side, if cpo could reach RM2500，when extravagance cause us lose our mind ,then who will care windfall tax?
news:
THE crude palm oil (CPO) threshold price of RM2,000 per tonne under the windfall profit levy imposed on oil palm plantation companies in July 2008 has been revised to RM2,500 for Peninsular Malaysia and RM3,000 for Sabah and Sarawak under the Government’s mini budget announced yesterday.
Malaysian Estate Owners’ Association president Boon Weng Siew said most of the association members were supportive of the Govern-ment’s decision given the current low CPO price level and high cost of production situation.
“We have requested since September last year for the Government to either revise the CPO threshold price to RM2,500 or abolish the CPO windfall profit levy,” he told StarBiz.
There was also a call from oil palm planters seeking the Government to refund the windfall tax collected between July and September estimated at about RM250mil, following the fall in CPO price below RM2,000 in October.
Boon pointed out that the Government should have also look at the calculation mode of windfall profit levy.
“We believe it will be more reasonable to calculate the levy based on the actual profit of the plantation companies rather than tax them based on fresh fruit bunches or CPO yield,” he added.
Boon said the current calculation was unfair to new plantation companies producing three tonnes per ha per year like those in Sarawak, which started to actively cultivate oil palm about six years ago.
“It is not logical to impose windfall profit tax on these new planters, which are not even paying the ordinary corporate taxes,” he added.
Sarawak-based timber and plantation group Ta Ann Holdings Bhd managing director Datuk Wong Kuo Hea concurred with Boon that it was unfair to impose the windfall tax on new oil palm planters.
“It is good of the Government to respond to Sarawak planters’ plea for a revision in CPO windfall profit tax. However, we would prefer if the CPO windfall tax is abolished because our margins still have not improved while production cost is getting higher,” he said.
thestar
author comment:
似乎高兴得太早了，因为还不知道tax rate是多少，如果西马从15%提高到20%，东马从7.5%提高到10%，是好还是不好呢？
看看过去暴利税的记录，下表所示：
we don't know who laugh at last, until we get the tax rate，if tax rate raise from 15% to 20% for east malaysia, raise from 7.5% to 10% for west malaysia, good or bad?
let me run back the history of windfall tax again，shown in the following :
反过来说，如果cpo可以到达RM2500，乐观冲昏了头脑，也就不会计较暴利税了。
on the flip side, if cpo could reach RM2500，when extravagance cause us lose our mind ,then who will care windfall tax?
news:
THE crude palm oil (CPO) threshold price of RM2,000 per tonne under the windfall profit levy imposed on oil palm plantation companies in July 2008 has been revised to RM2,500 for Peninsular Malaysia and RM3,000 for Sabah and Sarawak under the Government’s mini budget announced yesterday.
Malaysian Estate Owners’ Association president Boon Weng Siew said most of the association members were supportive of the Govern-ment’s decision given the current low CPO price level and high cost of production situation.
“We have requested since September last year for the Government to either revise the CPO threshold price to RM2,500 or abolish the CPO windfall profit levy,” he told StarBiz.
There was also a call from oil palm planters seeking the Government to refund the windfall tax collected between July and September estimated at about RM250mil, following the fall in CPO price below RM2,000 in October.
Boon pointed out that the Government should have also look at the calculation mode of windfall profit levy.
“We believe it will be more reasonable to calculate the levy based on the actual profit of the plantation companies rather than tax them based on fresh fruit bunches or CPO yield,” he added.
Boon said the current calculation was unfair to new plantation companies producing three tonnes per ha per year like those in Sarawak, which started to actively cultivate oil palm about six years ago.
“It is not logical to impose windfall profit tax on these new planters, which are not even paying the ordinary corporate taxes,” he added.
Sarawak-based timber and plantation group Ta Ann Holdings Bhd managing director Datuk Wong Kuo Hea concurred with Boon that it was unfair to impose the windfall tax on new oil palm planters.
“It is good of the Government to respond to Sarawak planters’ plea for a revision in CPO windfall profit tax. However, we would prefer if the CPO windfall tax is abolished because our margins still have not improved while production cost is getting higher,” he said.
thestar
10 March 2009
Sindora and Sime Darby to exchange palm oil estates
blogger remark: it should be hectares instead of acres
March 4, 2009 10:47 GMT+8
palmoilhq
Sindora Bhd has proposed an exchange of oil palm estates with Sime Darby Bhd in Johor to boost its crude palm oil (CPO) production. Sindora said it would exchange its estate in Batu Pahat measuring about 2,371.7 acres (about 960 hectares) with Sime Darby’s 2,225.8-acre holdings in Kluang.
Based on valuations, Sime Darby’s land is worth RM71.7 million while Sindora’s land is valued at RM77.7 million.In addition to the land exchange, Sindora would also receive RM6 million from Sime Darby.
On the rationale of the exercise, Sindora said in a statement that its oil palm estate was not sizeable enough to enable a palm oil mill to be operated to enhance the extraction of CPO.
“The Sime Darby land is located within the vicinity of two oil palm estates, namely Ladang Tereh and Ladang Selai which are owned by Kulim (Malaysia) Bhd, the holding company of Sindora.
“The strategic location of Sime Darby’s land would enable fresh fruit bunches produced to be transported to the palm oil mill located at the adjoining Ladang Tereh plantation on a timely basis and this would enhance the extraction of CPO,” it said.
In addition, Sindora said it would be able to unlock the value of its land and realise a one-time gain of about RM38.17 million or 40 sen per share upon completion of the proposed exchange.
March 4, 2009 10:47 GMT+8
palmoilhq
Sindora Bhd has proposed an exchange of oil palm estates with Sime Darby Bhd in Johor to boost its crude palm oil (CPO) production. Sindora said it would exchange its estate in Batu Pahat measuring about 2,371.7 acres (about 960 hectares) with Sime Darby’s 2,225.8-acre holdings in Kluang.
Based on valuations, Sime Darby’s land is worth RM71.7 million while Sindora’s land is valued at RM77.7 million.In addition to the land exchange, Sindora would also receive RM6 million from Sime Darby.
On the rationale of the exercise, Sindora said in a statement that its oil palm estate was not sizeable enough to enable a palm oil mill to be operated to enhance the extraction of CPO.
“The Sime Darby land is located within the vicinity of two oil palm estates, namely Ladang Tereh and Ladang Selai which are owned by Kulim (Malaysia) Bhd, the holding company of Sindora.
“The strategic location of Sime Darby’s land would enable fresh fruit bunches produced to be transported to the palm oil mill located at the adjoining Ladang Tereh plantation on a timely basis and this would enhance the extraction of CPO,” it said.
In addition, Sindora said it would be able to unlock the value of its land and realise a one-time gain of about RM38.17 million or 40 sen per share upon completion of the proposed exchange.
简谈实验室。
为什么只能简谈？因为博主懂的有限。
简单扼要的说，本地的品种都是dura（母体）和pisifera（花粉）配出来的，参考什么是DxP？，但因为实验室的不同，品种来源也不同，因此他们各自都有自己的名称。所谓无奸不成商，每个机构都说自己的是最好的，因此也很难吸取到正确知识。
目前一株12个月的树苗，价格在RM12.50-RM20之间，相差如此之大，这应该是水货和名牌的差异性产生的。
dura有坚硬的外壳，含油量少。
pisifera有较薄的外壳，但结果率低。
因此唯有利用他们的特性(trait)，杂交成tenera。
目前的tenera（也可以说是DxP），已经是由第四代的dura和第四代的pisifera杂交而成的。DxP的概念是来自一个实验室：Oil Palm Genetics Laboratory，它是由四家机构组建的。
【1965 and financed by four (4) companies, namely; Dunlop (now known as IOI), Guthrie, Harrison & Crossfields (now known as Golden Hope) and Unilever (through its subsidiary, Pamol). 】
OPGL虽然还在，但想也不用想，找都不用找，已经名存实亡。
APPLIED AGRICULTURAL RESOURCES SDN BHD
由bstead和klk联营，Nottingham大学有参与部分。
IOI Research Centre
这个不知道要怎么讲。
IOI Research Centre,
73309 Batang Melaka,
Negeri Sembilan,Malaysia.
Email : ioi.research.centre@ioi.com.my
Phone : 06 - 431 7323
Fax : 06 - 431 7766
United plantation
他们也有DxP实验室，从表现来看应该不差，只是行事低调。
Asiatic
爱related party transaction，玩票性质。
PPB
这个需要讲吗？
Kulim
他的实验室主力是和外国公司联营，他也是唯一具有“转基因”（genetic modified）实力的公司。因为以上的机构，甚至于PORIM，都还在“clone”的阶段。
以上言论看在researcher眼里是笑话，但我是投资者，能做到这样已经心满意足。
有错必纠。
简单扼要的说，本地的品种都是dura（母体）和pisifera（花粉）配出来的，参考什么是DxP？，但因为实验室的不同，品种来源也不同，因此他们各自都有自己的名称。所谓无奸不成商，每个机构都说自己的是最好的，因此也很难吸取到正确知识。
目前一株12个月的树苗，价格在RM12.50-RM20之间，相差如此之大，这应该是水货和名牌的差异性产生的。
dura有坚硬的外壳，含油量少。
pisifera有较薄的外壳，但结果率低。
因此唯有利用他们的特性(trait)，杂交成tenera。
目前的tenera（也可以说是DxP），已经是由第四代的dura和第四代的pisifera杂交而成的。DxP的概念是来自一个实验室：Oil Palm Genetics Laboratory，它是由四家机构组建的。
【1965 and financed by four (4) companies, namely; Dunlop (now known as IOI), Guthrie, Harrison & Crossfields (now known as Golden Hope) and Unilever (through its subsidiary, Pamol). 】
OPGL虽然还在，但想也不用想，找都不用找，已经名存实亡。
APPLIED AGRICULTURAL RESOURCES SDN BHD
由bstead和klk联营，Nottingham大学有参与部分。
IOI Research Centre
这个不知道要怎么讲。
IOI Research Centre,
73309 Batang Melaka,
Negeri Sembilan,Malaysia.
Email : ioi.research.centre@ioi.com.my
Phone : 06 - 431 7323
Fax : 06 - 431 7766
United plantation
他们也有DxP实验室，从表现来看应该不差，只是行事低调。
Asiatic
爱related party transaction，玩票性质。
PPB
这个需要讲吗？
Kulim
他的实验室主力是和外国公司联营，他也是唯一具有“转基因”（genetic modified）实力的公司。因为以上的机构，甚至于PORIM，都还在“clone”的阶段。
以上言论看在researcher眼里是笑话，但我是投资者，能做到这样已经心满意足。
有错必纠。
02 March 2009
续boustead's sales and leaseback arrangment
续BSDREIT &
boustead's sales and leaseback arrangement
近几年来，boustead把种植业逐步出售给SLA(goldencrop & bsdreit)，套现的资金用来收购多项非种植公司。
把低风险的种植资产转到高风险的行业，是对是错？
SLA可套现的资金总计为RM9.7亿，这个计算来自：7.42亿的goldencrop，以50%计的bsdreit，net of lease deposit，重组费用。
在名义上，BOUSTEAD只许拿这些钱还贷款，但实为收购其他资产，这已可在近几年得到证明。
SLA能降低gearing使帐目变得安全健康，有了“看起来”安全的帐目，后续收购才不会变得很危险，但我认为重组不是为了讨好银行，因为没有这个需要，银行也没这么笨。
重组不是为了蒙混股东，因为小股东几时受过尊重？
重组不是为了扩大盈利，因为没有必要小题大作。
比较能解释的应该是，武装部队基金（LTAT, boustead's holding company）在适度抽水。
一个例子就是，2005年，boustead把两个estate (bebar&malakoff)，以RM11 millions计价脱售给LTAT。
但在2008，boustead却要以RM19.24 millions赎回两个estate。
在这三年里，两个estate就让boustead平白无故亏了RM8.24m，此外，boustead还要给goldencrop利息和盈利分享费。
虽然，boustead在两个SLA中的土地增值里（和重估有关），账面上赚了近4亿，三年后又在bebar&malakoff地位转让中，赚了4-5百万，但是，boustead都是分文未取的，原因一，被SLA的%利息和盈利分享所剥削，原因二，已把这些钱花在收购其他资产了，原因三，失去土地增值机会。
由于goldencrop Master Ijarah Agreement不给公众和机构购买，他们只卖给selected investor，因此所有细节只能通过相关管道拿到，例如评估机构。
从年报得知，boustead付给goldencorps的利息如下：
y0: RM35,000,000 deposit (相信是refundable的)
y1: RM69,766,000
y2-y5: RM252,924,000 （逐年减少）
y6-y7: RM102,556,000（逐年减少）
大略来看，boustead付给goldencrop的利息至少是8.5%，由于管理资产会在3/5/7年赎回而相续减少，因此整个利息架构是逐年递减的。
如果再加上鲜为人知的盈利分享细节，goldencrop应该有11%回酬，这和bsdreit的原理是一样的。比较不一样的是，估值上的差异。
goldencrop是在May 2005，由CH Williams Talhar & Wong Sdn Bhd估价的，如果扣除提炼设施，每公顷估值是RM22500，售价是RM20050。
bsdreit是在July 2006，同样是由CH Williams Talhar & Wong Sdn Bhd估价的，如果扣除提炼设施和空地，每公顷售价是RM39587。
cpo在该两年都平稳保持在RM1450，且都是出自同一个valuer，却出现了很大的差距。相信这是因为goldencrop有部分estate是来自东马native land。
近期的Bebar&malakoff的转让价是每公顷RM51928，比平均高，这是由于malakoff是freehold，且这是于2008june的高峰期估价的。（他们连高峰周期都能掌握的的非常好，如果没有错，2013会是另一个高峰？）
如果价格太高，boustead是可以拒绝赎回goldencrop的（等同于放弃资产），但这不太可能发生。
意即，如果2010/2013年又是cpo的高峰，不管估值多么的不合理，boustead都会把option2/option3的资产赎回。
BSDREIT的租约则没有这种问题，原因是BSDREIT的估价已经很高，冲击不大，且，租约是“3年x10”方式更新的（也可能在第六年终止）。
值得注意的是，BSDREIT的固定收入并不是27年都固定的，他是三年review一次的，如果说2010年10/11月期间，又是行情大好，那么租约也许会修订为0.8亿，也许1亿，这必须根据当时情况而定。反过来说，如果2010年10/11月是世界末日，那么租约就可能是0.2亿了。
我看了他们的agreement，他们只说到增值潜能，却对减值风险只字不提，也没有提到“每股RM1赎回”之类的保证。 （或许我是错的）
不管怎样，增值的潜能很看好。
但这并不等于BSDREIT在2010年是值得投资的，因为如果说2010年行情大好，其余股票会起的更快。
在两个SLA的文告中，boustead都在强调lowering gearing,interest saving,realising true value的三个理由，但事实是，SLA和这三个好处完全没有关系，他们只会加重boustead的负担。osk是goldencrop的advisor，也很中肯的怀疑goldencrop SLA能interest saving。
boustead需每年付11%（预估）的利息给bsdreit和goldencrop，同时也失去每年10%（预估）的土地增值机会，如果能和5%borrowing cost相抵，他也要倒亏了16%。
虽套现了RM9.7亿，但每年的损失却是RM1.552亿。
从流程来看，boustead表面上是为了收购其他资产才利用SLA套现的，但实际上是，即使不套现，他也能够找到融资管道，因为银行不会那么笨，误把lease当作是减磅balance sheet的手法。
SLA虽然是多此一举的，但也不能排除这是故意“放水”给selected investor的。
就当作他是套现购买资产好了。
如果他有本领把9.7亿变成20亿的生意，这没话讲。
有哪间公司是不贪的？一消一长之间，总要有双赢的输送，他从国防部那里拿到了好处，也从母公司那里取得BH Petroleum的销售网络。
boustead近几年来的收购有不少，但是比较大宗的只有3个，其余的无法赘述。
1.收购57%的Boustead Petroleum Sdn Bhd(formly named BP Malaysia)，收购价为RM233.13 million cash。
股东分别是57% boustead，43% TEGAS PERTINI。
许多人误解这个收购价是4亿多，实为2.33亿。
之后的股权从下降了到53%。
2. 收购重组BHIC
收购BHIC应该耗费两年时间，我只根据一年的年报推测，他用了2.56亿取得65% BHIC股权。
3.取得Naval Shipyard contract
收购Naval Shipyard，如果以10%股权=0.5亿计，收购60%就要花3亿。
总结三者，boustead用掉了7.89亿
4. 余额1.81亿，假设这个余额是用来收购其余资产的，收购本益比是10倍。
在战略意义上，这4项收购必须带来每年1.552亿的cashflow，才足以抵消两项SLA的负面作用。
根据2000-2004记录，和2007年报估算，BP在扣除特别收益后的盈利介于30mils到60mils之间，如果以57%计算，实际收益为17mils到34mils之间。
2008年最后一季，因为油价剧烈下跌，stock减值，把整年的盈利吃走了，这被归类为特别亏损。
相反的，因APM报价机制造成的时间差异，取得的收益都被归类为特别收益。
BHIC在2008年和2007年，扣除特别收益后的盈利分为是 134,699,000 和 82,071,000， 如果以65%计算，实际收益在87.55mils到53.37mils之间。
如果以60%计算Naval Shipyard contract的收益，在2008年和2007年，分别是135mils和170mils。
以上四项收购，能带来的实质利益为(25+70+150+18.1)millions， 2.631亿 。
虽然2.631亿足够抵消1.552亿的负面作用，但2.631亿并不是cashflow，也很难断定里面有没有假帐。这是假设经济好时的情况做的比较。
【edit on 26 march 2009】
针对Boustead Petroleum Sdn Bhd （BPSD）的盈利计算，须做出适度的修正。
由于BPSD的主要盈利贡献来自70% BP Marketing，flowback（盈利回流母公司）应该再扣30%。
在不影响结论的原则下，不做修改。
【end of edit】
boustead's sales and leaseback arrangement
近几年来，boustead把种植业逐步出售给SLA(goldencrop & bsdreit)，套现的资金用来收购多项非种植公司。
把低风险的种植资产转到高风险的行业，是对是错？
SLA可套现的资金总计为RM9.7亿，这个计算来自：7.42亿的goldencrop，以50%计的bsdreit，net of lease deposit，重组费用。
在名义上，BOUSTEAD只许拿这些钱还贷款，但实为收购其他资产，这已可在近几年得到证明。
SLA能降低gearing使帐目变得安全健康，有了“看起来”安全的帐目，后续收购才不会变得很危险，但我认为重组不是为了讨好银行，因为没有这个需要，银行也没这么笨。
重组不是为了蒙混股东，因为小股东几时受过尊重？
重组不是为了扩大盈利，因为没有必要小题大作。
比较能解释的应该是，武装部队基金（LTAT, boustead's holding company）在适度抽水。
一个例子就是，2005年，boustead把两个estate (bebar&malakoff)，以RM11 millions计价脱售给LTAT。
但在2008，boustead却要以RM19.24 millions赎回两个estate。
在这三年里，两个estate就让boustead平白无故亏了RM8.24m，此外，boustead还要给goldencrop利息和盈利分享费。
虽然，boustead在两个SLA中的土地增值里（和重估有关），账面上赚了近4亿，三年后又在bebar&malakoff地位转让中，赚了4-5百万，但是，boustead都是分文未取的，原因一，被SLA的%利息和盈利分享所剥削，原因二，已把这些钱花在收购其他资产了，原因三，失去土地增值机会。
由于goldencrop Master Ijarah Agreement不给公众和机构购买，他们只卖给selected investor，因此所有细节只能通过相关管道拿到，例如评估机构。
从年报得知，boustead付给goldencorps的利息如下：
y0: RM35,000,000 deposit (相信是refundable的)
y1: RM69,766,000
y2-y5: RM252,924,000 （逐年减少）
y6-y7: RM102,556,000（逐年减少）
大略来看，boustead付给goldencrop的利息至少是8.5%，由于管理资产会在3/5/7年赎回而相续减少，因此整个利息架构是逐年递减的。
如果再加上鲜为人知的盈利分享细节，goldencrop应该有11%回酬，这和bsdreit的原理是一样的。比较不一样的是，估值上的差异。
goldencrop是在May 2005，由CH Williams Talhar & Wong Sdn Bhd估价的，如果扣除提炼设施，每公顷估值是RM22500，售价是RM20050。
bsdreit是在July 2006，同样是由CH Williams Talhar & Wong Sdn Bhd估价的，如果扣除提炼设施和空地，每公顷售价是RM39587。
cpo在该两年都平稳保持在RM1450，且都是出自同一个valuer，却出现了很大的差距。相信这是因为goldencrop有部分estate是来自东马native land。
近期的Bebar&malakoff的转让价是每公顷RM51928，比平均高，这是由于malakoff是freehold，且这是于2008june的高峰期估价的。（他们连高峰周期都能掌握的的非常好，如果没有错，2013会是另一个高峰？）
如果价格太高，boustead是可以拒绝赎回goldencrop的（等同于放弃资产），但这不太可能发生。
意即，如果2010/2013年又是cpo的高峰，不管估值多么的不合理，boustead都会把option2/option3的资产赎回。
BSDREIT的租约则没有这种问题，原因是BSDREIT的估价已经很高，冲击不大，且，租约是“3年x10”方式更新的（也可能在第六年终止）。
值得注意的是，BSDREIT的固定收入并不是27年都固定的，他是三年review一次的，如果说2010年10/11月期间，又是行情大好，那么租约也许会修订为0.8亿，也许1亿，这必须根据当时情况而定。反过来说，如果2010年10/11月是世界末日，那么租约就可能是0.2亿了。
我看了他们的agreement，他们只说到增值潜能，却对减值风险只字不提，也没有提到“每股RM1赎回”之类的保证。 （或许我是错的）
不管怎样，增值的潜能很看好。
但这并不等于BSDREIT在2010年是值得投资的，因为如果说2010年行情大好，其余股票会起的更快。
在两个SLA的文告中，boustead都在强调lowering gearing,interest saving,realising true value的三个理由，但事实是，SLA和这三个好处完全没有关系，他们只会加重boustead的负担。osk是goldencrop的advisor，也很中肯的怀疑goldencrop SLA能interest saving。
boustead需每年付11%（预估）的利息给bsdreit和goldencrop，同时也失去每年10%（预估）的土地增值机会，如果能和5%borrowing cost相抵，他也要倒亏了16%。
虽套现了RM9.7亿，但每年的损失却是RM1.552亿。
从流程来看，boustead表面上是为了收购其他资产才利用SLA套现的，但实际上是，即使不套现，他也能够找到融资管道，因为银行不会那么笨，误把lease当作是减磅balance sheet的手法。
SLA虽然是多此一举的，但也不能排除这是故意“放水”给selected investor的。
就当作他是套现购买资产好了。
如果他有本领把9.7亿变成20亿的生意，这没话讲。
有哪间公司是不贪的？一消一长之间，总要有双赢的输送，他从国防部那里拿到了好处，也从母公司那里取得BH Petroleum的销售网络。
boustead近几年来的收购有不少，但是比较大宗的只有3个，其余的无法赘述。
1.收购57%的Boustead Petroleum Sdn Bhd(formly named BP Malaysia)，收购价为RM233.13 million cash。
股东分别是57% boustead，43% TEGAS PERTINI。
许多人误解这个收购价是4亿多，实为2.33亿。
之后的股权从下降了到53%。
2. 收购重组BHIC
收购BHIC应该耗费两年时间，我只根据一年的年报推测，他用了2.56亿取得65% BHIC股权。
3.取得Naval Shipyard contract
收购Naval Shipyard，如果以10%股权=0.5亿计，收购60%就要花3亿。
总结三者，boustead用掉了7.89亿
4. 余额1.81亿，假设这个余额是用来收购其余资产的，收购本益比是10倍。
在战略意义上，这4项收购必须带来每年1.552亿的cashflow，才足以抵消两项SLA的负面作用。
根据2000-2004记录，和2007年报估算，BP在扣除特别收益后的盈利介于30mils到60mils之间，如果以57%计算，实际收益为17mils到34mils之间。
2008年最后一季，因为油价剧烈下跌，stock减值，把整年的盈利吃走了，这被归类为特别亏损。
相反的，因APM报价机制造成的时间差异，取得的收益都被归类为特别收益。
BHIC在2008年和2007年，扣除特别收益后的盈利分为是 134,699,000 和 82,071,000， 如果以65%计算，实际收益在87.55mils到53.37mils之间。
如果以60%计算Naval Shipyard contract的收益，在2008年和2007年，分别是135mils和170mils。
以上四项收购，能带来的实质利益为(25+70+150+18.1)millions， 2.631亿 。
虽然2.631亿足够抵消1.552亿的负面作用，但2.631亿并不是cashflow，也很难断定里面有没有假帐。这是假设经济好时的情况做的比较。
【edit on 26 march 2009】
针对Boustead Petroleum Sdn Bhd （BPSD）的盈利计算，须做出适度的修正。
由于BPSD的主要盈利贡献来自70% BP Marketing，flowback（盈利回流母公司）应该再扣30%。
在不影响结论的原则下，不做修改。
【end of edit】
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)