本季季报和年报(简短陈述)- 之"我的观点还是天气"

昨天印尼政府宣布3%出口税，cpo期货“视而不见”，下跌到了RM2400的水平。
june 2009月货报2470
nov 2009月货报2350 （last）

今年上半年，全球普遍干旱，就连泰国和印尼的大象都在发疯，印尼的油棕树被大象推倒更可以证明干旱是真的发生了。(google一下elephant oil palm indonesia）

在上一篇博文中，已经很确定的知道棕油产量确定会在下半年增加，但就是不知道大豆会怎样。

【由于气候和政策的关系，巴西的大豆和美国大豆的轮种【期】不一样，目前是巴西的收割期【del】。目前美国就比较棘手，因为现在是决定种植面积的关键时期，因为他们有三种选择，在割了小麦以后，第二轮可能是玉米，可能是大豆，也可能是冬麦，这是要看天气，土地营养，经济效益才能决定的。】
（【】里的内容，于31 may 2009修改。）

太过依赖美国农业部的报告，导致常常做出错误的判断，比如他们说年头天气差，那么种植面积势必会增加，万一8,9月天气转好，黄豆盛产，加上cpo也盛产，那么cpo下跌至RM2000是绝对可能的，我最担心这个。

ioi在年初已把大部分cpo以RM2500以上的价格，forward出去，我忘了是多少（其实数据不重要），但这不能证实cpo处于RM2500的水平是能证实的。

大豆的价格和产量，受天气影响的程度是很大的，以这张图表为例，

source from usda，CONAB。

这个例子说明的是，2007年上半年，虽然巴西种植面积下跌4%，总产量却增加了5%。
像这个情况还好，因为他们已经知道产量会增加，因此“节制”了种植面积。

我的建议是，应该把重心放“一些”到外围。
对单一公司做研究已经变得没有危机意识。
或许你对趋势，热钱，经济，利率，市场心理，期货有另一番见解，对道指几十年来的图了解得很透彻，能预测未来。但我的能力仅限于此，我的建议还是，不要太过偏重单一公司。



本季季度报告(简短陈述)

27号是klk公布季报的日期。
hsplant，ql的季报不错。（只要比想象中的好，就已很好。）


bldplnt的年报
bldplnt的年报出炉，bldplnt的ffb产量是234000公吨，它并没有实现在2008年8月期间作出的预测（266000公吨）。但这应该是天气影响所致，非战之罪。

bldplnt的存货上升剧烈？
答案相信是新的会计允许存货以net realizable value计价。
在30 april以前，annual audited report就有说明，但我还是看不懂。

bldplnt kabang estate

感谢一位博客在网上提供了一个照片。



这个照片说明了，bldplnt的木材子公司bintulu lumber，砍了树以后就拍拍屁股走人了，牌子挂上oil palm plantation只是名义上形式而已，看来这个division 1的地不值钱，因为都是水。

如果根据目测，这片水地应该有154公顷，这是根据远处树的情况大略测出的。


如果远处的树是油棕树，又是bldplnt种的，就怕是烂地。

如果没有错，这个应该属于mukah省的地段。

Lassa和Kabang占了bldplnt一半的地皮，总面积为21,805ha。

bldplnt some news

bldplnt的2007年平均产量是18.34 ( BLD 的每 ha 生产量)，这比起其他的sarawak-based company 好多了

swkplnt产量15（大约）
rsawit产量15.44
twsplnt产量16.9（全马），但它有30%在sabah和西马，所以应该也是15。

比SOP的20差。

经和网友讨论一翻后，我得到的结论是，sarawak土地种类是和产量关系不大的，土地等级(grade)才是，要经土测鉴定。

rsawit的地全是mineral soil，产量也不高。

以下是Henry Lau的演讲，如果他说的target属实，那么bldplnt就能算一只值得拥有的股了。
比较担心的是，去年(2008)中段，骗子特别多，说实话的反而是傻子，他会不会是傻子呢？

虽然说产量增加的原因可能是种植地库的增加，没值得高兴的，但，好过没有，因为有产量就有cash flow。

不可忽略的是，sarawak-based company不能创造出20%的IRR（rate），投资这类的停滞型(stagnant)公司，报酬预期不能太高。你只能寄托sector的上涨来带动他的股价，twsplnt是一个好例子（投资不如不买，买不如投机）。

但BLD算很好的了。

BLD PLANTATION NEW ESTATE IN SARAWAK
04 August 2008

BLD PLANTATION NEW ESTATE IN SARAWAK BLD PLANTATION will invest some RM110m to develop 6,000ha of new oil palm plantations in Sarawak in the next three years.

Executive Chairman - HENRY LAU LEE KONG said the Company would be aggressive in its new planting programme as more than half of its 53,000 ha land bank had not been developed. He said it was timely to increase the planted area as prices of crude palm oil (CPO) had been good.

The Group currently has about 23,000 ha planted with oil palm, with half of the plantations already producing fresh fruit bunches (FFBs). In three years, another 6,300 ha of matured planted areas will be added said LAU after the Company's AGM on Jun 17, 2008.

FORECAST CROP OUTPUT
In 2007, the Group's FFB production increased 3.6% to 211,000 tonnes. This is expected to grow to 266,000 tonnes this year (2008), 290,000 tonnes in 2009 and 320,000 tonnes in 2010.

LAU said expanding the Group's planted hectarage would also ensure an increasing supply of related products to feed its palm oil mill, refinery and kernel crushing plant.

PALM OIL REFINING & FRACTIONATION
100%-owned unit - KIRANA PALM OIL REFINERY has invested more than RM100m in a refinery and a dry fractionation plant in Bintulu, Sarawak. Both plants are now on trial production and are expected to begin commercial production in Jul 2008.

The refinery, which has a processing capacity of about 1,200 tonnes of CPO a day, is now producing refined bleached and deodorised palm oil, palm olein, palm stearins and palm fatty acids distillate. The kernel crushing plant has a daily capacity of 300 tonnes. Its products include crude palm kernel oil and palm kernel expeller.

BLD PLANTATION would continue to look out for good plantation land locally, LAU said, adding, however, that it had no plans to expand its plantation business to Indonesia yet.

For FYE Dec 31, 2007, Group Revenue rose 13% to a record RM152m from RM134m in FY06. Net profit more than doubled to RM37.8m in FY07 from RM16.9m previously.

从GOOGLE MAP看SARAWAK的两个地方土霸

张老板和刘老板，是众所周知的世仇，他们从东马斗到西马，从木材斗到媒体。

张老板渗透到西马的时间较早，因此他的影响力较广，也被人所熟悉，也比较有钱。

刘老板比较坚守自己的地方势力，这可以从诗华日报和星洲日报的读者销量看到区别。
虽然星洲日报的古晋销量比诗华日报高出很多，但这也是政治干涉的结果。在其他偏远地方，星洲日报售卖RM3一份并不出奇，从星洲日报没有再标价东马价格看出端倪。
西马方面，刘老板的势力代表就是东方日报和8TV。

两个人都是靠“砍伐”木材起家的，可能是政治上“分而治之”策略需要，他们都相安无事。
正因为两人做的事都一样，揭对方疮疤就等于揭自己的疮疤，不会自讨没趣。

我们可以从GOOGLE MAP得到证明他们是相亲相爱的。刘老板的油棕园和张老板的木材区毗邻。
A点是KAMPONG BATANG LASSA，褐色区相信是油棕开辟地，右边的绿色区就是张老板的地盘了。



许多SARAWAK-BASED PLANTATION COMPANIES，他们的母公司都是做木材的，要投资他们最好要知道他们的背景。

虽然SABAH的总体表现比西马出色，但税务架构扯平了优势。

如果你看见夫妻吵架，不必多事劝架，张老板和刘老板的关系也是这么维系的。



Google map的卫星扫描的时间落后了3年-5年不等，也与wikimapia版本不同，如果要追加，就得找破解后的版本了。

UPDATE REPORT 6 November 2007

RECOM Hold
PRICE RM3.70

Investment highlights

Scrapping Wawasan Sedar acquisition. BLD Plantation (BLDP) recently withdrew its plans to acquire a 49.9% stake in Wawasan Sedar from a related party for RM261.6m. The withdrawal was made after its major shareholder, KTS Holdings requested the Securities Commission (SC) for a waiver from its undertaking to address any potential conflict of interest between BLDP and its subsidiaries and the oil palm estates owned by KTS. The SC approved the waiver subject to several conditions.

Disappointed with the turn of events. We are disappointed that the proposed acquisition of related party assets was called off despite the bullish prospects for CPO price. The acquisitions would have been immediately earnings accretive to BLDP at current CPO prices. We feel that any subsequent acquisitions of significant planted estates by BLDP in the near future are likely to cost more following the strong run-up in CPO price over the past year.

Upgrading earnings by 16% for FY07. We are raising our net profit forecast for FY07 by 16% to account for our recent CPO price upgrade. We also introduce FY08-09 forecasts. Our earnings projections assume that the group achieves spot CPO price for its palm products.

Recommendation raised from sell to HOLD. Our target price rises from RM2.80 to RM4.70 as we roll it a year forward to end-08 and up our target P/E from 9x to 12x. The higher P/E rating takes into account the group’s strong FFB output growth prospects given that 36% of its total planted estates are immature. Our new target P/E represents a 30% discount to our target for large-cap planters. This implies 27% upside to the share price against our expected market return of 23%. In view of the potential upside, we have raised our rating for the stock from sell to HOLD. The group’s attractive P/E rating and EV/planted ha of RM16,800 are partially negated by our concerns over the illiquidity of the shares, lack of transparency and our disappointment with the decision to abort the Wawasan Sedar deal. We prefer bigger-cap players like KL Kepong and Asiatic for exposure to the plantation sector.

Recent developments
Cancel plans to acquire related party estates. BLD Plantation (BLDP) recently withdrew its plans to acquire a 49.9% stake in Wawasan Sedar from a related party for RM261.6m. The withdrawal was made after its major shareholder, KTS Holdings requested the SC for a waiver from the undertaking made on 16 Sep 2002 during its initial public offering (IPO) to address any potential conflict of interest issue between BLDP and its subsidiaries and the oil palm estates owned by KTS.

SC grants approval with conditions. The SC has approved the proposed waiver subject to the following conditions: (1) BLDP to be given the first right of refusal in the event KTS intends to sell or if there is any offer to purchase the six plantation companies; (2) the proposed waiver is subject to BLDP shareholders’ approval; (3) the directors and substantial shareholders of BLDP who are deemed to be interested abstain from voting and deliberating on the proposed waiver; and (4) independent members of the board appoint an independent advisor to advise the independent directors and minority shareholders of BLDP at the EGM to be convened to vote on the resolutions.

Surprised by the turn of events. We are disappointed that the proposed acquisition of related party assets was called off despite the bullish prospects for CPO price. The acquisitions would have been immediately earnings accretive to BLDP at current CPO prices and would have beefed up BLDP’s estate size by 31.7%, making it a larger listed player. We feel that any subsequent acquisitions of significant planted estates of the same size by BLDP in the near future are likely to cost more given the strong runup in CPO price over the past year.

Earnings outlook
Upgrading earnings by 16% for FY07. We are raising our net profit forecast for FY07 by 16% to account for our recent 9% upgrade in local CPO price assumption to RM2,380 per tonne. We also introduce profit forecasts for FY08 and FY09. Our earnings projections assume that the group has not entered into any forward positions for its CPO and will sell all its palm products on a spot basis.

Strong EPS growth. We project BLDP to record strong net profit growth of 83% for FY07 and 23% for FY08, driven mainly by rising CPO prices. The company’s earnings are highly leveraged to CPO price as it is a pure planter. We estimate that every 1% change in CPO price would have a 1.9% impact on our FY08 net profit.

Recommendation
Upgrade TP to RM4.70. Our target price rises from RM2.80 to RM4.70 as we roll it a year forward to end-08 and up our target P/E from 9x to 12x. The higher P/E rating takes into account the group’s strong FFB output growth prospects given that 36% of its total planted estates are immature. Our new target P/E represents a 30% discount to our target for large-cap planters.

Raised recommendation from sell to HOLD. Our target price implies 27% upside to the share price. As such, we raise our call from sell to HOLD. Our concerns over the illiquidity of the shares, lack of transparency and our disappointment with the decision not to go ahead with the Wawasan Sedar deal are offset by the group’s cheap P/E ratings and undemanding EV/planted ha of RM16,974.

filed : Scrapping Wawasan Sedar.pdf

丑陋的企业集团 － KTS（启德行）

人联党在这次大选惨败，翌日在古晋召开紧急会议，刘会洲(author:Robert Lau Hoi Chew)竟然叫陈康南辞职谢罪但遭到围攻。这件事证明了坊间传闻“刘会洲要倒陈康南”，而其背后的动力来自启德行集团。

刘会洲喊捉贼，其实是“做贼喊捉贼”！启德行集团操弄政治有数十年经验，先有扶刘贤镇上台也从刘贤镇身上捞到巨大财富，包括取得伐木权，大片农业地和特许经营权等，也可以说没有刘贤镇也没有今日启德行的成就。

1997 年金融风暴，刘贤镇儿子在股市亏了数千万元，刘贤镇要求启德行援手渡难关但被拒绝。企业界无情没有话说，然而启德行再加缺德，刘贤镇已经没有利用价值，所以策动倒刘贤镇，结果是刘贤镇丢官，联邦正部长被陈华贵拿走，而心腹刘会洲顺利当上联邦副部长，下一个目标就是干掉陈华贵。

再谈到倒沈庆辉目的就是扶持杨莉做部长，所以诗华日报故意乱写新闻，搞到被迫在选举前二天连续二天道歉。杨莉与启德行三老板刘利强关系密切，只要搞倒沈庆辉，杨莉一定有部长做，哪知道搞到全古晋人联党都倒了！其实，在人联党内部已经是公开密秘，启德行集团是黑手，如果这只黑手没有砍掉，人联党和诗巫地区永无宁日。

说启德行集团缺德：可以看到如何对付诗华日报老板刘会湘家族！连自已的亲兄弟都要“吃”，那么砂拉越饼干厂前老板陈景益又算得了什么？诗华日报梅花股占了诗华日报有限公司全部四十巴仙股权，今日不值一分钱！那些全是诗华日报老臣子数十年的血汗钱，启德行集团接管诗华日报之后，这些股票统统不要，同时大力注资，把这升斗小民的股票成为废纸，开口卖给启德行也不收！手段比张晓卿还要毒，至少张晓卿购买马来西亚日报全部吃下一百巴仙股权，然后还钱给全体马报股东，大家都没有话说。

说陈景益吧！启德行入股砂拉越饼干厂，献议增资，而陈景益无法筹足够资金，股权愈来愈小，最后连经理都没得做，手头上的股票卖给启德行也不收，吃定他！陈景益还在世，大家可以去问他是不是真的。

启德行掌控的东方日报和诗华日报以“正义”化身对抗星洲日报，内幕是奇臭无比！先有不顾小股民的利益，接着以媒体操弄政治以达到目的。西马仔那知道福州人的利害，还为“报殇”写文章，指责星洲日报欲控制大马华社。至少张晓卿还用钱买下别人股票，你启德行是硬硬“吃人”，这算是什么正义？手段比张晓卿还毒十倍不止。

董联会事件，表面上看起来是张晓卿的错，实际上是启德行集团“吃”不到那块地，被黄志渊捷足先登，这要怪刘瑞源笨！如果真如外界所说“董联会产业”被人吃掉，难道数十位董事全是傻瓜？为何他们不支持刘家而支持张家，因为刘家是大坏蛋嘛！更加无情！捐出去的钱要收回来，丢脸丢到家了，捐出去的钱还是你的吗？

刘会洲不是声声说“要爱诗巫吗”？请问他的子女在那里发展啊！你的靠山启德行集团为何将总部迁往古晋啊？你为何也将在诗巫生根数十年的诗华日报也搬去古晋？你刘会洲应该知道启德行和诗华日报搬家引发上千个家庭移民，上万人移民去古晋，这算是爱诗巫吗？

有良心的诗巫人啊！你们一定要杯葛启德行集团的刘家（不是所有刘家），打倒刘会洲！打倒已经变质的“诗华日报”，这份报纸在启德行掌控下面目全非，背叛诗巫人利益！不是以前刘会湘所经营的“诗华日报”了！

dapsarawak

溏心风暴启示录，启德行真的德才兼备?

冷月孤星 @ 8058 on 2007'年'06'月'25'日' (628 Reads) Visit My Blog

溏心风暴启示录，启德行真的德才兼备?

冷月孤星

日前翻阅《东方日報》，发现该报罕有地举行与文化界和评论界对话的交流会。在「执行顾问」古玉梁（就是戏剧性重掌东方的那位）搞出的噱头中，该报董事经理拿督刘利康「首度近距离」与文化评论界接触，他承诺《东方日报》将继续结合华社的评论声音，为社会贡献各种不同的意见。与此同时，他也颁发「风雨同路」，「董狐之笔」之类字样的奖状予与会人士。

这个当然，刘老板报告东方目前的大约状况时，他并不会告诉与会人士有关东马发生任何与启德行有关的大事，也当然不会解释，今天登上头条涉及黑帮活动的砂州副部长和商界大亨，是否跟启德行有什么瓜葛不清的关系？附加的问题，「风雨同路」是否只限有利用价值的一群文人？「董狐之笔」之类的高帽，是否该归于那些鞭挞启德行竞争对手的有功人士而已？不过不必有谁对号入座，先看一看下面提出的官司实例吧！

詩華實業Vs啟德行

（古晉訊）與啟德行新聞有限公司（KTS News Sdn Bhd，简称KTSN）聯營詩華新聞控股有限公司（See Hua News Holding Sdn Bhd，简称SHNH）的詩華實業公司（See Hua Realty Berhad，简称SHR），申訴遭啟德行新聞有限公司壓迫，向法庭要求宣判對方承購聯營公司內的股份之民事訴訟案，訂在週一（18日）在古晉第二高庭開始聽審。

詩華實業公司和啟德行新聞有限公司是在2000年11月6日簽署聯營協議書，申請方和答辯方分別持有40％和60%的股份，成為該聯營公司當時僅有的兩名股東。




申請人：
劉利仙（已故劉会湘的长女），詩華實業公司（SHR）执行董事

答辩方：
（１）詩華新聞控股有限公司（SHNH）
（２）啟德行新聞有限公司（KTSN）
（３）拿督斯里劉會幹（已故）
（４）拿督劉利康
（５）啟德行控股有限公司（KTSN）

由於詩華實業公司認為受到啟德行新聞有限公司所壓迫，援引1965年公司法令181條文，向高庭入稟一份申請書，要求高庭諭令啟德行新聞有限公司認購申請方在上述聯營公司（詩華新聞控股有限公司）的40%股份。據悉，申請方是通過代表律師，即黃亞來蘇海利律師樓和翁麗珠律師館進行這項法律興訟案，法庭訂在6月18日開始聽審此案。

本案共有5位答辯人，申請方將詩華新聞控股有限公司和啟德行新聞有限公司各列為第一及二答辯方。由於第二答辯方是啟德行控股有限公司（KTS Holdings Sdn Bhd，简称KTSN）的子公司，因此啟德行控股有限公司也被列為案中的第五答辯方。至於第三及第四答辯人分別拿督斯里劉會幹（已故），以及其兒子劉利康。前者當時是擔任啟德行新聞有限公司的主席及啟德行控股有限公司的執行主席職位。後者則是啟德行新聞有限公司的執行主席，以及啟德行控股有限公司的董事經理。

詩華實業公司與啟德行新聞有限公司聯營的條件乃包括申請人必須將公司原有的屬下18間公司（包括詩華日報有限公司和婆羅洲郵報有限公司）及地產等重新估價，注入詩華新聞控股有限公司充作資本，第二答辯人則需注入3000萬令吉的現金作為資金。不過，在此訴訟案中，申請人表示並不清楚第二答辯人是否有將之前所承諾的3千萬令吉資金注入該間聯營公司，申請方並無從介入該聯營公司的賬目審核，也未有獲得聯營股份證書。

申請方也反對2002年為該聯營公司出現第三個股東，因根據早前的協議，聯營公司只有2名股東。儘管申請方數度就一些事務追問第二答辯方，但對方卻沒有作出任何回應。加上申請方認為受到第二答辯方的壓迫，對方也未有照顧申請方之股東的利益，因此在不得已之下採取法律興訟行動。

（详闻取自星洲日報繁体版•2007.06.18，东方只有小篇幅报道且未放上网）

求認購股份Vs清盘了断

紧接着还存在第二宗诉讼案，KTSN同时以牙还牙，援引1965年公司法令218條文，向高庭入稟一份清盘申請書，要求法官宣判SHNH联营公司清盘，答辩方为SHR和SHNH，理由为双方无法互相信任，合作关系已濒临水火不相容的地步。这一步虽为弃卒保帅的险胜着，但也不是稳棋，著名例子有当年家族纠纷缠身的京都西果一案，虽然由创办人申请清盘，但法官认为一间有盈利的公司清盘，对于员工很不公平结果拒绝此项要求。

古晉第二高庭司法专员哈密苏丹认为，两案拥有互动关系所以同时进行内庭聆审，双方只需在限定时期内呈上书面陈词，因此不必传召所有证人而定在9月6日宣布裁决，所以关心东马政经动态的，千万要留意这个重要日子，也许会对創刊于1952年的《詩華日報》起着重大影响。

两袖清风Vs腰缠万贯

从一个角度来看，启德行如此对待本身的刘氏家族成员，无疑有以大欺小显现十足霸气之嫌。启德行付不起这笔购股钱寻求和解吗？刘会干自1962年起真的很能干打出大片江山，现时启德行坐拥近70多亿令吉资产，贮备现金也高达7亿多令吉，办东方每年亏蛀约1千万五百万令吉以上都属小事一项。而40%的詩華股权（价值有待沽价），也非刘利仙一人或她的同伙所有，持股人尚包括《詩華日報》的老臣子开国元勋等人，当中许多都在启德行接管后无法呆下去，因此要讨回血汗钱合乎逻辑，况且该公司帐目不清且欠透明，詩華亏钱但《婆羅洲郵報》（Borneo Post）却有可观入息，这一点他们都盼望启德行有所交代，所以兴讼也是人在江湖身不由己的行动。

环保斗士Vs环保公敌

也是一条与此有关的课题，启德行苦心经营的《东方日报》最爱提起砂州的环保问题，例如黄金城写的《东风》专栏，常常说星洲「砍树办花踪」，可是留意启德行如何起家的斑驳旧事，难道她从来没有砍伐木材破坏热带树木？没有这些木材本钱，东方不要说惨淡经营也许根本就无从冒出头来。看一看启德行的公司网页，最畅销产品之一竟然为伐木电链锯。东方大声疾呼巴貢水壩集水區被破坏之前，最好还是先为启德行赎罪赔不是，因为她旗下的挂牌公司BLD种植，不也就砍伐大片森林来栽种油棕树？评论人例如黄孟祚和其他环保人士或团体（比方自然之友），当您们在东方提出砂州环保问题责难谁谁谁的时候，千万记得也把启德行的历史档案和现时所作所为看在眼里！

启德行，德才兼备？办报真的无比清高白璧无瑕？还是如「溏心风暴」的名句：未登天子位，先置殺人刀？

thefreemsdia.com

Rosy outlook for BLD Plantation

notice: acquisition on wawasan sedar was waived.
link here

PETALING JAYA: BLD Plantation Bhd’s earnings prospects remain rosy with the buoyant crude palm oil (CPO) prices that are seen to be sustainable in the next couple of years. The stock’s valuations are compelling. Based on Standard & Poor’s (S&P) earnings per share (EPS) estimate of 44.9 sen for fiscal year (FY) ending Dec 31, 2007 and yesterday’s closing price of RM3.08, the shares are trading at a price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 6.9 times. Based on S&P’s EPS forecast of 67.3 sen for FY08, this indicates a PER of 4.6 times. A number of other plantation companies are already trading at high double-digit PERs. Furthermore, BLD’s share price has only appreciated 18.5% year-to-date. It is timely or the counter to play catch up with its peers. According to its 2006 annual report, the group has some 131,037 acres of oil palm plantations in Sarawak, of which 25,451 acres are matured palms.
S&P, in its initial coverage, noted that BLD’s plantation age profile was attractive, with about 41% below seven years old, 48% in prime-mature stage and 11% between 16 and 20 years old.
BLD said in its annual report: “Our plantations will progressively have more matured crops in the coming year, which augurs well for the group to sustain the FFB (fresh fruit bunches) production, thus enhancing revenue.” FFB production increased 4% in 2006 compared with 2005 while oil extraction rate achieved was close to 22%, it added. While many of its peers have developed most of their plantation and are facing difficulties in securing more land bank in Malaysia, BLD still has a vast undeveloped plantation land of 76,601 acres.
Interestingly, BLD has one of the highest acreage of plantation land per 1,000 shares. Based on its 85 million issued shares, owning 1,000 shares is almost like owning 1.542 acres of plantation land. BLD is also becoming a bigger integrated oil palm group. It currently operates a mill in Miri with an hourly capacity of 380,000 tonnes.
The 2006 annual report said a palm oil refining plant and dry fractionation factory at Tanjung Kidurung Industrial Estate in Bintulu were anticipated to commence operations in the last quarter of this year. The two plants will produce refined bleached and deodorised palm oil, palm olein, palm stearins and palm fatty acids distillate catering primarily for exports.
In a recent report, BLD indicated plans to set up a kernel crushing plant in the same area that will commence operations next year. Its proposal to buy almost 50% in Wawasan Sedar Sdn Bhd, which is involved in oil palm plantations, milling and sales of related products and logs trading, is still pending approvals. If successful, the acquisition would increase its core plantation holdings by 42,007 acres while increasing internal source of CPO supply for refinery and milling processing capacity. Meanwhile, as the land bank is solely in Malaysia, BLD is not affected by Indonesia’s move to increase export tax on CPO to 6.5% from 1.5% previously. The plantation company continues to affirm its financial strength. During the first quarter ended March 31, it reported a 27% jump in net profit of RM5.6mil, translating into an EPS of 6.57 sen. Net tangible asset stood at RM4.11 as of end March while net gearing ratio stood at a healthy 0.25 times. It has declared a final dividend of 10 sen per share for FY06, which would go ex on Aug 13.

Rated a buy

WHILE THE fundamentals of crude palm oil (CPO) remain solid and the prospect of biodiesel usage is likely to spur further demand for the commodity, these factors could have already been priced into the recent strong price action of plantation stocks. According to local stockbroker OSK Investment Research, the sector is no longer cheap as practically every laggard plantation stock has already rallied. Under such circumstances, stock picking is indeed crucial and investors are likely to scout for those whose valuations are still lower than the rest as they present a lower risk proposition.

According to another local research house, CIMB Investment Research, one such stock which is still worth a buy is BLD Plantation Bhd. The research house has recently initiated coverage on this small- cap plantation stock with a `buy' call and a target price of RM2.60, based on an FY2005 price earnings (PE) ratio of 7.7x, which places the stock at a 50% discount to the sectoral average of 15.4x. With the sector having rallied strongly, it's not surprising that BLD Plantation with its still low pricing is favoured as an alternative to the larger-cap plantation stocks. Still, with just a small planted landbank, this Sarawak-based plantation company will find it hard to capture the attention of the larger institutional funds in the country.

BLD is a Sarawak-based investment holding company whose subsidiaries are involved in the cultivation and processing of oil palm, sales of related products, integrated composting process and other ancillary activities. The company was listed on the main board of Bursa Malaysia on July 21, 2003 and is 43% owned by the Lau family. Datuk Seri Dr Lau Hui Kang is one of the founders of BLD and has been its managing director since its inception. To his credit, the 79-year-old Lau has indeed successfully transformed the company from a timber-based company into a profitable oil palm planter. His son, Datuk Henry Lau Lee Kong, is now an executive director of the company and looks set to continue his father's legacy.

The group is now mainly involved in oil palm cultivation after phasing out its involvement in the timber business in 2004. BLD owns and operates 50,900 hectares (ha) of land designated for oil palm cultivation in Sarawak. However, only 33% or 16,600 ha of its landbank is planted, and out of this, only 9,300 ha are matured. The group also operates a 60 metric-tonne palm oil mill in Sawai Land District, Sarawak.

The group's estates are relatively young (see Chart 1), with 63% of its estates aged below eight years old. BLD achieved an FFB yield of around 18 tonnes/ha in 2004, which is slightly below the industry average of 18.6 tonnes/ha for Malaysia, because of its young estates profile. According to CIMB Research, the expectation is that the FFB yield will increase by 5% to 10% per annum in line with the maturing trend of its estates. On the other hand, the group's mill is fairly efficient with a utilisation rate of above 90%. Meanwhile, the group's oil extraction rate is 22.8% and its palm kernel extraction rate is at 5.2%. These numbers are broadly in line with the industry average, says CIMB Research.

Weaker earnings in FY05 as CPO prices head south

CIMB Research expects BLD's FY05 net profit to decline 7% as stronger FFB output from the estates will not fully cover the likely lower CPO price for the year and the rising cost of production. The research house expects the group's average CPO price to fall by 9% in FY05 to RM1,450/tonne due to a stronger output of edible oils by Malaysia and the United States. The likely poorer financial performance has, in fact, been reflected in the group's weaker quarterly results. First quarter (1Q) FY05 turnover fell 21% and net profit dropped 29%, while for the half-year results, there was a 16% drop in revenue and a 5.5% decline in net profit.

Brighter earnings prospects for 2006 though

However, BLD's earnings per share (EPS) is poised to recover by 10% in 2006 due to the anticipated rise in CPO prices and FFB output. Slower growth of global edible oil output, coupled with rising demand for biodiesel, is expected to drive its average CPO price achieved to an average of RM1,500 per tonne in 2006, assuming an average ringgit exchange rate of RM3.55/US$, says CIMB Research.

Room for expansion

The group has approximately 34,300 ha of plantable land reserves for future expansion. In the immediate term, the group is looking to plant around 1,000 ha of estates per annum only. BLD also plans to build a refinery. According to CIMB Research, BLD should be able to finance the development of new land areas on a progressive basis given its positive cash flow generation and its RM9.1 million net cash position as at end- FY04.

The risks

The major issue in relation to investing in the stock could be the poor liquidity of the shares, says CIMB Research. Note that the major shareholder owns a 42.4% stake and the top-30 shareholders collectively held 83.2% of the company as at May 4, 2005. The average daily turnover in the past year has only been 33,900 shares. Another foreseeable risk could be the highly cyclical and sensitive nature of CPO price movements, which have a bigger impact on the group as it derives close to 100% of its earnings from the plantation division.

In addition, CPO produced in Sarawak is also subject to a CPO sales tax, which lowers BLD's profitability compared with its peers whose estates are located in Peninsular Malaysia. The Sarawak Government levies a sales tax of 5% for every tonne of CPO produced and sold at or above RM1,500/tonne. The sales tax is 2.5% for CPO sold at an average price of RM1,000- 1,500/tonne.

The valuation

According to CIMB Research, the stock is trading at 6.4x FY05 PE, which is undemanding relative to the plantation sector's average PE of 15.4x for the calendar year (CY) 2005 (see Table 2). A possible reason for the huge discount could be due to BLD's poorer share liquidity and smaller planted estates relative to the bigger-cap plantation players such as IOI Corporation Bhd and Golden Hope Plantation Bhd. Nevertheless, the research house has put a `buy' rating on the stock with a target price of RM2.60, based on a forecast FY2005 PE of 7.7x.

This still places the stock at a 50% discount to the sector's average PE of 15.4x, implying a wide buffer for any upside. Besides, the research house also notes that the stock is supported by its 4% dividend yield and a 46% discount of its share price to its net tangible asset (NTA). With its small base and low share liquidity, BLD is not likely to appeal to large institutional funds, but for the smaller funds and retail-based investors, the stock sure looks like a bargain if pricing is the only consideration. A catalyst for the stock could be a more aggressive approach by management to grow the group's huge reserve landbank, a likely boost that investors will surely look forward to for BLD in the future.

Copyright 2005
Provided by ProQuest Information and Learning Company. All rights Reserved.

View more issues: Oct 1, 2005, Oct 16, 2005, Nov 16, 2005

James S "Rated a buy". Malaysian Business. Nov 1, 2005. FindArticles.com. 05 Jun. 2008. http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn6207/is_20051101/ai_n24909335

summary bldplnt mar08q1

Current quarter

Revenue 60,567
Profit before tax 26,825
Profit for the period 19,506
Profit attributable to
the parent 19,313
eps 22.72sen

selling price of inventory :unstated
-------------------------------------------------------

figure of the month:
cpo / pk / mpob benchmark
Jan-07 4,445 1,269 1950
Feb-07 3,462 796 1950
Mar-07 3,683 856 1950
Apr-07 3,665 799 -
May-07 4,031 883 -
Jun-07 3,687 810 -
Jul-07 4,657 983 -
Aug-07 5,939 1362 -
Sep-07 7,084 1580 -
Oct-07 5,894 1,340 -
Nov-07 7,193 1,641 -
Dec-07 5,169 1,297 -
Jan-08 4,962 1247 3490
Feb-08 4083 1053 3490
Mar-08 3,816 876 3490
Apr-08 4,768 1,094 -

ffb production monthly figure:unstated , very eccentric

forthwith comment by author : compare between 08q1 and 07q1 , adhere to proof provided by benchmarking and inventory consume(balance sheet date), bldplnt has a inclination to better bargaining power of average selling price.

----------------------------------------

note: acquisition on wawasan sedar was waived.
link here

summary on 2006
BLD Plantation (BLDP) is an investment holding company while its subsidiaries are principally involved in the cultivation of oil palm, processing of fresh fruit bunches and sale of related products. As at end-2006, the group’s total land bank was approximately 53,000 hectares (ha), of which around 10,300 ha were matured areas.

take review to annual report 2007 , the Group has a total landbank 53,030 hectares of which about 23,000 ha are oil palm planted areas with about 50% maturity. We expect output to grow at a sustainable pace, as more palm trees will mature over the next 2 to 3 years before the crop production peaks. We are also aggressively sustaining our planting programmes in the next 5 years to ensure that there is an increasing ratio of own supply of the related products for our mill, Refinery and Crushing Plant consumption.

The Fresh Fruit Bunches production of the Group grew about 3.6% to about 211,000 metric tonnes compared to the previous year. The production of Crude Palm Oil in 2007 was about 59,000 metric tonnes which was a decrease of about 26% against 2006, mainly due to the reduction of FFB received from external suppliers and small holders as a result of more mills come on stream. The mill operated at approximately 75% of its capacity and the Oil Extraction Rate was achieved at about 21.94%.

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research on 29 December 2006.
No major hurdles expected for Wawasan acquisition. The Securities Commission has waived the requirement for KTS Holdings and PAC to make a mandatory general offer for BLD Plantation. However, this is subject to the approval of BLD’s independent shareholders, appointment of an independent adviser and submission by KTS and PAC that they have not purchased shares in BLD Plantation in six months. Also, the independent adviser’s circular to the shareholders has to be approved by the SC. We believe these conditions will most likely be met and hence, do not see major hurdles to the deal, especially in view of the good CPO price prospects.

Upbeat CPO price outlook to support deal. The bullish prospects for CPO price in 2007 and 2008 will mitigate the earnings-dilutive effect of the proposed acquisition. We earlier estimated that it could dilute BLD’s EPS by as much as 19% in FY06, based on a CPO price assumption of RM1,480 per tonne. In view of our expectation that CPO price will average RM1,850 in 2007 and RM1,900 in 2008, we now expect the acquisition to have a neutral impact on EPS.

Upping FY07 EPS. We retain our EPS forecast of 20.4 sen for 2006 but have raised our FY07 estimate by 26% to 34.9 sen after factoring in the recent upward revision of our CPO price forecast. We recently increased our CPO price assumption from RM1,680/tonne to RM1,850 for 2007 and from RM1,730 to RM1,900 for 2008 to account for the severe drought in Australia and some parts of Indonesia as well as new exchange rate assumptions.

Upgrade to BUY. Our target price for BLD Plantation has been raised from RM2.50 to RM3.10 in view of our earnings upgrade. There is no change to our target price basis. We continue to apply a forward target P/E of 9x, which is based on a 50% discount to the average plantation sector P/E. In line with our target price upgrade, we are upgrading our call from hold to BUY. The stock offers 25% upside to our new target price and a dividend yield of 4%. The main factor that will drive the share price is a CPO price upswing.

Recent developments
Conditional clearance from SC for proposed waiver. The Securities Commission has approved the proposed waivers from making a mandatory general offer for BLD Plantation by KTS Holdings and PAC. However, this is subject to the approval of BLD’s independent shareholders, appointment of an independent adviser and submission by KTS and PAC that they have not purchased shares in BLD Plantation in six months. Also, the independent adviser’s circular to the shareholders has to be approved by the SC. We believe these conditions will most likely be met and hence, do not see major hurdles to the deal, especially in view of the good CPO price prospects.

Recap on acquisition. In Jul 06, BLD Plantation proposed to acquire a 39% stake in Wawasan Sedar for RM117.9m and subscribe for a 17.9% stake in Wawasan for RM93.7m. The company will also be granted subscription rights to raise its stake from 49.9% to slightly more than 50%. The purchase will be funded by RM211.6m bank borrowings and 20.8m new shares issued at RM2.40 per share. Positive on plans to expand land bank… The deal will boost BLD’s plantation land bank by 32% to 69,818ha, which when fully planted, will turn it from a small planter with approximately 17,000ha of planted estates to a mid-sized planter. The acquisition will also increase the group’s internal sourcing of CPO for its proposed refinery.

… but price appears rich. Our only reservation is the pricing for the estates, which works out to an EV/ha of RM28,413. This appears expensive relative to the implied market value of around RM12,350/ha for BLD’s own planted estates. On a historical P/E basis, the purchase price for the initial 39% stake in Wawasan also appears hefty at 33x P/E, which is a huge premium to BLD’s historical P/E valuation. Upbeat CPO price outlook to support deal. The bullish prospects for CPO price in 2007 and 2008 will mitigate the earnings-dilutive effect of the proposed acquisition.
We earlier estimated that it could dilute BLD’s EPS by as much as 19% in FY06, based on a CPO price assumption of RM1,480 per tonne. In view of our expectation that CPO price will average RM1,850 in 2007 and RM1,900 in 2008, we now expect the acquisition to have a neutral impact on EPS.


Earnings outlook
Upping FY07 EPS. We retain our EPS forecast of 20.4 sen for 2006 but have raised our FY07 estimate by 26% to 34.9 sen after factoring in our recent upward revision to our CPO price forecast. We recently increased our CPO price assumption from RM1,680/tonne to RM1,850 for 2007 and from RM1,730 to RM1,900 for 2008. Our earnings forecast assumes that BLD Plant will record a better 4Q06 performance due to the higher CPO price achieved. Overall, we expect it to show a 4% decline in FY06 net profit due to the absence of RM5.2m annual amortisation of negative goodwill following the adoption of FRS 136. For FY07, we expect BLD to record a 71% jump in net profit to RM29.7m due mainly to higher achieved CPO prices.

Recommendation
Upgrade to BUY. We continue to base our target price on a target forward P/E of 9x. However, our target price for BLD Plantation has been raised from RM2.50 to RM3.10 in view of our earnings upgrade. In line with our target price upgrade, we are raising our call on BLD Plantation from hold to BUY. The stock now offers 24% upside to our new target price and a dividend yield of 4%. The main factor that will drive the share price is a CPO price upswing.

research on 29 December 2006 -end

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filed: 08jun02: BLDP BM Quarterly Report Mar 2008.pdf , BLD Plantation update sp.pdf , BLD Plantation_29122006_Upgrade to Buy-BURSA.pdf , bld month figure to april08.xls