JAKARTA: Indonesia will keep its palm oil export tax at zero in January due to low global palm oil prices.
But it may raise slightly base export price for crude palm oil by US$3 to US$418 (US$1 = RM3.47) a tonne in January from December, Diah Maulida, director general of foreign trade at the Trade Ministry said.
"We will keep the palm oil export tax at zero per cent because average prices are still well below US$700 a tonne," Maulida said.
"As for the palm base export prices, they have been agreed in the meeting but we still wait for a Trade Ministry decree," she said. - Reuters
文中所提到的US$700应该不对，新的税务最低征税额是US$550。由于CPO价格在US$550以下，因此明年一月的export tax依旧是0。
较早前我在这里提到明年应该提到的事项，但是我却忽略了一样事情。
印尼明年一月的export tax依旧是0。
31 December 2008
提防2008年最后一季可能出现的存货贬值
对棕油提炼来说，CPO剧烈下跌是最大的隐忧，但是，只要CPO能止跌，提炼业就能恢复盈利了。
今年第四季，偏重中下游的提炼厂商（如TSH），可能会面临一季的扭曲亏损。
只要渡过这门关口，以后必能恢复盈利。
因此，他们的冲击比偏重种植的公司小得多，只是他们必须突破“一门”关口而已。
其实不必把问题想得太复杂，参考Shell refinery的模式就可以了，原理是一样的。
这篇博文没有特别意义，只是考量风险管理，建立危机意识，和做好投机和投资准备。
今年第四季，偏重中下游的提炼厂商（如TSH），可能会面临一季的扭曲亏损。
只要渡过这门关口，以后必能恢复盈利。
因此，他们的冲击比偏重种植的公司小得多，只是他们必须突破“一门”关口而已。
其实不必把问题想得太复杂，参考Shell refinery的模式就可以了，原理是一样的。
这篇博文没有特别意义，只是考量风险管理，建立危机意识，和做好投机和投资准备。
BSTEAD尾盘涨22分
2008年最后一天，股价任何异动都被视为合理。
今天BSTEAD尾盘涨22分，但同时也是Tan Sri Dato' Lodin Wok Kamaruddin抛售股权的一刻。
Date of Disposal：31 December 2008
Sale Price per Share (RM)：3.42
Number of Shares：550,000
% of Issued Shares：0.0844
对于这起事，不必做特别结论，也不必祈求任何结果。
只是想做记录，增加 blogsearch 的多元性而已。
今天BSTEAD尾盘涨22分，但同时也是Tan Sri Dato' Lodin Wok Kamaruddin抛售股权的一刻。
Date of Disposal：31 December 2008
Sale Price per Share (RM)：3.42
Number of Shares：550,000
% of Issued Shares：0.0844
对于这起事，不必做特别结论，也不必祈求任何结果。
只是想做记录，增加 blogsearch 的多元性而已。
25 December 2008
没有题材的asiatic，竟被挖题材。卖出讯号乍现。
报纸作为大户保姆，时常爆出误导性言论，其实，万变不离其宗，因为“标的物”被高估了。
当有公司被“传”有大动作，就是抛售讯号，万变不离其宗。
asiatic也躲不过被“传”的漩涡。
asiatic的估价，有两个值得work out出来的地方。
其一是KULAI的ISKANDAR DEVELOPMENT REGION （IDR）的土地估值。
asiatic位于kulai的地库，如果按1亩RM130000估价，总值近7-8亿，这相等于asiatic每股RM1的价值。
这些土地都是freehold的，少了一些“惊喜感”。
再来，这片土地已经在2007年重估。
惊喜度：20%
asiatic相信不再replanting这片土地，全部转为产业用途。不然，为什么只用了18年的Kulai Besar Oil Mill，需被淘汰为产业发展？可见asiatic的产业发展是势在必行，破釜沉舟的。
其二是short term investment and net cash。
AS AT 30/9/2008，asiatic持有2.7亿净现金和3.8亿的短期投资项目。
这些短期项目是money market instruments，不存在风险。
这相等于asiatic每股RM0.86的价值。
综合上述两个因素，asiatic每股买入成本是RM3.46 - RM1 - RM0.86=RM1.6
若是以每股40sen eps，本益比是4倍而已。
若不以土地价值计入买入成本，本益比是6.5倍偏低水平。
对于种植领域来说，这个水平是相当便宜的。
既然如此便宜，我们为什么要猜疑这些“传”言呢？
我们当然要猜疑，就像我们需要猜疑airasia和tanjong。
好公司不需要猜疑，但你要怎么知道一家公司好不好？
Asiatic从RM2.60爬升至RM3.68，也该休息了。
卖出理由
总体而言asiatic不是一间“利益最大化”的种植公司，他也是一间冲击程度较其他公司大的种植公司，因此6.5倍本益比还是昂贵的。
Asiatic不能善用肥料，竟被雨水冲走。
产业发展只有10% margin，和产业领域公司相比，差。
市面上的基因实验室已有不少，asiatic太迟起步了。
Asiatic在印尼拿了不少hak guna usaha（栽种权），如果不付诸行动，也只是一张不会生钱的白纸。
虽然油棕树集中在高产值年龄，而且还是集中在冠全马的sabah州(靠近在hsplant estate的东北方)，但asiatic从来没有突破22.5mt/ha，这是不可饶恕的。(包括截至2008年jan-nov11个月表现)
如果cpo持续在RM1600水平，asiatic的年盈利将是1.7亿，相等于22.4sen的eps。根据派息历史，预计只有5sen股息，不算高息股。
asiatic平均的开发成本，2007年是每公顷RM5240，2006年是RM3080，取平均值是RM4160，这比理想值RM3000高出了许多。2007年asiatic执行了14000公顷的森林夷平费用，这笔费用不详，因此2006年较能比较反映开发成本(比较2006年物价，还是高）。
我只能找到一个asiatic的好话，那就是董事薪金只有250万，是2007年营业额的千分之三。
这是好话吗？
对于这个“大”公司，听信专家讲的很容易被套牢。
最近市场“盛传”asiatic从genting手中接过和美国公司的商场联营计划，development cost为20亿，如果是50-50联营也要10亿。
反正“盛传”是不用本钱的。
或许是我对于市场过于悲观，因此多数都是卖出建议。
请慎重考虑我的出发点，买卖自负。
当有公司被“传”有大动作，就是抛售讯号，万变不离其宗。
asiatic也躲不过被“传”的漩涡。
asiatic的估价，有两个值得work out出来的地方。
其一是KULAI的ISKANDAR DEVELOPMENT REGION （IDR）的土地估值。
asiatic位于kulai的地库，如果按1亩RM130000估价，总值近7-8亿，这相等于asiatic每股RM1的价值。
这些土地都是freehold的，少了一些“惊喜感”。
再来，这片土地已经在2007年重估。
惊喜度：20%
asiatic相信不再replanting这片土地，全部转为产业用途。不然，为什么只用了18年的Kulai Besar Oil Mill，需被淘汰为产业发展？可见asiatic的产业发展是势在必行，破釜沉舟的。
其二是short term investment and net cash。
AS AT 30/9/2008，asiatic持有2.7亿净现金和3.8亿的短期投资项目。
这些短期项目是money market instruments，不存在风险。
这相等于asiatic每股RM0.86的价值。
综合上述两个因素，asiatic每股买入成本是RM3.46 - RM1 - RM0.86=RM1.6
若是以每股40sen eps，本益比是4倍而已。
若不以土地价值计入买入成本，本益比是6.5倍偏低水平。
对于种植领域来说，这个水平是相当便宜的。
既然如此便宜，我们为什么要猜疑这些“传”言呢？
我们当然要猜疑，就像我们需要猜疑airasia和tanjong。
好公司不需要猜疑，但你要怎么知道一家公司好不好？
Asiatic从RM2.60爬升至RM3.68，也该休息了。
卖出理由
总体而言asiatic不是一间“利益最大化”的种植公司，他也是一间冲击程度较其他公司大的种植公司，因此6.5倍本益比还是昂贵的。
Asiatic不能善用肥料，竟被雨水冲走。
产业发展只有10% margin，和产业领域公司相比，差。
市面上的基因实验室已有不少，asiatic太迟起步了。
Asiatic在印尼拿了不少hak guna usaha（栽种权），如果不付诸行动，也只是一张不会生钱的白纸。
虽然油棕树集中在高产值年龄，而且还是集中在冠全马的sabah州(靠近在hsplant estate的东北方)，但asiatic从来没有突破22.5mt/ha，这是不可饶恕的。(包括截至2008年jan-nov11个月表现)
如果cpo持续在RM1600水平，asiatic的年盈利将是1.7亿，相等于22.4sen的eps。根据派息历史，预计只有5sen股息，不算高息股。
asiatic平均的开发成本，2007年是每公顷RM5240，2006年是RM3080，取平均值是RM4160，这比理想值RM3000高出了许多。2007年asiatic执行了14000公顷的森林夷平费用，这笔费用不详，因此2006年较能比较反映开发成本(比较2006年物价，还是高）。
我只能找到一个asiatic的好话，那就是董事薪金只有250万，是2007年营业额的千分之三。
这是好话吗？
对于这个“大”公司，听信专家讲的很容易被套牢。
最近市场“盛传”asiatic从genting手中接过和美国公司的商场联营计划，development cost为20亿，如果是50-50联营也要10亿。
反正“盛传”是不用本钱的。
或许是我对于市场过于悲观，因此多数都是卖出建议。
请慎重考虑我的出发点，买卖自负。
22 December 2008
17 December 2008
停止肥料的疑问
ahmad zubir为首的一些人预测cpo有望回到RM2000-RM2500，这是不可实现的，中东的海市蜃楼的迹象已日益明显，即使油价能回到60美元，那么cpo的breakeven也不过是RM1600，这要怎么实现RM2000的cpo？
在利好方面，大型种植公司的成本有望回到RM900。但是，成本越低，cpo下跌空间越大。
如果连大型种植公司都停止放肥，就可以预警，半年到一年内的局势不会好转。
我们假设，半年的每公顷肥料成本是RM1000。
如果半年停止放肥，每公顷流失的cpo产量是320KG，这是根据“直线式”方式，“逐月”减产所计算出来的。
产量损失：0.32 x RM1600 = RM512。
如果半年内cpo price都保持在RM1600，停放肥可省下RM488。
【edit on 2008年12月19】
我们假设，半年的每公顷肥料成本是RM1000。
如果半年停止放肥，每公顷流失的cpo产量是640KG，这是根据“直线式”方式，“逐月”减产所计算出来的。
产量损失：0.64 x RM1600 = RM1024。
如果半年内cpo price都保持在RM1600，停放肥不可省下开销。
上图所示的例子是，前半年停止施肥，产量逐步流失。施肥后的半年，产量逐渐恢复。
所以正确cpo流失应是640kg（红色区），不是320kg，更正。
【end of edit】
对植物营养而言，施肥量和产量是曲线关系，如果画成图表(X-axis=肥料，Y-axis=产量)，他是一个倒立的U，如果肥料过量，产量减少到0。放肥的意义是，只要marginal fertilizer cost < marginal production，那么肥料就该放。
停放和少放，在意义上是不同的。
如果cpo达到RM4000，那么一棵油棕树放15kg的肥料是不亏本的，如果cpo是RM1600，那么该放多少kg肥料才是恰当的？
上市公司的平均施肥量是10kg。
无论如何，都不应该是停放。
以上的举例只是博主个人疑问，不具任何专业意见，博主和普通人一样，不看科研报告。
在利好方面，大型种植公司的成本有望回到RM900。但是，成本越低，cpo下跌空间越大。
如果连大型种植公司都停止放肥，就可以预警，半年到一年内的局势不会好转。
如果半年停止放肥，每公顷流失的cpo产量是320KG，这是根据“直线式”方式，“逐月”减产所计算出来的。
产量损失：0.32 x RM1600 = RM512。
如果半年内cpo price都保持在RM1600，停放肥可省下RM488。
【edit on 2008年12月19】
我们假设，半年的每公顷肥料成本是RM1000。
如果半年停止放肥，每公顷流失的cpo产量是640KG，这是根据“直线式”方式，“逐月”减产所计算出来的。
产量损失：0.64 x RM1600 = RM1024。
如果半年内cpo price都保持在RM1600，停放肥不可省下开销。
上图所示的例子是，前半年停止施肥，产量逐步流失。施肥后的半年，产量逐渐恢复。
所以正确cpo流失应是640kg（红色区），不是320kg，更正。
【end of edit】
对植物营养而言，施肥量和产量是曲线关系，如果画成图表(X-axis=肥料，Y-axis=产量)，他是一个倒立的U，如果肥料过量，产量减少到0。放肥的意义是，只要marginal fertilizer cost < marginal production，那么肥料就该放。
停放和少放，在意义上是不同的。
如果cpo达到RM4000，那么一棵油棕树放15kg的肥料是不亏本的，如果cpo是RM1600，那么该放多少kg肥料才是恰当的？
上市公司的平均施肥量是10kg。
无论如何，都不应该是停放。
以上的举例只是博主个人疑问，不具任何专业意见，博主和普通人一样，不看科研报告。
08 December 2008
kretam的“后凭单时代”
kretam-wa是在2003年的一系列重组计划中产生的，总发行量是57,618,375。
直至2008年10月24日，他的流通量是56,979,743。
10月24日以后，只有2,635,550股凭单转换。最大一笔的转换，是1,691,550单位，相信这是CEO Freddy Lim Nyuk Sang转换的。但是Freddy Lim Nyuk Sang并没有把他的所有凭单完全转换。
kretam-wa持股量 As At 15 April 2008
Santraprise Sdn Bhd is related with Freddy Lim.
kretam-wa已经在2008年12月2日截止，意味着有5434万股凭单作废。
或许我们会认为Freddy Lim没有钱，不愿把所有凭单转成股票。
“没有钱”是不能成立的，因为Freddy Lim自2008年3月以来，透过各种方式(债券/股票/私下协议)，累积kretam股票。六月中他透过“私下协议”买入了15,589,726股(Acquisition of shares by private treaty)。这批股权相信是从affin bank脱售的。
这也意味着Freddy Lim的kretam股权已有至少29%。
比较之前的股东表
kretam shareholder As At 15 April 2008
Santraprise Sdn Bhd and Nasalim Sdn Bhd is related with Freddy Lim.
比较奇特的是，affin bank不曾公布他们已经不再是主要股东了，废渣一个。
这样松散的股权，不知会不会去荷兰？
不管怎么看，现在还是安全的。
●1997，1998才是kretam下陷的时候，Freddy Lim Nyuk Sang是在98年12月受委为CEO的，所以他不是破坏者（他可能是白武士）。从98年打滚到现在，要泡沫早就来了。
●股权松散是债务重组造成的。
●Freddy Lim Nyuk Sang和其他人士，为了继续给kretam经营下去，借了几千万给kretam，相信有一半已经被债券抵消。（affin bank的持股也是这么来的。）
除Affin外,RHB Sakura,Bumiputra-Commerce ,也是convertible loan stock的主要持有人。但已经是10年前的事，这都是个人推测。
旧闻(可跳过)
Monday, June 22, 1998,
KRETAM HOLDINGS: Subsidiary & Associate Default on Interest
-----------------------------------------------------------
Innosabah Securities Sdn Bhd, a subsidiary of Kretam Holdings Bhd, which is listed in the KLSE, had defaulted on 3 interest payments and principal payments of some overdraft and revolving credit facility amounting to RM186.5mil., of which, RM170.7mil is guaranteed by Kretam.
An agreement has been signed to sell subsidiary Geodopa Holdings (Sabah) Sdn Bhd for RM112mil. The proceeds would be used to regularise its payments for the facility.
Kretam's associate, Jeffa Construction Sdn Bhd, had defaulted on interest payment of bridging loan facility.
Kretam guaranteed the RM15mil facility to Jeffa.
Large doubtful debts provisions in Innosabah caused Kretam to register a loss before tax of RM67.9mil for 1997.
Increasing interest rates and tight cashflow suffered by its non-plantation businesses contributed to the loss.
Debt recovery problems and weak market conditions have stricken Innosabah's cashflow nad it was considering negotiating a restucturing scheme with the banks.
Jeffa is experiencing a bearish property market and is now negotiating to restructure the bridging loan.
kretam股票是我在blog里唯一“鼓励”买进的股票，至于其他的股票如carotec,ioicorp,hsplant虽然讲了他们一些好话，但都不是买入建议。
所幸，kretam成为了跌得最少的种植股（utdplt除外），他从140sen下跌到目前的RM93sen，最低点是74sen。但这不是找借口，输就是输。何况应该说是他的凭单救了股价。
当初鼓励买进kretam的价位是Rm1.4，是cpo RM3000+++的时候，抱持着“随便写，随便买，肯定赚”的心态，因此没有在意转换债券的负面因素。
97/98破产至今，kretam都离不开“sabahan”固定印象，很有可能捅出篓子的那批人和目前的白武士是同属一个体系，也就是说，白武士“几亿几亿”救kretam只是奉行善后工作而已。
我们无法了解有钱人越变越有钱的原因，那么就更无法知道有钱人是怎么在股市变现了。
但悲观情绪是没有用的。投资者能做的是谨慎看待kretam债台高筑的可能性。
2007年底，kretam的总债务是7833万，RCSLS(债券种类)占去了7613万，这些债券可以在2010年以前，全数变成股票。比较令人担忧是，loan stock holder有选择赎回现金的权力。
2003年的Debt Restructuring Agreement
随着kretam的重组计划完成，该年他的shareholders' fund，从-132,971,000增加到了135,406,000，增长了267,377,000.
以下是重组系列的简表，有误差，只做参考。
1.发放RCSLS-A,抵消债务。
2.发放RCSLS-A1,抵消债务。
3.发放RCSLS-B,抵消债务。
4.发放RCSLS-C,ICULS,和cash。抵消RM88,865,164债务。债主放弃剩余RM59,243,442债务。
5.发放ICULS,凭单,和cash。抵消RCSLS的一年内利息。
6.特别新股，免费派给特定债主。
7.附加股送凭单。
4个种类的RCSLS的利息是根据特定因素调整的，上表的利息只能参考，这些特定因素包括脱售水利发电公司，cpo价格，脱售innosabah securities的结果。
ICULS不可以现金赎回，只能转换为股票。在此不必叙述。
RCSLS可以股票转换或现金转换。但是现金转换是有“特定时间表”和“特定条件”的。
如上表所示，RCSLS-C已到期。
RCSLS-C的现金转换的“特定条件”为脱售innosabah。
但至今innosabah依旧是“待售中”。
因此，RCSLS-C holder 召开meeting，他们选择把RCSLS-C转换成股票。
如果当时kretam的股价是65sen，kretam就必须赔偿 35sen x 35,000,000给RCSLS-C holder，这笔赔偿费需从脱售innosabah中扣除。
技术角度而言，如果当时kretam股价是20sen，那么RCSLS-C holder可以得到kretam股票和80sen赔偿。
如上表所示，RCSLS-A1已到期。
RCSLS-A1的现金转换的“特定条件”为脱售Jeffa Construction.
虽然Jeffa Construction无法如期脱售，RCSLS-A1还是被现金赎回了，因为RCSLS-A1 holders能够召开meeting投票决定现金赎回。
其他债券的“特定条件”是。。。。
(i) RCSLS-A
首4000万的“特定条件”是脱售Yunnan Dehong Husong He Power Development Corporation Co. Ltd.
但是，yunnan脱售价是RM72,385,450。
因此RCSLS-A holder享有“赔偿(按息)”（compensation settlement）和“提早赎回”（accelerated redemption）的权力。
在扣除4000万和赔偿后，提早赎回单位是3000万。
(iii) RCSLS-B
无特定条件。 只有开会决定换股票或换现金。
(其他)cpo price & sinking fund 1
从2003年8月开始，凡是自己estate供应的cpo，售价只要超过RM1500，就必须把多出的钱存进sinking fund 1，公式是 (售价 - RM1500) x 50%
sinking fund的钱可用来提早赎回RCSLS-A, RCSLS-A1 and RCSLS-B，如果上述债券都赎回了，剩余的sinking fund 就必须拿来赔偿较早前放弃(waiver)债务的债主，总计RM59,314,000，时限为2010年8月止。
(其他)sinking fund 2
sinking fund 2是用来存放10% of cash flow from plantation operation，主要是用来赎回class A 和 B。
与waiver无关。
The Company is required to place a sum equal to 10% of the proceeds arising from the operating cash flows generated from its plantation operations comprising the revenue arising from sale of crude palm oil, palm kernel and fresh fruit bunches management/data processing fees, planting advisory fees, rental and other income in Sinking Fund Account No. 2. Such proceeds shall be applied on an annual basis towards redemption of each of the RCSLS-A and RCSLS-B ranking in that order of priority payment.
sinking fund的存款一直都保持很低，原因相信是从不间断的债券赎回。
回到2008年9月季报
从账面上估计，kretam估计还剩下4800万单位的RCSLS还没赎回，这是以RCSLS账面值x1.1作为假设。
kretam的cash有RM3227万。如果加上11月的凭单转换，可再增加RM263.6万。
这也是说如果kretam能够在两年内周转出RM1309万现金，那么两年内他就能结束漫长的被讨债生涯。这是极容易办到的，因为kretam可以在好市是赚到4000-4800万的净利，那么，在坏市赚到700万/年也不是难事。如果再加上折旧开销就更不必多说了。
不利因素
innosabah已折腾多年，一直找不到买主，若扣除2007年近1000万的other income，innosabah不是一间很会赚钱的公司。如果他没有investment banking执照，那就更不值钱了，当然这也不表示有执照就是值钱。
一旦innosabah售出，就要立刻赔偿RCSLS-C的损失，估计有RM1225万。
如果cpo价格不好，对kretam不好，是废话。
如果cpo价格太好，对kretam不划算，因为多赚的要用来赔偿RM59,314,000。如前面所言，公式是 (售价 - RM1500) x 50% 。
2008年9月，kretam的累计亏损是RM-69,652,000，从这里可以推断，kretam3年内不会给股息。如果cpo不好价，5年都可能不给。
虽然accumulated profit不完全是派息的条件，但这种推断准确度有9成。
估值
应该给他2008年4.5倍本益比。这是因为整体种植业的2008年平均是7.5倍，从报告看来的。
kretam的sandakan产量几年来居高不下, cpo也以合理价出售，因此抵消了许多不利因素。
tawau的地段很年轻，目前无利可图。
如果继续烂市，债券持有人转换股票的意愿不会太高，相信kretam的股权只会保持在184mil股（已加上凭单转换）。
如果今年kretam净利是4400mils，那么他的合理价理应是RM1.076。
如果加上“铁定”会转换但未转换的kretam-LA，kretam的股权会是242mil股。
那么他的合理价理应是82sen。
回归现实残酷面，kretam不应该回到RM1以上，kretam是很“忍得”的团体，他们打滚了10多年，从无到有(重组)，不会在乎等多几年。
你可以尝试说服自己，把本益比降至3倍（合理价54.5sen)。如果你手中有票，建议售出。
原因是这种股票上升阻力很大。
或许看图预测能帮助你。
直至2008年10月24日，他的流通量是56,979,743。
10月24日以后，只有2,635,550股凭单转换。最大一笔的转换，是1,691,550单位，相信这是CEO Freddy Lim Nyuk Sang转换的。但是Freddy Lim Nyuk Sang并没有把他的所有凭单完全转换。
kretam-wa持股量 As At 15 April 2008
| Freddy Lim Nyuk Sang | 4,940,000 | 8.57% |
|---|---|---|
| Fong Kin Wui | 1,653,166 | 2.87% |
| Mak Ngia Ngia @ Mak Yoke Lum | 1,592,900 | 2.76% |
kretam-wa已经在2008年12月2日截止，意味着有5434万股凭单作废。
或许我们会认为Freddy Lim没有钱，不愿把所有凭单转成股票。
“没有钱”是不能成立的，因为Freddy Lim自2008年3月以来，透过各种方式(债券/股票/私下协议)，累积kretam股票。六月中他透过“私下协议”买入了15,589,726股(Acquisition of shares by private treaty)。这批股权相信是从affin bank脱售的。
这也意味着Freddy Lim的kretam股权已有至少29%。
比较之前的股东表
kretam shareholder As At 15 April 2008
| Freddy Lim Nyuk Sang | 38,354,565 | 21.2% |
|---|---|---|
| Affin Bank Berhad | 15,589,726 | 8.62% |
比较奇特的是，affin bank不曾公布他们已经不再是主要股东了，废渣一个。
这样松散的股权，不知会不会去荷兰？
不管怎么看，现在还是安全的。
●1997，1998才是kretam下陷的时候，Freddy Lim Nyuk Sang是在98年12月受委为CEO的，所以他不是破坏者（他可能是白武士）。从98年打滚到现在，要泡沫早就来了。
●股权松散是债务重组造成的。
●Freddy Lim Nyuk Sang和其他人士，为了继续给kretam经营下去，借了几千万给kretam，相信有一半已经被债券抵消。（affin bank的持股也是这么来的。）
除Affin外,RHB Sakura,Bumiputra-Commerce ,也是convertible loan stock的主要持有人。但已经是10年前的事，这都是个人推测。
旧闻(可跳过)
Monday, June 22, 1998,
KRETAM HOLDINGS: Subsidiary & Associate Default on Interest
-----------------------------------------------------------
Innosabah Securities Sdn Bhd, a subsidiary of Kretam Holdings Bhd, which is listed in the KLSE, had defaulted on 3 interest payments and principal payments of some overdraft and revolving credit facility amounting to RM186.5mil., of which, RM170.7mil is guaranteed by Kretam.
An agreement has been signed to sell subsidiary Geodopa Holdings (Sabah) Sdn Bhd for RM112mil. The proceeds would be used to regularise its payments for the facility.
Kretam's associate, Jeffa Construction Sdn Bhd, had defaulted on interest payment of bridging loan facility.
Kretam guaranteed the RM15mil facility to Jeffa.
Large doubtful debts provisions in Innosabah caused Kretam to register a loss before tax of RM67.9mil for 1997.
Increasing interest rates and tight cashflow suffered by its non-plantation businesses contributed to the loss.
Debt recovery problems and weak market conditions have stricken Innosabah's cashflow nad it was considering negotiating a restucturing scheme with the banks.
Jeffa is experiencing a bearish property market and is now negotiating to restructure the bridging loan.
kretam股票是我在blog里唯一“鼓励”买进的股票，至于其他的股票如carotec,ioicorp,hsplant虽然讲了他们一些好话，但都不是买入建议。
所幸，kretam成为了跌得最少的种植股（utdplt除外），他从140sen下跌到目前的RM93sen，最低点是74sen。但这不是找借口，输就是输。何况应该说是他的凭单救了股价。
当初鼓励买进kretam的价位是Rm1.4，是cpo RM3000+++的时候，抱持着“随便写，随便买，肯定赚”的心态，因此没有在意转换债券的负面因素。
97/98破产至今，kretam都离不开“sabahan”固定印象，很有可能捅出篓子的那批人和目前的白武士是同属一个体系，也就是说，白武士“几亿几亿”救kretam只是奉行善后工作而已。
我们无法了解有钱人越变越有钱的原因，那么就更无法知道有钱人是怎么在股市变现了。
但悲观情绪是没有用的。投资者能做的是谨慎看待kretam债台高筑的可能性。
2007年底，kretam的总债务是7833万，RCSLS(债券种类)占去了7613万，这些债券可以在2010年以前，全数变成股票。比较令人担忧是，loan stock holder有选择赎回现金的权力。
2003年的Debt Restructuring Agreement
随着kretam的重组计划完成，该年他的shareholders' fund，从-132,971,000增加到了135,406,000，增长了267,377,000.
以下是重组系列的简表，有误差，只做参考。
1.发放RCSLS-A,抵消债务。
2.发放RCSLS-A1,抵消债务。
3.发放RCSLS-B,抵消债务。
4.发放RCSLS-C,ICULS,和cash。抵消RM88,865,164债务。债主放弃剩余RM59,243,442债务。
5.发放ICULS,凭单,和cash。抵消RCSLS的一年内利息。
6.特别新股，免费派给特定债主。
7.附加股送凭单。
4个种类的RCSLS的利息是根据特定因素调整的，上表的利息只能参考，这些特定因素包括脱售水利发电公司，cpo价格，脱售innosabah securities的结果。
ICULS不可以现金赎回，只能转换为股票。在此不必叙述。
RCSLS可以股票转换或现金转换。但是现金转换是有“特定时间表”和“特定条件”的。
如上表所示，RCSLS-C已到期。
RCSLS-C的现金转换的“特定条件”为脱售innosabah。
但至今innosabah依旧是“待售中”。
因此，RCSLS-C holder 召开meeting，他们选择把RCSLS-C转换成股票。
如果当时kretam的股价是65sen，kretam就必须赔偿 35sen x 35,000,000给RCSLS-C holder，这笔赔偿费需从脱售innosabah中扣除。
技术角度而言，如果当时kretam股价是20sen，那么RCSLS-C holder可以得到kretam股票和80sen赔偿。
如上表所示，RCSLS-A1已到期。
RCSLS-A1的现金转换的“特定条件”为脱售Jeffa Construction.
虽然Jeffa Construction无法如期脱售，RCSLS-A1还是被现金赎回了，因为RCSLS-A1 holders能够召开meeting投票决定现金赎回。
其他债券的“特定条件”是。。。。
(i) RCSLS-A
首4000万的“特定条件”是脱售Yunnan Dehong Husong He Power Development Corporation Co. Ltd.
但是，yunnan脱售价是RM72,385,450。
因此RCSLS-A holder享有“赔偿(按息)”（compensation settlement）和“提早赎回”（accelerated redemption）的权力。
在扣除4000万和赔偿后，提早赎回单位是3000万。
(iii) RCSLS-B
无特定条件。 只有开会决定换股票或换现金。
(其他)cpo price & sinking fund 1
从2003年8月开始，凡是自己estate供应的cpo，售价只要超过RM1500，就必须把多出的钱存进sinking fund 1，公式是 (售价 - RM1500) x 50%
sinking fund的钱可用来提早赎回RCSLS-A, RCSLS-A1 and RCSLS-B，如果上述债券都赎回了，剩余的sinking fund 就必须拿来赔偿较早前放弃(waiver)债务的债主，总计RM59,314,000，时限为2010年8月止。
(其他)sinking fund 2
sinking fund 2是用来存放10% of cash flow from plantation operation，主要是用来赎回class A 和 B。
与waiver无关。
The Company is required to place a sum equal to 10% of the proceeds arising from the operating cash flows generated from its plantation operations comprising the revenue arising from sale of crude palm oil, palm kernel and fresh fruit bunches management/data processing fees, planting advisory fees, rental and other income in Sinking Fund Account No. 2. Such proceeds shall be applied on an annual basis towards redemption of each of the RCSLS-A and RCSLS-B ranking in that order of priority payment.
sinking fund的存款一直都保持很低，原因相信是从不间断的债券赎回。
回到2008年9月季报
从账面上估计，kretam估计还剩下4800万单位的RCSLS还没赎回，这是以RCSLS账面值x1.1作为假设。
kretam的cash有RM3227万。如果加上11月的凭单转换，可再增加RM263.6万。
这也是说如果kretam能够在两年内周转出RM1309万现金，那么两年内他就能结束漫长的被讨债生涯。这是极容易办到的，因为kretam可以在好市是赚到4000-4800万的净利，那么，在坏市赚到700万/年也不是难事。如果再加上折旧开销就更不必多说了。
不利因素
innosabah已折腾多年，一直找不到买主，若扣除2007年近1000万的other income，innosabah不是一间很会赚钱的公司。如果他没有investment banking执照，那就更不值钱了，当然这也不表示有执照就是值钱。
一旦innosabah售出，就要立刻赔偿RCSLS-C的损失，估计有RM1225万。
如果cpo价格不好，对kretam不好，是废话。
如果cpo价格太好，对kretam不划算，因为多赚的要用来赔偿RM59,314,000。如前面所言，公式是 (售价 - RM1500) x 50% 。
2008年9月，kretam的累计亏损是RM-69,652,000，从这里可以推断，kretam3年内不会给股息。如果cpo不好价，5年都可能不给。
虽然accumulated profit不完全是派息的条件，但这种推断准确度有9成。
估值
应该给他2008年4.5倍本益比。这是因为整体种植业的2008年平均是7.5倍，从报告看来的。
kretam的sandakan产量几年来居高不下, cpo也以合理价出售，因此抵消了许多不利因素。
tawau的地段很年轻，目前无利可图。
如果继续烂市，债券持有人转换股票的意愿不会太高，相信kretam的股权只会保持在184mil股（已加上凭单转换）。
如果今年kretam净利是4400mils，那么他的合理价理应是RM1.076。
如果加上“铁定”会转换但未转换的kretam-LA，kretam的股权会是242mil股。
那么他的合理价理应是82sen。
回归现实残酷面，kretam不应该回到RM1以上，kretam是很“忍得”的团体，他们打滚了10多年，从无到有(重组)，不会在乎等多几年。
你可以尝试说服自己，把本益比降至3倍（合理价54.5sen)。如果你手中有票，建议售出。
原因是这种股票上升阻力很大。
或许看图预测能帮助你。
04 December 2008
hsplant mill开工率只有35%
这是相当不健全的规划。
全马的mill开工率多数是在90%以上，70%已经很少见了。
特殊现象是，hsplant mill只接受自己的油棕果，从不收购外来油棕果，自然的，筛选和称重程序也可以省下来了。
hsplant有四座mill，分别是Jeroco Palm Oil Mill 1, Jeroco Palm Oil Mill 2, Tomanggong Palm Oil mill and Bukit Mas palm oil mill.
每小时能处理175tons的油棕果。
剩余产力是650000tons的油棕果/year。
如果他们可以利用完剩余65%开工率，这实在是一笔“可怕”的收入。
如果以RM250收购价收购FFB，他可以多出RM170,625,000的营业额。 (250 x 650000 x 1.05margin)
5%的profit margin，可以多出812万的税前盈利，相等于1sen的eps。但坏处是帐目会变得不美观，"one of the efficient and cost-effective plantations player" 的名目也不会再出现。
来重温hsplant的两片种植地。第一片是97%，第二片是3%。
四座mill聚集在97%那里。
虽然另外的3%孤立在偏远的地方，但他却是最赚钱的plot。
再看看他的河流分布，这样的地形实在很难收购外来的油棕果。
我们可以假设，hsplant有集体采收的习惯，也就是一次过密集的收集3万公顷的FFB，所以他们才要求这么大容量的生产力，虽然这个理由说不过去。还有一种可能性，黑箱作业比较容易？
若以7%的depreciation估算，至少要700万成本。可以预测，只有35%开工率的厂房面临了“账面亏损”。
看起来开厂没什么搞头，但他却是必要的，因为油棕果不耐放。（况且他们赚不赚钱你又知道？）
但科技越来越进步，现在连废物都能再提取使用。
但也不是说新型的就有绝对优势，因为传统厂的产油品质较高，这是因为榨取率和品质是呈反比的。
全马的mill开工率多数是在90%以上，70%已经很少见了。
特殊现象是，hsplant mill只接受自己的油棕果，从不收购外来油棕果，自然的，筛选和称重程序也可以省下来了。
hsplant有四座mill，分别是Jeroco Palm Oil Mill 1, Jeroco Palm Oil Mill 2, Tomanggong Palm Oil mill and Bukit Mas palm oil mill.
每小时能处理175tons的油棕果。
剩余产力是650000tons的油棕果/year。
如果他们可以利用完剩余65%开工率，这实在是一笔“可怕”的收入。
如果以RM250收购价收购FFB，他可以多出RM170,625,000的营业额。 (250 x 650000 x 1.05margin)
5%的profit margin，可以多出812万的税前盈利，相等于1sen的eps。但坏处是帐目会变得不美观，"one of the efficient and cost-effective plantations player" 的名目也不会再出现。
来重温hsplant的两片种植地。第一片是97%，第二片是3%。
四座mill聚集在97%那里。
虽然另外的3%孤立在偏远的地方，但他却是最赚钱的plot。
再看看他的河流分布，这样的地形实在很难收购外来的油棕果。
我们可以假设，hsplant有集体采收的习惯，也就是一次过密集的收集3万公顷的FFB，所以他们才要求这么大容量的生产力，虽然这个理由说不过去。还有一种可能性，黑箱作业比较容易？
若以7%的depreciation估算，至少要700万成本。可以预测，只有35%开工率的厂房面临了“账面亏损”。
看起来开厂没什么搞头，但他却是必要的，因为油棕果不耐放。（况且他们赚不赚钱你又知道？）
但科技越来越进步，现在连废物都能再提取使用。
但也不是说新型的就有绝对优势，因为传统厂的产油品质较高，这是因为榨取率和品质是呈反比的。
02 December 2008
cost of production per ton of cpo
IOICORP常夸自己的cost of production per ton of cpo（COPcpo）是全马最低的。
刚整合出来的SIME，接近全国平均数，当属正常。
但是，KLK的COPcpo为什么又这样高呢？
备：是我认为高，这与分析员的预测有差别，何况分析员没有说cost of what。
KLK近来不曾说过他们的COPcpo有多少。
我翻找旧资料，KLK在2004年的cost of ffb和COPcpo分别是RM114和RM746。
看出分别吗？
其实COPcpo只是milling的结果。
如果own mill，没own estate，那么他的2008年COPcpo可能是RM2500-RM3500。因为他们要采购FFB（油棕果），再折扣工厂开销。
其实我们可以说，cost of ffb大家大同小异，COPcpo却大不相同。
KLK的COPcpo较高是有原因的，因为他们的工厂需要购买大量的FFB。以Kekayaan Palm Oil Mill为例，他能应付周围的FFB（不管FFB归谁），同时，工厂的折旧和开销也就水涨船高了。
根据自己的推断(不一定对！)，total cost of cpo是这样的=
total cost of ffb(pro-rata) + purchasing of ffb from small planter + milling cost(include financing cost and depreciation cost)
COPcpo不能用来鉴定一间公司“赚不赚钱”。
【edit】
COPcpo = total cost of cpo / output of cpo in tons
举例假设A。
种植成本是RM600万(45000tons ffb)，收购成本是RM200万(5000tons ffb)，milling cost是200万。
cpo output是10000tons (20% OER)
so, COPcpo = RM1000
举例假设B。
没有own estate，收购成本是RM2000万(50000tons ffb)，milling cost是200万。
cpo output是10000tons (20% OER)
so, COPcpo = RM2200
举例假设C。
种植成本是RM666.67万(50000tons ffb)，没有收购棕果，milling cost是200万。
cpo output是10000tons (20% OER)
so, COPcpo = RM866.67
简而言之，COPcpo只能反映milling activities的盈利状况。
至于转售出去的kernel fruit盈利，是不被允许列入计算的。请参考
我的实例并没有得到任何的肯定，这只是个人看报告解读出来的构想。不可尽信。
【end of edit】
刚整合出来的SIME，接近全国平均数，当属正常。
但是，KLK的COPcpo为什么又这样高呢？
备：是我认为高，这与分析员的预测有差别，何况分析员没有说cost of what。
KLK近来不曾说过他们的COPcpo有多少。
我翻找旧资料，KLK在2004年的cost of ffb和COPcpo分别是RM114和RM746。
看出分别吗？
其实COPcpo只是milling的结果。
如果own mill，没own estate，那么他的2008年COPcpo可能是RM2500-RM3500。因为他们要采购FFB（油棕果），再折扣工厂开销。
其实我们可以说，cost of ffb大家大同小异，COPcpo却大不相同。
KLK的COPcpo较高是有原因的，因为他们的工厂需要购买大量的FFB。以Kekayaan Palm Oil Mill为例，他能应付周围的FFB（不管FFB归谁），同时，工厂的折旧和开销也就水涨船高了。
根据自己的推断(不一定对！)，total cost of cpo是这样的=
total cost of ffb(pro-rata) + purchasing of ffb from small planter + milling cost(include financing cost and depreciation cost)
COPcpo不能用来鉴定一间公司“赚不赚钱”。
【edit】
COPcpo = total cost of cpo / output of cpo in tons
举例假设A。
种植成本是RM600万(45000tons ffb)，收购成本是RM200万(5000tons ffb)，milling cost是200万。
cpo output是10000tons (20% OER)
so, COPcpo = RM1000
举例假设B。
没有own estate，收购成本是RM2000万(50000tons ffb)，milling cost是200万。
cpo output是10000tons (20% OER)
so, COPcpo = RM2200
举例假设C。
种植成本是RM666.67万(50000tons ffb)，没有收购棕果，milling cost是200万。
cpo output是10000tons (20% OER)
so, COPcpo = RM866.67
简而言之，COPcpo只能反映milling activities的盈利状况。
至于转售出去的kernel fruit盈利，是不被允许列入计算的。请参考
我的实例并没有得到任何的肯定，这只是个人看报告解读出来的构想。不可尽信。
【end of edit】
01 December 2008
United call for government help
这“六方会谈”，只是一出谍对谍的戏。
谎言一，六个月不施肥。中国就快撤销肥料出口税了，到时不懂会跌多少。
谎言二，要求国能“烧”棕油。
谎言三，5% blending biodiesel。可能实施，但要等。
如果再往悲观处想，推论是，至少要等大片大片的土地收购，他们才会把CPO价格推高。
Source: The Star, 25 Nov 2008
Planters want scheme to reduce palm oil stocks
BANGI: Six top local plantation companies are seeking the Government’s assistance to work out an incentive programme to enable crude palm oil (CPO) to be used as an energy source in the industrial sector in a bid to reduce palm oil stocks and stabilise prices.
The planters - IOI Corp Bhd, Sime Darby Bhd, Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd (KLK), Boustead Holdings Bhd, Felda Holdings Bhd and United Plantations Bhd - will be working closely with the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB).
They are considering not using fertilisers for the next six months if the current fertiliser price does not fall further. They will also reduce CPO production by 700,000 tonnes by February next year via a replanting exercise covering 200,000ha.
The six companies represent almost 60% of the country’s CPO annual production of about 17.5 million tonnes.
KLK chief executive officer Datuk Seri Lee Oi Hian told a press conference yesterday that the industry players wanted those in the oleochemicals, steel, textile, processing and energy sectors to consider using palm methyl ester as an alternative fuel instead of natural gas and diesel.
MPOB chairman Datuk Sabri Ahmad noted that the board would study the proposal by planters and help them with the submission to the Government.
“Planters want Tenaga Nasional Bhd to help burn CPO as energy. This will not so much be in Peninsular Malaysia but perhaps in Sabah,” he added.
IOI Corp group executive chairman Tan Sri Lee Shin Cheng, meanwhile, reiterated the importance of replanting efforts, expediting the 5% palm methyl ester blend with diesel and refraining from using fertiliser for the next six months.
Felda Holdings group managing director Datuk Mohd Bakke Salleh said the group would be focusing on increasing its CPO exports by penetrating new markets next year.
Taking account of the 15% cut in fertiliser price, Malaysia Estate Owners’ Association president Boon Weng Siew said planters with 30 tonnes of fresh fruit bunches (FFB) per ha per year would have less difficulty in weathering the storm.
This is because the cost of CPO production was estimated at RM1,085 per tonne compared with RM1,264 and RM1,495 in the case of plantations with average yield of 25 tonnes and 20 tonnes of FFB per ha per year respectively.
“Assuming fertiliser price can be reduced by 50%, the CPO production costs of the three classes of plantations can be brought down to a more tenable level of RM840, RM970 and RM1,145 per tonne respectively,” he said.
Sime Darby plantations division managing director Datuk Azhar Abdul Hamid said: “We appreciate the government efforts to push for biodiesel. The 5% blending will be good and the market will react positively.”
He said there should be a balance for palm oil, both in terms of food and fuel usage. “Our priority will be for food,” he added.
Sabri noted that the Government had allocated RM200mil of the total RM500mil in cess for palm oil price stabilisation to support the biodiesel initiative.
On CPO prices, the planters concurred that a fair value should be RM2,000 to RM2,500 per tonne based on the current average cost of production, from about RM1,200 per tonne currently. However, at current CPO price of RM1,500 per tonne, KLK’s Lee said: “Efficient planters are still making profits and not distressed yet.”
谎言一，六个月不施肥。中国就快撤销肥料出口税了，到时不懂会跌多少。
谎言二，要求国能“烧”棕油。
谎言三，5% blending biodiesel。可能实施，但要等。
如果再往悲观处想，推论是，至少要等大片大片的土地收购，他们才会把CPO价格推高。
Source: The Star, 25 Nov 2008
Planters want scheme to reduce palm oil stocks
BANGI: Six top local plantation companies are seeking the Government’s assistance to work out an incentive programme to enable crude palm oil (CPO) to be used as an energy source in the industrial sector in a bid to reduce palm oil stocks and stabilise prices.
The planters - IOI Corp Bhd, Sime Darby Bhd, Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd (KLK), Boustead Holdings Bhd, Felda Holdings Bhd and United Plantations Bhd - will be working closely with the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB).
They are considering not using fertilisers for the next six months if the current fertiliser price does not fall further. They will also reduce CPO production by 700,000 tonnes by February next year via a replanting exercise covering 200,000ha.
The six companies represent almost 60% of the country’s CPO annual production of about 17.5 million tonnes.
KLK chief executive officer Datuk Seri Lee Oi Hian told a press conference yesterday that the industry players wanted those in the oleochemicals, steel, textile, processing and energy sectors to consider using palm methyl ester as an alternative fuel instead of natural gas and diesel.
MPOB chairman Datuk Sabri Ahmad noted that the board would study the proposal by planters and help them with the submission to the Government.
“Planters want Tenaga Nasional Bhd to help burn CPO as energy. This will not so much be in Peninsular Malaysia but perhaps in Sabah,” he added.
IOI Corp group executive chairman Tan Sri Lee Shin Cheng, meanwhile, reiterated the importance of replanting efforts, expediting the 5% palm methyl ester blend with diesel and refraining from using fertiliser for the next six months.
Felda Holdings group managing director Datuk Mohd Bakke Salleh said the group would be focusing on increasing its CPO exports by penetrating new markets next year.
Taking account of the 15% cut in fertiliser price, Malaysia Estate Owners’ Association president Boon Weng Siew said planters with 30 tonnes of fresh fruit bunches (FFB) per ha per year would have less difficulty in weathering the storm.
This is because the cost of CPO production was estimated at RM1,085 per tonne compared with RM1,264 and RM1,495 in the case of plantations with average yield of 25 tonnes and 20 tonnes of FFB per ha per year respectively.
“Assuming fertiliser price can be reduced by 50%, the CPO production costs of the three classes of plantations can be brought down to a more tenable level of RM840, RM970 and RM1,145 per tonne respectively,” he said.
Sime Darby plantations division managing director Datuk Azhar Abdul Hamid said: “We appreciate the government efforts to push for biodiesel. The 5% blending will be good and the market will react positively.”
He said there should be a balance for palm oil, both in terms of food and fuel usage. “Our priority will be for food,” he added.
Sabri noted that the Government had allocated RM200mil of the total RM500mil in cess for palm oil price stabilisation to support the biodiesel initiative.
On CPO prices, the planters concurred that a fair value should be RM2,000 to RM2,500 per tonne based on the current average cost of production, from about RM1,200 per tonne currently. However, at current CPO price of RM1,500 per tonne, KLK’s Lee said: “Efficient planters are still making profits and not distressed yet.”
hsplant figure
production
sales volume and sales price per tons
financial figure('000)
Hsplant上市以来经历了5个quarter，其中两个quarter不是完整3个月。
从上表中可以发现，虽然Hsplant的销售极不稳定，但是不足（deficiency）的地方很快就会被下一季填补。
例如no3的销售因为延迟出货，业绩少得可怜，但是他很快的在下一季填补。
例如no4的receivable突然增加，但此现象在下一季也得到了填补。
至于no5的存货增加原因，尚不明确。
目前有一半的CPO是以RM2000++ 销售的，比较了现在的CPO，可说是暴利。
但是年头的时候，他也是以RM2000++销售。
肯定有人（像我一样）觉得，增持hsplant不如增持hapseng，这是对的。
但如果万一hapseng破产，他会分给你hsplant股票吗？
答案是不会。
所以他们的估价（股价）主要是风险因素，sum-of-the-part倒是其次。
hsplant的风险接近free，所以他应该享有同行业的溢价，他更应该比hapseng贵一个价位。（在风险+金融海啸的环境下）
如果你不在乎风险，那么hapseng比hsplant更值得拥有，这就是对的理论。
或许我们会认为，这种公司太过稳定，股价起伏肯定不会太大。
但是从这次下跌风暴来分析，稳定性和股价起伏是没有连带关系的。
IOI够稳定吗？还不是一样大起大落。
这不是买入建议。
| no. | period | ffb(mt) | cpo(mt) | pk(mt) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2007,07Sep-2007,31oct | 146917.47 | 32006.1 | 7044.63 |
| 2 | 2007,01nov-2008,31jan | 211876.53 | 44112.9 | 9942.37 |
| 3 | 2008,01feb-2008,31mar | 103087 | 21125 | 4945 |
| 4 | 2008,01apr-2008,31jun | 167905 | 35590 | 7829 |
| 5 | 2008,01jul-2008,31sep | 193994 | 41522 | 8999 |
sales volume and sales price per tons
| no. | sales cpo(mt) | sales pk(mt) | cpo price/mt | pk price/mt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30356 | 7086 | 2167 | 1562 |
| 2 | 48423 | 10196 | 2289 | 1739 |
| 3 | 13252 | 4906 | 2431 | 1995 |
| 4 | 40762 | 5857 | 2573 | 1931 |
| 5 | 44365 | 10957 | 2296 | 1581 |
financial figure('000)
| no. | revenue | pre-tax profit | inventory | receivable |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 80900 | 46500 | 24128 | 15076 |
| 2 | 135647 | 73489 | 21331 | 22566 |
| 3 | 45800 | 17649 | 27089 | 13637 |
| 4 | 123433 | 55733 | 22216 | 53780 |
| 5 | 125509 | 62023 | 40697 | 24756 |
Hsplant上市以来经历了5个quarter，其中两个quarter不是完整3个月。
从上表中可以发现，虽然Hsplant的销售极不稳定，但是不足（deficiency）的地方很快就会被下一季填补。
例如no3的销售因为延迟出货，业绩少得可怜，但是他很快的在下一季填补。
例如no4的receivable突然增加，但此现象在下一季也得到了填补。
至于no5的存货增加原因，尚不明确。
目前有一半的CPO是以RM2000++ 销售的，比较了现在的CPO，可说是暴利。
但是年头的时候，他也是以RM2000++销售。
肯定有人（像我一样）觉得，增持hsplant不如增持hapseng，这是对的。
但如果万一hapseng破产，他会分给你hsplant股票吗？
答案是不会。
所以他们的估价（股价）主要是风险因素，sum-of-the-part倒是其次。
hsplant的风险接近free，所以他应该享有同行业的溢价，他更应该比hapseng贵一个价位。（在风险+金融海啸的环境下）
如果你不在乎风险，那么hapseng比hsplant更值得拥有，这就是对的理论。
或许我们会认为，这种公司太过稳定，股价起伏肯定不会太大。
但是从这次下跌风暴来分析，稳定性和股价起伏是没有连带关系的。
IOI够稳定吗？还不是一样大起大落。
这不是买入建议。
30 November 2008
FFB平均售价和CPO平均售价
几天前说的一段话：
从种种推理来看，FFB selling price才是决定planter“赚不赚钱”的指标。
看似很容易理解，其实不然。
如果FFB不假他人之手，只送到同公司的工厂提炼。
这种情况一般上是不会有FFB平均售价的，除非公司照报不误（我相信乱报也不会怎样）。
如果FFB有99%是同公司的工厂提炼的，1%销售给临近的果商。
这种情况一般上FFB平均售价只能代表1%而已。
要根据工厂和种植地的远近，分析FFB和CPO哪个较能反映公司的营销情况，才能真正了解“赚不赚钱”。
如果我们分析的是“上中下”公司，例：TSH，KWANTAS，IOICORP，KLK，KSENG，实际情况又是怎样的？
如果CPO送去同公司的工厂做食用油，那么这些CPO也是不能当作CPO平均售价的。
备：应该不会错。
以KWANTAS的平均售价做例子：
上游 FFB 309
中游 CPO 1737
下游 REFINED PALM OIL 1522
下游 REFINED PALM OLEIN 1864
正常情况下，REFINED PALM OIL是不会便宜过CPO的。
因为KWANTAS平均售价需要遵照之前所说的情况记录，所以，“极少量”的CPO销售造成了一些扭曲。因为KWANTAS的CPO多数是用在同公司的加工产品上，例如：REFINED PALM OIL。
例如当我们说，10%出港，90%进自己厂。
平均售价只能反映10%的出港销售。
从种种推理来看，FFB selling price才是决定planter“赚不赚钱”的指标。
看似很容易理解，其实不然。
如果FFB不假他人之手，只送到同公司的工厂提炼。
这种情况一般上是不会有FFB平均售价的，除非公司照报不误（我相信乱报也不会怎样）。
如果FFB有99%是同公司的工厂提炼的，1%销售给临近的果商。
这种情况一般上FFB平均售价只能代表1%而已。
要根据工厂和种植地的远近，分析FFB和CPO哪个较能反映公司的营销情况，才能真正了解“赚不赚钱”。
如果我们分析的是“上中下”公司，例：TSH，KWANTAS，IOICORP，KLK，KSENG，实际情况又是怎样的？
如果CPO送去同公司的工厂做食用油，那么这些CPO也是不能当作CPO平均售价的。
备：应该不会错。
以KWANTAS的平均售价做例子：
上游 FFB 309
中游 CPO 1737
下游 REFINED PALM OIL 1522
下游 REFINED PALM OLEIN 1864
正常情况下，REFINED PALM OIL是不会便宜过CPO的。
因为KWANTAS平均售价需要遵照之前所说的情况记录，所以，“极少量”的CPO销售造成了一些扭曲。因为KWANTAS的CPO多数是用在同公司的加工产品上，例如：REFINED PALM OIL。
例如当我们说，10%出港，90%进自己厂。
平均售价只能反映10%的出港销售。
29 November 2008
自己计算平均售价
看报告的时候通常会遇到这句很典型的话：
XXX BHD在本季的平均售价是2500，这比同期的MPOB AVERAGE的高了/低了RMXX。
但是如果你把MPOB数据翻过一遍，你也不能得到答案。这是因为他们有自己的计算法则。
MPOB的报价分成两个种类，一个是本地供应价，一个是港口FOB PRICE（美元），这些都是相关人士e-filling上去的，weighted后得出的。
我们可以到MPOB网站，把每个月LOCAL DELIVERY平均价，分别找出。
Jul 3454.50
Aug 2673.50
Sep 2349.50
再找出每个月的消耗量，简化公式是
上月存货 - 本月存货 + production
Jul 2033914 - 1977397 + 1560215 = 1616732
Aug 1977397 - 1848788 + 1600214 = 1728823
Sep 1848788 - 1951417 + 1579442 = 1476813
把以上数据组合，答案是非常接近证券行的计算的，这样以后你就不用找报告了。
三个月平均售价= sum of multiplier /sum of consumption = RM2836
虽然这比OSK的RM2795多出许多，但问题中心是，每间证券行的数据都不一样。
只要自己认为恰当就可以了。
或许太过死计算，在投资领域上变得太过呆板。但写Blog的目的除了是写给自己看，也要写给其他人看，除了“科学”以外，别无他法。如果用词都是“应该”“可能”“大约”，确定性就太薄弱了。
数据是死的，但方法是多变的。如果你想（3454.50+2673.50+2349.50）/ 3 也可以。
XXX BHD在本季的平均售价是2500，这比同期的MPOB AVERAGE的高了/低了RMXX。
但是如果你把MPOB数据翻过一遍，你也不能得到答案。这是因为他们有自己的计算法则。
MPOB的报价分成两个种类，一个是本地供应价，一个是港口FOB PRICE（美元），这些都是相关人士e-filling上去的，weighted后得出的。
我们可以到MPOB网站，把每个月LOCAL DELIVERY平均价，分别找出。
Jul 3454.50
Aug 2673.50
Sep 2349.50
再找出每个月的消耗量，简化公式是
上月存货 - 本月存货 + production
Jul 2033914 - 1977397 + 1560215 = 1616732
Aug 1977397 - 1848788 + 1600214 = 1728823
Sep 1848788 - 1951417 + 1579442 = 1476813
把以上数据组合，答案是非常接近证券行的计算的，这样以后你就不用找报告了。
| PRICE | consumption | multiplier (P x c) |
|---|---|---|
| 3454.50 | 1616732 | 4848632565 |
| 2673.50 | 1728823 | 3924155280 |
| 2349.50 | 1476813 | 3046704727 |
| sum of | 4822368 | 13676781128 |
三个月平均售价= sum of multiplier /sum of consumption = RM2836
虽然这比OSK的RM2795多出许多，但问题中心是，每间证券行的数据都不一样。
只要自己认为恰当就可以了。
或许太过死计算，在投资领域上变得太过呆板。但写Blog的目的除了是写给自己看，也要写给其他人看，除了“科学”以外，别无他法。如果用词都是“应该”“可能”“大约”，确定性就太薄弱了。
数据是死的，但方法是多变的。如果你想（3454.50+2673.50+2349.50）/ 3 也可以。
28 November 2008
第三季度出现非常多的inventory
种植公司一般上会把CPO，FFB，肥料，幼苗，药水归在inventory里。
读了几份报告后发现，有一半的种植公司在第三季向银行借贷囤货。
囤什么货？
其实我一点头绪都没有。
更奇怪的是银行肯借贷给他们。
至于重量级的公司，IOI, KLK, SIME ,则没有囤货动作（同时考虑了房地产存货）。
囤货的几种假设。
1.卖不出
2.钾肥，药水预期上涨
3.幼苗
4.假帐
一个一个结论。
1.不可能，因为营业额和CASH CYCLE（vs receivable)不曾减少。
2.不太可能，因为你不可能几千万几千万这么进货。
3.幼苗不可能花那么大笔钱。
4.不可能集体做假帐。
我比较相信第2假设，这是因为大公司较常lock price（签长约），因而不必囤货。
SO？怎么办？
写信？写了几次，但都被打枪。况且如果我得到答复我也不能发表在这，因为不能具名什么公司和什么人。
读了几份报告后发现，有一半的种植公司在第三季向银行借贷囤货。
囤什么货？
其实我一点头绪都没有。
更奇怪的是银行肯借贷给他们。
至于重量级的公司，IOI, KLK, SIME ,则没有囤货动作（同时考虑了房地产存货）。
囤货的几种假设。
1.卖不出
2.钾肥，药水预期上涨
3.幼苗
4.假帐
一个一个结论。
1.不可能，因为营业额和CASH CYCLE（vs receivable)不曾减少。
2.不太可能，因为你不可能几千万几千万这么进货。
3.幼苗不可能花那么大笔钱。
4.不可能集体做假帐。
我比较相信第2假设，这是因为大公司较常lock price（签长约），因而不必囤货。
SO？怎么办？
写信？写了几次，但都被打枪。况且如果我得到答复我也不能发表在这，因为不能具名什么公司和什么人。
26 November 2008
CAROTEC有很诡异的“引诱派发”动作
为避免误导，我很少预测炒家行为。
但这个CAROTEC和母公司上市到现在以来，题材和业绩（盈利预测）不合，分析报告给予的合理价和股价不合，种种迹象说明了这公司很有欺骗嫌疑。
何先生和大众关系很密切，和散户又有联系（有回Email习惯），也难怪大家对他始终不离不弃。
最近CAROTEC和名牌大厂签订和一份BIOFUEL的合同，股价在20分-30分波动，事后看来是“引诱派发”动作（也是一贯动作）。
我们必须回想当初分析员定价RM1多合理价时候的那副嘴脸，来警惕这次的事情。
有点事后泼冷水。
如果油价在一百美元以上，Direct blending 和 methyl ester价格看不到什么差别。如果是现在，在本地实施Direct blending肯定会比外国规格（methyl ester）来的划算。可以说，马印两地的Direct blending才是救命符。
note
本地的生物柴油不是methyl ester，而是直接掺棕油的，成本较低，但不被车厂担保。
官车的天价维修费用，不知会不会令生物柴油形象扣分呢？
但这个CAROTEC和母公司上市到现在以来，题材和业绩（盈利预测）不合，分析报告给予的合理价和股价不合，种种迹象说明了这公司很有欺骗嫌疑。
何先生和大众关系很密切，和散户又有联系（有回Email习惯），也难怪大家对他始终不离不弃。
最近CAROTEC和名牌大厂签订和一份BIOFUEL的合同，股价在20分-30分波动，事后看来是“引诱派发”动作（也是一贯动作）。
我们必须回想当初分析员定价RM1多合理价时候的那副嘴脸，来警惕这次的事情。
有点事后泼冷水。
如果油价在一百美元以上，Direct blending 和 methyl ester价格看不到什么差别。如果是现在，在本地实施Direct blending肯定会比外国规格（methyl ester）来的划算。可以说，马印两地的Direct blending才是救命符。
note
本地的生物柴油不是methyl ester，而是直接掺棕油的，成本较低，但不被车厂担保。
官车的天价维修费用，不知会不会令生物柴油形象扣分呢？
理解CPO平均售价，和最容易疏忽的事项
报告注明CPO平均售价时，最容易混淆的是“期限”(period)
多数报告的CPO售价，是以“cumulative”记录的，但很多时候被人误当成了“一季”。
也有公司只报告一季资料，却不报告cumulative。
同时报告两份的公司有ijmplnt.
ijmplnt financial ended 31/03/2008, 4 quarter cpo sales price
只记cumulative，但不记录single quarter的有ioicorp
ioicorp financial ended 30/06/2008, 4 quarter cpo sales price
【re-edit on 2008-nov-28】
上表例子告诉我们，如果要拿2/3/4季个别平均售价只能靠简单的推理了。
其中一个容易疏忽的地方，就在这里。
利用简单的Excel RAW INPUT和平均数运用，可以找到个别季度的平均售价。
但是，更实践的计算没这么简单。
其中一个原因是，CPO price是根据出厂价定制的。
有的公司规模以milling为主，plantation为副，CPO selling price高或低对他们没有太大影响。
有的plantation公司没有Mill，但是他们和Miller有协议，代工取油，这些公司也有自己的CPO制定价和榨取率。
如果CPO存货没售出，也不能当作平均售价。（虽然是句废话，但如果没有实践在存货分析，他就不是废话了。）
从种种推理来看，FFB selling price才是决定planter“赚不赚钱”的指标。
总结一句，只有模糊两个字，其实自己也搞不清楚。
多数报告的CPO售价，是以“cumulative”记录的，但很多时候被人误当成了“一季”。
也有公司只报告一季资料，却不报告cumulative。
同时报告两份的公司有ijmplnt.
ijmplnt financial ended 31/03/2008, 4 quarter cpo sales price
| single quarter | cumulative | |
|---|---|---|
| 2007-jun | 2046 | 2046 |
| 2007-sep | 2440 | 2256 |
| 2007-dec | 2672 | 2410 |
| 2008-mar | 3126 | 2544 |
只记cumulative，但不记录single quarter的有ioicorp
ioicorp financial ended 30/06/2008, 4 quarter cpo sales price
【re-edit on 2008-nov-28】
| single quarter | cumulative | |
|---|---|---|
| 2007-sep | 2473 | 2473 |
| 2007-dec | ? | 2572 |
| 2008-mar | ? | 2705 |
| 2008-jun | ? | 2865 |
上表例子告诉我们，如果要拿2/3/4季个别平均售价只能靠简单的推理了。
其中一个容易疏忽的地方，就在这里。
利用简单的Excel RAW INPUT和平均数运用，可以找到个别季度的平均售价。
| single | cumulative | formula | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2007-sep | 2473 | 2473 | |
| 2007-dec | 2671 | 2572 | 2572x2 -2473 |
| 2008-mar | 2971 | 2705 | 2705x3 -2473-2671 |
| 2008-jun | 3345 | 2865 | 2865x4 -2473-2671-2971 |
但是，更实践的计算没这么简单。
其中一个原因是，CPO price是根据出厂价定制的。
有的公司规模以milling为主，plantation为副，CPO selling price高或低对他们没有太大影响。
有的plantation公司没有Mill，但是他们和Miller有协议，代工取油，这些公司也有自己的CPO制定价和榨取率。
如果CPO存货没售出，也不能当作平均售价。（虽然是句废话，但如果没有实践在存货分析，他就不是废话了。）
从种种推理来看，FFB selling price才是决定planter“赚不赚钱”的指标。
总结一句，只有模糊两个字，其实自己也搞不清楚。
资料贫乏到根本不能看
下载报告来看是应该的态度，但有些公司提供的资料贫乏到根本不能看，身为投资者如果认为自己不能挑战这些资料，就不应该持有这种股票。有人认为投资种植公司是安全的，因为每个月公司都会报告产量，只要产量增加那么季报就不会太难看，严格来说这是非常大胆，但又不失为预测业绩的“捷径”。
品种多了，会计期限的变动调整机会更大了，早熟的机会很大。
董事也有折旧率决定权。
*1随着森林土地越来越少开发了，过去的开发趋势已经演变成翻种趋势。
开发和翻种是非常相像的，但很难想像一样的东西会计制度是完全相反的，据说税制也不同。
成熟前的收割收益，能“偷偷”用来抵消翻种和培育成本。这是谁设计的会计？
重估的标准是什么？随着新制度的替代，mark to market已取代mark to cost，连biological asset valuation都被要求mark to market。
但我们如何知道20年内biological asset会有什么价值变化?
Agri-accounting 已经越来越复杂了。但他们依旧不停修改以致越改越乱，越改越没有透明度。可怜的只是读年报的人。
note*1
开发是investing activities，翻种是operating cost。
品种多了，会计期限的变动调整机会更大了，早熟的机会很大。
董事也有折旧率决定权。
*1随着森林土地越来越少开发了，过去的开发趋势已经演变成翻种趋势。
开发和翻种是非常相像的，但很难想像一样的东西会计制度是完全相反的，据说税制也不同。
成熟前的收割收益，能“偷偷”用来抵消翻种和培育成本。这是谁设计的会计？
重估的标准是什么？随着新制度的替代，mark to market已取代mark to cost，连biological asset valuation都被要求mark to market。
但我们如何知道20年内biological asset会有什么价值变化?
Agri-accounting 已经越来越复杂了。但他们依旧不停修改以致越改越乱，越改越没有透明度。可怜的只是读年报的人。
note*1
开发是investing activities，翻种是operating cost。
25 November 2008
24-11-2008: TSH to continue 20%-30% dividend policy
by Racheal Lee Mei Nyee
KUALA LUMPUR: TSH Resources Bhd will continue to pay out the minimum of between 20% and 30% of net profits despite the global financial turmoil and lower crude palm oil (CPO) prices, its managing director Datuk Dr Kelvin Tan said.
He said the company’s profit had been less affected compared to other planters by the fall in CPO prices, as its business in palm oil downstream refining and milling raked in stable margins.
“These businesses, together with our palm bio-integration and cocoa businesses, are major sources of our profits, and they are unaffected by the fall in palm oil prices. Thus, the sharp fall in CPO prices will have much less impact on our profitability as compared to other oil palm plantation companies,” Tan said in an email reply to The Edge Financial Daily.
TSH Resources is involved in palm and bio-integration business, wood products business as well as cocoa and vegetable fat. It has eight pieces of leasehold land in Sabah, measuring 11,835.63 acres (4,789.71 hectares) in total, for oil palm plantation.
It has another four parcels of plantation land of 104,234.05 acres in Kalimantan and Sumatra of Indonesia, through its 90%-owned Indonesian subsidiary PT Sarana Prima Multi Niaga, 70%-owned subsidiary PT Teguh Swakarsa Sejahtera and PT Laras Internusa.
Tan said the abolition of the 5% import duty on seven types of fertilisers, announced earlier this month to reduce cost of agriculture inputs, helped to reduce its production cost. The government has subsequently removed import duty on all imported mineral fertilisers.
“Our main focus for the foreseeable future is to expand the oil palm plantation development in Indonesia as we are convinced that the inherent quality and competitiveness of palm oil will assure its long-term profitability and sustainability.”
He added that the company’s oil palm tissue culture laboratory had commenced operations, whereby it would supply high quality planting materials for the group as well as generate additional revenue from outside sales of the demand for tissue cultured ramets (members of a clone).
“Oil palm ramets can potentially increase oil yield per hectare by 50%. We will also continue to roll out its palm bio-integration projects, which utilise palm oil wastes to generate and diversify our income base,” he added.
TSH posted a 3.9% drop in net profit to RM24.6 million In its third quarter ended Sept 30, 2008 (3Q08) from RM25.6 million a year earlier, despite a 35.08% increase in revenue to RM322 million from RM238.4 million.
In its latest research note, Asia Analytica expects TSH to do well in 2008 despite weaker earnings expected in the fourth quarter. With the nine-month net profit of RM84.9 million, the research house said TSH’s net profit was estimated at RM96.7 million in 2008 - slightly up from RM93 million in 2007.
Nevertheless, it said TSH’s earnings would fall sharply next year to about RM47.7 million as CPO prices were expected to remain low for some time and the global credit crisis had severely crimped consumer spending on timber and wood products.
“Dividends too are expected to fall in line with the company’s earnings. Assuming a steady 30% payout, dividends are estimated at seven sen and 3.5 sen per share in 2008 and 2009, respectively. That translates into yields of 4.9% and 2.4% respectively for the two years,” the research house added.
KUALA LUMPUR: TSH Resources Bhd will continue to pay out the minimum of between 20% and 30% of net profits despite the global financial turmoil and lower crude palm oil (CPO) prices, its managing director Datuk Dr Kelvin Tan said.
He said the company’s profit had been less affected compared to other planters by the fall in CPO prices, as its business in palm oil downstream refining and milling raked in stable margins.
“These businesses, together with our palm bio-integration and cocoa businesses, are major sources of our profits, and they are unaffected by the fall in palm oil prices. Thus, the sharp fall in CPO prices will have much less impact on our profitability as compared to other oil palm plantation companies,” Tan said in an email reply to The Edge Financial Daily.
TSH Resources is involved in palm and bio-integration business, wood products business as well as cocoa and vegetable fat. It has eight pieces of leasehold land in Sabah, measuring 11,835.63 acres (4,789.71 hectares) in total, for oil palm plantation.
It has another four parcels of plantation land of 104,234.05 acres in Kalimantan and Sumatra of Indonesia, through its 90%-owned Indonesian subsidiary PT Sarana Prima Multi Niaga, 70%-owned subsidiary PT Teguh Swakarsa Sejahtera and PT Laras Internusa.
Tan said the abolition of the 5% import duty on seven types of fertilisers, announced earlier this month to reduce cost of agriculture inputs, helped to reduce its production cost. The government has subsequently removed import duty on all imported mineral fertilisers.
“Our main focus for the foreseeable future is to expand the oil palm plantation development in Indonesia as we are convinced that the inherent quality and competitiveness of palm oil will assure its long-term profitability and sustainability.”
He added that the company’s oil palm tissue culture laboratory had commenced operations, whereby it would supply high quality planting materials for the group as well as generate additional revenue from outside sales of the demand for tissue cultured ramets (members of a clone).
“Oil palm ramets can potentially increase oil yield per hectare by 50%. We will also continue to roll out its palm bio-integration projects, which utilise palm oil wastes to generate and diversify our income base,” he added.
TSH posted a 3.9% drop in net profit to RM24.6 million In its third quarter ended Sept 30, 2008 (3Q08) from RM25.6 million a year earlier, despite a 35.08% increase in revenue to RM322 million from RM238.4 million.
In its latest research note, Asia Analytica expects TSH to do well in 2008 despite weaker earnings expected in the fourth quarter. With the nine-month net profit of RM84.9 million, the research house said TSH’s net profit was estimated at RM96.7 million in 2008 - slightly up from RM93 million in 2007.
Nevertheless, it said TSH’s earnings would fall sharply next year to about RM47.7 million as CPO prices were expected to remain low for some time and the global credit crisis had severely crimped consumer spending on timber and wood products.
“Dividends too are expected to fall in line with the company’s earnings. Assuming a steady 30% payout, dividends are estimated at seven sen and 3.5 sen per share in 2008 and 2009, respectively. That translates into yields of 4.9% and 2.4% respectively for the two years,” the research house added.
22 November 2008
印度违约印尼，印尼公司违约马来西亚Boustead（已解决））
【edit on 26-dec-2008】
7百万美元欠款，已有替代方案，买卖合约不变。
【end of edit】
较早，印尼把20家印度公司列入黑名单。
昨天（21/11/2008），印尼买方违约了与Boustead公司，于26/02/2008定下的买卖合约：
NOTICE OF DEFAULT IN RESPECT OF THE PROPOSED DISPOSAL BY BOUNTY CROP SDN BHD (“BOUNTY CROP”), A WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARY OF BHB, OF ITS ENTIRE 90% EQUITY INTEREST IN PT DENDYMARKER INDAHLESTARI (“DENDYMARKER”) (“PROPOSED DENDYMARKER DISPOSAL”)
买方
PT Inti Plantation and Bapak Wijaya Mulia ("Buyers") ,or
PT Multi Energi Persada (“MEP”) and Mr Wijaya Mulia (“Wijaya”)
卖方
10% smallholder of subject matter
90% holder of subject matter is Boustead holding （BH） -> Boustead Plantations -> Bounty Crop and Minat Warisan.
标的物（subject matter）
PT DENDYMARKER INDAHLESTARI
简单的说，就是boustead holding卖DENDYMARKER给Buyers . 但不能说的这么随便。
DENDYMARKER的售价是3.5millions US Dollars, 完成交易(closing date)同时，Buyers还需解决DENDYMARKER拖欠BH的58.5 million US Dollars债务，也就是说，如果买方想得到DENDYMARKER公司，就必须掏出61.5 million US Dollars的现金。 （当时汇率是RM3.22 for USD1.00 ，现在汇率是RM3.623 for USD1.00 ，难怪要违约了。）
DENDYMARKER的
土地开发权是40000公顷，
土地拥有权是14,856.5公顷，其中4,928是油棕栽种地，
另拥有一座20mt/hour mill.
31 December 2006，DENDYMARKER年亏损是Rp34.05 billion（-RM9.79million）。
negative net assets Rp87.67 billion （-RM25.21million）。
这相等于，
土地和提炼厂的估价是RM36,500,000，如果以1美元兑3.22马币汇率。
土地和提炼厂的估价是RM37,900,000，如果以1美元兑3.623马币汇率。
可以推算，14,856.5公顷的土地，每公顷才卖RM1780-RM1880而已，以今年二月的行情，这个价格是相当贱价的。
如果我们考虑boustead的质量，这笔交易还是越快卖出越好，这是因为他们都不是做生意的料，早早拿到钱，可以派股息。
但如果这交易换成是其他公司，卖出就很可惜了。
BH的投入成本是RM73.0 million（90%计），很明显是回不了本的。 这尚不包括可能收不回的borrowing。
Original Cost of Investment
Bounty Crop’s initial investment in Dendymarker was approved by the Minister of Justice, Indonesia on 27 February 1996. The total cost of investment by Bounty Crop in Dendymarker is RM73.0 million.
由于交易价只有3.5M美元，分析员肯定会大事化小，小事化无的。
卖不出的代价是什么？
代价就是BH拿不到61.5 million US Dollars的现金，这笔钱在这个时候不知有多好用。
对股东来说绝对是大事。
这交易的付款方式是：
定金 USD390,500
第一次付款 USD1,420,000
第二次付款 USD1,689,500 ， 以及解决58.5 million US Dollars债务。
如果不能complete，相信只有没收定金了。
奇怪的是，买方只拖欠了7百万美元，而不是5千万美元。
3. Under Article 2.2 (c) IV of Supplemental Agreement and Article 2.3 of Supplement Escrow Agreement dated 28 July 2008, as a consequence of the Buyers' default all of the Payment in the Escrow Account of USD7,500,000 (seven million five hundred thousand United States Dollar), plus the accrued interest, is to be collected by Bounty Crop and kept by Bounty Crop absolutely.
要不要让步7百万美元呢？
备：由于不知道DENDYMARKER leverage有多少，计算是相当初步的。资料尚不明朗，唯有等待。
filed ： sales and purchase valuation.xls
7百万美元欠款，已有替代方案，买卖合约不变。
【end of edit】
较早，印尼把20家印度公司列入黑名单。
昨天（21/11/2008），印尼买方违约了与Boustead公司，于26/02/2008定下的买卖合约：
NOTICE OF DEFAULT IN RESPECT OF THE PROPOSED DISPOSAL BY BOUNTY CROP SDN BHD (“BOUNTY CROP”), A WHOLLY OWNED SUBSIDIARY OF BHB, OF ITS ENTIRE 90% EQUITY INTEREST IN PT DENDYMARKER INDAHLESTARI (“DENDYMARKER”) (“PROPOSED DENDYMARKER DISPOSAL”)
买方
PT Inti Plantation and Bapak Wijaya Mulia ("Buyers") ,or
PT Multi Energi Persada (“MEP”) and Mr Wijaya Mulia (“Wijaya”)
卖方
10% smallholder of subject matter
90% holder of subject matter is Boustead holding （BH） -> Boustead Plantations -> Bounty Crop and Minat Warisan.
标的物（subject matter）
PT DENDYMARKER INDAHLESTARI
简单的说，就是boustead holding卖DENDYMARKER给Buyers . 但不能说的这么随便。
DENDYMARKER的售价是3.5millions US Dollars, 完成交易(closing date)同时，Buyers还需解决DENDYMARKER拖欠BH的58.5 million US Dollars债务，也就是说，如果买方想得到DENDYMARKER公司，就必须掏出61.5 million US Dollars的现金。 （当时汇率是RM3.22 for USD1.00 ，现在汇率是RM3.623 for USD1.00 ，难怪要违约了。）
DENDYMARKER的
土地开发权是40000公顷，
土地拥有权是14,856.5公顷，其中4,928是油棕栽种地，
另拥有一座20mt/hour mill.
31 December 2006，DENDYMARKER年亏损是Rp34.05 billion（-RM9.79million）。
negative net assets Rp87.67 billion （-RM25.21million）。
这相等于，
土地和提炼厂的估价是RM36,500,000，如果以1美元兑3.22马币汇率。
土地和提炼厂的估价是RM37,900,000，如果以1美元兑3.623马币汇率。
可以推算，14,856.5公顷的土地，每公顷才卖RM1780-RM1880而已，以今年二月的行情，这个价格是相当贱价的。
如果我们考虑boustead的质量，这笔交易还是越快卖出越好，这是因为他们都不是做生意的料，早早拿到钱，可以派股息。
但如果这交易换成是其他公司，卖出就很可惜了。
BH的投入成本是RM73.0 million（90%计），很明显是回不了本的。 这尚不包括可能收不回的borrowing。
Original Cost of Investment
Bounty Crop’s initial investment in Dendymarker was approved by the Minister of Justice, Indonesia on 27 February 1996. The total cost of investment by Bounty Crop in Dendymarker is RM73.0 million.
由于交易价只有3.5M美元，分析员肯定会大事化小，小事化无的。
卖不出的代价是什么？
代价就是BH拿不到61.5 million US Dollars的现金，这笔钱在这个时候不知有多好用。
对股东来说绝对是大事。
这交易的付款方式是：
定金 USD390,500
第一次付款 USD1,420,000
第二次付款 USD1,689,500 ， 以及解决58.5 million US Dollars债务。
如果不能complete，相信只有没收定金了。
奇怪的是，买方只拖欠了7百万美元，而不是5千万美元。
3. Under Article 2.2 (c) IV of Supplemental Agreement and Article 2.3 of Supplement Escrow Agreement dated 28 July 2008, as a consequence of the Buyers' default all of the Payment in the Escrow Account of USD7,500,000 (seven million five hundred thousand United States Dollar), plus the accrued interest, is to be collected by Bounty Crop and kept by Bounty Crop absolutely.
要不要让步7百万美元呢？
备：由于不知道DENDYMARKER leverage有多少，计算是相当初步的。资料尚不明朗，唯有等待。
filed ： sales and purchase valuation.xls
19 November 2008
Malaysian Millers Must Buy Palm Oil Fruit From Planters
miller因为CPO大跌而拒收油棕果，只是其中一个原因。我们想法只对一部分。
另一个原因是，马来西亚的palm oil millers数量没有增加，由于年尾palm oil millers的capacity已经超过了100%了，存货太多，因此他们拒收。
情况应该是这样。
根据自己的了解。
over capacity的意思是出现additional cost的增产。
以现在奇货可居的情况，花3千万开一间工厂，比你花3千万买地种油棕更划算。（有没有钱和技术另当别论）
3千万投入种植，你只能在1400公顷的土地看运气，能不能赚钱还是未知数。（买地+种油棕，双费用）
相信开工厂比开油站还难100倍。
November 10, 2008 10:00 GMT+8
All 403 palm oil millers throughout the country have been reminded that they must receive and buy palm fruits from planters, despite the current economics of low profits.
Mills operating at full capacity with no more storage space, however, are excused.
“All palm oil millers are mandated by law to take in the fruits from oil palm planters. Low profit margin is no excuse to reject planters’ produce,” Plantation Industries and Commodities Deputy Minister Senator Kohilan Pillay said.
He said the government is stepping up efforts to support palm oil prices by subsidising planters to chop down more old trees and replant with higher yielding clones.
This is aimed at lowering palm oil output in the immediate term while ensuring higher yield in four or five years’ time.
The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) enforcement team is closely monitoring operations at all the mills, Kohilan added.
“Millers who are not operating at full capacity, and yet reject fresh fruit bunches brought in by planters, will have their milling licences revoked by MPOB,” the deputy minister told reporters after officiating at the Palm Oil Refiners Association of Malaysia (Poram) forum in Petaling Jaya over the weekend.
Kohilan was responding to reported complaints from some smallholders in Johor that suffered losses when millers rejected their fresh fruit bunches on excuse of low palm oil prices and thereby unprofitable to process.
This year, MPOB data shows that mills in Johor are running at 92 per cent capacity on average, a lot busier than last year’s 81 per cent.
Asked why three months is needed to implement B5 mandate (five per cent palm biodiesel and 95 per cent regular diesel), Kohilan said an adequate timeframe is needed for diesel-powered vehicle manufacturers to extend warranty to biodiesel usage.
Oil companies too, need time to work out apportionment of costs with biodiesel producers.
From now until Febuary 2009, the government will engage with logistic companies, taxis and bus companies, on possible pricing mechanisms of biodiesel and whether fleet card subsidy is included.
Dialogues with consumer groups will also be conducted. Currently a litre of palm biodiesel is cheaper than regular diesel.
Should it become more expensive, Kohilan assured the public will not be burdened because biodiesel laws passed by Parliament in 2006 provide for mandates to be lowered in such instances.
“The MPOB has collected price stabilisation cess of some RM200 million from oil palm planters.
“This will go to subsidising biodiesel usage, if needed,” the deputy minister said.
另一个原因是，马来西亚的palm oil millers数量没有增加，由于年尾palm oil millers的capacity已经超过了100%了，存货太多，因此他们拒收。
情况应该是这样。
根据自己的了解。
over capacity的意思是出现additional cost的增产。
以现在奇货可居的情况，花3千万开一间工厂，比你花3千万买地种油棕更划算。（有没有钱和技术另当别论）
3千万投入种植，你只能在1400公顷的土地看运气，能不能赚钱还是未知数。（买地+种油棕，双费用）
相信开工厂比开油站还难100倍。
November 10, 2008 10:00 GMT+8
All 403 palm oil millers throughout the country have been reminded that they must receive and buy palm fruits from planters, despite the current economics of low profits.
Mills operating at full capacity with no more storage space, however, are excused.
“All palm oil millers are mandated by law to take in the fruits from oil palm planters. Low profit margin is no excuse to reject planters’ produce,” Plantation Industries and Commodities Deputy Minister Senator Kohilan Pillay said.
He said the government is stepping up efforts to support palm oil prices by subsidising planters to chop down more old trees and replant with higher yielding clones.
This is aimed at lowering palm oil output in the immediate term while ensuring higher yield in four or five years’ time.
The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) enforcement team is closely monitoring operations at all the mills, Kohilan added.
“Millers who are not operating at full capacity, and yet reject fresh fruit bunches brought in by planters, will have their milling licences revoked by MPOB,” the deputy minister told reporters after officiating at the Palm Oil Refiners Association of Malaysia (Poram) forum in Petaling Jaya over the weekend.
Kohilan was responding to reported complaints from some smallholders in Johor that suffered losses when millers rejected their fresh fruit bunches on excuse of low palm oil prices and thereby unprofitable to process.
This year, MPOB data shows that mills in Johor are running at 92 per cent capacity on average, a lot busier than last year’s 81 per cent.
Asked why three months is needed to implement B5 mandate (five per cent palm biodiesel and 95 per cent regular diesel), Kohilan said an adequate timeframe is needed for diesel-powered vehicle manufacturers to extend warranty to biodiesel usage.
Oil companies too, need time to work out apportionment of costs with biodiesel producers.
From now until Febuary 2009, the government will engage with logistic companies, taxis and bus companies, on possible pricing mechanisms of biodiesel and whether fleet card subsidy is included.
Dialogues with consumer groups will also be conducted. Currently a litre of palm biodiesel is cheaper than regular diesel.
Should it become more expensive, Kohilan assured the public will not be burdened because biodiesel laws passed by Parliament in 2006 provide for mandates to be lowered in such instances.
“The MPOB has collected price stabilisation cess of some RM200 million from oil palm planters.
“This will go to subsidising biodiesel usage, if needed,” the deputy minister said.
18 November 2008
报纸的质量, 真误导
我对分析员的分析是深具信心的，但对于报纸的质量感到惋惜，你们真会误导。
IOICORP的外汇亏损是很普通的亏损。
但在众说纷纭，以讹传讹的情形下，什么版本都有。
掉期亏损，期货亏损，对冲亏损，远期合约亏损等等，都不对。
IOI本季（1Q09）的成绩是不错的，因为他的对冲修补了外汇亏损，就这么简单。
不只不错，还很惊叹。因为平均售价很高，“拖后效应”非常显著。
虽然这季对他评价不错，但总体评价不变。
IOICORP的外汇亏损是很普通的亏损。
但在众说纷纭，以讹传讹的情形下，什么版本都有。
掉期亏损，期货亏损，对冲亏损，远期合约亏损等等，都不对。
IOI本季（1Q09）的成绩是不错的，因为他的对冲修补了外汇亏损，就这么简单。
不只不错，还很惊叹。因为平均售价很高，“拖后效应”非常显著。
虽然这季对他评价不错，但总体评价不变。
spillover and decouple，无力。
常听人家说过这两个现象，听是常听，但如果可以具体说出他们的内容就很难了。
decouple是脱钩，spillover是溢出，看似相反，却又不全是。
美国牵一发，国外动全身，spillover效应出现了。
美国出口增长，是国外需求提高的最好证明，这一现象证明了美国要靠世界，不是世界靠美国。
到底是谁和谁挂钩了？
这两个理论也能构想在行业间关系上，也能构想在原产品和替代品关系上。
人们都在联想什么才是可以保值的，第一时间想到的是黄金，但美元在上涨，石油在下跌，消费在减少，黄金也不能幸免。
人们又想到，灾难来临，与其抱着黄金等死，不如买吃喝需求品，这样更能保值。
看来也错。
黄豆油和棕油在印度还没有实施进口税以前，溢价是9美元，现在是？
以后呢？
我看贵100%都可能，因为这是多变的世界。
人们又想到，人口膨胀，粮食总要涨的。
又错。
基因改造和农业技术提升，以20年长线来看，粮食价格是下跌的。
人们认为美元越印越多，必将贬值。
也不对。
因为银行不积极放贷，货币不流通，美元反而是上涨了。
会维持多久呢？
人们相信石油越挖越少，总会有耗竭的一天。
可能。但。。。。。
spillover效应越泛滥，在专研单一项目时，失效性就会越大。这也造成基本派的影响变得式微，技术和投机也会变得越重要。
在国内国外，大板小板的股市和指数中，也会出现同步效应。
基本上和种植相关的股都跌60%，非种植股都跌47%。
比较特殊的情况是，不应该是种植股的跌了70%(TSH)，应该是种植股的只跌了43-50%(KRETAM)，又怎么解释？
我的推理是，TSH不该给EKOWOOD上市（怀疑EKOWOOD，或有假帐特性），KRETAM是凭单效应。
若有机会，或拆解拆解。
或是个人狭隘想法，或是胡思乱想。
不认同也不要紧，重要的是，看过博文以后，想想能从这两个理论中悟出自己的道理。
decouple是脱钩，spillover是溢出，看似相反，却又不全是。
美国牵一发，国外动全身，spillover效应出现了。
美国出口增长，是国外需求提高的最好证明，这一现象证明了美国要靠世界，不是世界靠美国。
到底是谁和谁挂钩了？
这两个理论也能构想在行业间关系上，也能构想在原产品和替代品关系上。
人们都在联想什么才是可以保值的，第一时间想到的是黄金，但美元在上涨，石油在下跌，消费在减少，黄金也不能幸免。
人们又想到，灾难来临，与其抱着黄金等死，不如买吃喝需求品，这样更能保值。
看来也错。
黄豆油和棕油在印度还没有实施进口税以前，溢价是9美元，现在是？
以后呢？
我看贵100%都可能，因为这是多变的世界。
人们又想到，人口膨胀，粮食总要涨的。
又错。
基因改造和农业技术提升，以20年长线来看，粮食价格是下跌的。
人们认为美元越印越多，必将贬值。
也不对。
因为银行不积极放贷，货币不流通，美元反而是上涨了。
会维持多久呢？
人们相信石油越挖越少，总会有耗竭的一天。
可能。但。。。。。
spillover效应越泛滥，在专研单一项目时，失效性就会越大。这也造成基本派的影响变得式微，技术和投机也会变得越重要。
在国内国外，大板小板的股市和指数中，也会出现同步效应。
基本上和种植相关的股都跌60%，非种植股都跌47%。
比较特殊的情况是，不应该是种植股的跌了70%(TSH)，应该是种植股的只跌了43-50%(KRETAM)，又怎么解释？
我的推理是，TSH不该给EKOWOOD上市（怀疑EKOWOOD，或有假帐特性），KRETAM是凭单效应。
若有机会，或拆解拆解。
或是个人狭隘想法，或是胡思乱想。
不认同也不要紧，重要的是，看过博文以后，想想能从这两个理论中悟出自己的道理。
15 November 2008
9月份的产量下跌不是自然因素
既不是自然因素，就是人为因素了。
相信这是场外买家观望等待看跌行情所致，厂家也可以趁机拖延以等待更便宜价格购入棕果。
最吃亏的还是小园主，被吃秤头，还要受大户的气。
棕油局每天公布的公定参考价也是摆美的。
不鼓励小园主买太好的品种（但也不要太差）。
但最好是寻求相关机构的咨询，我们的意见还是别听。
品种是随着气候/阳光/雨量不同而调试的，比如我们品种和非洲的就不一样了。
不鼓励小园主买太好的品种（但也不要太差），原因是小园主是按照FFB重量收钱的。很遗憾的，目前还找不到高FFB低oil content太过差异的品种（往往是正常比例），也很难用肥料技术突破，用错就太危险了。
如果有这种品种，那小园主才有谈判的优势。
CPO production在东西马出现的差异。
还有一个课题，虽然东马的FFB oil content较高，但FFB seller需要承担一笔州务税收，因此他们卖不出好价钱。
相信这是场外买家观望等待看跌行情所致，厂家也可以趁机拖延以等待更便宜价格购入棕果。
最吃亏的还是小园主，被吃秤头，还要受大户的气。
棕油局每天公布的公定参考价也是摆美的。
不鼓励小园主买太好的品种（但也不要太差）。
但最好是寻求相关机构的咨询，我们的意见还是别听。
品种是随着气候/阳光/雨量不同而调试的，比如我们品种和非洲的就不一样了。
不鼓励小园主买太好的品种（但也不要太差），原因是小园主是按照FFB重量收钱的。很遗憾的，目前还找不到高FFB低oil content太过差异的品种（往往是正常比例），也很难用肥料技术突破，用错就太危险了。
如果有这种品种，那小园主才有谈判的优势。
CPO production在东西马出现的差异。
| Aug 2008 | Sept 2008 | |
|---|---|---|
| P. Malaysia | 927078 | 876553 |
| Sabah | 495537 | 516808 |
| Sarawak | 177599 | 186081 |
还有一个课题，虽然东马的FFB oil content较高，但FFB seller需要承担一笔州务税收，因此他们卖不出好价钱。
13 November 2008
difference between Malaysia and Indonesia cpo export duty
根据分析员和报导叙述，马来西亚的cpo的出口税是30%，比印尼还不利，这是错误解释。
原因有2。
1.马来西亚只向cpo征收出口税，但不对其他process or semi-process palm oil征收。这是为了鼓励本地的中游工业。
因此，more than 80%的棕油是不必征出口税的。
2.印尼对所有cpo和ppo抽出口税。
马来西亚的cpo，多数是出口到欧洲的。相信这是因为他们的入口税架构的关系，但我不肯定，如果你想追问到底，可查看。
uk tariff
欧洲国家对食油要求也较高，因此他们也愿意承担费用。
【2008 NOV 19 ADD， 马来西亚有每年个月 3M MT CPO的免出口税配额， 之前是2M MT】
cpo出口税计算方式。
eg: base price RM1433 , export tax = RM209.9
原因有2。
1.马来西亚只向cpo征收出口税，但不对其他process or semi-process palm oil征收。这是为了鼓励本地的中游工业。
因此，more than 80%的棕油是不必征出口税的。
2.印尼对所有cpo和ppo抽出口税。
马来西亚的cpo，多数是出口到欧洲的。相信这是因为他们的入口税架构的关系，但我不肯定，如果你想追问到底，可查看。
uk tariff
欧洲国家对食油要求也较高，因此他们也愿意承担费用。
【2008 NOV 19 ADD， 马来西亚有每年
cpo出口税计算方式。
eg: base price RM1433 , export tax = RM209.9
| first | 650 | 0% | 0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| next | 50 | 10% | 5 |
| next | 50 | 15% | 7.5 |
| next | 50 | 20% | 10 |
| next | 50 | 25% | 12.5 |
| remaining | 583 | 30% | 174.9 |
| total | 1433 | 209.9 |
nipah palm for ethanol
nipah palm是一种棕榈科，属红树林生态系统的一种群聚植物，喜欢在河口偏咸的地方生长，如果水质转淡，那么他就会被其他的红树林种类植物淘汰。
这植物也是本地甜点ais kacang的食材，俗称亚答子，经这么一说应该不陌生了。
在中国称水椰。
他可拿来制作酒精饮料和糖浆。
详细资料不赘述，可查看 source
去年perak government-based company（Pioneer Bio Industries Corp Sdn Bhd），声称已经掌握了世界首个nipah palm for ethanol的技术专利权，决定耗资RM1.4billion，在全国各地投产ethanol。
以15个科学家为首的负责人Md Badrul Shah Mohd Noor声称，野生的nipah palm在产量和种植成本都比甘蔗和玉米ethanol强上数倍，加上他有50年的寿命，只要有10万公顷就可以应付全世界的ethanol需求了。
这个人说他们已经接受了外国订单，但他拒绝透露名字。
Pioneer Bio"戏称"nipah palm是解救温室气体排放的救星。(Malaysian Company Says Bio Fuel from Nipah Can Help Halt Global Warming)
结果这个惊人发表被尼日利亚所关注。nipah palm不是尼日利亚的物种，自从引进当地以后就面对过度泛滥的问题，这也促使当地的科学家迫切关注他的可行性。如果ethanol计划不成功，他们才决定减少nipah palm的面积。
Friday August 17, 2007 , 很戏剧性的，此项计划被取消，原因仅是短短数字（"It did not materialise"）。
source
RM1.4billions和15个科学家去向，卸任的州务大臣，10000公顷土地出租案，全无下文。
如果很戏剧性的，这个计划成功了，我们取代了巴西成为了世界第一的ethanol生产国，那么结果是？
1.巴西征收100%入口税，进不了他们的市场。
2.巴西采取报复行动，他们有5000万公顷可开发为油棕的种植地。
（修正 2008-nov-16: 根据F.O.LITCH的统计,近几年美国已超越巴西成为世界第一的ethanol生产国，恕我孤陋寡闻。但美国的ethanol不对外出口，因为自己不够用。保持原文面貌，不修改原文。）
怎样都是死。
连biodiesel都不能弄好，还大言不惭什么？
我们的政府在8月的时候强调，棕油价格不会"剧烈下跌"，结果全世界都在剧烈下跌。
Perak’s RM1.4b biofuel plant cancelled
Friday August 17, 2007
IPOH: A plan to build the country’s first biofuel plant project in Trong near Taiping is off and the state government is not saying why for fear of legal action.
Perak Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Mohamad Tajol Rosli Ghazali, who told reporters this after chairing the weekly state executive council meeting on Wednesday, only said: “It did not materialise.”
Declining to reveal the reason for cancellation of the RM1.4bil project, he said: “No need-lah. Later, I could get sued.”
Tajol Rosli was responding to queries on whether the company Pioneer Bio Industries Corp Sdn Bhd had briefed the state government on the project.
It has been reported that Pioneer Bio Industries Corp Sdn Bhd, the inventor of the nipah or mangrove palm-based ethanol, would invest RM1.4bil to set up the country’s first plant to produce biofuel on a large scale.
Its chairman Md Badrul Shah Mohd Noor has been quoted as saying the factory would be built in a 1,000ha area where some 6,000 wild nipah trees are found growing in Trong, about 82km from here.
In January, a grand ceremony was held to unveil the company’s five-storey building and announce the project.
这植物也是本地甜点ais kacang的食材，俗称亚答子，经这么一说应该不陌生了。
在中国称水椰。
他可拿来制作酒精饮料和糖浆。
详细资料不赘述，可查看 source
去年perak government-based company（Pioneer Bio Industries Corp Sdn Bhd），声称已经掌握了世界首个nipah palm for ethanol的技术专利权，决定耗资RM1.4billion，在全国各地投产ethanol。
以15个科学家为首的负责人Md Badrul Shah Mohd Noor声称，野生的nipah palm在产量和种植成本都比甘蔗和玉米ethanol强上数倍，加上他有50年的寿命，只要有10万公顷就可以应付全世界的ethanol需求了。
这个人说他们已经接受了外国订单，但他拒绝透露名字。
Pioneer Bio"戏称"nipah palm是解救温室气体排放的救星。(Malaysian Company Says Bio Fuel from Nipah Can Help Halt Global Warming)
结果这个惊人发表被尼日利亚所关注。nipah palm不是尼日利亚的物种，自从引进当地以后就面对过度泛滥的问题，这也促使当地的科学家迫切关注他的可行性。如果ethanol计划不成功，他们才决定减少nipah palm的面积。
Friday August 17, 2007 , 很戏剧性的，此项计划被取消，原因仅是短短数字（"It did not materialise"）。
source
RM1.4billions和15个科学家去向，卸任的州务大臣，10000公顷土地出租案，全无下文。
如果很戏剧性的，这个计划成功了，我们取代了巴西成为了世界第一的ethanol生产国，那么结果是？
1.巴西征收100%入口税，进不了他们的市场。
2.巴西采取报复行动，他们有5000万公顷可开发为油棕的种植地。
（修正 2008-nov-16: 根据F.O.LITCH的统计,近几年美国已超越巴西成为世界第一的ethanol生产国，恕我孤陋寡闻。但美国的ethanol不对外出口，因为自己不够用。保持原文面貌，不修改原文。）
怎样都是死。
连biodiesel都不能弄好，还大言不惭什么？
我们的政府在8月的时候强调，棕油价格不会"剧烈下跌"，结果全世界都在剧烈下跌。
Perak’s RM1.4b biofuel plant cancelled
Friday August 17, 2007
IPOH: A plan to build the country’s first biofuel plant project in Trong near Taiping is off and the state government is not saying why for fear of legal action.
Perak Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Mohamad Tajol Rosli Ghazali, who told reporters this after chairing the weekly state executive council meeting on Wednesday, only said: “It did not materialise.”
Declining to reveal the reason for cancellation of the RM1.4bil project, he said: “No need-lah. Later, I could get sued.”
Tajol Rosli was responding to queries on whether the company Pioneer Bio Industries Corp Sdn Bhd had briefed the state government on the project.
It has been reported that Pioneer Bio Industries Corp Sdn Bhd, the inventor of the nipah or mangrove palm-based ethanol, would invest RM1.4bil to set up the country’s first plant to produce biofuel on a large scale.
Its chairman Md Badrul Shah Mohd Noor has been quoted as saying the factory would be built in a 1,000ha area where some 6,000 wild nipah trees are found growing in Trong, about 82km from here.
In January, a grand ceremony was held to unveil the company’s five-storey building and announce the project.
12 November 2008
IOI property 's sentosa project
IOICORP的产业臂膀IOIPROP（75%share）, 在2008年前半年，和当地的上市公司和美发展(Ho Bee Investment Limited)，组成了Joint Venture ,联合竞标了sentosa cove的两个地段。
这两个地段分别是
1. PINNACLE COLLECTION
Land Area：231677 square feet
floor/land ratio : 2.6
floor Area: 602360 square feet
总竞标价是SGD1,097,499,999， 也就是每square feet折合1822新元。
unit: 357 units
Ioiprop's share:65%
2. SEAVIEW COLLECTION
Land Area：157146 square feet
floor/land ratio : 2.15
floor Area: 337864 square feet
总竞标价是SGD459,833,133， 也就是每square feet折合1361新元。
unit: 200 units
Ioiprop's share:50%
PINNACLE COLLECTION和SEAVIEW COLLECTION可算是sentosa cove接近尾声的发展项目，这是因为sentosa cove发展局从2003年开始就逐个售出地段，当地的地价涨了多少倍无从估计，这是因为早期的发展地段有出现超过50%以上profit margin的个案。
这个以利益至上的发展局在公开招标程序上是相当不透明的，或许可以悲观认为Ioiprop抓到的是最高价。
但是，Ho Bee Investment Limited也是早期sentosa cove的“拓荒者”之一，他想和Ioiprop一起送死？
现在就看这两个project能不能如期进展了，只是地价就已经占了那么高的成本，每单位售价相信要在6，7百万新元。
相信即使无限期停工，也不能期待地价会升值。从分析员的态度看来，ioiprop很可能高估了。
其他（新闻）
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2008/10/15/business/2277990&sec=business
http://h3uow.blogspot.com/2008/10/ioi-corp-to-postpone-sentosa-cove.html
搜索关键词：升涛湾
升涛湾发展局网站：
http://www.sentosacove.com/home.html
这两个地段分别是
1. PINNACLE COLLECTION
Land Area：231677 square feet
floor/land ratio : 2.6
floor Area: 602360 square feet
总竞标价是SGD1,097,499,999， 也就是每square feet折合1822新元。
unit: 357 units
Ioiprop's share:65%
2. SEAVIEW COLLECTION
Land Area：157146 square feet
floor/land ratio : 2.15
floor Area: 337864 square feet
总竞标价是SGD459,833,133， 也就是每square feet折合1361新元。
unit: 200 units
Ioiprop's share:50%
PINNACLE COLLECTION和SEAVIEW COLLECTION可算是sentosa cove接近尾声的发展项目，这是因为sentosa cove发展局从2003年开始就逐个售出地段，当地的地价涨了多少倍无从估计，这是因为早期的发展地段有出现超过50%以上profit margin的个案。
这个以利益至上的发展局在公开招标程序上是相当不透明的，或许可以悲观认为Ioiprop抓到的是最高价。
但是，Ho Bee Investment Limited也是早期sentosa cove的“拓荒者”之一，他想和Ioiprop一起送死？
现在就看这两个project能不能如期进展了，只是地价就已经占了那么高的成本，每单位售价相信要在6，7百万新元。
相信即使无限期停工，也不能期待地价会升值。从分析员的态度看来，ioiprop很可能高估了。
其他（新闻）
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2008/10/15/business/2277990&sec=business
http://h3uow.blogspot.com/2008/10/ioi-corp-to-postpone-sentosa-cove.html
搜索关键词：升涛湾
升涛湾发展局网站：
http://www.sentosacove.com/home.html
08 November 2008
IOI Corporation的本季成绩“尚可”
RM290,500,000的单季盈利是不幸中的大幸，这是中立说法。
但账上盈利不是真实的盈利，如果公司的公告说明属实的话，那么本季的盈利是不错的。
IOI记入帐目的外汇亏损主要有以下1)和2)两个部分：
1）以美元定价的债务：美元增值对IOI不利，当季亏损是RM212.2 million。
2）以外币定价的交易：欧元贬值对IOI不利，美元增值对IOI有利，当季亏损是RM100.6 million。
3）其他，新元和日圆债务：没有记入帐目。
1)和2)总亏损是RM312.8 million。
要解决以上问题，就必须执行“对冲”。
由于对冲商品在结算日以前的盈利或亏损都不被记录，因此本季的IOI外汇亏损只单是外汇亏损而已，他们并没有记入对冲盈利（也可能有，只是不确定）。
近月外汇相当动荡。例如中信泰富，因为澳元大幅下跌而蒙受20亿美元对冲亏损，在韩国也有个案。
和中信泰富不同，IOI的对冲（在三个月内）是赚钱的。（如果文告属实）
这是因为IOI每季都会签新的contract，对冲美元债务和欧元贸易，这些contract期限从3个月到4年不等。
举一个例子，如果他在2008年7月签了份有利于他的contract，不管他赚了多少都不能记入盈利，如果他没有到期。
随着营业额增加，IOI也同时增加了对冲的仓位。在currency的部分，从去年度的39.58亿仓位增加到2008六月的53.06亿仓位，之后迅速退到2008九月的45.34亿仓位。
虽然在9月份他的Forward foreign exchange contract仓位大量减少了，但是他们却签了另外一种contract--Structured foreign exchange contract。
我对这类的Structured商品是高度怀疑的，这是因为此类商品是OTC(over the counter)完成，欠缺透明度，而且可能有不公平的条款，例如limited gain, unlimited loss.
【edit lately on 17 april 09，由于对这产品过于生疏，很多说错和说漏的地方已无法纠正，如果想了解这类结构商品的细节，可阅这个较新的分析】
Currency target redemption forward contract,是属于新型的结构商品，相信是从target redemption note衍生出来的，看来这至多是两年而已。
文中出现的“reputable banks”，意义上再清楚不过了，IOI拒绝透露和谁签（或者是该银行拒绝透露）。
但我相信这是Citibank或Hsbc兜售的，这是因为中信泰富也有向他们签。
以USD/MYR Target Redemption Forward为例。
USD/MYR越高（美元增值），对IOI有利。
USD/MYR越低（美元贬值），对IOI不利。
但不要忘记，或许他附带了limited gain, unlimited loss条款。
除了以上的currency contract以外，尚包括Interest rate swap contracts和Commodity contracts，但仓位不大，因此不述。
美元债务亏损说明补充
US/RM rate
06/30/2008 3.259
09/30/2008 3.453
美元增值 5.95%
美元债务：1120093000美元
IOI已经变成高度依赖leverage的企业，人事变动和商品冷却的打击，令到她的financial control“序中有乱”，股价也走火入魔，我也极不认同他的buy back scheme。
投资，要看他还能不能相信。
投机，小赌怡情。
我不相信业务涵盖上中下，打击是最小的。
如果我们拿出2007和2008的manufacturing-based的成绩比较，答案已经否决了。
但账上盈利不是真实的盈利，如果公司的公告说明属实的话，那么本季的盈利是不错的。
IOI记入帐目的外汇亏损主要有以下1)和2)两个部分：
1）以美元定价的债务：美元增值对IOI不利，当季亏损是RM212.2 million。
2）以外币定价的交易：欧元贬值对IOI不利，美元增值对IOI有利，当季亏损是RM100.6 million。
3）其他，新元和日圆债务：没有记入帐目。
1)和2)总亏损是RM312.8 million。
要解决以上问题，就必须执行“对冲”。
由于对冲商品在结算日以前的盈利或亏损都不被记录，因此本季的IOI外汇亏损只单是外汇亏损而已，他们并没有记入对冲盈利（也可能有，只是不确定）。
近月外汇相当动荡。例如中信泰富，因为澳元大幅下跌而蒙受20亿美元对冲亏损，在韩国也有个案。
和中信泰富不同，IOI的对冲（在三个月内）是赚钱的。（如果文告属实）
这是因为IOI每季都会签新的contract，对冲美元债务和欧元贸易，这些contract期限从3个月到4年不等。
举一个例子，如果他在2008年7月签了份有利于他的contract，不管他赚了多少都不能记入盈利，如果他没有到期。
随着营业额增加，IOI也同时增加了对冲的仓位。在currency的部分，从去年度的39.58亿仓位增加到2008六月的53.06亿仓位，之后迅速退到2008九月的45.34亿仓位。
虽然在9月份他的Forward foreign exchange contract仓位大量减少了，但是他们却签了另外一种contract--Structured foreign exchange contract。
我对这类的Structured商品是高度怀疑的，这是因为此类商品是OTC(over the counter)完成，欠缺透明度，而且可能有不公平的条款，例如limited gain, unlimited loss.
【edit lately on 17 april 09，由于对这产品过于生疏，很多说错和说漏的地方已无法纠正，如果想了解这类结构商品的细节，可阅这个较新的分析】
Currency target redemption forward contract,是属于新型的结构商品，相信是从target redemption note衍生出来的，看来这至多是两年而已。
文中出现的“reputable banks”，意义上再清楚不过了，IOI拒绝透露和谁签（或者是该银行拒绝透露）。
但我相信这是Citibank或Hsbc兜售的，这是因为中信泰富也有向他们签。
以USD/MYR Target Redemption Forward为例。
USD/MYR越高（美元增值），对IOI有利。
USD/MYR越低（美元贬值），对IOI不利。
但不要忘记，或许他附带了limited gain, unlimited loss条款。
除了以上的currency contract以外，尚包括Interest rate swap contracts和Commodity contracts，但仓位不大，因此不述。
美元债务亏损说明补充
US/RM rate
06/30/2008 3.259
09/30/2008 3.453
美元增值 5.95%
美元债务：1120093000美元
IOI已经变成高度依赖leverage的企业，人事变动和商品冷却的打击，令到她的financial control“序中有乱”，股价也走火入魔，我也极不认同他的buy back scheme。
投资，要看他还能不能相信。
投机，小赌怡情。
我不相信业务涵盖上中下，打击是最小的。
如果我们拿出2007和2008的manufacturing-based的成绩比较，答案已经否决了。
06 November 2008
Early detection of oil palm resistance to a devastating fungus
主要内容是，油棕长期面对一种叫做Ganoderma boninense真菌类植物的危害，农科学家找了不同样本进行测试，以找出应对措施。
其中一个方法是大量繁殖另一种真菌类（Trichoderma harzianum），以遏制Ganoderma boninense。Trichoderma harzianum也用在黄豆。
Oil palm is the most widely produced and consumed vegetable oil in developing countries. With around 3.3 tonnes per hectare per year, it is 7 or 8 times more productive than soybean oil. Palm and soybean are the most widely consumed oils worldwide. Indonesia and Malaysia are the world’s leading palm oil producers, with 12 and 14 million tonnes of oil per year respectively. However, a soil fungus, Ganoderma boninense, which causes basal stem rot in oil palms, devastates thousands of hectares of plantings in Southeast Asia every year.
The Ganoderma problem has been known for decades, but the search for solutions has been considerably hampered by a natural constraint: the disease does not cause symptoms until the palms are at least 7 to 15 years old. Until now, the only control method has centred on cropping techniques, notably ploughing before planting and felling of diseased palms during the growing cycle. However, this has had limited results.
In 2001, trials on palms planted between 1974 and 1993 showed that in Indonesia, the mortality rate differed between the main genetic origins used, and also within those origins. The idea was thus to develop an early test of susceptibility to the disease, with a view to selecting sources of resistance as soon as possible.
To this end, it was necessary to find a means of inoculating the fungus artificially, to ensure rapid symptom expression. This was a tricky business, as disease expression is governed by numerous factors: the aggressiveness of the pathogen strain, the form in which the fungus is inoculated, the time taken to prepare the Ganoderma before inoculation, and certain environmental factors (light, temperature, humidity, etc). Moreover, the aim was to obtain disease symptoms on palms as young as possible, in a uniform, reproducible way. It was also vital to be able to correlate the results with field observations.
Three years on, researchers have risen to the challenge: it is now possible to control inoculation of the fungus, and symptoms can be achieved in palms barely three months old.
The technique developed consists in using a rubber log prepared in a predetermined way. The fungus is grown on the log for 12 to 16 weeks. The log is placed in a pot and covered with soil in which a germinated oil palm seed is planted a standard distance from the log. The inoculated seedlings are placed in semi-natural shade until disease symptoms occur. The method is both quick and easy. As in the field, trials have revealed differences in mortality rate between genetic origins and in aggressiveness between Ganoderma strains.
What remains is to validate the inoculation protocol on a large scale so as to test thousands of seedlings per year and develop a reliable, quick selection tool. Once this has been achieved, which should shortly be the case, it will be possible to supply plantations in Southeast Asia with material with a satisfactory level of resistance to Ganoderma.
As the test can induce the disease both quickly and reliably, it also opens the way for research into the diversity of Ganoderma strains and the efficacy of certain antagonistic fungi or fungicides against Ganoderma. In the long term, the tool should be of use in developing an integrated control method combining cropping practices with genetic, biological and chemical factors.
其中一个方法是大量繁殖另一种真菌类（Trichoderma harzianum），以遏制Ganoderma boninense。Trichoderma harzianum也用在黄豆。
Oil palm is the most widely produced and consumed vegetable oil in developing countries. With around 3.3 tonnes per hectare per year, it is 7 or 8 times more productive than soybean oil. Palm and soybean are the most widely consumed oils worldwide. Indonesia and Malaysia are the world’s leading palm oil producers, with 12 and 14 million tonnes of oil per year respectively. However, a soil fungus, Ganoderma boninense, which causes basal stem rot in oil palms, devastates thousands of hectares of plantings in Southeast Asia every year.
The Ganoderma problem has been known for decades, but the search for solutions has been considerably hampered by a natural constraint: the disease does not cause symptoms until the palms are at least 7 to 15 years old. Until now, the only control method has centred on cropping techniques, notably ploughing before planting and felling of diseased palms during the growing cycle. However, this has had limited results.
In 2001, trials on palms planted between 1974 and 1993 showed that in Indonesia, the mortality rate differed between the main genetic origins used, and also within those origins. The idea was thus to develop an early test of susceptibility to the disease, with a view to selecting sources of resistance as soon as possible.
To this end, it was necessary to find a means of inoculating the fungus artificially, to ensure rapid symptom expression. This was a tricky business, as disease expression is governed by numerous factors: the aggressiveness of the pathogen strain, the form in which the fungus is inoculated, the time taken to prepare the Ganoderma before inoculation, and certain environmental factors (light, temperature, humidity, etc). Moreover, the aim was to obtain disease symptoms on palms as young as possible, in a uniform, reproducible way. It was also vital to be able to correlate the results with field observations.
Three years on, researchers have risen to the challenge: it is now possible to control inoculation of the fungus, and symptoms can be achieved in palms barely three months old.
The technique developed consists in using a rubber log prepared in a predetermined way. The fungus is grown on the log for 12 to 16 weeks. The log is placed in a pot and covered with soil in which a germinated oil palm seed is planted a standard distance from the log. The inoculated seedlings are placed in semi-natural shade until disease symptoms occur. The method is both quick and easy. As in the field, trials have revealed differences in mortality rate between genetic origins and in aggressiveness between Ganoderma strains.
What remains is to validate the inoculation protocol on a large scale so as to test thousands of seedlings per year and develop a reliable, quick selection tool. Once this has been achieved, which should shortly be the case, it will be possible to supply plantations in Southeast Asia with material with a satisfactory level of resistance to Ganoderma.
As the test can induce the disease both quickly and reliably, it also opens the way for research into the diversity of Ganoderma strains and the efficacy of certain antagonistic fungi or fungicides against Ganoderma. In the long term, the tool should be of use in developing an integrated control method combining cropping practices with genetic, biological and chemical factors.
05 November 2008
从GOOGLE MAP看SARAWAK的两个地方土霸
张老板和刘老板，是众所周知的世仇，他们从东马斗到西马，从木材斗到媒体。
张老板渗透到西马的时间较早，因此他的影响力较广，也被人所熟悉，也比较有钱。
刘老板比较坚守自己的地方势力，这可以从诗华日报和星洲日报的读者销量看到区别。
虽然星洲日报的古晋销量比诗华日报高出很多，但这也是政治干涉的结果。在其他偏远地方，星洲日报售卖RM3一份并不出奇，从星洲日报没有再标价东马价格看出端倪。
西马方面，刘老板的势力代表就是东方日报和8TV。
两个人都是靠“砍伐”木材起家的，可能是政治上“分而治之”策略需要，他们都相安无事。
正因为两人做的事都一样，揭对方疮疤就等于揭自己的疮疤，不会自讨没趣。
我们可以从GOOGLE MAP得到证明他们是相亲相爱的。刘老板的油棕园和张老板的木材区毗邻。
A点是KAMPONG BATANG LASSA，褐色区相信是油棕开辟地，右边的绿色区就是张老板的地盘了。
许多SARAWAK-BASED PLANTATION COMPANIES，他们的母公司都是做木材的，要投资他们最好要知道他们的背景。
虽然SABAH的总体表现比西马出色，但税务架构扯平了优势。
如果你看见夫妻吵架，不必多事劝架，张老板和刘老板的关系也是这么维系的。
Google map的卫星扫描的时间落后了3年-5年不等，也与wikimapia版本不同，如果要追加，就得找破解后的版本了。
张老板渗透到西马的时间较早，因此他的影响力较广，也被人所熟悉，也比较有钱。
刘老板比较坚守自己的地方势力，这可以从诗华日报和星洲日报的读者销量看到区别。
虽然星洲日报的古晋销量比诗华日报高出很多，但这也是政治干涉的结果。在其他偏远地方，星洲日报售卖RM3一份并不出奇，从星洲日报没有再标价东马价格看出端倪。
西马方面，刘老板的势力代表就是东方日报和8TV。
两个人都是靠“砍伐”木材起家的，可能是政治上“分而治之”策略需要，他们都相安无事。
正因为两人做的事都一样，揭对方疮疤就等于揭自己的疮疤，不会自讨没趣。
我们可以从GOOGLE MAP得到证明他们是相亲相爱的。刘老板的油棕园和张老板的木材区毗邻。
A点是KAMPONG BATANG LASSA，褐色区相信是油棕开辟地，右边的绿色区就是张老板的地盘了。
许多SARAWAK-BASED PLANTATION COMPANIES，他们的母公司都是做木材的，要投资他们最好要知道他们的背景。
虽然SABAH的总体表现比西马出色，但税务架构扯平了优势。
如果你看见夫妻吵架，不必多事劝架，张老板和刘老板的关系也是这么维系的。
Google map的卫星扫描的时间落后了3年-5年不等，也与wikimapia版本不同，如果要追加，就得找破解后的版本了。
Palm pulverisation in sustainable oil palm replanting
source
早期的翻种方法是放火，但现在已经被禁止（假的）。放火的好处是把甲虫消灭和保留养分，也可避免Ganoderma boninense（菇菌类）的滋生，如果根部没有处理好，腐烂以后的根部会长Ganoderma boninense，后遗症可以纠缠几十年。所以总结来看，放火是必要的，但坏处是有益的昆虫也会被消灭。
但由于现在提倡环保，这类的翻种方法已被Palm pulverisation（“粉状”）技术取代。这个技术能够缩短休耕期，也能省下翻种成本。
早期的翻种方法是放火，但现在已经被禁止（假的）。放火的好处是把甲虫消灭和保留养分，也可避免Ganoderma boninense（菇菌类）的滋生，如果根部没有处理好，腐烂以后的根部会长Ganoderma boninense，后遗症可以纠缠几十年。所以总结来看，放火是必要的，但坏处是有益的昆虫也会被消灭。
但由于现在提倡环保，这类的翻种方法已被Palm pulverisation（“粉状”）技术取代。这个技术能够缩短休耕期，也能省下翻种成本。
04 November 2008
马来西亚是棕油人均消耗最高的国家
早年大量栽种油棕，政府为了保护，强制了其他油类的入口税，造成国人的palm oil comsumption per capita居世界之冠。
根据<油世界>报告，马来西亚的棕油消耗量是2,300,000吨，继中国,欧盟,印度,印尼之后，如果按人口率来看，palm oil comsumption per capita居世界之冠。
我们这样说恐怕有欠公道，这是因为
closing stock = opening stock + production - export + import - comsumption。
comsumption并不全是国内食用消耗，因为他很有可能用在工业和食品加工，这些并不会记录在cpo栏里，
但如果我们深入探讨印尼,尼日利亚,哥伦比牙,巴布亚新几内亚,泰国的饮食习惯，你就会知道马来西亚人吃棕油特别厉害。巴布亚新几内亚人几乎不吃棕油，他们全部出口(至少数据是这么写的)。
印尼是黄豆油和椰油消耗国，转型为棕油消耗国，之后变成棕油出口国，比马来西亚晚起步。但他只用了5年时间，就把产量提升了80%。
其他争议需注解(博主非专家，不能确保无误)。
食用棕油(refined palm olein)比其他的植物油，更容易让有害胆固醇上升。至于预防心血管病的棕油成分，微量而已。
棕油只比氢化植物油(trans-fat)危害少一点，所以才被世界卫生组织（WHO）认可。但WHO没有要你多吃。
虽然美国近年来的棕油入口显著上升，但他只用在食品加工。
很多人说棕油有害健康是美国人的阴谋，但其实做这些试验的人是荷兰和德国人，恰好荷兰是棕油入口国，这怎么是阴谋呢？或许荷兰人想把棕油贬低，然后入口多一点？有这可能。
国外科学试验证明palmatic acid让有害胆固醇上升，但这被棕油业者否决了，因为他们说他们也有证据（到底信谁？）
虽然lauric acid证实是有益健康的，但他在palm kernel oil里。
人们相信油棕是最高功率的经济作物，这话不可靠。如果要相信，请务必拿出其他经济作物的数据出来。
我们不能活在自己的世界里，情况就像有人告诉你国产车(ProXXX)是最好的那样。你知道TAN SRI们最常吃什么油吗？如果不知道，就该保持怀疑。
根据<油世界>报告，马来西亚的棕油消耗量是2,300,000吨，继中国,欧盟,印度,印尼之后，如果按人口率来看，palm oil comsumption per capita居世界之冠。
我们这样说恐怕有欠公道，这是因为
closing stock = opening stock + production - export + import - comsumption。
comsumption并不全是国内食用消耗，因为他很有可能用在工业和食品加工，这些并不会记录在cpo栏里，
但如果我们深入探讨印尼,尼日利亚,哥伦比牙,巴布亚新几内亚,泰国的饮食习惯，你就会知道马来西亚人吃棕油特别厉害。巴布亚新几内亚人几乎不吃棕油，他们全部出口(至少数据是这么写的)。
印尼是黄豆油和椰油消耗国，转型为棕油消耗国，之后变成棕油出口国，比马来西亚晚起步。但他只用了5年时间，就把产量提升了80%。
其他争议需注解(博主非专家，不能确保无误)。
食用棕油(refined palm olein)比其他的植物油，更容易让有害胆固醇上升。至于预防心血管病的棕油成分，微量而已。
棕油只比氢化植物油(trans-fat)危害少一点，所以才被世界卫生组织（WHO）认可。但WHO没有要你多吃。
虽然美国近年来的棕油入口显著上升，但他只用在食品加工。
很多人说棕油有害健康是美国人的阴谋，但其实做这些试验的人是荷兰和德国人，恰好荷兰是棕油入口国，这怎么是阴谋呢？或许荷兰人想把棕油贬低，然后入口多一点？有这可能。
国外科学试验证明palmatic acid让有害胆固醇上升，但这被棕油业者否决了，因为他们说他们也有证据（到底信谁？）
虽然lauric acid证实是有益健康的，但他在palm kernel oil里。
人们相信油棕是最高功率的经济作物，这话不可靠。如果要相信，请务必拿出其他经济作物的数据出来。
我们不能活在自己的世界里，情况就像有人告诉你国产车(ProXXX)是最好的那样。你知道TAN SRI们最常吃什么油吗？如果不知道，就该保持怀疑。
02 November 2008
BKAWAN售17% PTSA 给KLK , 是宗不正常交易
BKAWAN售17% PTSA 给KLK .
完成转让后，KLK 的 PTSA股权将从48%上升至65%。
简介
PT Sekarbumi Alamlestari ("PTSA")的48%和17%股权，由KLK和BKAWAN个别持有。
BKAWAN售出17% PTSA 给KLK，开价USD12,909,405。
17%卖方
FOREVER GREEN VENTURE LTD ("FGV") ，FGV是BKAWAN坐落在毛里求斯共和国的独资公司。
17%买方
KL-Kepong Plantation Holdings Sdn. Bhd. (“KLKPH”)，KLK马来西亚独资公司。
（原本的48%相信还在毛里求斯）
BKAWAN 的17% PTSA股权来自FGVL：
FGVL 是在4 September 2002买入的，注册于毛里求斯，叫价USD2,635,000。
当时FGVL持17% PTSA。
17% PTSA成本是 USD1,116,500（最近才透露）。
KLK的48% PTSA股权来自VPL：
KLK买进的是注册于毛里求斯的VERDANT PLANTATIONS LIMITED ("VPL")，叫价USD7,440,000。
当时VPL持48% PTSA。
FGV成立日是 25 February 2002，母公司是Champs Worldwide Group Inc and Larkhill Trading Offshore Ltd
BKAWAN买入FGV在 4 September 2002
FGV的中文意思是“长青”。
VPL成立日是 25 February 2002，母公司是Tri Premium Enterprises Ltd and Goldring Services Ltd
KLK买入VPL在 4 June 2002
VPL的中文意思是“翠绿”。
更让人不解的是，以下四家公司的资料不详：
Champs Worldwide Group Inc
Larkhill Trading Offshore Ltd
Tri Premium Enterprises Ltd
Goldring Services Ltd
他们也就是PTSA在2002年的卖方，PTSA原本的主人。
原本这是一项普通得不能再普通的交易，但是我们怀疑KLK“特别交代”分析员讲好话，以淡化这项交易。
一座每小时能处理30顿FFB的（破旧）milling，估值是RM18,000,000。
6,200 hectares of plantation land located in Siak Hulu, Kabupaten Kampar in Province of Riau, Republic of Indonesia
total planted area in 2002: 5,400 hectares
total planted area in 2008: 5,150 hectares
由此可见，800-1000公顷的土地，很难开发，估值会很低。
如果按17%，只计算5150公顷种植地，那么每公顷的买入成本是RM48695。
以这平均价格买入13-16岁的油棕，贵得离谱。
GEARING
最不透明的地方，就是PTSA有多少的债务？
如果PTSA是负债公司，那么上述的平均成本可以是RM50000-RM60000。
KLK没有预测GEARING。
KLK一年里的买卖不计其数，从何查起？相信这只是其中一个不正常交易。
如果说他是"不正当"交易，就过严重了。
但很难避免不这么想。
其他
KLK面临油漆业务和生物医药业务（LIFE SCIENCE）的亏损，但规模渺小。
其他（剪报）
October 21, 2008 22:53 PM
KLK Increases Stake In Indonesia's Plantation Firm For RM45.44 Mil
KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 21 (Bernama) -- Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd (KLK) via its unit KL-Kepong Plantation Holdings Bhd will pay US$12.909 million (RM45.44 million) for an additional 17 percent stake in Indonesia-based PT Sekarbumi Alamlestari (PT SA), said the company in a filing to Bursa Malaysia.
KLK has an existing 48 percent interest in PT SA and with the latest purchase from Forever Green Venture Ltd (FGVL), its stake will increase to 65 percent, hence, making PT SA a unit of KLK, said the company.
FGVL is a wholly-owned unit of Batu Kawan Bhd (BKB).
The acquisition, which is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2009 will allow KLK to consolidate the landbanks and financial results of PT SA.
BKB in a separate filing to Bursa Malaysia said the disposal provides an opportunity to the group to realise capital gains on the said plantation investement,"bearing in mind that FGVL's 17 percent minority shareholding does not allow Batu Kawan to equity account for PT SA's result."
The disposal will result in capital gain of US$11.15 million (RM39.26 million), which will increase the earnings per share of BKB group by 9.1 sen.
-- BERNAMA
29 October 2008
Indonesia has cut the export tax on crude palm oil to zero per cent from 2.5 per cent previously
JAKARTA: Malaysian palm futures dropped more than 4 per cent by mid-day today amid worries that buyers will seek palm oil from rival Indonesia after Jakarta scrapped a tax on palm oil exports, traders said.
Indonesia’s finance minister said yesterday the export tax on crude palm oil had been cut to zero per cent, as part of a package of measures intended to shore up confidence in financial markets.
“News from Indonesia is going to be closely monitored. That’s bearish news for us because buyers will import more from Indonesia,” a trader at a Kuala Lumpur-based brokerage firm said.
The benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange dropped RM60, or 4.11 per cent, to RM1,399 (US$399) a tonne by mid-day.
The January contract hit a low of RM1,331 per tonne yesterday, the weakest since mid-August 2005.
Contracts of other traded months dropped between RM39 and RM67. The overall volume stood at 2,962 tonnes.
The Indonesian government had previously set a 2.5 per cent tax rate for palm oil exports in November, down from 7.5 per cent for October.
Indonesia, the world’s top producer of palm oil — which is used in a wide range of products from soap to biodiesel - is forecast to produce 18.6 million tonnes of crude palm oil this year, compared with 17.2 million tonnes in 2007.
Apart from news on Indonesian tax, lower crude oil prices are also adding to the negative tone for palm markets, a trader at a Malaysian commodity brokerage said.
US crude futures were up US$1.71, or 2.73 per cent, to US$64.44 a barrel at 0511 GMT in Asian trading, off a high of US$66.71 earlier.
The most active December soybean oil rose 0.54 cents, or 1.69 per cent, to 32.42 cents per lb.
In the physical market, Malaysian palm oil for October and November delivery stood at RM1,400/1,420 a tonne in the southern and central region.
Trades were done at RM1,420-RM1,440 in the southern region and RM1,410-RM1,440 a tonne in the central region. - Reuters
Indonesia’s finance minister said yesterday the export tax on crude palm oil had been cut to zero per cent, as part of a package of measures intended to shore up confidence in financial markets.
“News from Indonesia is going to be closely monitored. That’s bearish news for us because buyers will import more from Indonesia,” a trader at a Kuala Lumpur-based brokerage firm said.
The benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange dropped RM60, or 4.11 per cent, to RM1,399 (US$399) a tonne by mid-day.
The January contract hit a low of RM1,331 per tonne yesterday, the weakest since mid-August 2005.
Contracts of other traded months dropped between RM39 and RM67. The overall volume stood at 2,962 tonnes.
The Indonesian government had previously set a 2.5 per cent tax rate for palm oil exports in November, down from 7.5 per cent for October.
Indonesia, the world’s top producer of palm oil — which is used in a wide range of products from soap to biodiesel - is forecast to produce 18.6 million tonnes of crude palm oil this year, compared with 17.2 million tonnes in 2007.
Apart from news on Indonesian tax, lower crude oil prices are also adding to the negative tone for palm markets, a trader at a Malaysian commodity brokerage said.
US crude futures were up US$1.71, or 2.73 per cent, to US$64.44 a barrel at 0511 GMT in Asian trading, off a high of US$66.71 earlier.
The most active December soybean oil rose 0.54 cents, or 1.69 per cent, to 32.42 cents per lb.
In the physical market, Malaysian palm oil for October and November delivery stood at RM1,400/1,420 a tonne in the southern and central region.
Trades were done at RM1,420-RM1,440 in the southern region and RM1,410-RM1,440 a tonne in the central region. - Reuters
SOP被湿地组织盯上了
http://www.wetlands.org/Aboutwetlandareas/Threatenedwetlandsites/PeatswampforestsofSarawakMalaysia/tabid/1368/Default.aspx
环保人士虽痛恨这些，但我却对这个消息感到无奈和同情。
Sarawak的木材砍伐虽然给环境造成破坏，但却让贫穷率降低，虽然说发财的人只有1000个人，但如果他们不发财的话，他们就没有钱做地方发展和地方事业了，这是相当矛盾的。
Peat swamp forest是和“国家公园”或“保护地”挂上等号的，长久以来他们被水掩盖，如果要转换成油棕园，就一定要挖排水沟（Drainage canal），和砍伐红树林和沼泽林。砍伐后的树木，马上就地取材，通过Drainage canal输送出去。
森林局常常推托他们的湿地常常遭遇起火，想信这是他们通关默许的。虽然湿地组织深入当地教育和防范，但这股趋势是不能被阻止的。
环保人士虽痛恨这些，但我却对这个消息感到无奈和同情。
Sarawak的木材砍伐虽然给环境造成破坏，但却让贫穷率降低，虽然说发财的人只有1000个人，但如果他们不发财的话，他们就没有钱做地方发展和地方事业了，这是相当矛盾的。
Peat swamp forest是和“国家公园”或“保护地”挂上等号的，长久以来他们被水掩盖，如果要转换成油棕园，就一定要挖排水沟（Drainage canal），和砍伐红树林和沼泽林。砍伐后的树木，马上就地取材，通过Drainage canal输送出去。
森林局常常推托他们的湿地常常遭遇起火，想信这是他们通关默许的。虽然湿地组织深入当地教育和防范，但这股趋势是不能被阻止的。
陈华贵的承诺信得过吗？
这个星期4或5（懒得查），政府商议对策，以解决当前的问题，到时会有什么提案出炉呢？
先来做些预测
1.小园主翻种融资，面对许多阻碍。政府相信会向银行施加压力，放宽融资。
2.对外贸易，提供更便利的银行担保。
3.肥料津贴。
4.津贴生柴厂商，每公吨RM450，并定下国内强制混合柴油的时间表。
5.加强对烧芭活动和永续经营的监管。
我们认为这些都是“讲容易，做很难”的选项。
如果是1，很可能会害了他们，如果他们血本无归怎么办？
如果是3，就意味着cpo不会起的讯号更加强烈了，不津贴还好，一津贴就表示你投降了。
如果是4，更难，因为厂商迟迟不开工。
biodiesel capacity最大wilmar宁可选择在印尼开厂也不要马来西亚开厂，问题出在哪里？相信这是因为印尼不对生柴征收出口税，估量后，他们觉得在印尼开厂更好（宁可不要马来西亚的津贴？）。
如果是5，不可能。
马印两地的火点（HAZE/HOT SPOT），从来就不曾减少过，可以预见的是，这个月会有更多的火点。
目前的情况是“相当凄惨”，但还没有到“很凄惨”的程度，我们必须经历“很凄惨”的阶段，才可能回到舒适水平。以经济操盘手的角度分析，应该是这样。
6.取消州税。
又怀疑，又期待。
先来做些预测
1.小园主翻种融资，面对许多阻碍。政府相信会向银行施加压力，放宽融资。
2.对外贸易，提供更便利的银行担保。
3.肥料津贴。
4.津贴生柴厂商，每公吨RM450，并定下国内强制混合柴油的时间表。
5.加强对烧芭活动和永续经营的监管。
我们认为这些都是“讲容易，做很难”的选项。
如果是1，很可能会害了他们，如果他们血本无归怎么办？
如果是3，就意味着cpo不会起的讯号更加强烈了，不津贴还好，一津贴就表示你投降了。
如果是4，更难，因为厂商迟迟不开工。
biodiesel capacity最大wilmar宁可选择在印尼开厂也不要马来西亚开厂，问题出在哪里？相信这是因为印尼不对生柴征收出口税，估量后，他们觉得在印尼开厂更好（宁可不要马来西亚的津贴？）。
如果是5，不可能。
马印两地的火点（HAZE/HOT SPOT），从来就不曾减少过，可以预见的是，这个月会有更多的火点。
目前的情况是“相当凄惨”，但还没有到“很凄惨”的程度，我们必须经历“很凄惨”的阶段，才可能回到舒适水平。以经济操盘手的角度分析，应该是这样。
6.取消州税。
又怀疑，又期待。
28 October 2008
Cepatwawasan sees ROI of 15% from palm oil bio-energy projects
source : thestar
KUALA LUMPUR: Cepatwawasan Group Bhd expects return on investment (ROI) of about 15% on average for its two bio-energy projects costing RM80mil that would use palm waste to generate electricity.
Executive chairman Datuk Mah King Thian said he expected the 3MW biogas plant and 10MW biomass fired plant, which would be built in Sandakan, to contribute about RM20mil annually to group revenue by 2011.
He told StarBiz that construction on the plants would be tendered out and work was expected to start by mid-2009 and commissioned by 2010. Financing would be from the company’s own funds and project financing.
“The projects have been endorsed by the Energy, Water and Communications Ministry under the small renewable energy programme to supply green power to the electricity grid,” he said.
Under the agreement signed last Friday, Cepatwawasan would sell power to the Sabah Electricity Sdn Bhd (SESB) and generate carbon credits derived from reduction of green house gas emissions worth more than RM20mil per annum.
Denmark’s Climate and Energy Ministry and Nordysk Elhandel A/S will undertake the clean development mechanism (CDM) projects with Cepatwawasan. The Danish government would then buy the carbon credits.
“Construction cost of the plant was RM60mil for the biomass plant and RM20mil for the biogass plant,” Mah said.
He added that Cepatwawasan was expected to sign a renewable energy power purchase agreement with SESB early next year.
Mah said the projects would utilise all waste products from the palm oil milling process to generate electricity.
Asked if the company was affected by the declining crude palm oil (CPO) prices, Mah remained optimistic about its business.
“We will be affected,” he said, but based on the first six months of this year, Cepatwawasan’s operating cost was below RM1,200 per tonne.
“So even at the current low, we are still confident that we are profitable. We have a low gearing of 0.1 times,” he said.
On the sharp fall in CPO prices, he said the panic reaction was not linked to global demand,” he said. CPO third-month futures closed at RM1,390 per tonne last Friday.
Royal Danish Ambassador Svend Waever exchanging documents with Cepatwawasan MD Datuk Mah King Seng. Looking on are Royal Danish Embassy counsellor Bo Monsted (extreme left) and Cepatwawasan Berhad executive chairman Datuk Mah King Thian (extreme right) after the signing ceremony for Clean Development Mechanism ( CDM ) project at Le Meriden Hotel, Kuala Lumpur. - Starpix by Victor K.K. Ng
another news from bernama
October 24, 2008 18:25 PM
Cepatwawasan Expects RM20 Million Annual Revenue By 2011 From Bio-Energy Business
KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 24 (Bernama) -- Main-board listed oil palm plantation company, Cepatwawasan Group Bhd, expects its bio-energy generation business to contribute about RM20 million in revenue annually by 2011.
The projection is based on the sale of electricity to Sabah Electricity Sdn Bhd (SESB) and also the carbon credits derived from certified emission reduction, its executive chairman Datuk Mah King Thian said on Friday
He said Cepatwawasan is expected to sign a renewable energy purchase agreement (Repa) with SESB early next year.
Mah was speaking after the signing of agreement for Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects between the Danish Ministry of Climate and Energy and Mistral Engineering Sdn Bhd, a subsidiary of Cepatwawasan. An agreement was also signed between Nordjysk Elhandel A/S and Mistral Engineering and Cash Horse (M) Sdn Bhd.
The ceremony was officiated by the new Danish Ambassador to Malaysia, Svend Waever.
Cash Horse is also a subsidiary of Cepatwawasan, while Nordjysk Elhandel is a Danish private limited company involved in trading and generation of power.
Cepatwawasan's two green bio-energy projects at the Prolific Yield Palm Oil Mill in Sandakan, Sabah, will utilise all waste products from the palm oil milling process and turn it into electricity.
The projects have been endorsed by the Energy, Water and Communications Ministry under the Small Renewable Energy Programme (SREP) to supply green power to the electricity grid.
The projects -- Biogas Energy Plant, at RM20 million cost, will be generating about three megawatt of power for supply to the grid of SESB, while the Biomass Energy Plant to cost RM60 million, will be able to export 10 megawatt of power to the grid of SESB.
"The total cost of RM80 million will come from internally generated funds and from project financing mainly using the Repa. The construction is expected to commence mid next year and we expect it to be completed by 2010," said Mah.
Cepatwawasan's two bio-energy projects are expected to be registered for the CDM, which is part of the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol.
CDM allows emission reducing projects to generate carbon credits and trade these with countries, which have binding targets for emission reductions under the Kyoto Protocol.
On another development, Mah said the group is setting up a Cepatwawasan Education Resource Center (CERC) at Sukau, Kinabatangan, Sabah as part of its corporate social responsibility programmes.
Mah said CERC is to provide high-level pre-school to primary education for children around Segaliud, Sukau and will benefit around 100 children from four to 12-years old.
"The total cost is estimated at about RM1 million and it will occupy an area of less than two acres. Construction is to commence next two weeks and to be completed by May 2009," he said.
Asked on the declining crude palm oil price, Mah said: "In the first six months of this year, we have analysed our operating cost at below RM1,200 per metric tonne of oil. So even at current low, we are confident that we are still profitable and also we have a low gearing at about 0.1 times."
Meanwhile, Waever said through the CDM, Denmark will assist Danish companies to enter the Malaysian market as there is a vast potential for CDM projects in Malaysia.
On the impact of the global financial crisis on trade between Denmark and Malaysia, he said the Danish Embassy expected bilateral trade to increase with Malaysia as the country was not expected to be very much affected by the crisis.
He said Danish exports to Malaysia increased by almost 20 percent year-on-year from 2006-2007 within various sectors particularly in the areas of pharmaceuticals and food.
-- BERNAMA
KUALA LUMPUR: Cepatwawasan Group Bhd expects return on investment (ROI) of about 15% on average for its two bio-energy projects costing RM80mil that would use palm waste to generate electricity.
Executive chairman Datuk Mah King Thian said he expected the 3MW biogas plant and 10MW biomass fired plant, which would be built in Sandakan, to contribute about RM20mil annually to group revenue by 2011.
He told StarBiz that construction on the plants would be tendered out and work was expected to start by mid-2009 and commissioned by 2010. Financing would be from the company’s own funds and project financing.
“The projects have been endorsed by the Energy, Water and Communications Ministry under the small renewable energy programme to supply green power to the electricity grid,” he said.
Under the agreement signed last Friday, Cepatwawasan would sell power to the Sabah Electricity Sdn Bhd (SESB) and generate carbon credits derived from reduction of green house gas emissions worth more than RM20mil per annum.
Denmark’s Climate and Energy Ministry and Nordysk Elhandel A/S will undertake the clean development mechanism (CDM) projects with Cepatwawasan. The Danish government would then buy the carbon credits.
“Construction cost of the plant was RM60mil for the biomass plant and RM20mil for the biogass plant,” Mah said.
He added that Cepatwawasan was expected to sign a renewable energy power purchase agreement with SESB early next year.
Mah said the projects would utilise all waste products from the palm oil milling process to generate electricity.
Asked if the company was affected by the declining crude palm oil (CPO) prices, Mah remained optimistic about its business.
“We will be affected,” he said, but based on the first six months of this year, Cepatwawasan’s operating cost was below RM1,200 per tonne.
“So even at the current low, we are still confident that we are profitable. We have a low gearing of 0.1 times,” he said.
On the sharp fall in CPO prices, he said the panic reaction was not linked to global demand,” he said. CPO third-month futures closed at RM1,390 per tonne last Friday.
Royal Danish Ambassador Svend Waever exchanging documents with Cepatwawasan MD Datuk Mah King Seng. Looking on are Royal Danish Embassy counsellor Bo Monsted (extreme left) and Cepatwawasan Berhad executive chairman Datuk Mah King Thian (extreme right) after the signing ceremony for Clean Development Mechanism ( CDM ) project at Le Meriden Hotel, Kuala Lumpur. - Starpix by Victor K.K. Ng
another news from bernama
October 24, 2008 18:25 PM
Cepatwawasan Expects RM20 Million Annual Revenue By 2011 From Bio-Energy Business
KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 24 (Bernama) -- Main-board listed oil palm plantation company, Cepatwawasan Group Bhd, expects its bio-energy generation business to contribute about RM20 million in revenue annually by 2011.
The projection is based on the sale of electricity to Sabah Electricity Sdn Bhd (SESB) and also the carbon credits derived from certified emission reduction, its executive chairman Datuk Mah King Thian said on Friday
He said Cepatwawasan is expected to sign a renewable energy purchase agreement (Repa) with SESB early next year.
Mah was speaking after the signing of agreement for Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects between the Danish Ministry of Climate and Energy and Mistral Engineering Sdn Bhd, a subsidiary of Cepatwawasan. An agreement was also signed between Nordjysk Elhandel A/S and Mistral Engineering and Cash Horse (M) Sdn Bhd.
The ceremony was officiated by the new Danish Ambassador to Malaysia, Svend Waever.
Cash Horse is also a subsidiary of Cepatwawasan, while Nordjysk Elhandel is a Danish private limited company involved in trading and generation of power.
Cepatwawasan's two green bio-energy projects at the Prolific Yield Palm Oil Mill in Sandakan, Sabah, will utilise all waste products from the palm oil milling process and turn it into electricity.
The projects have been endorsed by the Energy, Water and Communications Ministry under the Small Renewable Energy Programme (SREP) to supply green power to the electricity grid.
The projects -- Biogas Energy Plant, at RM20 million cost, will be generating about three megawatt of power for supply to the grid of SESB, while the Biomass Energy Plant to cost RM60 million, will be able to export 10 megawatt of power to the grid of SESB.
"The total cost of RM80 million will come from internally generated funds and from project financing mainly using the Repa. The construction is expected to commence mid next year and we expect it to be completed by 2010," said Mah.
Cepatwawasan's two bio-energy projects are expected to be registered for the CDM, which is part of the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol.
CDM allows emission reducing projects to generate carbon credits and trade these with countries, which have binding targets for emission reductions under the Kyoto Protocol.
On another development, Mah said the group is setting up a Cepatwawasan Education Resource Center (CERC) at Sukau, Kinabatangan, Sabah as part of its corporate social responsibility programmes.
Mah said CERC is to provide high-level pre-school to primary education for children around Segaliud, Sukau and will benefit around 100 children from four to 12-years old.
"The total cost is estimated at about RM1 million and it will occupy an area of less than two acres. Construction is to commence next two weeks and to be completed by May 2009," he said.
Asked on the declining crude palm oil price, Mah said: "In the first six months of this year, we have analysed our operating cost at below RM1,200 per metric tonne of oil. So even at current low, we are confident that we are still profitable and also we have a low gearing at about 0.1 times."
Meanwhile, Waever said through the CDM, Denmark will assist Danish companies to enter the Malaysian market as there is a vast potential for CDM projects in Malaysia.
On the impact of the global financial crisis on trade between Denmark and Malaysia, he said the Danish Embassy expected bilateral trade to increase with Malaysia as the country was not expected to be very much affected by the crisis.
He said Danish exports to Malaysia increased by almost 20 percent year-on-year from 2006-2007 within various sectors particularly in the areas of pharmaceuticals and food.
-- BERNAMA
My Trader's View
http://mytradersview.blogspot.com/
这名博主掌握的资料很快，推荐。
可以说他是最快拿到出口数据的BLOG。
另他也提供了港口的投标（tender ）笔数，这些数据可用来分析BMD FCPO（BURSA MALAYSIA DERIVATIVE)，当然如果你很想了解CARGO 作业和CLEARING HOUSE作业，这些数据是不够的。
我了解的不多，推荐而已。
这名博主掌握的资料很快，推荐。
可以说他是最快拿到出口数据的BLOG。
另他也提供了港口的投标（tender ）笔数，这些数据可用来分析BMD FCPO（BURSA MALAYSIA DERIVATIVE)，当然如果你很想了解CARGO 作业和CLEARING HOUSE作业，这些数据是不够的。
我了解的不多，推荐而已。
26 October 2008
碳配额市场
目前的碳配额期货交易市场, 可分为欧洲平台(European Union Allowance)和国际平台(Certified Emission Reduction)两大类.
EUA附属于UK Registry, CER附属于[京都条约].
当前的趋势是EUA和CER在整合电子交易平台,预计在April 09完成.
在现货市场方面, CER的certificate是由CDM单位监管和保留的,这个监管单位就像我们的中央股票库存系统,买卖碳配额需要通过它完成. 在世界各地都有CDM专门拍卖所(clearing house), 但这都附属于联合国.
马来西亚较普遍的是CER.
欧洲也可以参与CER.
至于UEA, 由25欧洲国家组成.
UEA的框架是进阶的,从2005-2007的PHASE I, 进阶到现在的PHASE II(2012到期).
UEA可通过私下交易,broker,exchange完成.
上述市场除了有二氧化碳交易,也有氯氟碳(冷气气体)和BIOGAS等等弄不明白的交易.
EUA比CER贵上5欧元到9欧元不等, 原因不明.
马来西亚棕油厂碳配额,每公吨是10欧元到12欧元,这应该是被转手商赚了,因为今年的CER价格是16欧元到22欧元. 等翅膀长硬以后,本地公司应该一手包办碳配额, 别让中介人赚那么多.
不要忘记一件事, 碳配额价格也会随着经济下跌的,他能下到多少根本是未知数.
EUA附属于UK Registry, CER附属于[京都条约].
当前的趋势是EUA和CER在整合电子交易平台,预计在April 09完成.
在现货市场方面, CER的certificate是由CDM单位监管和保留的,这个监管单位就像我们的中央股票库存系统,买卖碳配额需要通过它完成. 在世界各地都有CDM专门拍卖所(clearing house), 但这都附属于联合国.
马来西亚较普遍的是CER.
欧洲也可以参与CER.
至于UEA, 由25欧洲国家组成.
UEA的框架是进阶的,从2005-2007的PHASE I, 进阶到现在的PHASE II(2012到期).
UEA可通过私下交易,broker,exchange完成.
上述市场除了有二氧化碳交易,也有氯氟碳(冷气气体)和BIOGAS等等弄不明白的交易.
EUA比CER贵上5欧元到9欧元不等, 原因不明.
马来西亚棕油厂碳配额,每公吨是10欧元到12欧元,这应该是被转手商赚了,因为今年的CER价格是16欧元到22欧元. 等翅膀长硬以后,本地公司应该一手包办碳配额, 别让中介人赚那么多.
不要忘记一件事, 碳配额价格也会随着经济下跌的,他能下到多少根本是未知数.
24 October 2008
M’sian palm oil mills to drive Ronser’s growth
CARBON CREDIT是个有趣的东西，但也会随时蚀本。
CB也会供过于求（如果局势差下去）。
CB可在Chicago Climate Exchange购买，在EBAY都能找到（不懂真不真），你也可以付钱给砍树的人禁止他砍树，或栽种树木，以换取CARBON UNIT。
其中最赚钱的人，是转手商，但注册费是数万美元。
Friday October 24, 2008
By LAW KAI CHOW
DAMANSARA: Ronser Bio-Tech Sdn Bhd, a newly set up industrial waste treatment company, will focus on palm oil mills in Malaysia to drive growth.
Company advisor Chua Peng Len said the company was targeting palm oil mills, as the potential was good because Malaysia palm oil mills were still using the old system for waste treatment.
“The palm oil mill market is large in Malaysia, as there are about 400 palm oil mills in Malaysia,” Chua told reporters at a briefing.
“However, we do not see anyone in this industry that has the complete closed-end system that is capable of treating the effluent up to zero discharge.” he said.
He said Ronser Bio-Tech has also entered into an agreement with YTL-SV Carbon Sdn Bhd to assist Ronser Bio-Tech’s clients apply for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and help them to market their carbon credits.
The CDM is a scheme under the Kyoto Protocol which helps developing countries achieve sustainable development through the sale of certified emission reduction, or carbon credits, to developed and industrialised countries.
“The estimated cost for a 60-tonne per hour mill system is about RM6mil,” Chua said, referring to palm oil mills.
“Mills of this size generate about 30,000 tonnes of carbon credits a year, so the direct return on investment is in the region RM1.5mil a year.” he added
Meanwhile, Chua said Ronser Bio-Tech has set up 10-year joint venture with China’s Shanghai Jiao Tong University to develop advanced environmental protection technology.
It would spend RM3mil in research and development during that period.
Last month, Ronser purchased a 100% stake in Shanghai-based biotechnology company KangChern Environmental Science & Technology Co Ltd for 45mil renminbi (RM6.6mil).
Currently, Ronser Bio-Tech’s clients in China include China Petrol, China Resources Snow Brewery, Coca-Cola and Pepsico’s operations in China.
CB也会供过于求（如果局势差下去）。
CB可在Chicago Climate Exchange购买，在EBAY都能找到（不懂真不真），你也可以付钱给砍树的人禁止他砍树，或栽种树木，以换取CARBON UNIT。
其中最赚钱的人，是转手商，但注册费是数万美元。
Friday October 24, 2008
By LAW KAI CHOW
DAMANSARA: Ronser Bio-Tech Sdn Bhd, a newly set up industrial waste treatment company, will focus on palm oil mills in Malaysia to drive growth.
Company advisor Chua Peng Len said the company was targeting palm oil mills, as the potential was good because Malaysia palm oil mills were still using the old system for waste treatment.
“The palm oil mill market is large in Malaysia, as there are about 400 palm oil mills in Malaysia,” Chua told reporters at a briefing.
“However, we do not see anyone in this industry that has the complete closed-end system that is capable of treating the effluent up to zero discharge.” he said.
He said Ronser Bio-Tech has also entered into an agreement with YTL-SV Carbon Sdn Bhd to assist Ronser Bio-Tech’s clients apply for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and help them to market their carbon credits.
The CDM is a scheme under the Kyoto Protocol which helps developing countries achieve sustainable development through the sale of certified emission reduction, or carbon credits, to developed and industrialised countries.
“The estimated cost for a 60-tonne per hour mill system is about RM6mil,” Chua said, referring to palm oil mills.
“Mills of this size generate about 30,000 tonnes of carbon credits a year, so the direct return on investment is in the region RM1.5mil a year.” he added
Meanwhile, Chua said Ronser Bio-Tech has set up 10-year joint venture with China’s Shanghai Jiao Tong University to develop advanced environmental protection technology.
It would spend RM3mil in research and development during that period.
Last month, Ronser purchased a 100% stake in Shanghai-based biotechnology company KangChern Environmental Science & Technology Co Ltd for 45mil renminbi (RM6.6mil).
Currently, Ronser Bio-Tech’s clients in China include China Petrol, China Resources Snow Brewery, Coca-Cola and Pepsico’s operations in China.
ioi corporation 开始回购了
续【ioi corporation 可能停止回购了】
ioicorp在22/10/2008,通过了股东所赋予的回购权限,他们在第二天很"积极"的回购了300,000股,花费RM895,362.20
但, 这并不是说他们不能在22/10/2008当天或前段"真空时间"里回购股票.
从种种迹象来看,ioicorp是有胆量当黑脸的,这个时候才是考验人性的时候.
直至现在,还不知道他的兑汇亏损是多少.
ioicorp在22/10/2008,通过了股东所赋予的回购权限,他们在第二天很"积极"的回购了300,000股,花费RM895,362.20
但, 这并不是说他们不能在22/10/2008当天或前段"真空时间"里回购股票.
从种种迹象来看,ioicorp是有胆量当黑脸的,这个时候才是考验人性的时候.
直至现在,还不知道他的兑汇亏损是多少.
Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) Refutes Palm Oil Planters' Claims
Tuesday, October 21, 2008 10:53 PM
(Source: New Straits Times)By Ooi Tee Ching
THE Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) uses only 60 per cent of the cess collected from oil palm planters for its research and development (R&D) enforcement and licensing activities.
It collects cess amounting to RM15 per tonne of palm oil and palm kernel oil produced at mills and crushers in Malaysia. But only RM9 per tonne of palm oil and palm kernel oil is for its own use.
The remaining RM6 per tonne of palm oil and palm kernel oil is for palm oil promotion and price stabilisation.
In a statement issued yesterday, MPOB director general Datuk Dr Mohd Basri Wahid refuted claims by several Sarawak oil palm planters that it was not serving the palm oil sector effectively and failed to carry out its original role as an R&D institution.
He said MPOB collected RM247.24 million from Sarawak oil palm companies, of which 93 per cent or RM230.42 million, was channelled to cooking oil manufacturers under the Cooking Oil Subsidy Scheme. RM16.82 million went to MPOB for its R&D, enforcement and licensing activities.
"MPOB is not a commercial entity. We're not involved in any business ventures nor do we own any subsidiaries that are profit oriented," he said.
Basri said RM2.8 million worth of high yielding oil palm seedlings had been disbursed to smallholders in Sarawak.
MPOB is also collaborating with Universiti Malaysia Sarawak to conduct research on biodiversity and Curtin University Sarawak to harness new technologies in palm oil processing.
(c) 2008 New Straits Times. Provided by ProQuest LLC. All rights Reserved.
A service of YellowBrix, Inc.
(Source: New Straits Times)By Ooi Tee Ching
THE Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) uses only 60 per cent of the cess collected from oil palm planters for its research and development (R&D) enforcement and licensing activities.
It collects cess amounting to RM15 per tonne of palm oil and palm kernel oil produced at mills and crushers in Malaysia. But only RM9 per tonne of palm oil and palm kernel oil is for its own use.
The remaining RM6 per tonne of palm oil and palm kernel oil is for palm oil promotion and price stabilisation.
In a statement issued yesterday, MPOB director general Datuk Dr Mohd Basri Wahid refuted claims by several Sarawak oil palm planters that it was not serving the palm oil sector effectively and failed to carry out its original role as an R&D institution.
He said MPOB collected RM247.24 million from Sarawak oil palm companies, of which 93 per cent or RM230.42 million, was channelled to cooking oil manufacturers under the Cooking Oil Subsidy Scheme. RM16.82 million went to MPOB for its R&D, enforcement and licensing activities.
"MPOB is not a commercial entity. We're not involved in any business ventures nor do we own any subsidiaries that are profit oriented," he said.
Basri said RM2.8 million worth of high yielding oil palm seedlings had been disbursed to smallholders in Sarawak.
MPOB is also collaborating with Universiti Malaysia Sarawak to conduct research on biodiversity and Curtin University Sarawak to harness new technologies in palm oil processing.
(c) 2008 New Straits Times. Provided by ProQuest LLC. All rights Reserved.
A service of YellowBrix, Inc.
Higher costs hurting some small palm oil planters
October 22，2008
Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my
PETALING JAYA: The sharp drop in crude palm oil (CPO) prices, rising cost of raw materials and burdensome taxes have resulted in the cost of production (COP) escalating among local plantation players, hurting smaller and newer plantation companies, especially those from Sarawak.
Planters claim that the current COP had surged, on average, RM1,200 to RM1,700 per tonne now.
The COP of more efficient planters jumped at least 50% to RM1,200 per tonne currently from RM600 to RM650 in the past five years.
The COP at the less efficient planters, as well as new planters, which meant younger palm trees with lower yields, shot up 87.5% to above RM1,500 per tonne from RM800 earlier.
“Just imagine with a COP above RM1,500 at the current CPO price of RM1,600 to RM1,700 per tonne, many medium to small-time planters will be facing difficulties in making (decent) margins,” said Malaysian Estate Owners’ Association president Boon Weng Siew.
Analysts have estimated that the COP among Sarawak oil palm players would be the highest nationwide at RM1,700 to RM2,000 per tonne.
“At current CPO price of RM1,700, how are Sarawak players going to break even or service their high borrowings at the banks and pay the windfall tax?” Boon asked.
He said the COP situation has changed dramatically, especially the price of fertilisers.
The price of fertilizers had gone up by almost three folds to RM4,000 per tonne from RM1,300 to RM1,400 per tonne over the past three years.
The COP of efficient planters like IOI Corp Bhd and United Plantations Bhd is estimated to be in the range of RM1,100 to RM1,200 per tonne “at best,” according to Boon.
Analysts have projected the two companies’ yield at 25 to 28 tonnes per ha per year, which was higher than the national industry average of 20 tonnes.
Plantation giant Sime Darby Bhd is said to have an average COP of about RM1,100 per tonne.
Plantation analysts projected the COP for medium-sized planters like IJM Plantations Bhd, Tradewinds Plantation Bhd and Asiatic Development Bhd at RM1,300 to RM1,500 per tonne.
Of late, many oil palm planters nationwide are struggling to keep their escalating COP at bay while grappling with the current decline in crude palm oil (CPO) prices.
They also have to contend with taxes deemed unfair such as the windfall tax and the cess imposed by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), as well as the high cost of fertilizers, chemicals and fuels.
The CPO price trend in November and December would be critical to determine the actual margin erosion among local plantation companies, an analyst with a bank-backed brokerage said.
But he noted that the average CPO price at RM3,000 per tonne so far this year was still higher than the 2007 average at RM2,600 per tonne.
“I strongly believe that major oil palm plantation companies can still make good profits for 2008, given the higher CPO average this year and many have locked in their CPO selling price at RM3,000 per tonne in the previous months,” the analyst said.
Boon said many Sarawak-based oil palm plantation players, as new entrants with poor FFB yields, would be hit harder this year, given the bearish CPO price, high COP and the various taxes imposed on them such as the windfall tax.
Last week, seven major Sarawak oil palm companies appealed to the Government to waive the windfall tax or raise the CPO threshold price to RM3,000 per tonne from RM2,000 for calculating the windfall tax.
The Government has imposed a windfall tax on CPO sales at above RM2,000 per tonne, with a 15% tax applicable to plantations in mainland Malaysia, and a 7.5% tax for those in east Malaysia.
Ta Ann Holdings Bhd, a giant timber group with heavy investments in oil palm plantations, is worried.
Managing director Datuk Wong Kuo Hea said: “Seasoned Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah planters have enough hectarage of profitable harvesting area to be financially self dependent.
“Sarawak, as a late entrant, has the lowest area planted with only 20% that can contribute to profit. We are also not financially self-sufficient in our operation and still require huge injection of funds into our new plantations.”
Analysts have projected that many Sarawak planters would continue to make losses from the first to fifth year of harvesting but would start to make profit only in year six if the CPO price was at RM1,700 per tonne.
Top listed Sarawak-based planters include Ta Ann, Sarawak Plantations Bhd, Rimbunan Sawit Bhd, Sarawak Oil Palm Bhd and WTK Holdings Bhd.
Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my
PETALING JAYA: The sharp drop in crude palm oil (CPO) prices, rising cost of raw materials and burdensome taxes have resulted in the cost of production (COP) escalating among local plantation players, hurting smaller and newer plantation companies, especially those from Sarawak.
Planters claim that the current COP had surged, on average, RM1,200 to RM1,700 per tonne now.
The COP of more efficient planters jumped at least 50% to RM1,200 per tonne currently from RM600 to RM650 in the past five years.
The COP at the less efficient planters, as well as new planters, which meant younger palm trees with lower yields, shot up 87.5% to above RM1,500 per tonne from RM800 earlier.
“Just imagine with a COP above RM1,500 at the current CPO price of RM1,600 to RM1,700 per tonne, many medium to small-time planters will be facing difficulties in making (decent) margins,” said Malaysian Estate Owners’ Association president Boon Weng Siew.
Analysts have estimated that the COP among Sarawak oil palm players would be the highest nationwide at RM1,700 to RM2,000 per tonne.
“At current CPO price of RM1,700, how are Sarawak players going to break even or service their high borrowings at the banks and pay the windfall tax?” Boon asked.
He said the COP situation has changed dramatically, especially the price of fertilisers.
The price of fertilizers had gone up by almost three folds to RM4,000 per tonne from RM1,300 to RM1,400 per tonne over the past three years.
The COP of efficient planters like IOI Corp Bhd and United Plantations Bhd is estimated to be in the range of RM1,100 to RM1,200 per tonne “at best,” according to Boon.
Analysts have projected the two companies’ yield at 25 to 28 tonnes per ha per year, which was higher than the national industry average of 20 tonnes.
Plantation giant Sime Darby Bhd is said to have an average COP of about RM1,100 per tonne.
Plantation analysts projected the COP for medium-sized planters like IJM Plantations Bhd, Tradewinds Plantation Bhd and Asiatic Development Bhd at RM1,300 to RM1,500 per tonne.
Of late, many oil palm planters nationwide are struggling to keep their escalating COP at bay while grappling with the current decline in crude palm oil (CPO) prices.
They also have to contend with taxes deemed unfair such as the windfall tax and the cess imposed by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), as well as the high cost of fertilizers, chemicals and fuels.
The CPO price trend in November and December would be critical to determine the actual margin erosion among local plantation companies, an analyst with a bank-backed brokerage said.
But he noted that the average CPO price at RM3,000 per tonne so far this year was still higher than the 2007 average at RM2,600 per tonne.
“I strongly believe that major oil palm plantation companies can still make good profits for 2008, given the higher CPO average this year and many have locked in their CPO selling price at RM3,000 per tonne in the previous months,” the analyst said.
Boon said many Sarawak-based oil palm plantation players, as new entrants with poor FFB yields, would be hit harder this year, given the bearish CPO price, high COP and the various taxes imposed on them such as the windfall tax.
Last week, seven major Sarawak oil palm companies appealed to the Government to waive the windfall tax or raise the CPO threshold price to RM3,000 per tonne from RM2,000 for calculating the windfall tax.
The Government has imposed a windfall tax on CPO sales at above RM2,000 per tonne, with a 15% tax applicable to plantations in mainland Malaysia, and a 7.5% tax for those in east Malaysia.
Ta Ann Holdings Bhd, a giant timber group with heavy investments in oil palm plantations, is worried.
Managing director Datuk Wong Kuo Hea said: “Seasoned Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah planters have enough hectarage of profitable harvesting area to be financially self dependent.
“Sarawak, as a late entrant, has the lowest area planted with only 20% that can contribute to profit. We are also not financially self-sufficient in our operation and still require huge injection of funds into our new plantations.”
Analysts have projected that many Sarawak planters would continue to make losses from the first to fifth year of harvesting but would start to make profit only in year six if the CPO price was at RM1,700 per tonne.
Top listed Sarawak-based planters include Ta Ann, Sarawak Plantations Bhd, Rimbunan Sawit Bhd, Sarawak Oil Palm Bhd and WTK Holdings Bhd.
23-10-2008:- Indonesia may cut palm base price for November
根据印尼报纸Kompas透露，NOVEMBER 2008的CPO出口税很可能下降到2.5%
这对东马来说是分外眼红的，这是由于他们还需要缴付5-7.5%的州税收，和MPOB的研究费用。
东西马已不必再付暴利税。
最近政府说他们取消暴利税，是和你玩玩的，这是因为CPO早就跌破RM2000，不必给了，还要他们讲？
如果种植业者想寻求突破，不妨考虑以有机肥和微生物肥为主，化肥为铺。蚯蚓粪，潜力是不错的，只是不懂价钱而已。
from theedgedaily
JAKARTA: Indonesia, the world’s biggest producer of palm oil, plans to cut the November base price used to calculate the export tax in a bid to boost shipments of the commodity, Trade Minister Mari Pangestu said.
Palm oil producers have asked the government to cut the base price to below the average global price for the past month, she said in an interview in Jakarta late Tuesday. Indonesia reviews the palm oil export tax and its base price monthly.
Producers “are asking us to lower it even further” because world prices are falling while their costs have risen, she said. Lowering the base price will encourage exports by reducing the amount of tax on shipments, she said. — Bloomberg
这对东马来说是分外眼红的，这是由于他们还需要缴付5-7.5%的州税收，和MPOB的研究费用。
东西马已不必再付暴利税。
最近政府说他们取消暴利税，是和你玩玩的，这是因为CPO早就跌破RM2000，不必给了，还要他们讲？
如果种植业者想寻求突破，不妨考虑以有机肥和微生物肥为主，化肥为铺。蚯蚓粪，潜力是不错的，只是不懂价钱而已。
from theedgedaily
JAKARTA: Indonesia, the world’s biggest producer of palm oil, plans to cut the November base price used to calculate the export tax in a bid to boost shipments of the commodity, Trade Minister Mari Pangestu said.
Palm oil producers have asked the government to cut the base price to below the average global price for the past month, she said in an interview in Jakarta late Tuesday. Indonesia reviews the palm oil export tax and its base price monthly.
Producers “are asking us to lower it even further” because world prices are falling while their costs have risen, she said. Lowering the base price will encourage exports by reducing the amount of tax on shipments, she said. — Bloomberg
18 October 2008
投资者应该避开一些种植股，尤其是东马。
CPO高涨的时候，我们看不到有什么公司是不好的，因为全都赚钱了。这虚假荣景很快的就会破灭。我列出一些例子，但不具名是什么公司（他是东马普遍现象，西马较少见）。
1.软土经营
这几年不少软地被开垦成油棕园，那些已收割的园地打击不会太大，但刚刚开辟的就不能收回了，软地的好处是便宜，坏处是油棕寿命短，产量不理想。如今格局已变，软地经营不再是包赚的。
行情大好时，我们无视环保课题，陪他们一起疯，但行情不好时，这些股票是不能抱的。
2.以RM1000-RM2000每公顷买入的native land
这些土地来路不明，cpo RM2200以上时，你可以陪他们疯，但现在是他们痛宰你的时候，你还不跑？不是能不能breakeven的问题，而是考验人性的时候。
3.油棕年老化
老树耗肥，量少。
以前30岁有赚，现在就该砍了。
1.软土经营
这几年不少软地被开垦成油棕园，那些已收割的园地打击不会太大，但刚刚开辟的就不能收回了，软地的好处是便宜，坏处是油棕寿命短，产量不理想。如今格局已变，软地经营不再是包赚的。
行情大好时，我们无视环保课题，陪他们一起疯，但行情不好时，这些股票是不能抱的。
2.以RM1000-RM2000每公顷买入的native land
这些土地来路不明，cpo RM2200以上时，你可以陪他们疯，但现在是他们痛宰你的时候，你还不跑？不是能不能breakeven的问题，而是考验人性的时候。
3.油棕年老化
老树耗肥，量少。
以前30岁有赚，现在就该砍了。
15 October 2008
化肥市场概述(不时整理中)
陆陆续续收集了有关化肥的资料，但是没时间整理出一套完整的系统，如果要求这么严格，那么永远都不能写blog了，因此，只好从简了。
以下资料来源太广，因此不注明出处，其中不少自己的描述，不排除有错处。
氮肥
氮肥的全球供应来源分布很广，这是因为氮是构成自然界的重要元素，虽然氮随处可见(空气中)，但是植物并不能吸收**，城市化的影响，土壤氮流失很快，因此工业生产氮肥的需求是迫切的。
**除了少数具有固氮作用(Nitrogen fixation)的农作物。
在所有氮肥产品中，尿素（UREA，CO(NH2)2）是氮含量（46%）最高的化肥，因此尿素的市场价格主导了氮肥市场。
被利用在工业炸药的硝酸铵含氮元素为35%（简称硝铵，NH4NO3），也是主要的氮肥，他和尿素价格有同步系数。
氨（NH3，阿摩尼亚），形态多变，溶于水的氨是氨水（铵，NH4+），低温处理的氨是液氨（液态，无水氨），无论他怎么复杂，总括一句就是他是氮肥原料。阿摩尼亚和二氧化碳在加热情况下可生产出尿素，值得一提的是，尿素的生产成本的50%-70%来自能源，不管是用电力，天然气，或煤炭，这些热能成本是的不能避免的。因此，氮肥的价格是和原油同步的，但是原油暴跌并不会马上影响氮肥走势，这是因为商家避免亏损。
以马化学（ccm）为例，马化学的阿摩尼亚是从印尼进口的。
较普遍期货代号
UREA,46%nitrogen
UAN,32%nitrogen
UREA价格可参考印度Yuzhnyy和Baltic港口价格
2008-oct-16记录
2008-oct-9, urea weekly价格是 520美元/mt，这与7.8.9月价格位于760.770.706，是严重下跌的。这个10月是多事之秋，从事氮肥生产的Terra Industries Inc股价也是无法幸免，不到一个月时间股价从44美元掉到了19美元。
2008-oct-16, urea weekly价格是 345美元，进一步急剧下滑。
UREA价格随着油价锐减了一半，可以预见，零售商为了避免亏损不愿减低售价，购买者等待更便宜的价格买入。这些问题本可以在期货市场得到解决，但期货市场并不活络。 （石油期货是另一途径）。 如果种植者lock了太多或太久的UREA，可说是输家。
磷肥
磷肥主要分成两类，一类是天然的鸟粪和动物骨骼。一类是化学磷肥。
中国是磷肥产量第一的国家，其次是美国。
2007年是中国磷肥市场重要的一年，该年成为净出口国，
最早的磷肥是过磷酸钙，现已逐渐被磷酸铵（氮磷复合肥，分成一铵，二铵，三铵）和重过磷酸钙（TSP)等高浓度磷肥取代。
磷肥期货种类为TSP和DAP（磷酸二铵，复合肥）。
磷肥的原料是磷矿。
有85％以上的磷矿用于磷肥生产。磷矿的品位按P2O5含量(％）表示，通常为29～38；近年来世界商品磷矿的平均品位为32.5～32.7。美国和其他一些国家，磷矿的品位以磷酸三钙〔Ca3(PO4)2〕的含量表示。磷矿的质量以品位和所含杂质矿物的种类、数量来进行评价。杂质含量以氧化铁、氧化铝、氧化镁、氟、氯、氧化钠、氧化钾、二氧化磷、三氧化硫、二氧化硅、有机物等的百分含量表示。磷矿的用途不同，对其质量要求也不一致（见磷肥、磷酸、过磷酸钙等）。
世界磷矿分布很广，储量约为130Gt（1Gt=10亿吨）。中国磷矿储量在10Gt以上，主要分布在云南、贵州、四川、湖北和湖南五省。1981年世界磷矿产量为138Mt(实物)，生产国有30多个，主要是美国、苏联和摩洛哥，约占总产量的79％，中国近年来的磷矿产量约为10Mt（折算成30％P2O5）。
国际上通常将磷矿中的P2O5含量大于30％称为富矿，P2O5含量小于12％称为贫矿。
人类社会的生存和发展离不开磷，因为农业生产需要大量的磷肥。可是，现已探明的磷储量仅够人类使用不足100年，我国(中国）磷矿的开采只有70年！更让人担忧的是，磷资源不仅十分有限，而且单向流动、不可再生。当人类跨入21世纪门槛时，不得不面对正在发生的磷危机，这绝非耸人听闻。
组分和结构
磷矿物按其成矿起源可分为沉积岩、变质岩和火成岩。目前，工业开采的约85％是海相沉积磷矿，其余主要为火成岩磷矿。鸟粪层磷矿是鸟粪的直接或间接的堆积物矿化而成，储量不大，但目前在世界磷矿年产量中约占2％，火成岩或变质岩磷矿品位一般比较低，但可选性好，通过浮选，可得到品位很高的精矿。目前工业开采的苏联科拉磷矿，南非帕拉博瓦磷矿，巴西雅库皮兰加磷矿，中国锦屏磷矿（见彩图）和黄麦岭磷矿等都属于火成岩磷矿，其产量约占总产量的16％。海相沉积磷矿的品位高低不一，可选性差别也很大，目前工业开采的是地理位置好、交通运输方便、采矿和富集费用比较低的那部分资源。美国佛罗里达磷矿和摩洛哥磷矿是世界著名的磷矿生产基地，中国云南滇池磷矿、贵州开阳磷矿和湖北荆襄磷矿都属于海相沉积磷矿，也有相当大的生产规模。
磷肥最普遍的期货代号是TSP， Phosphate rock 和DAP，DAP是复合肥因此不在这里说明。
TSP 的含量（折纯）是46%的P。
钾肥
世界钾盐资源极为丰富，但资源分布极不均衡，加拿大、俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、德国的合计储量和基础储量分别占世界总量的92%和81%，这几个国家主导了世界钾肥市场。加拿大钾肥（PotashCorp）公司拥有全球剩余产能的72%，这些寡头有自己的一套不为人知的库存机制，因此钾肥的价格是很独立的。
除了上述国家，其他生产钾肥的地区来自死海和中国盐湖。
钾肥的代表物是氯化钾（Potassium chloride，Muriate of Potash，KCI）。
CCM进口钾肥 from jordan（约旦）,Germany and Russia。
HAPSENG进口钾肥 from CANADA.
氯化钾价格可参考温哥华港口价格。
2008-oct-17记录
十月上旬和中旬，国际氯化钾价格上涨。
【2008-aug-19 edit】
全球最大的钾肥公司potash corp， 股价在这段商品热中涨了16倍，今次的危机让他的股价在几个月内缩水了70%(240 to 74计），但还是高位（相比2004年的12元）。
这公司的现金流不成问题，比较关注的是他们是否滥用了股票回购，不顾短期债务的压迫。
全世界的钾肥有70%控制在他们手上，因此他们的一举一动是令人关注的，如果连玉米，黄豆都不能达到盈利，那么potash必会向现实妥协，降低售价。
【end of 2008-aug-19 edit】
复合肥
DAP， diammonium phosphate， (NH4)2HPO4。
磷酸二铵又称磷酸氢二铵（DAP），是含氮磷两种营养成分的复合肥。
磷酸一铵，二铵，三铵，是同性质的。
一般上生产一吨DAP需要约0.45吨硫磺和约2.2吨磷矿石，另加阿摩尼亚。
硫磺在DAP成本中占比已达6成。
DAP的标准含量是18%nitrogen和46%phosphate，不过不是绝对值，各地规格不一。
DAP价格比TSP稍贵15-30%，这是因为DAP和TSP的制作非常接近。
制作DAP复合肥最需考虑的问题是供应和原料成本，上述的原料缺一不可，硫磺和阿摩尼亚常常出现在磷矿产地的港口，价格差异也不同。
TSP的生产问题不比DAP少。
硫磺来自硫铁矿，也来自石油和天然气。
DAP价格可参考美国坦帕港口价格。
2008-10-17记录
2008-10-16的DAP价格是970美元，这也是说，DAP价格自7月份的1185美元，下跌了19%
MAP,
11% nitrogen和52% phosphate ，为标准规格。
虽然MAP在生产成本、制作过程、运输成本、库存成本都比DAP占优，但他的参考价值和市场份额没有DAP明显。
补充
中国对肥料出口征收超过100%的税收，如果在年尾“重新检讨”，势必让肥料市场重新洗牌，但相信改变不会太大。
中国氮磷刚好处于自给自足的水平，世界磷生产集中在北美。
中国需入口硫磺以达到复合肥的平衡。
南亚是尿素生产集中地。
“P”是以P2O5计量，上述P折纯量皆是P2O5。
油棕
报告常常不具名肥料的“实物”和“折纯”，也没有透露NPK的折纯用量，因此我们看不懂分析员讲什么。
举个例子，分析员说IOI的施肥成本是RM1200每亩(行业总平均RM1600)，也就是一棵树每年需花费RM20, 这相等于每公斤肥料价格是RM2.5
这只是一个总值，没有细分清楚，因此我们没有办法分析。
如果是15-15-15，把NPK折纯量拆解，答案可能接近。
【2008-aug-18 edit】
也就是根据1)尿素氮折纯量2)氯化钾钾折纯量3）TSP的P2O5折纯量，进行计算,从中找出目前的施肥成本，如果跟进分析报导，是不明确的。
如果肥料继续挤压FFB售价，那么没有谈判能力的小园主必将面对亏损，这比一两年前的情况更糟，因为成本是回不到过去的。
这回的经济洗牌不只要洗金融，恐怕连油棕都要洗净。两国的农业.原产部长无能，没有落实方案，大不了我们也搞个生柴战略储备，至少可以把危机压个十年。
【end of 2008-aug-18 edit】
以下资料来源太广，因此不注明出处，其中不少自己的描述，不排除有错处。
氮肥
氮肥的全球供应来源分布很广，这是因为氮是构成自然界的重要元素，虽然氮随处可见(空气中)，但是植物并不能吸收**，城市化的影响，土壤氮流失很快，因此工业生产氮肥的需求是迫切的。
**除了少数具有固氮作用(Nitrogen fixation)的农作物。
在所有氮肥产品中，尿素（UREA，CO(NH2)2）是氮含量（46%）最高的化肥，因此尿素的市场价格主导了氮肥市场。
被利用在工业炸药的硝酸铵含氮元素为35%（简称硝铵，NH4NO3），也是主要的氮肥，他和尿素价格有同步系数。
氨（NH3，阿摩尼亚），形态多变，溶于水的氨是氨水（铵，NH4+），低温处理的氨是液氨（液态，无水氨），无论他怎么复杂，总括一句就是他是氮肥原料。阿摩尼亚和二氧化碳在加热情况下可生产出尿素，值得一提的是，尿素的生产成本的50%-70%来自能源，不管是用电力，天然气，或煤炭，这些热能成本是的不能避免的。因此，氮肥的价格是和原油同步的，但是原油暴跌并不会马上影响氮肥走势，这是因为商家避免亏损。
以马化学（ccm）为例，马化学的阿摩尼亚是从印尼进口的。
较普遍期货代号
UREA,46%nitrogen
UAN,32%nitrogen
UREA价格可参考印度Yuzhnyy和Baltic港口价格
2008-oct-16记录
2008-oct-9, urea weekly价格是 520美元/mt，这与7.8.9月价格位于760.770.706，是严重下跌的。这个10月是多事之秋，从事氮肥生产的Terra Industries Inc股价也是无法幸免，不到一个月时间股价从44美元掉到了19美元。
2008-oct-16, urea weekly价格是 345美元，进一步急剧下滑。
UREA价格随着油价锐减了一半，可以预见，零售商为了避免亏损不愿减低售价，购买者等待更便宜的价格买入。这些问题本可以在期货市场得到解决，但期货市场并不活络。 （石油期货是另一途径）。 如果种植者lock了太多或太久的UREA，可说是输家。
磷肥
磷肥主要分成两类，一类是天然的鸟粪和动物骨骼。一类是化学磷肥。
中国是磷肥产量第一的国家，其次是美国。
2007年是中国磷肥市场重要的一年，该年成为净出口国，
最早的磷肥是过磷酸钙，现已逐渐被磷酸铵（氮磷复合肥，分成一铵，二铵，三铵）和重过磷酸钙（TSP)等高浓度磷肥取代。
磷肥期货种类为TSP和DAP（磷酸二铵，复合肥）。
磷肥的原料是磷矿。
有85％以上的磷矿用于磷肥生产。磷矿的品位按P2O5含量(％）表示，通常为29～38；近年来世界商品磷矿的平均品位为32.5～32.7。美国和其他一些国家，磷矿的品位以磷酸三钙〔Ca3(PO4)2〕的含量表示。磷矿的质量以品位和所含杂质矿物的种类、数量来进行评价。杂质含量以氧化铁、氧化铝、氧化镁、氟、氯、氧化钠、氧化钾、二氧化磷、三氧化硫、二氧化硅、有机物等的百分含量表示。磷矿的用途不同，对其质量要求也不一致（见磷肥、磷酸、过磷酸钙等）。
世界磷矿分布很广，储量约为130Gt（1Gt=10亿吨）。中国磷矿储量在10Gt以上，主要分布在云南、贵州、四川、湖北和湖南五省。1981年世界磷矿产量为138Mt(实物)，生产国有30多个，主要是美国、苏联和摩洛哥，约占总产量的79％，中国近年来的磷矿产量约为10Mt（折算成30％P2O5）。
国际上通常将磷矿中的P2O5含量大于30％称为富矿，P2O5含量小于12％称为贫矿。
人类社会的生存和发展离不开磷，因为农业生产需要大量的磷肥。可是，现已探明的磷储量仅够人类使用不足100年，我国(中国）磷矿的开采只有70年！更让人担忧的是，磷资源不仅十分有限，而且单向流动、不可再生。当人类跨入21世纪门槛时，不得不面对正在发生的磷危机，这绝非耸人听闻。
组分和结构
磷矿物按其成矿起源可分为沉积岩、变质岩和火成岩。目前，工业开采的约85％是海相沉积磷矿，其余主要为火成岩磷矿。鸟粪层磷矿是鸟粪的直接或间接的堆积物矿化而成，储量不大，但目前在世界磷矿年产量中约占2％，火成岩或变质岩磷矿品位一般比较低，但可选性好，通过浮选，可得到品位很高的精矿。目前工业开采的苏联科拉磷矿，南非帕拉博瓦磷矿，巴西雅库皮兰加磷矿，中国锦屏磷矿（见彩图）和黄麦岭磷矿等都属于火成岩磷矿，其产量约占总产量的16％。海相沉积磷矿的品位高低不一，可选性差别也很大，目前工业开采的是地理位置好、交通运输方便、采矿和富集费用比较低的那部分资源。美国佛罗里达磷矿和摩洛哥磷矿是世界著名的磷矿生产基地，中国云南滇池磷矿、贵州开阳磷矿和湖北荆襄磷矿都属于海相沉积磷矿，也有相当大的生产规模。
磷肥最普遍的期货代号是TSP， Phosphate rock 和DAP，DAP是复合肥因此不在这里说明。
TSP 的含量（折纯）是46%的P。
钾肥
世界钾盐资源极为丰富，但资源分布极不均衡，加拿大、俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、德国的合计储量和基础储量分别占世界总量的92%和81%，这几个国家主导了世界钾肥市场。加拿大钾肥（PotashCorp）公司拥有全球剩余产能的72%，这些寡头有自己的一套不为人知的库存机制，因此钾肥的价格是很独立的。
除了上述国家，其他生产钾肥的地区来自死海和中国盐湖。
钾肥的代表物是氯化钾（Potassium chloride，Muriate of Potash，KCI）。
CCM进口钾肥 from jordan（约旦）,Germany and Russia。
HAPSENG进口钾肥 from CANADA.
氯化钾价格可参考温哥华港口价格。
2008-oct-17记录
十月上旬和中旬，国际氯化钾价格上涨。
【2008-aug-19 edit】
全球最大的钾肥公司potash corp， 股价在这段商品热中涨了16倍，今次的危机让他的股价在几个月内缩水了70%(240 to 74计），但还是高位（相比2004年的12元）。
这公司的现金流不成问题，比较关注的是他们是否滥用了股票回购，不顾短期债务的压迫。
全世界的钾肥有70%控制在他们手上，因此他们的一举一动是令人关注的，如果连玉米，黄豆都不能达到盈利，那么potash必会向现实妥协，降低售价。
【end of 2008-aug-19 edit】
复合肥
DAP， diammonium phosphate， (NH4)2HPO4。
磷酸二铵又称磷酸氢二铵（DAP），是含氮磷两种营养成分的复合肥。
磷酸一铵，二铵，三铵，是同性质的。
一般上生产一吨DAP需要约0.45吨硫磺和约2.2吨磷矿石，另加阿摩尼亚。
硫磺在DAP成本中占比已达6成。
DAP的标准含量是18%nitrogen和46%phosphate，不过不是绝对值，各地规格不一。
DAP价格比TSP稍贵15-30%，这是因为DAP和TSP的制作非常接近。
制作DAP复合肥最需考虑的问题是供应和原料成本，上述的原料缺一不可，硫磺和阿摩尼亚常常出现在磷矿产地的港口，价格差异也不同。
TSP的生产问题不比DAP少。
硫磺来自硫铁矿，也来自石油和天然气。
DAP价格可参考美国坦帕港口价格。
2008-10-17记录
2008-10-16的DAP价格是970美元，这也是说，DAP价格自7月份的1185美元，下跌了19%
MAP,
11% nitrogen和52% phosphate ，为标准规格。
虽然MAP在生产成本、制作过程、运输成本、库存成本都比DAP占优，但他的参考价值和市场份额没有DAP明显。
补充
中国对肥料出口征收超过100%的税收，如果在年尾“重新检讨”，势必让肥料市场重新洗牌，但相信改变不会太大。
中国氮磷刚好处于自给自足的水平，世界磷生产集中在北美。
中国需入口硫磺以达到复合肥的平衡。
南亚是尿素生产集中地。
“P”是以P2O5计量，上述P折纯量皆是P2O5。
油棕
报告常常不具名肥料的“实物”和“折纯”，也没有透露NPK的折纯用量，因此我们看不懂分析员讲什么。
举个例子，分析员说IOI的施肥成本是RM1200每亩(行业总平均RM1600)，也就是一棵树每年需花费RM20, 这相等于每公斤肥料价格是RM2.5
这只是一个总值，没有细分清楚，因此我们没有办法分析。
如果是15-15-15，把NPK折纯量拆解，答案可能接近。
【2008-aug-18 edit】
也就是根据1)尿素氮折纯量2)氯化钾钾折纯量3）TSP的P2O5折纯量，进行计算,从中找出目前的施肥成本，如果跟进分析报导，是不明确的。
如果肥料继续挤压FFB售价，那么没有谈判能力的小园主必将面对亏损，这比一两年前的情况更糟，因为成本是回不到过去的。
这回的经济洗牌不只要洗金融，恐怕连油棕都要洗净。两国的农业.原产部长无能，没有落实方案，大不了我们也搞个生柴战略储备，至少可以把危机压个十年。
【end of 2008-aug-18 edit】
13 October 2008
油棕园饲养动物
不少的东马棕油园都有在饲养牛羊，种植黄梨和水果。
这不只是创造了盈利，同时也创造了生物链。
牛羊提供有机肥(粪便)，棕果仁可当饲料，野草被吃可省去除草剂的开销。
除此以外果树可以帮助招引蜜蜂成居，这对油棕的结果过程中很有补助作用。
但环保份子很可能会吹毛求疵的，因为牛羊也是造成温室效应的祸源，而且，牛羊和油棕配搭能不能完成一个生物循环还是个未知。但这总该比化肥和除草剂的潜在破坏力轻微吧？我不知道。
**生物循环和生物链是不同的。
写blog要顾到各界的观感，真不够意思。国际环保组织对我来说，是寡头用来压制东方的刑具，无疑是＂你被利用了＂的傀儡，RSPO就是一个例子。自己不长进也该负起责任。
根据有关当局提供的现金流示例，400公顷可以饲养100头牛，死亡率为15%。
初始资金是RM175000，往后的10年日常开销是RM320000，其中费用最高的是人工，你要聘请两个人，每个人每个月薪金是700-1150递增。
牛肉和牛只收入RM630000.
除草剂省下费用RM160000。
假设初始资金不是来自借贷，无利息负担的情况，10年的时间不考虑NPV，可以得到RM295000的利益。
这笔数目对plantation来说是微不足道的，但如果是大型计划就不能小觑了。
这不只是创造了盈利，同时也创造了生物链。
牛羊提供有机肥(粪便)，棕果仁可当饲料，野草被吃可省去除草剂的开销。
除此以外果树可以帮助招引蜜蜂成居，这对油棕的结果过程中很有补助作用。
但环保份子很可能会吹毛求疵的，因为牛羊也是造成温室效应的祸源，而且，牛羊和油棕配搭能不能完成一个生物循环还是个未知。但这总该比化肥和除草剂的潜在破坏力轻微吧？我不知道。
**生物循环和生物链是不同的。
写blog要顾到各界的观感，真不够意思。国际环保组织对我来说，是寡头用来压制东方的刑具，无疑是＂你被利用了＂的傀儡，RSPO就是一个例子。自己不长进也该负起责任。
根据有关当局提供的现金流示例，400公顷可以饲养100头牛，死亡率为15%。
初始资金是RM175000，往后的10年日常开销是RM320000，其中费用最高的是人工，你要聘请两个人，每个人每个月薪金是700-1150递增。
牛肉和牛只收入RM630000.
除草剂省下费用RM160000。
假设初始资金不是来自借贷，无利息负担的情况，10年的时间不考虑NPV，可以得到RM295000的利益。
这笔数目对plantation来说是微不足道的，但如果是大型计划就不能小觑了。
10 October 2008
mpob statistic
| export weight metric ton | export value RM million | production metric ton | stock level metric ton | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07JAN | 960348 | 1814.19 | 1115340 | 1474573 |
| FEB | 812409 | 1561.84 | 989681 | 1494377 |
| MAR | 1058033 | 2082.33 | 1081230 | 1337509 |
| APR | 1122963 | 2303.67 | 1125726 | 1190029 |
| MAY | 1156439 | 2582.96 | 1201255 | 1117603 |
| JUN | 948012 | 2264.48 | 1166184 | 1200010 |
| JULY | 1110846 | 2839.70 | 1356956 | 1307332 |
| AUG | 1241257 | 3264.92 | 1559362 | 1452097 |
| SEP | 1395025 | 3673.19 | 1602065 | 1461530 |
| OCT | 1335010 | 3477.25 | 1579809 | 1558325 |
| NOV | 1241449 | 3409.41 | 1650004 | 1810535 |
| DEC | 1365031 | 3912.78 | 1396134 | 1682267 |
| total | 13746822 | 33186.72 | 15823746 | |
| 08JAN | 1040983 | 3183.85 | 1424244 | 1872780 |
| FEB | 1065151 | 3375.25 | 1227969 | 1927549 |
| MAR | 1244033 | 4281.39 | 1294710 | 1824453 |
| APR | 1259884 | 4546.15 | 1327591 | 1789799 |
| MAY | 1200490 | 4335.46 | 1457878 | 1913360 |
| JUN | 1120654 | 4194.70 | 1468921 | 2033914 |
| JULY | 1403570 | 5243.99 | 1560215 | 1977397 |
| AUG | 1467797 | 5029.01 | 1600214 | 1848788 |
| SEP | 1296746 | 4043.55 | 1579442 | 1951417 |
| OCT | 1335577 | 3526.05 | 1652071 | 2091353 |
| NOV | 1362886 | 3019.94 | 1658416 | 2265754 |
| DEC | 1614720 | 3238.25 | 1482768 | 1994681 |
| total | 15412512 | 65194.28 | 17734439 | |
| 09JAN | 1353726 | 2733.03 | 1330195 | 1829357 |
| FEB | 1257482 | 2606.55 | 1187381 | 1565532 |
| MAR | 1260380 | 2734.29 | 1275736 | 1365615 |
| APR | 1187170 | 2625.41 | 1286059 | 1292692 |
| MAY | 1220513 | 3118.40 | 1395275 | 1371238 |
| JUN | 1279701 | 3346.18 | 1445937 | 1408317 |
| JUL | 1449006 | 3530.51 | 1489609 | 1328440 |
| AUG | 1316466 | 3148.51 | 1494764 | 1415109 |
| SEP | 1312056 | 3203.34 | 1556866 | 1578255 |
| OCT | 1478317 | 3450.7 | 1985055 | 1974462 |
| NOV | 1499851 | 3485.03 | 1595592 | 1934613 |
| DEC | 1209140 | 2846.88 | 1520063 | 2238717 |
| total | 15865529 | 36906.30 | 17562532 | |
| 10JAN | 1461731 | 3651.74 | 1321043 | 2000656 |
| FEB | 1294915 | 3324.96 | 1275822 | 1789194 |
| MAR | 1393999 | 3669.09 | 1387234 | 1654967 |
| APR | 1285467 | 3303.28 | 1306228 | 1622580 |
| MAY | 1362056 | 3520.42 | 1385424 | 1562323 |
| JUN | 1441172 | 3736.54 | 1420062 | 1451434 |
| JUL | 1469768 | 3741.67 | 1518753 | 1405740 |
| JUL | 1469989 | 3741.67 | 1518753 | 1405740 |
| AUG | 1211326 | 3154.19 | 1605662 | 1723262 |
| SEP | 1467705 | 3916.46 | 1562912 | 1708101 |
| export weight metric ton | export value RM million | production metric ton | stock level metric ton |
the figure may vary accordingly on timely amendment by MPOB.
any negligence or omission of my arrangement is at your own peril.
all trueness is subject to MPOB announcement.
Indonesia's 2009 palm oil biodiesel use seen
Posted by Palm Oil HQ
Source: http://news.alibaba.com
Added 1 day 3 hours ago - JAKARTA, Oct 8 - Indonesia may consume 1 million to 1.2 million tonnes of biodiesel using palm oil as feed stock in 2009, following the introduction of a mandatory biofuel policy, a government official said on Wednesday.
The resource-rich nation has been pushing for the use of biofuels to cut the use of costly petroleum products and to help ensure the survival of its fledgling biodiesel industry.
Last month, the government issued a ministerial decree that makes the use of biofuel mandatory from 2009. [ID:nJAK127091]
"That will need crude palm oil supply of about 1.2 to 1.5 million tonnes," Bayu Krisnamurthi, deputy to the chief economic minister, told reporters. He said biodiesel use in 2010 may double the amount consumed in 2009 due to the increase in the mandatory blend.
Krisnamurthi also said the biodiesel use may reduce the portion of the country's palm oil production destined for export, starting from next year.
Indonesia's combined capacity for biofuel using palm oil as a feedstock is 2 million kilolitres per year, but it is running at 20 percent of capacity, data from the national biofuel development team shows.
For biodiesel, the decree states the transport sector must use a blend of 1 percent palm-based biodiesel and 99 percent diesel oil, while industry and power plants must use a blend of 2.5 percent and 0.25 percent palm-based biodiesel respectively.
For bioethanol, the use of a 1-5 percent blend of bioethanol and 99-95 percent of gasoline for transportation will become mandatory in 2009.
Industry will have to use a 5 percent blend of bioethanol -- which is made from cane molasses and cassava feedstock -- and 95 percent gasoline next year, increasing to 7 percent by 2010.
With the introduction of the mandatory policy, biodiesel capacity would rise to 5 million kilolitres a year by 2010, the government said recently, although it could also push up the price of palm oil.
Palm oil futures have tumbled around 40 percent since the start of the year, and have fallen more than half since hitting a record high of 4,486 ringgit a tonne in March.
Indonesia produced 17.18 million tonnes of crude palm oil in 2007, of which 3.8 million tonnes was used in the domestic market, mostly for food. Production this year is expected to rise to 18.6 million tonnes.
The grain and oilseed-based biofuel sector has come under attack from green groups for accelerating the destruction of forests, while some analysts blame it for contributing to soaring world food prices by diverting crops that could be used for food, but biofuel industry officials deny this.
Indonesia biofuel policy to reduce palm oil exports
Posted by Palm Oil HQ
Source: http://www.business-standard.com
Added 1 day 10 hours ago
Exports of palm oil from Indonesia, the largest producer, may decline by as much as 1.5 million metric tonnes a year after the nation made the use of renewable energy mandatory, a government official said.
“In relation to the mandatory policy for bio-energy issued last month, we see that the use of agricultural products for alternative energy will increase,” Bayu Krisnamurthi, a deputy to Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Boediono, said on Wednesday in Jakarta. “This will cut our exports” of palm oil.
A fall in supplies from Indonesia, the top producer of the tropical oil, may help support prices that slumped to a two-year low this week on concern slowing global economic growth will dent demand for commodities.
The mandate is “positive for the week” for palm oil prices, said Tan Ting Min, a plantation analyst at Credit Suisse Group in Kuala Lumpur.
Indonesia said September 26 diesel used for transportation must have minimum 1 per cent biodiesel starting this month. The mix was set at 2.5 per cent for industrial users. The nation also mandated 1 per cent bio-ethanol mix for cars using subsidised fuel starting 2009, while industries using gasoline must ensure 5 per cent of the fuel has bioethanol.
Fossil Fuels: Palm oil, with the highest calorific value of any vegetable oil, can be added to diesel to stretch supplies of fossil fuels. Brazil mandates the use of ethanol, made from sugar cane, in cars while the US uses corn to make ethanol.
Indonesia’s biofuel industry can produce between 1.3 million tonnes to 1.5 million tonnes annually, said Krisnamurthi. Capacity may double to 3 million tonnes by 2010, he said.
The country’s palm oil output will be more than 19 million tonnes next year and exceed 20 million in 2010, he added. Food and chemicals industry may use 4.5 million tonnes this year and next, and 5 million tonnes in 2010, Krisnamurthi said.
Palm oil for December delivery is trading at 1,819 ringgit ($520) a ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange at 4:14 pm local time. Prices have dived 60 per cent from a peak in March.
Futures may average 2,900 ringgit a tonne in 2009, compared with 3,226 ringgit so far this year, Credit Suisse’s Tan said.
Source: http://news.alibaba.com
Added 1 day 3 hours ago - JAKARTA, Oct 8 - Indonesia may consume 1 million to 1.2 million tonnes of biodiesel using palm oil as feed stock in 2009, following the introduction of a mandatory biofuel policy, a government official said on Wednesday.
The resource-rich nation has been pushing for the use of biofuels to cut the use of costly petroleum products and to help ensure the survival of its fledgling biodiesel industry.
Last month, the government issued a ministerial decree that makes the use of biofuel mandatory from 2009. [ID:nJAK127091]
"That will need crude palm oil supply of about 1.2 to 1.5 million tonnes," Bayu Krisnamurthi, deputy to the chief economic minister, told reporters. He said biodiesel use in 2010 may double the amount consumed in 2009 due to the increase in the mandatory blend.
Krisnamurthi also said the biodiesel use may reduce the portion of the country's palm oil production destined for export, starting from next year.
Indonesia's combined capacity for biofuel using palm oil as a feedstock is 2 million kilolitres per year, but it is running at 20 percent of capacity, data from the national biofuel development team shows.
For biodiesel, the decree states the transport sector must use a blend of 1 percent palm-based biodiesel and 99 percent diesel oil, while industry and power plants must use a blend of 2.5 percent and 0.25 percent palm-based biodiesel respectively.
For bioethanol, the use of a 1-5 percent blend of bioethanol and 99-95 percent of gasoline for transportation will become mandatory in 2009.
Industry will have to use a 5 percent blend of bioethanol -- which is made from cane molasses and cassava feedstock -- and 95 percent gasoline next year, increasing to 7 percent by 2010.
With the introduction of the mandatory policy, biodiesel capacity would rise to 5 million kilolitres a year by 2010, the government said recently, although it could also push up the price of palm oil.
Palm oil futures have tumbled around 40 percent since the start of the year, and have fallen more than half since hitting a record high of 4,486 ringgit a tonne in March.
Indonesia produced 17.18 million tonnes of crude palm oil in 2007, of which 3.8 million tonnes was used in the domestic market, mostly for food. Production this year is expected to rise to 18.6 million tonnes.
The grain and oilseed-based biofuel sector has come under attack from green groups for accelerating the destruction of forests, while some analysts blame it for contributing to soaring world food prices by diverting crops that could be used for food, but biofuel industry officials deny this.
Indonesia biofuel policy to reduce palm oil exports
Posted by Palm Oil HQ
Source: http://www.business-standard.com
Added 1 day 10 hours ago
Exports of palm oil from Indonesia, the largest producer, may decline by as much as 1.5 million metric tonnes a year after the nation made the use of renewable energy mandatory, a government official said.
“In relation to the mandatory policy for bio-energy issued last month, we see that the use of agricultural products for alternative energy will increase,” Bayu Krisnamurthi, a deputy to Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Boediono, said on Wednesday in Jakarta. “This will cut our exports” of palm oil.
A fall in supplies from Indonesia, the top producer of the tropical oil, may help support prices that slumped to a two-year low this week on concern slowing global economic growth will dent demand for commodities.
The mandate is “positive for the week” for palm oil prices, said Tan Ting Min, a plantation analyst at Credit Suisse Group in Kuala Lumpur.
Indonesia said September 26 diesel used for transportation must have minimum 1 per cent biodiesel starting this month. The mix was set at 2.5 per cent for industrial users. The nation also mandated 1 per cent bio-ethanol mix for cars using subsidised fuel starting 2009, while industries using gasoline must ensure 5 per cent of the fuel has bioethanol.
Fossil Fuels: Palm oil, with the highest calorific value of any vegetable oil, can be added to diesel to stretch supplies of fossil fuels. Brazil mandates the use of ethanol, made from sugar cane, in cars while the US uses corn to make ethanol.
Indonesia’s biofuel industry can produce between 1.3 million tonnes to 1.5 million tonnes annually, said Krisnamurthi. Capacity may double to 3 million tonnes by 2010, he said.
The country’s palm oil output will be more than 19 million tonnes next year and exceed 20 million in 2010, he added. Food and chemicals industry may use 4.5 million tonnes this year and next, and 5 million tonnes in 2010, Krisnamurthi said.
Palm oil for December delivery is trading at 1,819 ringgit ($520) a ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange at 4:14 pm local time. Prices have dived 60 per cent from a peak in March.
Futures may average 2,900 ringgit a tonne in 2009, compared with 3,226 ringgit so far this year, Credit Suisse’s Tan said.
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