博主评：这对于种植业来说是个好消息，但如果肥料跌得太严重也会拖累商品市场的。
如果钾肥的价格从usd750降至usd500，如果我们以每公吨cpo成本计算，这就等于省下的成本为RM66.667。
（假设目前的每公吨cpo钾肥成本为RM200）
中国化肥网 2009-7-25 9:00:56
国际钾肥市场僵局在7月10日被打破。在印度IPL公司6月30日举行的氯化钾招标会上，绝大多数投标价格在 CFR625美元左右，上下浮动不超过10美元，而IPC公司（俄罗斯希利维尼特钾肥公司的销售公司）竞以CFR460美元的价格向印度供货。在过去的半年多时间里，标准氯化钾现货价格都维持在CFR735美元左右，同时生产商们纷纷削减产量，以让各国消化库存。就在IPL举行招标前，北美钾肥销售联盟还跟日本、韩国和台湾签订了下半年供货合同，价格略高于CFR700美元，因此说CFR625美元的价格已比较低了。一些观察家认为印度合同价格将在600 美元左右，也许会低至575美元，最乐观的估计也在550美元，没人预料到会以460美元的价格成交，因为印度政府给钾肥提供补贴，且该国氯化钾库存量已降至很低。
为什么IPC会接受CFR460美元的价格带来了争议。IPC声明“向印度供货的时间将会被推迟甚至有可能被取消，因为印度政府给钾肥的补贴远高于对其他化肥品种”。印度农民购买1吨氯化钾的价格在95美元左右。
世界各地的很多买家和经销商都认为氯化钾价格在400多美元左右才能有效地刺激需求，甚至一些生产商也在私下如此表示。有人认为希利维尼特钾肥公司是迫于特殊压力答应这样的价格。去年，该公司为了取得一钾矿的开采权支付了高达15亿美元的费用。有推测该公司的压力来自贷款银行，传言有高达7亿美金的贷款短期内到期。
现在最大的疑问是其他供应商的反应，他们会接受这一新价格，还是仍然坚持CFR625美元呢？看起来接受的可能性很大，已经有一条船从以色列开往印度，而且第二条船也已被预定。一家公司在德国也预订了船只。（向槐）
(作者:向槐 责任编辑:白云)
India breaks Potash cartel to save Rs 5K cr on fertiliser subsidies
22 Jul 2009, 2104 hrs IST, Prabha Jagannathan, ET Bureau
NEW DELHI: India has managed to clinch almost three million of its annual average of
five million tonne potash imports at a record low price
of $ 460 per tonne after busting
a global potash cartel’s stranglehold on pricing. This could mean a neat saving of Rs 5000 crore from the fertiliser subsidy bill of Rs 55,000 crore (BE 09-10) since the benchmark delivered price, clinched by Indian Potash Ltd (IPL), is now applicable to all Indian potash buys.
Thus far, a small group of companies that control roughly 75 percent of global supply had cartelised to cut production drastically in order to keep the prices high. With this, India has established itself firmly in the A list of global fertiliser buyers with clout to dictate the price of the commodity, a crucial plant nutrient as well as an industrial input.
Analysts surmised that the same price level woudl be offered to China. However, the best part of the deal is that India will get the cheapest potash in the world and should China, who is the world’s biggest buyer, manage to swing a lower price, the same would apply to all the Indian potash buys as well. IPL, is the country’s biggest buyer of potash and imports around 3.5 million tonnes annually. “Nobody else is going to swing a lower price for potash by wielding the gun from our shoulders,” Iffco MD U S Awasthi told ET. Iffco, the country’s largest fertiliser cooperative, owns 34% stake in IPL.
But on July 13, when it sewed up the first deal on potash supplies to the tune of 8.5 lakh tonnes at a literally jaw-dropper price of $460/tonne with IPC, UK (Silvinit’s marketing arm), it was dismissed by sectoral analysts worldwide as a fluke deal with a “desperate” company. The offer price by a powerful cartel of global potash majors including Canpotex, which is owned by Potash Corp, Mosaic Co. and Agrium Inc. was $625-635/tonne. Potash prices had soared in June to $700/tonne despite low demand thanks to the grip of the same cartel on prices. Canpotex sells Canadian potash to Brazil, China, India, and other Asian markets,
The real breakthrough that reinforced the benchmark price , though, only happened this Monday, when the world’s sixth largest potash maker and the second largest listed company on the Tel Aviv stock exchange, Israel Chemicals (ICL), took a beating on its shares overnight and caved in. “That proved the Doubting Thomases completely wrong on our price deal with Silvinit being a fluke,” points of P S Gahlaut, head of IPL. Shares of ICL ended down 8.7 percent at 35.60 shekels, by far the biggest decline on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange.
Immediately after, it signed the 9 month supply deal on July 20 for 5.75 lakh tonnes of
potash to IPL at $460/tonne. It also started
talking to other potash customers in India,
against indications that its earnings could be impacted. ICL’s supply volume was lower than last year since Silvinit ( SILV.RTS) had already secured a more than normal supply deal with India. Ironically, only the week before, ICL had been iffy on any potash supply deal with IPL.
The potash drama began when, after the Silvinit deal, shares of several potash majors worldwide started nosediving, pushing other potash exporters, Germany’s K&S, BPC (Belorus) , Canpotex and APC (Arab Potash) to the wall on their offer price. Shares of Potash Corp, the world's largest potash producer, fell 3 percent to $82.47 on the New York Stock Exchange last fortnight while its peers Mosaic and Agrium were also trading lower. Concerns sharpened after the Silvinit deal was sealed. On July 21, German potash makers K&S singed on for supply of one lakh tonnes at $460/tonne to IPL. On July 22, the Belarussian Potash Corp.
which had started rethinking its potash pricing strategy after the Silvinit deal, signed on for supply of five lakh tonnes at the benchmark price. It didn’t take long for the giants to follow suit. “Today, we are in talks with Arab Potash and Canpotex and could soon sew up a supply deal at the benchmark price with both,” Gahlaut told ET. A supply deal for over one million tonnes of potash is expected to be wrapped up with these giants.
Belarusian Potash Co. a 50-50 joint venture between Russia's Uralkali and Belaruskali, initially offered the second-lowest price, followed by Israel Chemicals Ltd., K+S AG, Jordan’s Arab Potash Corp., and Canpotex Ltd., marketer for g North American producers Potash Corp., Mosaic Co. and Agrium Inc. BPC,. the three in the Canpotex partnership, Silvinit and Germany's K+S account for about 75 percent of global potash supply.
Potash is the common name given to potassium carbonate and various mined and manufactured salts that contain the element potassium in water-soluble form.Potash has been used since antiquity in the manufacture of glass, soap, and soil fertilizer. Potash is important for agriculture because it improves water retention, yield, nutrient value, taste, colour, texture and disease resistance of food crops. It has wide application to fruit and vegetables, rice, wheat and other grains, sugar, corn, soybeans, palm oil and cotton, all of which benefit from the nutrient’s quality enhancing properties.
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