JAKARTA: Malaysian palm futures dropped more than 4 per cent by mid-day today amid worries that buyers will seek palm oil from rival Indonesia after Jakarta scrapped a tax on palm oil exports, traders said.
Indonesia’s finance minister said yesterday the export tax on crude palm oil had been cut to zero per cent, as part of a package of measures intended to shore up confidence in financial markets.
“News from Indonesia is going to be closely monitored. That’s bearish news for us because buyers will import more from Indonesia,” a trader at a Kuala Lumpur-based brokerage firm said.
The benchmark January contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange dropped RM60, or 4.11 per cent, to RM1,399 (US$399) a tonne by mid-day.
The January contract hit a low of RM1,331 per tonne yesterday, the weakest since mid-August 2005.
Contracts of other traded months dropped between RM39 and RM67. The overall volume stood at 2,962 tonnes.
The Indonesian government had previously set a 2.5 per cent tax rate for palm oil exports in November, down from 7.5 per cent for October.
Indonesia, the world’s top producer of palm oil — which is used in a wide range of products from soap to biodiesel - is forecast to produce 18.6 million tonnes of crude palm oil this year, compared with 17.2 million tonnes in 2007.
Apart from news on Indonesian tax, lower crude oil prices are also adding to the negative tone for palm markets, a trader at a Malaysian commodity brokerage said.
US crude futures were up US$1.71, or 2.73 per cent, to US$64.44 a barrel at 0511 GMT in Asian trading, off a high of US$66.71 earlier.
The most active December soybean oil rose 0.54 cents, or 1.69 per cent, to 32.42 cents per lb.
In the physical market, Malaysian palm oil for October and November delivery stood at RM1,400/1,420 a tonne in the southern and central region.
Trades were done at RM1,420-RM1,440 in the southern region and RM1,410-RM1,440 a tonne in the central region. - Reuters
29 October 2008
SOP被湿地组织盯上了
http://www.wetlands.org/Aboutwetlandareas/Threatenedwetlandsites/PeatswampforestsofSarawakMalaysia/tabid/1368/Default.aspx
环保人士虽痛恨这些，但我却对这个消息感到无奈和同情。
Sarawak的木材砍伐虽然给环境造成破坏，但却让贫穷率降低，虽然说发财的人只有1000个人，但如果他们不发财的话，他们就没有钱做地方发展和地方事业了，这是相当矛盾的。
Peat swamp forest是和“国家公园”或“保护地”挂上等号的，长久以来他们被水掩盖，如果要转换成油棕园，就一定要挖排水沟（Drainage canal），和砍伐红树林和沼泽林。砍伐后的树木，马上就地取材，通过Drainage canal输送出去。
森林局常常推托他们的湿地常常遭遇起火，想信这是他们通关默许的。虽然湿地组织深入当地教育和防范，但这股趋势是不能被阻止的。
环保人士虽痛恨这些，但我却对这个消息感到无奈和同情。
Sarawak的木材砍伐虽然给环境造成破坏，但却让贫穷率降低，虽然说发财的人只有1000个人，但如果他们不发财的话，他们就没有钱做地方发展和地方事业了，这是相当矛盾的。
Peat swamp forest是和“国家公园”或“保护地”挂上等号的，长久以来他们被水掩盖，如果要转换成油棕园，就一定要挖排水沟（Drainage canal），和砍伐红树林和沼泽林。砍伐后的树木，马上就地取材，通过Drainage canal输送出去。
森林局常常推托他们的湿地常常遭遇起火，想信这是他们通关默许的。虽然湿地组织深入当地教育和防范，但这股趋势是不能被阻止的。
陈华贵的承诺信得过吗？
这个星期4或5（懒得查），政府商议对策，以解决当前的问题，到时会有什么提案出炉呢？
先来做些预测
1.小园主翻种融资，面对许多阻碍。政府相信会向银行施加压力，放宽融资。
2.对外贸易，提供更便利的银行担保。
3.肥料津贴。
4.津贴生柴厂商，每公吨RM450，并定下国内强制混合柴油的时间表。
5.加强对烧芭活动和永续经营的监管。
我们认为这些都是“讲容易，做很难”的选项。
如果是1，很可能会害了他们，如果他们血本无归怎么办？
如果是3，就意味着cpo不会起的讯号更加强烈了，不津贴还好，一津贴就表示你投降了。
如果是4，更难，因为厂商迟迟不开工。
biodiesel capacity最大wilmar宁可选择在印尼开厂也不要马来西亚开厂，问题出在哪里？相信这是因为印尼不对生柴征收出口税，估量后，他们觉得在印尼开厂更好（宁可不要马来西亚的津贴？）。
如果是5，不可能。
马印两地的火点（HAZE/HOT SPOT），从来就不曾减少过，可以预见的是，这个月会有更多的火点。
目前的情况是“相当凄惨”，但还没有到“很凄惨”的程度，我们必须经历“很凄惨”的阶段，才可能回到舒适水平。以经济操盘手的角度分析，应该是这样。
6.取消州税。
又怀疑，又期待。
先来做些预测
1.小园主翻种融资，面对许多阻碍。政府相信会向银行施加压力，放宽融资。
2.对外贸易，提供更便利的银行担保。
3.肥料津贴。
4.津贴生柴厂商，每公吨RM450，并定下国内强制混合柴油的时间表。
5.加强对烧芭活动和永续经营的监管。
我们认为这些都是“讲容易，做很难”的选项。
如果是1，很可能会害了他们，如果他们血本无归怎么办？
如果是3，就意味着cpo不会起的讯号更加强烈了，不津贴还好，一津贴就表示你投降了。
如果是4，更难，因为厂商迟迟不开工。
biodiesel capacity最大wilmar宁可选择在印尼开厂也不要马来西亚开厂，问题出在哪里？相信这是因为印尼不对生柴征收出口税，估量后，他们觉得在印尼开厂更好（宁可不要马来西亚的津贴？）。
如果是5，不可能。
马印两地的火点（HAZE/HOT SPOT），从来就不曾减少过，可以预见的是，这个月会有更多的火点。
目前的情况是“相当凄惨”，但还没有到“很凄惨”的程度，我们必须经历“很凄惨”的阶段，才可能回到舒适水平。以经济操盘手的角度分析，应该是这样。
6.取消州税。
又怀疑，又期待。
28 October 2008
Cepatwawasan sees ROI of 15% from palm oil bio-energy projects
source : thestar
KUALA LUMPUR: Cepatwawasan Group Bhd expects return on investment (ROI) of about 15% on average for its two bio-energy projects costing RM80mil that would use palm waste to generate electricity.
Executive chairman Datuk Mah King Thian said he expected the 3MW biogas plant and 10MW biomass fired plant, which would be built in Sandakan, to contribute about RM20mil annually to group revenue by 2011.
He told StarBiz that construction on the plants would be tendered out and work was expected to start by mid-2009 and commissioned by 2010. Financing would be from the company’s own funds and project financing.
“The projects have been endorsed by the Energy, Water and Communications Ministry under the small renewable energy programme to supply green power to the electricity grid,” he said.
Under the agreement signed last Friday, Cepatwawasan would sell power to the Sabah Electricity Sdn Bhd (SESB) and generate carbon credits derived from reduction of green house gas emissions worth more than RM20mil per annum.
Denmark’s Climate and Energy Ministry and Nordysk Elhandel A/S will undertake the clean development mechanism (CDM) projects with Cepatwawasan. The Danish government would then buy the carbon credits.
“Construction cost of the plant was RM60mil for the biomass plant and RM20mil for the biogass plant,” Mah said.
He added that Cepatwawasan was expected to sign a renewable energy power purchase agreement with SESB early next year.
Mah said the projects would utilise all waste products from the palm oil milling process to generate electricity.
Asked if the company was affected by the declining crude palm oil (CPO) prices, Mah remained optimistic about its business.
“We will be affected,” he said, but based on the first six months of this year, Cepatwawasan’s operating cost was below RM1,200 per tonne.
“So even at the current low, we are still confident that we are profitable. We have a low gearing of 0.1 times,” he said.
On the sharp fall in CPO prices, he said the panic reaction was not linked to global demand,” he said. CPO third-month futures closed at RM1,390 per tonne last Friday.
Royal Danish Ambassador Svend Waever exchanging documents with Cepatwawasan MD Datuk Mah King Seng. Looking on are Royal Danish Embassy counsellor Bo Monsted (extreme left) and Cepatwawasan Berhad executive chairman Datuk Mah King Thian (extreme right) after the signing ceremony for Clean Development Mechanism ( CDM ) project at Le Meriden Hotel, Kuala Lumpur. - Starpix by Victor K.K. Ng
another news from bernama
October 24, 2008 18:25 PM
Cepatwawasan Expects RM20 Million Annual Revenue By 2011 From Bio-Energy Business
KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 24 (Bernama) -- Main-board listed oil palm plantation company, Cepatwawasan Group Bhd, expects its bio-energy generation business to contribute about RM20 million in revenue annually by 2011.
The projection is based on the sale of electricity to Sabah Electricity Sdn Bhd (SESB) and also the carbon credits derived from certified emission reduction, its executive chairman Datuk Mah King Thian said on Friday
He said Cepatwawasan is expected to sign a renewable energy purchase agreement (Repa) with SESB early next year.
Mah was speaking after the signing of agreement for Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects between the Danish Ministry of Climate and Energy and Mistral Engineering Sdn Bhd, a subsidiary of Cepatwawasan. An agreement was also signed between Nordjysk Elhandel A/S and Mistral Engineering and Cash Horse (M) Sdn Bhd.
The ceremony was officiated by the new Danish Ambassador to Malaysia, Svend Waever.
Cash Horse is also a subsidiary of Cepatwawasan, while Nordjysk Elhandel is a Danish private limited company involved in trading and generation of power.
Cepatwawasan's two green bio-energy projects at the Prolific Yield Palm Oil Mill in Sandakan, Sabah, will utilise all waste products from the palm oil milling process and turn it into electricity.
The projects have been endorsed by the Energy, Water and Communications Ministry under the Small Renewable Energy Programme (SREP) to supply green power to the electricity grid.
The projects -- Biogas Energy Plant, at RM20 million cost, will be generating about three megawatt of power for supply to the grid of SESB, while the Biomass Energy Plant to cost RM60 million, will be able to export 10 megawatt of power to the grid of SESB.
"The total cost of RM80 million will come from internally generated funds and from project financing mainly using the Repa. The construction is expected to commence mid next year and we expect it to be completed by 2010," said Mah.
Cepatwawasan's two bio-energy projects are expected to be registered for the CDM, which is part of the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol.
CDM allows emission reducing projects to generate carbon credits and trade these with countries, which have binding targets for emission reductions under the Kyoto Protocol.
On another development, Mah said the group is setting up a Cepatwawasan Education Resource Center (CERC) at Sukau, Kinabatangan, Sabah as part of its corporate social responsibility programmes.
Mah said CERC is to provide high-level pre-school to primary education for children around Segaliud, Sukau and will benefit around 100 children from four to 12-years old.
"The total cost is estimated at about RM1 million and it will occupy an area of less than two acres. Construction is to commence next two weeks and to be completed by May 2009," he said.
Asked on the declining crude palm oil price, Mah said: "In the first six months of this year, we have analysed our operating cost at below RM1,200 per metric tonne of oil. So even at current low, we are confident that we are still profitable and also we have a low gearing at about 0.1 times."
Meanwhile, Waever said through the CDM, Denmark will assist Danish companies to enter the Malaysian market as there is a vast potential for CDM projects in Malaysia.
On the impact of the global financial crisis on trade between Denmark and Malaysia, he said the Danish Embassy expected bilateral trade to increase with Malaysia as the country was not expected to be very much affected by the crisis.
He said Danish exports to Malaysia increased by almost 20 percent year-on-year from 2006-2007 within various sectors particularly in the areas of pharmaceuticals and food.
-- BERNAMA
KUALA LUMPUR: Cepatwawasan Group Bhd expects return on investment (ROI) of about 15% on average for its two bio-energy projects costing RM80mil that would use palm waste to generate electricity.
Executive chairman Datuk Mah King Thian said he expected the 3MW biogas plant and 10MW biomass fired plant, which would be built in Sandakan, to contribute about RM20mil annually to group revenue by 2011.
He told StarBiz that construction on the plants would be tendered out and work was expected to start by mid-2009 and commissioned by 2010. Financing would be from the company’s own funds and project financing.
“The projects have been endorsed by the Energy, Water and Communications Ministry under the small renewable energy programme to supply green power to the electricity grid,” he said.
Under the agreement signed last Friday, Cepatwawasan would sell power to the Sabah Electricity Sdn Bhd (SESB) and generate carbon credits derived from reduction of green house gas emissions worth more than RM20mil per annum.
Denmark’s Climate and Energy Ministry and Nordysk Elhandel A/S will undertake the clean development mechanism (CDM) projects with Cepatwawasan. The Danish government would then buy the carbon credits.
“Construction cost of the plant was RM60mil for the biomass plant and RM20mil for the biogass plant,” Mah said.
He added that Cepatwawasan was expected to sign a renewable energy power purchase agreement with SESB early next year.
Mah said the projects would utilise all waste products from the palm oil milling process to generate electricity.
Asked if the company was affected by the declining crude palm oil (CPO) prices, Mah remained optimistic about its business.
“We will be affected,” he said, but based on the first six months of this year, Cepatwawasan’s operating cost was below RM1,200 per tonne.
“So even at the current low, we are still confident that we are profitable. We have a low gearing of 0.1 times,” he said.
On the sharp fall in CPO prices, he said the panic reaction was not linked to global demand,” he said. CPO third-month futures closed at RM1,390 per tonne last Friday.
Royal Danish Ambassador Svend Waever exchanging documents with Cepatwawasan MD Datuk Mah King Seng. Looking on are Royal Danish Embassy counsellor Bo Monsted (extreme left) and Cepatwawasan Berhad executive chairman Datuk Mah King Thian (extreme right) after the signing ceremony for Clean Development Mechanism ( CDM ) project at Le Meriden Hotel, Kuala Lumpur. - Starpix by Victor K.K. Ng
another news from bernama
October 24, 2008 18:25 PM
Cepatwawasan Expects RM20 Million Annual Revenue By 2011 From Bio-Energy Business
KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 24 (Bernama) -- Main-board listed oil palm plantation company, Cepatwawasan Group Bhd, expects its bio-energy generation business to contribute about RM20 million in revenue annually by 2011.
The projection is based on the sale of electricity to Sabah Electricity Sdn Bhd (SESB) and also the carbon credits derived from certified emission reduction, its executive chairman Datuk Mah King Thian said on Friday
He said Cepatwawasan is expected to sign a renewable energy purchase agreement (Repa) with SESB early next year.
Mah was speaking after the signing of agreement for Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects between the Danish Ministry of Climate and Energy and Mistral Engineering Sdn Bhd, a subsidiary of Cepatwawasan. An agreement was also signed between Nordjysk Elhandel A/S and Mistral Engineering and Cash Horse (M) Sdn Bhd.
The ceremony was officiated by the new Danish Ambassador to Malaysia, Svend Waever.
Cash Horse is also a subsidiary of Cepatwawasan, while Nordjysk Elhandel is a Danish private limited company involved in trading and generation of power.
Cepatwawasan's two green bio-energy projects at the Prolific Yield Palm Oil Mill in Sandakan, Sabah, will utilise all waste products from the palm oil milling process and turn it into electricity.
The projects have been endorsed by the Energy, Water and Communications Ministry under the Small Renewable Energy Programme (SREP) to supply green power to the electricity grid.
The projects -- Biogas Energy Plant, at RM20 million cost, will be generating about three megawatt of power for supply to the grid of SESB, while the Biomass Energy Plant to cost RM60 million, will be able to export 10 megawatt of power to the grid of SESB.
"The total cost of RM80 million will come from internally generated funds and from project financing mainly using the Repa. The construction is expected to commence mid next year and we expect it to be completed by 2010," said Mah.
Cepatwawasan's two bio-energy projects are expected to be registered for the CDM, which is part of the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol.
CDM allows emission reducing projects to generate carbon credits and trade these with countries, which have binding targets for emission reductions under the Kyoto Protocol.
On another development, Mah said the group is setting up a Cepatwawasan Education Resource Center (CERC) at Sukau, Kinabatangan, Sabah as part of its corporate social responsibility programmes.
Mah said CERC is to provide high-level pre-school to primary education for children around Segaliud, Sukau and will benefit around 100 children from four to 12-years old.
"The total cost is estimated at about RM1 million and it will occupy an area of less than two acres. Construction is to commence next two weeks and to be completed by May 2009," he said.
Asked on the declining crude palm oil price, Mah said: "In the first six months of this year, we have analysed our operating cost at below RM1,200 per metric tonne of oil. So even at current low, we are confident that we are still profitable and also we have a low gearing at about 0.1 times."
Meanwhile, Waever said through the CDM, Denmark will assist Danish companies to enter the Malaysian market as there is a vast potential for CDM projects in Malaysia.
On the impact of the global financial crisis on trade between Denmark and Malaysia, he said the Danish Embassy expected bilateral trade to increase with Malaysia as the country was not expected to be very much affected by the crisis.
He said Danish exports to Malaysia increased by almost 20 percent year-on-year from 2006-2007 within various sectors particularly in the areas of pharmaceuticals and food.
-- BERNAMA
My Trader's View
http://mytradersview.blogspot.com/
这名博主掌握的资料很快，推荐。
可以说他是最快拿到出口数据的BLOG。
另他也提供了港口的投标（tender ）笔数，这些数据可用来分析BMD FCPO（BURSA MALAYSIA DERIVATIVE)，当然如果你很想了解CARGO 作业和CLEARING HOUSE作业，这些数据是不够的。
我了解的不多，推荐而已。
这名博主掌握的资料很快，推荐。
可以说他是最快拿到出口数据的BLOG。
另他也提供了港口的投标（tender ）笔数，这些数据可用来分析BMD FCPO（BURSA MALAYSIA DERIVATIVE)，当然如果你很想了解CARGO 作业和CLEARING HOUSE作业，这些数据是不够的。
我了解的不多，推荐而已。
26 October 2008
碳配额市场
目前的碳配额期货交易市场, 可分为欧洲平台(European Union Allowance)和国际平台(Certified Emission Reduction)两大类.
EUA附属于UK Registry, CER附属于[京都条约].
当前的趋势是EUA和CER在整合电子交易平台,预计在April 09完成.
在现货市场方面, CER的certificate是由CDM单位监管和保留的,这个监管单位就像我们的中央股票库存系统,买卖碳配额需要通过它完成. 在世界各地都有CDM专门拍卖所(clearing house), 但这都附属于联合国.
马来西亚较普遍的是CER.
欧洲也可以参与CER.
至于UEA, 由25欧洲国家组成.
UEA的框架是进阶的,从2005-2007的PHASE I, 进阶到现在的PHASE II(2012到期).
UEA可通过私下交易,broker,exchange完成.
上述市场除了有二氧化碳交易,也有氯氟碳(冷气气体)和BIOGAS等等弄不明白的交易.
EUA比CER贵上5欧元到9欧元不等, 原因不明.
马来西亚棕油厂碳配额,每公吨是10欧元到12欧元,这应该是被转手商赚了,因为今年的CER价格是16欧元到22欧元. 等翅膀长硬以后,本地公司应该一手包办碳配额, 别让中介人赚那么多.
不要忘记一件事, 碳配额价格也会随着经济下跌的,他能下到多少根本是未知数.
EUA附属于UK Registry, CER附属于[京都条约].
当前的趋势是EUA和CER在整合电子交易平台,预计在April 09完成.
在现货市场方面, CER的certificate是由CDM单位监管和保留的,这个监管单位就像我们的中央股票库存系统,买卖碳配额需要通过它完成. 在世界各地都有CDM专门拍卖所(clearing house), 但这都附属于联合国.
马来西亚较普遍的是CER.
欧洲也可以参与CER.
至于UEA, 由25欧洲国家组成.
UEA的框架是进阶的,从2005-2007的PHASE I, 进阶到现在的PHASE II(2012到期).
UEA可通过私下交易,broker,exchange完成.
上述市场除了有二氧化碳交易,也有氯氟碳(冷气气体)和BIOGAS等等弄不明白的交易.
EUA比CER贵上5欧元到9欧元不等, 原因不明.
马来西亚棕油厂碳配额,每公吨是10欧元到12欧元,这应该是被转手商赚了,因为今年的CER价格是16欧元到22欧元. 等翅膀长硬以后,本地公司应该一手包办碳配额, 别让中介人赚那么多.
不要忘记一件事, 碳配额价格也会随着经济下跌的,他能下到多少根本是未知数.
24 October 2008
M’sian palm oil mills to drive Ronser’s growth
CARBON CREDIT是个有趣的东西，但也会随时蚀本。
CB也会供过于求（如果局势差下去）。
CB可在Chicago Climate Exchange购买，在EBAY都能找到（不懂真不真），你也可以付钱给砍树的人禁止他砍树，或栽种树木，以换取CARBON UNIT。
其中最赚钱的人，是转手商，但注册费是数万美元。
Friday October 24, 2008
By LAW KAI CHOW
DAMANSARA: Ronser Bio-Tech Sdn Bhd, a newly set up industrial waste treatment company, will focus on palm oil mills in Malaysia to drive growth.
Company advisor Chua Peng Len said the company was targeting palm oil mills, as the potential was good because Malaysia palm oil mills were still using the old system for waste treatment.
“The palm oil mill market is large in Malaysia, as there are about 400 palm oil mills in Malaysia,” Chua told reporters at a briefing.
“However, we do not see anyone in this industry that has the complete closed-end system that is capable of treating the effluent up to zero discharge.” he said.
He said Ronser Bio-Tech has also entered into an agreement with YTL-SV Carbon Sdn Bhd to assist Ronser Bio-Tech’s clients apply for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and help them to market their carbon credits.
The CDM is a scheme under the Kyoto Protocol which helps developing countries achieve sustainable development through the sale of certified emission reduction, or carbon credits, to developed and industrialised countries.
“The estimated cost for a 60-tonne per hour mill system is about RM6mil,” Chua said, referring to palm oil mills.
“Mills of this size generate about 30,000 tonnes of carbon credits a year, so the direct return on investment is in the region RM1.5mil a year.” he added
Meanwhile, Chua said Ronser Bio-Tech has set up 10-year joint venture with China’s Shanghai Jiao Tong University to develop advanced environmental protection technology.
It would spend RM3mil in research and development during that period.
Last month, Ronser purchased a 100% stake in Shanghai-based biotechnology company KangChern Environmental Science & Technology Co Ltd for 45mil renminbi (RM6.6mil).
Currently, Ronser Bio-Tech’s clients in China include China Petrol, China Resources Snow Brewery, Coca-Cola and Pepsico’s operations in China.
CB也会供过于求（如果局势差下去）。
CB可在Chicago Climate Exchange购买，在EBAY都能找到（不懂真不真），你也可以付钱给砍树的人禁止他砍树，或栽种树木，以换取CARBON UNIT。
其中最赚钱的人，是转手商，但注册费是数万美元。
Friday October 24, 2008
By LAW KAI CHOW
DAMANSARA: Ronser Bio-Tech Sdn Bhd, a newly set up industrial waste treatment company, will focus on palm oil mills in Malaysia to drive growth.
Company advisor Chua Peng Len said the company was targeting palm oil mills, as the potential was good because Malaysia palm oil mills were still using the old system for waste treatment.
“The palm oil mill market is large in Malaysia, as there are about 400 palm oil mills in Malaysia,” Chua told reporters at a briefing.
“However, we do not see anyone in this industry that has the complete closed-end system that is capable of treating the effluent up to zero discharge.” he said.
He said Ronser Bio-Tech has also entered into an agreement with YTL-SV Carbon Sdn Bhd to assist Ronser Bio-Tech’s clients apply for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and help them to market their carbon credits.
The CDM is a scheme under the Kyoto Protocol which helps developing countries achieve sustainable development through the sale of certified emission reduction, or carbon credits, to developed and industrialised countries.
“The estimated cost for a 60-tonne per hour mill system is about RM6mil,” Chua said, referring to palm oil mills.
“Mills of this size generate about 30,000 tonnes of carbon credits a year, so the direct return on investment is in the region RM1.5mil a year.” he added
Meanwhile, Chua said Ronser Bio-Tech has set up 10-year joint venture with China’s Shanghai Jiao Tong University to develop advanced environmental protection technology.
It would spend RM3mil in research and development during that period.
Last month, Ronser purchased a 100% stake in Shanghai-based biotechnology company KangChern Environmental Science & Technology Co Ltd for 45mil renminbi (RM6.6mil).
Currently, Ronser Bio-Tech’s clients in China include China Petrol, China Resources Snow Brewery, Coca-Cola and Pepsico’s operations in China.
ioi corporation 开始回购了
续【ioi corporation 可能停止回购了】
ioicorp在22/10/2008,通过了股东所赋予的回购权限,他们在第二天很"积极"的回购了300,000股,花费RM895,362.20
但, 这并不是说他们不能在22/10/2008当天或前段"真空时间"里回购股票.
从种种迹象来看,ioicorp是有胆量当黑脸的,这个时候才是考验人性的时候.
直至现在,还不知道他的兑汇亏损是多少.
ioicorp在22/10/2008,通过了股东所赋予的回购权限,他们在第二天很"积极"的回购了300,000股,花费RM895,362.20
但, 这并不是说他们不能在22/10/2008当天或前段"真空时间"里回购股票.
从种种迹象来看,ioicorp是有胆量当黑脸的,这个时候才是考验人性的时候.
直至现在,还不知道他的兑汇亏损是多少.
Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) Refutes Palm Oil Planters' Claims
Tuesday, October 21, 2008 10:53 PM
(Source: New Straits Times)By Ooi Tee Ching
THE Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) uses only 60 per cent of the cess collected from oil palm planters for its research and development (R&D) enforcement and licensing activities.
It collects cess amounting to RM15 per tonne of palm oil and palm kernel oil produced at mills and crushers in Malaysia. But only RM9 per tonne of palm oil and palm kernel oil is for its own use.
The remaining RM6 per tonne of palm oil and palm kernel oil is for palm oil promotion and price stabilisation.
In a statement issued yesterday, MPOB director general Datuk Dr Mohd Basri Wahid refuted claims by several Sarawak oil palm planters that it was not serving the palm oil sector effectively and failed to carry out its original role as an R&D institution.
He said MPOB collected RM247.24 million from Sarawak oil palm companies, of which 93 per cent or RM230.42 million, was channelled to cooking oil manufacturers under the Cooking Oil Subsidy Scheme. RM16.82 million went to MPOB for its R&D, enforcement and licensing activities.
"MPOB is not a commercial entity. We're not involved in any business ventures nor do we own any subsidiaries that are profit oriented," he said.
Basri said RM2.8 million worth of high yielding oil palm seedlings had been disbursed to smallholders in Sarawak.
MPOB is also collaborating with Universiti Malaysia Sarawak to conduct research on biodiversity and Curtin University Sarawak to harness new technologies in palm oil processing.
(c) 2008 New Straits Times. Provided by ProQuest LLC. All rights Reserved.
A service of YellowBrix, Inc.
(Source: New Straits Times)By Ooi Tee Ching
THE Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) uses only 60 per cent of the cess collected from oil palm planters for its research and development (R&D) enforcement and licensing activities.
It collects cess amounting to RM15 per tonne of palm oil and palm kernel oil produced at mills and crushers in Malaysia. But only RM9 per tonne of palm oil and palm kernel oil is for its own use.
The remaining RM6 per tonne of palm oil and palm kernel oil is for palm oil promotion and price stabilisation.
In a statement issued yesterday, MPOB director general Datuk Dr Mohd Basri Wahid refuted claims by several Sarawak oil palm planters that it was not serving the palm oil sector effectively and failed to carry out its original role as an R&D institution.
He said MPOB collected RM247.24 million from Sarawak oil palm companies, of which 93 per cent or RM230.42 million, was channelled to cooking oil manufacturers under the Cooking Oil Subsidy Scheme. RM16.82 million went to MPOB for its R&D, enforcement and licensing activities.
"MPOB is not a commercial entity. We're not involved in any business ventures nor do we own any subsidiaries that are profit oriented," he said.
Basri said RM2.8 million worth of high yielding oil palm seedlings had been disbursed to smallholders in Sarawak.
MPOB is also collaborating with Universiti Malaysia Sarawak to conduct research on biodiversity and Curtin University Sarawak to harness new technologies in palm oil processing.
(c) 2008 New Straits Times. Provided by ProQuest LLC. All rights Reserved.
A service of YellowBrix, Inc.
Higher costs hurting some small palm oil planters
October 22，2008
Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my
PETALING JAYA: The sharp drop in crude palm oil (CPO) prices, rising cost of raw materials and burdensome taxes have resulted in the cost of production (COP) escalating among local plantation players, hurting smaller and newer plantation companies, especially those from Sarawak.
Planters claim that the current COP had surged, on average, RM1,200 to RM1,700 per tonne now.
The COP of more efficient planters jumped at least 50% to RM1,200 per tonne currently from RM600 to RM650 in the past five years.
The COP at the less efficient planters, as well as new planters, which meant younger palm trees with lower yields, shot up 87.5% to above RM1,500 per tonne from RM800 earlier.
“Just imagine with a COP above RM1,500 at the current CPO price of RM1,600 to RM1,700 per tonne, many medium to small-time planters will be facing difficulties in making (decent) margins,” said Malaysian Estate Owners’ Association president Boon Weng Siew.
Analysts have estimated that the COP among Sarawak oil palm players would be the highest nationwide at RM1,700 to RM2,000 per tonne.
“At current CPO price of RM1,700, how are Sarawak players going to break even or service their high borrowings at the banks and pay the windfall tax?” Boon asked.
He said the COP situation has changed dramatically, especially the price of fertilisers.
The price of fertilizers had gone up by almost three folds to RM4,000 per tonne from RM1,300 to RM1,400 per tonne over the past three years.
The COP of efficient planters like IOI Corp Bhd and United Plantations Bhd is estimated to be in the range of RM1,100 to RM1,200 per tonne “at best,” according to Boon.
Analysts have projected the two companies’ yield at 25 to 28 tonnes per ha per year, which was higher than the national industry average of 20 tonnes.
Plantation giant Sime Darby Bhd is said to have an average COP of about RM1,100 per tonne.
Plantation analysts projected the COP for medium-sized planters like IJM Plantations Bhd, Tradewinds Plantation Bhd and Asiatic Development Bhd at RM1,300 to RM1,500 per tonne.
Of late, many oil palm planters nationwide are struggling to keep their escalating COP at bay while grappling with the current decline in crude palm oil (CPO) prices.
They also have to contend with taxes deemed unfair such as the windfall tax and the cess imposed by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), as well as the high cost of fertilizers, chemicals and fuels.
The CPO price trend in November and December would be critical to determine the actual margin erosion among local plantation companies, an analyst with a bank-backed brokerage said.
But he noted that the average CPO price at RM3,000 per tonne so far this year was still higher than the 2007 average at RM2,600 per tonne.
“I strongly believe that major oil palm plantation companies can still make good profits for 2008, given the higher CPO average this year and many have locked in their CPO selling price at RM3,000 per tonne in the previous months,” the analyst said.
Boon said many Sarawak-based oil palm plantation players, as new entrants with poor FFB yields, would be hit harder this year, given the bearish CPO price, high COP and the various taxes imposed on them such as the windfall tax.
Last week, seven major Sarawak oil palm companies appealed to the Government to waive the windfall tax or raise the CPO threshold price to RM3,000 per tonne from RM2,000 for calculating the windfall tax.
The Government has imposed a windfall tax on CPO sales at above RM2,000 per tonne, with a 15% tax applicable to plantations in mainland Malaysia, and a 7.5% tax for those in east Malaysia.
Ta Ann Holdings Bhd, a giant timber group with heavy investments in oil palm plantations, is worried.
Managing director Datuk Wong Kuo Hea said: “Seasoned Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah planters have enough hectarage of profitable harvesting area to be financially self dependent.
“Sarawak, as a late entrant, has the lowest area planted with only 20% that can contribute to profit. We are also not financially self-sufficient in our operation and still require huge injection of funds into our new plantations.”
Analysts have projected that many Sarawak planters would continue to make losses from the first to fifth year of harvesting but would start to make profit only in year six if the CPO price was at RM1,700 per tonne.
Top listed Sarawak-based planters include Ta Ann, Sarawak Plantations Bhd, Rimbunan Sawit Bhd, Sarawak Oil Palm Bhd and WTK Holdings Bhd.
Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my
PETALING JAYA: The sharp drop in crude palm oil (CPO) prices, rising cost of raw materials and burdensome taxes have resulted in the cost of production (COP) escalating among local plantation players, hurting smaller and newer plantation companies, especially those from Sarawak.
Planters claim that the current COP had surged, on average, RM1,200 to RM1,700 per tonne now.
The COP of more efficient planters jumped at least 50% to RM1,200 per tonne currently from RM600 to RM650 in the past five years.
The COP at the less efficient planters, as well as new planters, which meant younger palm trees with lower yields, shot up 87.5% to above RM1,500 per tonne from RM800 earlier.
“Just imagine with a COP above RM1,500 at the current CPO price of RM1,600 to RM1,700 per tonne, many medium to small-time planters will be facing difficulties in making (decent) margins,” said Malaysian Estate Owners’ Association president Boon Weng Siew.
Analysts have estimated that the COP among Sarawak oil palm players would be the highest nationwide at RM1,700 to RM2,000 per tonne.
“At current CPO price of RM1,700, how are Sarawak players going to break even or service their high borrowings at the banks and pay the windfall tax?” Boon asked.
He said the COP situation has changed dramatically, especially the price of fertilisers.
The price of fertilizers had gone up by almost three folds to RM4,000 per tonne from RM1,300 to RM1,400 per tonne over the past three years.
The COP of efficient planters like IOI Corp Bhd and United Plantations Bhd is estimated to be in the range of RM1,100 to RM1,200 per tonne “at best,” according to Boon.
Analysts have projected the two companies’ yield at 25 to 28 tonnes per ha per year, which was higher than the national industry average of 20 tonnes.
Plantation giant Sime Darby Bhd is said to have an average COP of about RM1,100 per tonne.
Plantation analysts projected the COP for medium-sized planters like IJM Plantations Bhd, Tradewinds Plantation Bhd and Asiatic Development Bhd at RM1,300 to RM1,500 per tonne.
Of late, many oil palm planters nationwide are struggling to keep their escalating COP at bay while grappling with the current decline in crude palm oil (CPO) prices.
They also have to contend with taxes deemed unfair such as the windfall tax and the cess imposed by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), as well as the high cost of fertilizers, chemicals and fuels.
The CPO price trend in November and December would be critical to determine the actual margin erosion among local plantation companies, an analyst with a bank-backed brokerage said.
But he noted that the average CPO price at RM3,000 per tonne so far this year was still higher than the 2007 average at RM2,600 per tonne.
“I strongly believe that major oil palm plantation companies can still make good profits for 2008, given the higher CPO average this year and many have locked in their CPO selling price at RM3,000 per tonne in the previous months,” the analyst said.
Boon said many Sarawak-based oil palm plantation players, as new entrants with poor FFB yields, would be hit harder this year, given the bearish CPO price, high COP and the various taxes imposed on them such as the windfall tax.
Last week, seven major Sarawak oil palm companies appealed to the Government to waive the windfall tax or raise the CPO threshold price to RM3,000 per tonne from RM2,000 for calculating the windfall tax.
The Government has imposed a windfall tax on CPO sales at above RM2,000 per tonne, with a 15% tax applicable to plantations in mainland Malaysia, and a 7.5% tax for those in east Malaysia.
Ta Ann Holdings Bhd, a giant timber group with heavy investments in oil palm plantations, is worried.
Managing director Datuk Wong Kuo Hea said: “Seasoned Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah planters have enough hectarage of profitable harvesting area to be financially self dependent.
“Sarawak, as a late entrant, has the lowest area planted with only 20% that can contribute to profit. We are also not financially self-sufficient in our operation and still require huge injection of funds into our new plantations.”
Analysts have projected that many Sarawak planters would continue to make losses from the first to fifth year of harvesting but would start to make profit only in year six if the CPO price was at RM1,700 per tonne.
Top listed Sarawak-based planters include Ta Ann, Sarawak Plantations Bhd, Rimbunan Sawit Bhd, Sarawak Oil Palm Bhd and WTK Holdings Bhd.
23-10-2008:- Indonesia may cut palm base price for November
根据印尼报纸Kompas透露，NOVEMBER 2008的CPO出口税很可能下降到2.5%
这对东马来说是分外眼红的，这是由于他们还需要缴付5-7.5%的州税收，和MPOB的研究费用。
东西马已不必再付暴利税。
最近政府说他们取消暴利税，是和你玩玩的，这是因为CPO早就跌破RM2000，不必给了，还要他们讲？
如果种植业者想寻求突破，不妨考虑以有机肥和微生物肥为主，化肥为铺。蚯蚓粪，潜力是不错的，只是不懂价钱而已。
from theedgedaily
JAKARTA: Indonesia, the world’s biggest producer of palm oil, plans to cut the November base price used to calculate the export tax in a bid to boost shipments of the commodity, Trade Minister Mari Pangestu said.
Palm oil producers have asked the government to cut the base price to below the average global price for the past month, she said in an interview in Jakarta late Tuesday. Indonesia reviews the palm oil export tax and its base price monthly.
Producers “are asking us to lower it even further” because world prices are falling while their costs have risen, she said. Lowering the base price will encourage exports by reducing the amount of tax on shipments, she said. — Bloomberg
这对东马来说是分外眼红的，这是由于他们还需要缴付5-7.5%的州税收，和MPOB的研究费用。
东西马已不必再付暴利税。
最近政府说他们取消暴利税，是和你玩玩的，这是因为CPO早就跌破RM2000，不必给了，还要他们讲？
如果种植业者想寻求突破，不妨考虑以有机肥和微生物肥为主，化肥为铺。蚯蚓粪，潜力是不错的，只是不懂价钱而已。
from theedgedaily
JAKARTA: Indonesia, the world’s biggest producer of palm oil, plans to cut the November base price used to calculate the export tax in a bid to boost shipments of the commodity, Trade Minister Mari Pangestu said.
Palm oil producers have asked the government to cut the base price to below the average global price for the past month, she said in an interview in Jakarta late Tuesday. Indonesia reviews the palm oil export tax and its base price monthly.
Producers “are asking us to lower it even further” because world prices are falling while their costs have risen, she said. Lowering the base price will encourage exports by reducing the amount of tax on shipments, she said. — Bloomberg
18 October 2008
投资者应该避开一些种植股，尤其是东马。
CPO高涨的时候，我们看不到有什么公司是不好的，因为全都赚钱了。这虚假荣景很快的就会破灭。我列出一些例子，但不具名是什么公司（他是东马普遍现象，西马较少见）。
1.软土经营
这几年不少软地被开垦成油棕园，那些已收割的园地打击不会太大，但刚刚开辟的就不能收回了，软地的好处是便宜，坏处是油棕寿命短，产量不理想。如今格局已变，软地经营不再是包赚的。
行情大好时，我们无视环保课题，陪他们一起疯，但行情不好时，这些股票是不能抱的。
2.以RM1000-RM2000每公顷买入的native land
这些土地来路不明，cpo RM2200以上时，你可以陪他们疯，但现在是他们痛宰你的时候，你还不跑？不是能不能breakeven的问题，而是考验人性的时候。
3.油棕年老化
老树耗肥，量少。
以前30岁有赚，现在就该砍了。
1.软土经营
这几年不少软地被开垦成油棕园，那些已收割的园地打击不会太大，但刚刚开辟的就不能收回了，软地的好处是便宜，坏处是油棕寿命短，产量不理想。如今格局已变，软地经营不再是包赚的。
行情大好时，我们无视环保课题，陪他们一起疯，但行情不好时，这些股票是不能抱的。
2.以RM1000-RM2000每公顷买入的native land
这些土地来路不明，cpo RM2200以上时，你可以陪他们疯，但现在是他们痛宰你的时候，你还不跑？不是能不能breakeven的问题，而是考验人性的时候。
3.油棕年老化
老树耗肥，量少。
以前30岁有赚，现在就该砍了。
15 October 2008
化肥市场概述(不时整理中)
陆陆续续收集了有关化肥的资料，但是没时间整理出一套完整的系统，如果要求这么严格，那么永远都不能写blog了，因此，只好从简了。
以下资料来源太广，因此不注明出处，其中不少自己的描述，不排除有错处。
氮肥
氮肥的全球供应来源分布很广，这是因为氮是构成自然界的重要元素，虽然氮随处可见(空气中)，但是植物并不能吸收**，城市化的影响，土壤氮流失很快，因此工业生产氮肥的需求是迫切的。
**除了少数具有固氮作用(Nitrogen fixation)的农作物。
在所有氮肥产品中，尿素（UREA，CO(NH2)2）是氮含量（46%）最高的化肥，因此尿素的市场价格主导了氮肥市场。
被利用在工业炸药的硝酸铵含氮元素为35%（简称硝铵，NH4NO3），也是主要的氮肥，他和尿素价格有同步系数。
氨（NH3，阿摩尼亚），形态多变，溶于水的氨是氨水（铵，NH4+），低温处理的氨是液氨（液态，无水氨），无论他怎么复杂，总括一句就是他是氮肥原料。阿摩尼亚和二氧化碳在加热情况下可生产出尿素，值得一提的是，尿素的生产成本的50%-70%来自能源，不管是用电力，天然气，或煤炭，这些热能成本是的不能避免的。因此，氮肥的价格是和原油同步的，但是原油暴跌并不会马上影响氮肥走势，这是因为商家避免亏损。
以马化学（ccm）为例，马化学的阿摩尼亚是从印尼进口的。
较普遍期货代号
UREA,46%nitrogen
UAN,32%nitrogen
UREA价格可参考印度Yuzhnyy和Baltic港口价格
2008-oct-16记录
2008-oct-9, urea weekly价格是 520美元/mt，这与7.8.9月价格位于760.770.706，是严重下跌的。这个10月是多事之秋，从事氮肥生产的Terra Industries Inc股价也是无法幸免，不到一个月时间股价从44美元掉到了19美元。
2008-oct-16, urea weekly价格是 345美元，进一步急剧下滑。
UREA价格随着油价锐减了一半，可以预见，零售商为了避免亏损不愿减低售价，购买者等待更便宜的价格买入。这些问题本可以在期货市场得到解决，但期货市场并不活络。 （石油期货是另一途径）。 如果种植者lock了太多或太久的UREA，可说是输家。
磷肥
磷肥主要分成两类，一类是天然的鸟粪和动物骨骼。一类是化学磷肥。
中国是磷肥产量第一的国家，其次是美国。
2007年是中国磷肥市场重要的一年，该年成为净出口国，
最早的磷肥是过磷酸钙，现已逐渐被磷酸铵（氮磷复合肥，分成一铵，二铵，三铵）和重过磷酸钙（TSP)等高浓度磷肥取代。
磷肥期货种类为TSP和DAP（磷酸二铵，复合肥）。
磷肥的原料是磷矿。
有85％以上的磷矿用于磷肥生产。磷矿的品位按P2O5含量(％）表示，通常为29～38；近年来世界商品磷矿的平均品位为32.5～32.7。美国和其他一些国家，磷矿的品位以磷酸三钙〔Ca3(PO4)2〕的含量表示。磷矿的质量以品位和所含杂质矿物的种类、数量来进行评价。杂质含量以氧化铁、氧化铝、氧化镁、氟、氯、氧化钠、氧化钾、二氧化磷、三氧化硫、二氧化硅、有机物等的百分含量表示。磷矿的用途不同，对其质量要求也不一致（见磷肥、磷酸、过磷酸钙等）。
世界磷矿分布很广，储量约为130Gt（1Gt=10亿吨）。中国磷矿储量在10Gt以上，主要分布在云南、贵州、四川、湖北和湖南五省。1981年世界磷矿产量为138Mt(实物)，生产国有30多个，主要是美国、苏联和摩洛哥，约占总产量的79％，中国近年来的磷矿产量约为10Mt（折算成30％P2O5）。
国际上通常将磷矿中的P2O5含量大于30％称为富矿，P2O5含量小于12％称为贫矿。
人类社会的生存和发展离不开磷，因为农业生产需要大量的磷肥。可是，现已探明的磷储量仅够人类使用不足100年，我国(中国）磷矿的开采只有70年！更让人担忧的是，磷资源不仅十分有限，而且单向流动、不可再生。当人类跨入21世纪门槛时，不得不面对正在发生的磷危机，这绝非耸人听闻。
组分和结构
磷矿物按其成矿起源可分为沉积岩、变质岩和火成岩。目前，工业开采的约85％是海相沉积磷矿，其余主要为火成岩磷矿。鸟粪层磷矿是鸟粪的直接或间接的堆积物矿化而成，储量不大，但目前在世界磷矿年产量中约占2％，火成岩或变质岩磷矿品位一般比较低，但可选性好，通过浮选，可得到品位很高的精矿。目前工业开采的苏联科拉磷矿，南非帕拉博瓦磷矿，巴西雅库皮兰加磷矿，中国锦屏磷矿（见彩图）和黄麦岭磷矿等都属于火成岩磷矿，其产量约占总产量的16％。海相沉积磷矿的品位高低不一，可选性差别也很大，目前工业开采的是地理位置好、交通运输方便、采矿和富集费用比较低的那部分资源。美国佛罗里达磷矿和摩洛哥磷矿是世界著名的磷矿生产基地，中国云南滇池磷矿、贵州开阳磷矿和湖北荆襄磷矿都属于海相沉积磷矿，也有相当大的生产规模。
磷肥最普遍的期货代号是TSP， Phosphate rock 和DAP，DAP是复合肥因此不在这里说明。
TSP 的含量（折纯）是46%的P。
钾肥
世界钾盐资源极为丰富，但资源分布极不均衡，加拿大、俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、德国的合计储量和基础储量分别占世界总量的92%和81%，这几个国家主导了世界钾肥市场。加拿大钾肥（PotashCorp）公司拥有全球剩余产能的72%，这些寡头有自己的一套不为人知的库存机制，因此钾肥的价格是很独立的。
除了上述国家，其他生产钾肥的地区来自死海和中国盐湖。
钾肥的代表物是氯化钾（Potassium chloride，Muriate of Potash，KCI）。
CCM进口钾肥 from jordan（约旦）,Germany and Russia。
HAPSENG进口钾肥 from CANADA.
氯化钾价格可参考温哥华港口价格。
2008-oct-17记录
十月上旬和中旬，国际氯化钾价格上涨。
【2008-aug-19 edit】
全球最大的钾肥公司potash corp， 股价在这段商品热中涨了16倍，今次的危机让他的股价在几个月内缩水了70%(240 to 74计），但还是高位（相比2004年的12元）。
这公司的现金流不成问题，比较关注的是他们是否滥用了股票回购，不顾短期债务的压迫。
全世界的钾肥有70%控制在他们手上，因此他们的一举一动是令人关注的，如果连玉米，黄豆都不能达到盈利，那么potash必会向现实妥协，降低售价。
【end of 2008-aug-19 edit】
复合肥
DAP， diammonium phosphate， (NH4)2HPO4。
磷酸二铵又称磷酸氢二铵（DAP），是含氮磷两种营养成分的复合肥。
磷酸一铵，二铵，三铵，是同性质的。
一般上生产一吨DAP需要约0.45吨硫磺和约2.2吨磷矿石，另加阿摩尼亚。
硫磺在DAP成本中占比已达6成。
DAP的标准含量是18%nitrogen和46%phosphate，不过不是绝对值，各地规格不一。
DAP价格比TSP稍贵15-30%，这是因为DAP和TSP的制作非常接近。
制作DAP复合肥最需考虑的问题是供应和原料成本，上述的原料缺一不可，硫磺和阿摩尼亚常常出现在磷矿产地的港口，价格差异也不同。
TSP的生产问题不比DAP少。
硫磺来自硫铁矿，也来自石油和天然气。
DAP价格可参考美国坦帕港口价格。
2008-10-17记录
2008-10-16的DAP价格是970美元，这也是说，DAP价格自7月份的1185美元，下跌了19%
MAP,
11% nitrogen和52% phosphate ，为标准规格。
虽然MAP在生产成本、制作过程、运输成本、库存成本都比DAP占优，但他的参考价值和市场份额没有DAP明显。
补充
中国对肥料出口征收超过100%的税收，如果在年尾“重新检讨”，势必让肥料市场重新洗牌，但相信改变不会太大。
中国氮磷刚好处于自给自足的水平，世界磷生产集中在北美。
中国需入口硫磺以达到复合肥的平衡。
南亚是尿素生产集中地。
“P”是以P2O5计量，上述P折纯量皆是P2O5。
油棕
报告常常不具名肥料的“实物”和“折纯”，也没有透露NPK的折纯用量，因此我们看不懂分析员讲什么。
举个例子，分析员说IOI的施肥成本是RM1200每亩(行业总平均RM1600)，也就是一棵树每年需花费RM20, 这相等于每公斤肥料价格是RM2.5
这只是一个总值，没有细分清楚，因此我们没有办法分析。
如果是15-15-15，把NPK折纯量拆解，答案可能接近。
【2008-aug-18 edit】
也就是根据1)尿素氮折纯量2)氯化钾钾折纯量3）TSP的P2O5折纯量，进行计算,从中找出目前的施肥成本，如果跟进分析报导，是不明确的。
如果肥料继续挤压FFB售价，那么没有谈判能力的小园主必将面对亏损，这比一两年前的情况更糟，因为成本是回不到过去的。
这回的经济洗牌不只要洗金融，恐怕连油棕都要洗净。两国的农业.原产部长无能，没有落实方案，大不了我们也搞个生柴战略储备，至少可以把危机压个十年。
【end of 2008-aug-18 edit】
以下资料来源太广，因此不注明出处，其中不少自己的描述，不排除有错处。
氮肥
氮肥的全球供应来源分布很广，这是因为氮是构成自然界的重要元素，虽然氮随处可见(空气中)，但是植物并不能吸收**，城市化的影响，土壤氮流失很快，因此工业生产氮肥的需求是迫切的。
**除了少数具有固氮作用(Nitrogen fixation)的农作物。
在所有氮肥产品中，尿素（UREA，CO(NH2)2）是氮含量（46%）最高的化肥，因此尿素的市场价格主导了氮肥市场。
被利用在工业炸药的硝酸铵含氮元素为35%（简称硝铵，NH4NO3），也是主要的氮肥，他和尿素价格有同步系数。
氨（NH3，阿摩尼亚），形态多变，溶于水的氨是氨水（铵，NH4+），低温处理的氨是液氨（液态，无水氨），无论他怎么复杂，总括一句就是他是氮肥原料。阿摩尼亚和二氧化碳在加热情况下可生产出尿素，值得一提的是，尿素的生产成本的50%-70%来自能源，不管是用电力，天然气，或煤炭，这些热能成本是的不能避免的。因此，氮肥的价格是和原油同步的，但是原油暴跌并不会马上影响氮肥走势，这是因为商家避免亏损。
以马化学（ccm）为例，马化学的阿摩尼亚是从印尼进口的。
较普遍期货代号
UREA,46%nitrogen
UAN,32%nitrogen
UREA价格可参考印度Yuzhnyy和Baltic港口价格
2008-oct-16记录
2008-oct-9, urea weekly价格是 520美元/mt，这与7.8.9月价格位于760.770.706，是严重下跌的。这个10月是多事之秋，从事氮肥生产的Terra Industries Inc股价也是无法幸免，不到一个月时间股价从44美元掉到了19美元。
2008-oct-16, urea weekly价格是 345美元，进一步急剧下滑。
UREA价格随着油价锐减了一半，可以预见，零售商为了避免亏损不愿减低售价，购买者等待更便宜的价格买入。这些问题本可以在期货市场得到解决，但期货市场并不活络。 （石油期货是另一途径）。 如果种植者lock了太多或太久的UREA，可说是输家。
磷肥
磷肥主要分成两类，一类是天然的鸟粪和动物骨骼。一类是化学磷肥。
中国是磷肥产量第一的国家，其次是美国。
2007年是中国磷肥市场重要的一年，该年成为净出口国，
最早的磷肥是过磷酸钙，现已逐渐被磷酸铵（氮磷复合肥，分成一铵，二铵，三铵）和重过磷酸钙（TSP)等高浓度磷肥取代。
磷肥期货种类为TSP和DAP（磷酸二铵，复合肥）。
磷肥的原料是磷矿。
有85％以上的磷矿用于磷肥生产。磷矿的品位按P2O5含量(％）表示，通常为29～38；近年来世界商品磷矿的平均品位为32.5～32.7。美国和其他一些国家，磷矿的品位以磷酸三钙〔Ca3(PO4)2〕的含量表示。磷矿的质量以品位和所含杂质矿物的种类、数量来进行评价。杂质含量以氧化铁、氧化铝、氧化镁、氟、氯、氧化钠、氧化钾、二氧化磷、三氧化硫、二氧化硅、有机物等的百分含量表示。磷矿的用途不同，对其质量要求也不一致（见磷肥、磷酸、过磷酸钙等）。
世界磷矿分布很广，储量约为130Gt（1Gt=10亿吨）。中国磷矿储量在10Gt以上，主要分布在云南、贵州、四川、湖北和湖南五省。1981年世界磷矿产量为138Mt(实物)，生产国有30多个，主要是美国、苏联和摩洛哥，约占总产量的79％，中国近年来的磷矿产量约为10Mt（折算成30％P2O5）。
国际上通常将磷矿中的P2O5含量大于30％称为富矿，P2O5含量小于12％称为贫矿。
人类社会的生存和发展离不开磷，因为农业生产需要大量的磷肥。可是，现已探明的磷储量仅够人类使用不足100年，我国(中国）磷矿的开采只有70年！更让人担忧的是，磷资源不仅十分有限，而且单向流动、不可再生。当人类跨入21世纪门槛时，不得不面对正在发生的磷危机，这绝非耸人听闻。
组分和结构
磷矿物按其成矿起源可分为沉积岩、变质岩和火成岩。目前，工业开采的约85％是海相沉积磷矿，其余主要为火成岩磷矿。鸟粪层磷矿是鸟粪的直接或间接的堆积物矿化而成，储量不大，但目前在世界磷矿年产量中约占2％，火成岩或变质岩磷矿品位一般比较低，但可选性好，通过浮选，可得到品位很高的精矿。目前工业开采的苏联科拉磷矿，南非帕拉博瓦磷矿，巴西雅库皮兰加磷矿，中国锦屏磷矿（见彩图）和黄麦岭磷矿等都属于火成岩磷矿，其产量约占总产量的16％。海相沉积磷矿的品位高低不一，可选性差别也很大，目前工业开采的是地理位置好、交通运输方便、采矿和富集费用比较低的那部分资源。美国佛罗里达磷矿和摩洛哥磷矿是世界著名的磷矿生产基地，中国云南滇池磷矿、贵州开阳磷矿和湖北荆襄磷矿都属于海相沉积磷矿，也有相当大的生产规模。
磷肥最普遍的期货代号是TSP， Phosphate rock 和DAP，DAP是复合肥因此不在这里说明。
TSP 的含量（折纯）是46%的P。
钾肥
世界钾盐资源极为丰富，但资源分布极不均衡，加拿大、俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、德国的合计储量和基础储量分别占世界总量的92%和81%，这几个国家主导了世界钾肥市场。加拿大钾肥（PotashCorp）公司拥有全球剩余产能的72%，这些寡头有自己的一套不为人知的库存机制，因此钾肥的价格是很独立的。
除了上述国家，其他生产钾肥的地区来自死海和中国盐湖。
钾肥的代表物是氯化钾（Potassium chloride，Muriate of Potash，KCI）。
CCM进口钾肥 from jordan（约旦）,Germany and Russia。
HAPSENG进口钾肥 from CANADA.
氯化钾价格可参考温哥华港口价格。
2008-oct-17记录
十月上旬和中旬，国际氯化钾价格上涨。
【2008-aug-19 edit】
全球最大的钾肥公司potash corp， 股价在这段商品热中涨了16倍，今次的危机让他的股价在几个月内缩水了70%(240 to 74计），但还是高位（相比2004年的12元）。
这公司的现金流不成问题，比较关注的是他们是否滥用了股票回购，不顾短期债务的压迫。
全世界的钾肥有70%控制在他们手上，因此他们的一举一动是令人关注的，如果连玉米，黄豆都不能达到盈利，那么potash必会向现实妥协，降低售价。
【end of 2008-aug-19 edit】
复合肥
DAP， diammonium phosphate， (NH4)2HPO4。
磷酸二铵又称磷酸氢二铵（DAP），是含氮磷两种营养成分的复合肥。
磷酸一铵，二铵，三铵，是同性质的。
一般上生产一吨DAP需要约0.45吨硫磺和约2.2吨磷矿石，另加阿摩尼亚。
硫磺在DAP成本中占比已达6成。
DAP的标准含量是18%nitrogen和46%phosphate，不过不是绝对值，各地规格不一。
DAP价格比TSP稍贵15-30%，这是因为DAP和TSP的制作非常接近。
制作DAP复合肥最需考虑的问题是供应和原料成本，上述的原料缺一不可，硫磺和阿摩尼亚常常出现在磷矿产地的港口，价格差异也不同。
TSP的生产问题不比DAP少。
硫磺来自硫铁矿，也来自石油和天然气。
DAP价格可参考美国坦帕港口价格。
2008-10-17记录
2008-10-16的DAP价格是970美元，这也是说，DAP价格自7月份的1185美元，下跌了19%
MAP,
11% nitrogen和52% phosphate ，为标准规格。
虽然MAP在生产成本、制作过程、运输成本、库存成本都比DAP占优，但他的参考价值和市场份额没有DAP明显。
补充
中国对肥料出口征收超过100%的税收，如果在年尾“重新检讨”，势必让肥料市场重新洗牌，但相信改变不会太大。
中国氮磷刚好处于自给自足的水平，世界磷生产集中在北美。
中国需入口硫磺以达到复合肥的平衡。
南亚是尿素生产集中地。
“P”是以P2O5计量，上述P折纯量皆是P2O5。
油棕
报告常常不具名肥料的“实物”和“折纯”，也没有透露NPK的折纯用量，因此我们看不懂分析员讲什么。
举个例子，分析员说IOI的施肥成本是RM1200每亩(行业总平均RM1600)，也就是一棵树每年需花费RM20, 这相等于每公斤肥料价格是RM2.5
这只是一个总值，没有细分清楚，因此我们没有办法分析。
如果是15-15-15，把NPK折纯量拆解，答案可能接近。
【2008-aug-18 edit】
也就是根据1)尿素氮折纯量2)氯化钾钾折纯量3）TSP的P2O5折纯量，进行计算,从中找出目前的施肥成本，如果跟进分析报导，是不明确的。
如果肥料继续挤压FFB售价，那么没有谈判能力的小园主必将面对亏损，这比一两年前的情况更糟，因为成本是回不到过去的。
这回的经济洗牌不只要洗金融，恐怕连油棕都要洗净。两国的农业.原产部长无能，没有落实方案，大不了我们也搞个生柴战略储备，至少可以把危机压个十年。
【end of 2008-aug-18 edit】
13 October 2008
油棕园饲养动物
不少的东马棕油园都有在饲养牛羊，种植黄梨和水果。
这不只是创造了盈利，同时也创造了生物链。
牛羊提供有机肥(粪便)，棕果仁可当饲料，野草被吃可省去除草剂的开销。
除此以外果树可以帮助招引蜜蜂成居，这对油棕的结果过程中很有补助作用。
但环保份子很可能会吹毛求疵的，因为牛羊也是造成温室效应的祸源，而且，牛羊和油棕配搭能不能完成一个生物循环还是个未知。但这总该比化肥和除草剂的潜在破坏力轻微吧？我不知道。
**生物循环和生物链是不同的。
写blog要顾到各界的观感，真不够意思。国际环保组织对我来说，是寡头用来压制东方的刑具，无疑是＂你被利用了＂的傀儡，RSPO就是一个例子。自己不长进也该负起责任。
根据有关当局提供的现金流示例，400公顷可以饲养100头牛，死亡率为15%。
初始资金是RM175000，往后的10年日常开销是RM320000，其中费用最高的是人工，你要聘请两个人，每个人每个月薪金是700-1150递增。
牛肉和牛只收入RM630000.
除草剂省下费用RM160000。
假设初始资金不是来自借贷，无利息负担的情况，10年的时间不考虑NPV，可以得到RM295000的利益。
这笔数目对plantation来说是微不足道的，但如果是大型计划就不能小觑了。
这不只是创造了盈利，同时也创造了生物链。
牛羊提供有机肥(粪便)，棕果仁可当饲料，野草被吃可省去除草剂的开销。
除此以外果树可以帮助招引蜜蜂成居，这对油棕的结果过程中很有补助作用。
但环保份子很可能会吹毛求疵的，因为牛羊也是造成温室效应的祸源，而且，牛羊和油棕配搭能不能完成一个生物循环还是个未知。但这总该比化肥和除草剂的潜在破坏力轻微吧？我不知道。
**生物循环和生物链是不同的。
写blog要顾到各界的观感，真不够意思。国际环保组织对我来说，是寡头用来压制东方的刑具，无疑是＂你被利用了＂的傀儡，RSPO就是一个例子。自己不长进也该负起责任。
根据有关当局提供的现金流示例，400公顷可以饲养100头牛，死亡率为15%。
初始资金是RM175000，往后的10年日常开销是RM320000，其中费用最高的是人工，你要聘请两个人，每个人每个月薪金是700-1150递增。
牛肉和牛只收入RM630000.
除草剂省下费用RM160000。
假设初始资金不是来自借贷，无利息负担的情况，10年的时间不考虑NPV，可以得到RM295000的利益。
这笔数目对plantation来说是微不足道的，但如果是大型计划就不能小觑了。
10 October 2008
mpob statistic
| export weight metric ton | export value RM million | production metric ton | stock level metric ton | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07JAN | 960348 | 1814.19 | 1115340 | 1474573 |
| FEB | 812409 | 1561.84 | 989681 | 1494377 |
| MAR | 1058033 | 2082.33 | 1081230 | 1337509 |
| APR | 1122963 | 2303.67 | 1125726 | 1190029 |
| MAY | 1156439 | 2582.96 | 1201255 | 1117603 |
| JUN | 948012 | 2264.48 | 1166184 | 1200010 |
| JULY | 1110846 | 2839.70 | 1356956 | 1307332 |
| AUG | 1241257 | 3264.92 | 1559362 | 1452097 |
| SEP | 1395025 | 3673.19 | 1602065 | 1461530 |
| OCT | 1335010 | 3477.25 | 1579809 | 1558325 |
| NOV | 1241449 | 3409.41 | 1650004 | 1810535 |
| DEC | 1365031 | 3912.78 | 1396134 | 1682267 |
| total | 13746822 | 33186.72 | 15823746 | |
| 08JAN | 1040983 | 3183.85 | 1424244 | 1872780 |
| FEB | 1065151 | 3375.25 | 1227969 | 1927549 |
| MAR | 1244033 | 4281.39 | 1294710 | 1824453 |
| APR | 1259884 | 4546.15 | 1327591 | 1789799 |
| MAY | 1200490 | 4335.46 | 1457878 | 1913360 |
| JUN | 1120654 | 4194.70 | 1468921 | 2033914 |
| JULY | 1403570 | 5243.99 | 1560215 | 1977397 |
| AUG | 1467797 | 5029.01 | 1600214 | 1848788 |
| SEP | 1296746 | 4043.55 | 1579442 | 1951417 |
| OCT | 1335577 | 3526.05 | 1652071 | 2091353 |
| NOV | 1362886 | 3019.94 | 1658416 | 2265754 |
| DEC | 1614720 | 3238.25 | 1482768 | 1994681 |
| total | 15412512 | 65194.28 | 17734439 | |
| 09JAN | 1353726 | 2733.03 | 1330195 | 1829357 |
| FEB | 1257482 | 2606.55 | 1187381 | 1565532 |
| MAR | 1260380 | 2734.29 | 1275736 | 1365615 |
| APR | 1187170 | 2625.41 | 1286059 | 1292692 |
| MAY | 1220513 | 3118.40 | 1395275 | 1371238 |
| JUN | 1279701 | 3346.18 | 1445937 | 1408317 |
| JUL | 1449006 | 3530.51 | 1489609 | 1328440 |
| AUG | 1316466 | 3148.51 | 1494764 | 1415109 |
| SEP | 1312056 | 3203.34 | 1556866 | 1578255 |
| OCT | 1478317 | 3450.7 | 1985055 | 1974462 |
| NOV | 1499851 | 3485.03 | 1595592 | 1934613 |
| DEC | 1209140 | 2846.88 | 1520063 | 2238717 |
| total | 15865529 | 36906.30 | 17562532 | |
| 10JAN | 1461731 | 3651.74 | 1321043 | 2000656 |
| FEB | 1294915 | 3324.96 | 1275822 | 1789194 |
| MAR | 1393999 | 3669.09 | 1387234 | 1654967 |
| APR | 1285467 | 3303.28 | 1306228 | 1622580 |
| MAY | 1362056 | 3520.42 | 1385424 | 1562323 |
| JUN | 1441172 | 3736.54 | 1420062 | 1451434 |
| JUL | 1469768 | 3741.67 | 1518753 | 1405740 |
| JUL | 1469989 | 3741.67 | 1518753 | 1405740 |
| AUG | 1211326 | 3154.19 | 1605662 | 1723262 |
| SEP | 1467705 | 3916.46 | 1562912 | 1708101 |
| export weight metric ton | export value RM million | production metric ton | stock level metric ton |
the figure may vary accordingly on timely amendment by MPOB.
any negligence or omission of my arrangement is at your own peril.
all trueness is subject to MPOB announcement.
Indonesia's 2009 palm oil biodiesel use seen
Posted by Palm Oil HQ
Source: http://news.alibaba.com
Added 1 day 3 hours ago - JAKARTA, Oct 8 - Indonesia may consume 1 million to 1.2 million tonnes of biodiesel using palm oil as feed stock in 2009, following the introduction of a mandatory biofuel policy, a government official said on Wednesday.
The resource-rich nation has been pushing for the use of biofuels to cut the use of costly petroleum products and to help ensure the survival of its fledgling biodiesel industry.
Last month, the government issued a ministerial decree that makes the use of biofuel mandatory from 2009. [ID:nJAK127091]
"That will need crude palm oil supply of about 1.2 to 1.5 million tonnes," Bayu Krisnamurthi, deputy to the chief economic minister, told reporters. He said biodiesel use in 2010 may double the amount consumed in 2009 due to the increase in the mandatory blend.
Krisnamurthi also said the biodiesel use may reduce the portion of the country's palm oil production destined for export, starting from next year.
Indonesia's combined capacity for biofuel using palm oil as a feedstock is 2 million kilolitres per year, but it is running at 20 percent of capacity, data from the national biofuel development team shows.
For biodiesel, the decree states the transport sector must use a blend of 1 percent palm-based biodiesel and 99 percent diesel oil, while industry and power plants must use a blend of 2.5 percent and 0.25 percent palm-based biodiesel respectively.
For bioethanol, the use of a 1-5 percent blend of bioethanol and 99-95 percent of gasoline for transportation will become mandatory in 2009.
Industry will have to use a 5 percent blend of bioethanol -- which is made from cane molasses and cassava feedstock -- and 95 percent gasoline next year, increasing to 7 percent by 2010.
With the introduction of the mandatory policy, biodiesel capacity would rise to 5 million kilolitres a year by 2010, the government said recently, although it could also push up the price of palm oil.
Palm oil futures have tumbled around 40 percent since the start of the year, and have fallen more than half since hitting a record high of 4,486 ringgit a tonne in March.
Indonesia produced 17.18 million tonnes of crude palm oil in 2007, of which 3.8 million tonnes was used in the domestic market, mostly for food. Production this year is expected to rise to 18.6 million tonnes.
The grain and oilseed-based biofuel sector has come under attack from green groups for accelerating the destruction of forests, while some analysts blame it for contributing to soaring world food prices by diverting crops that could be used for food, but biofuel industry officials deny this.
Indonesia biofuel policy to reduce palm oil exports
Posted by Palm Oil HQ
Source: http://www.business-standard.com
Added 1 day 10 hours ago
Exports of palm oil from Indonesia, the largest producer, may decline by as much as 1.5 million metric tonnes a year after the nation made the use of renewable energy mandatory, a government official said.
“In relation to the mandatory policy for bio-energy issued last month, we see that the use of agricultural products for alternative energy will increase,” Bayu Krisnamurthi, a deputy to Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Boediono, said on Wednesday in Jakarta. “This will cut our exports” of palm oil.
A fall in supplies from Indonesia, the top producer of the tropical oil, may help support prices that slumped to a two-year low this week on concern slowing global economic growth will dent demand for commodities.
The mandate is “positive for the week” for palm oil prices, said Tan Ting Min, a plantation analyst at Credit Suisse Group in Kuala Lumpur.
Indonesia said September 26 diesel used for transportation must have minimum 1 per cent biodiesel starting this month. The mix was set at 2.5 per cent for industrial users. The nation also mandated 1 per cent bio-ethanol mix for cars using subsidised fuel starting 2009, while industries using gasoline must ensure 5 per cent of the fuel has bioethanol.
Fossil Fuels: Palm oil, with the highest calorific value of any vegetable oil, can be added to diesel to stretch supplies of fossil fuels. Brazil mandates the use of ethanol, made from sugar cane, in cars while the US uses corn to make ethanol.
Indonesia’s biofuel industry can produce between 1.3 million tonnes to 1.5 million tonnes annually, said Krisnamurthi. Capacity may double to 3 million tonnes by 2010, he said.
The country’s palm oil output will be more than 19 million tonnes next year and exceed 20 million in 2010, he added. Food and chemicals industry may use 4.5 million tonnes this year and next, and 5 million tonnes in 2010, Krisnamurthi said.
Palm oil for December delivery is trading at 1,819 ringgit ($520) a ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange at 4:14 pm local time. Prices have dived 60 per cent from a peak in March.
Futures may average 2,900 ringgit a tonne in 2009, compared with 3,226 ringgit so far this year, Credit Suisse’s Tan said.
Source: http://news.alibaba.com
Added 1 day 3 hours ago - JAKARTA, Oct 8 - Indonesia may consume 1 million to 1.2 million tonnes of biodiesel using palm oil as feed stock in 2009, following the introduction of a mandatory biofuel policy, a government official said on Wednesday.
The resource-rich nation has been pushing for the use of biofuels to cut the use of costly petroleum products and to help ensure the survival of its fledgling biodiesel industry.
Last month, the government issued a ministerial decree that makes the use of biofuel mandatory from 2009. [ID:nJAK127091]
"That will need crude palm oil supply of about 1.2 to 1.5 million tonnes," Bayu Krisnamurthi, deputy to the chief economic minister, told reporters. He said biodiesel use in 2010 may double the amount consumed in 2009 due to the increase in the mandatory blend.
Krisnamurthi also said the biodiesel use may reduce the portion of the country's palm oil production destined for export, starting from next year.
Indonesia's combined capacity for biofuel using palm oil as a feedstock is 2 million kilolitres per year, but it is running at 20 percent of capacity, data from the national biofuel development team shows.
For biodiesel, the decree states the transport sector must use a blend of 1 percent palm-based biodiesel and 99 percent diesel oil, while industry and power plants must use a blend of 2.5 percent and 0.25 percent palm-based biodiesel respectively.
For bioethanol, the use of a 1-5 percent blend of bioethanol and 99-95 percent of gasoline for transportation will become mandatory in 2009.
Industry will have to use a 5 percent blend of bioethanol -- which is made from cane molasses and cassava feedstock -- and 95 percent gasoline next year, increasing to 7 percent by 2010.
With the introduction of the mandatory policy, biodiesel capacity would rise to 5 million kilolitres a year by 2010, the government said recently, although it could also push up the price of palm oil.
Palm oil futures have tumbled around 40 percent since the start of the year, and have fallen more than half since hitting a record high of 4,486 ringgit a tonne in March.
Indonesia produced 17.18 million tonnes of crude palm oil in 2007, of which 3.8 million tonnes was used in the domestic market, mostly for food. Production this year is expected to rise to 18.6 million tonnes.
The grain and oilseed-based biofuel sector has come under attack from green groups for accelerating the destruction of forests, while some analysts blame it for contributing to soaring world food prices by diverting crops that could be used for food, but biofuel industry officials deny this.
Indonesia biofuel policy to reduce palm oil exports
Posted by Palm Oil HQ
Source: http://www.business-standard.com
Added 1 day 10 hours ago
Exports of palm oil from Indonesia, the largest producer, may decline by as much as 1.5 million metric tonnes a year after the nation made the use of renewable energy mandatory, a government official said.
“In relation to the mandatory policy for bio-energy issued last month, we see that the use of agricultural products for alternative energy will increase,” Bayu Krisnamurthi, a deputy to Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Boediono, said on Wednesday in Jakarta. “This will cut our exports” of palm oil.
A fall in supplies from Indonesia, the top producer of the tropical oil, may help support prices that slumped to a two-year low this week on concern slowing global economic growth will dent demand for commodities.
The mandate is “positive for the week” for palm oil prices, said Tan Ting Min, a plantation analyst at Credit Suisse Group in Kuala Lumpur.
Indonesia said September 26 diesel used for transportation must have minimum 1 per cent biodiesel starting this month. The mix was set at 2.5 per cent for industrial users. The nation also mandated 1 per cent bio-ethanol mix for cars using subsidised fuel starting 2009, while industries using gasoline must ensure 5 per cent of the fuel has bioethanol.
Fossil Fuels: Palm oil, with the highest calorific value of any vegetable oil, can be added to diesel to stretch supplies of fossil fuels. Brazil mandates the use of ethanol, made from sugar cane, in cars while the US uses corn to make ethanol.
Indonesia’s biofuel industry can produce between 1.3 million tonnes to 1.5 million tonnes annually, said Krisnamurthi. Capacity may double to 3 million tonnes by 2010, he said.
The country’s palm oil output will be more than 19 million tonnes next year and exceed 20 million in 2010, he added. Food and chemicals industry may use 4.5 million tonnes this year and next, and 5 million tonnes in 2010, Krisnamurthi said.
Palm oil for December delivery is trading at 1,819 ringgit ($520) a ton on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange at 4:14 pm local time. Prices have dived 60 per cent from a peak in March.
Futures may average 2,900 ringgit a tonne in 2009, compared with 3,226 ringgit so far this year, Credit Suisse’s Tan said.
08 October 2008
cpo大跌与公司股价，冲击程度各不同
categorized tree
1)
a)
b)
c)
2)
a)
b)
c) i , ii , iii
3)
a)
b)
1)冲击最大
a)大部分集中在上游的公司(high explosure to upstream)
sime,ijmplnt
b)生产成本高企的公司(low-productivity)
twsplnt
c)被捧得很高的代表性股票
虽然这类公司业务涵盖面很广，冲击很小，但暴露于当前行情，高本益比是不合理的。
ioicorp,asiatic
2)冲击中等
a)集中在中游的公司，pure miller和refiner
QL,tsh,bldplnt,kseng
其实只有QL是不受影响的，后3个(tsh,bldplnt,kseng)的种植plantation expolosure也很显著，只是程度没有pure planter高，所以就归类在这里。
sime和ijmplnt同时是planter and miller，但profit集中在planter，因此他们是pure planter。
b)提供技术和补给的公司。
虽然大跌的cpo会让planter兴致缺缺，但是过去几年的扩大生产的sunk cost是无法抽离的，也就是说还是要放肥，还是要撒农药(只是放少一点)，厂还是要维修保养，因此这些公司的冲击中等。
hapseng,harison,ccm,cbip
c)margin and productivity理想的公司
i) 生产成本低：hsplant
ii) 护盘效率高:ppb
iii) 购地便宜:sop
谨记，上述特性可以是连贯的，也可以是互相抵触的。
ppb的特性是三者皆有，hsplant护盘效率差。
3）冲击最小（/受惠）
a)集中在下游的公司
carotech,wilmar,indofood
不管是食油销售或化学工业，只要你在下游领域，就算是受惠者。
之中，只有carotech是高度集中在下游，所以他是唯一受惠者。
虽然klk,kulim,ioicorp涵盖全面，但特性不强烈(low explosure)，因此不能归类为下游集中公司。
b)高股息
chintek,sop,fareast,kmloong,umcca,kwantas.
sop重复分类。
他们贯彻的是高息策略，所以股价冲击相当小，虽然kwantas也跌了不少，却还是归类在这个特性里。
声明与建议
纯粹为作者意见，作为分享之用，也许你有更好的见解。
以上分类针对的是公司特性作出的，没有绝对性，也许你有更好的见解。
购地便宜，但如果土地贫瘠，离港口远，也不值得。
股价表现不可能和当属组合吻合，没有绝对性。例如，pbb跌不多不表示他的冲击最小的，indofood跌很多却可以是另外的原因(他在印尼上市，因地制宜)，当中的矛盾，自己调配。
本文说到carotech是唯一受惠者，不是买入建议。
股市是多变的，有时好的形象却是坏的行为，唯一受惠者也可以是股票受害者。
1)
a)
b)
c)
2)
a)
b)
c) i , ii , iii
3)
a)
b)
1)冲击最大
a)大部分集中在上游的公司(high explosure to upstream)
sime,ijmplnt
b)生产成本高企的公司(low-productivity)
twsplnt
c)被捧得很高的代表性股票
虽然这类公司业务涵盖面很广，冲击很小，但暴露于当前行情，高本益比是不合理的。
ioicorp,asiatic
2)冲击中等
a)集中在中游的公司，pure miller和refiner
QL,tsh,bldplnt,kseng
其实只有QL是不受影响的，后3个(tsh,bldplnt,kseng)的种植plantation expolosure也很显著，只是程度没有pure planter高，所以就归类在这里。
sime和ijmplnt同时是planter and miller，但profit集中在planter，因此他们是pure planter。
b)提供技术和补给的公司。
虽然大跌的cpo会让planter兴致缺缺，但是过去几年的扩大生产的sunk cost是无法抽离的，也就是说还是要放肥，还是要撒农药(只是放少一点)，厂还是要维修保养，因此这些公司的冲击中等。
hapseng,harison,ccm,cbip
c)margin and productivity理想的公司
i) 生产成本低：hsplant
ii) 护盘效率高:ppb
iii) 购地便宜:sop
谨记，上述特性可以是连贯的，也可以是互相抵触的。
ppb的特性是三者皆有，hsplant护盘效率差。
3）冲击最小（/受惠）
a)集中在下游的公司
carotech,wilmar,indofood
不管是食油销售或化学工业，只要你在下游领域，就算是受惠者。
之中，只有carotech是高度集中在下游，所以他是唯一受惠者。
虽然klk,kulim,ioicorp涵盖全面，但特性不强烈(low explosure)，因此不能归类为下游集中公司。
b)高股息
chintek,sop,fareast,kmloong,umcca,kwantas.
sop重复分类。
他们贯彻的是高息策略，所以股价冲击相当小，虽然kwantas也跌了不少，却还是归类在这个特性里。
声明与建议
纯粹为作者意见，作为分享之用，也许你有更好的见解。
以上分类针对的是公司特性作出的，没有绝对性，也许你有更好的见解。
购地便宜，但如果土地贫瘠，离港口远，也不值得。
股价表现不可能和当属组合吻合，没有绝对性。例如，pbb跌不多不表示他的冲击最小的，indofood跌很多却可以是另外的原因(他在印尼上市，因地制宜)，当中的矛盾，自己调配。
本文说到carotech是唯一受惠者，不是买入建议。
股市是多变的，有时好的形象却是坏的行为，唯一受惠者也可以是股票受害者。
06 October 2008
ioi corporation 可能停止回购了
ioicorp的回购行动向来是很积极的，只是比较特别的是2008年首半年他们回购的特别勤快。
但从9月12日开始，ioicorp已经没有再回购了，我们不经意要问为什么会在这个时候终止回购呢？股价低靡的时候不去回购，却等到cpo火热的时候回购？
虽然主要原因相信是“回购权限”即将于10月29日届满，需要在年度大会中重新表决，更新(renewal)回购权限。但是条例并无规定年度大会召开前不能回购股票。
ioicorp的传统是他们不会在7/8/9月回购股票，10/11/12次之，但今年破例了。
我们的感觉是今年ioicorp像是村子里中了瘟疫般的作逃亡状。
2008年首九个月，他们共用去了15.23亿回购股票。但在此之前的8年，他们只用了5.33亿回购。
ioicorp的回购记录。
年度表
经share spilt整理
cancellation of treasury shares共两次,最后一次是在[jan07-mar07]
季度表(最近5Q)
相信ioicorp要等到年度股东大会召开后"不久"才会重新回购。
回购和股价是没有关系的，可以想像一下，一个重病病人吃补药的后果。
P／S：本篇内容可能带有错误引导或刻意扭曲的宣传意识，但纯粹是作者个人看法。
[renew on 2008 june 2, 2pm]
但从9月12日开始，ioicorp已经没有再回购了，我们不经意要问为什么会在这个时候终止回购呢？股价低靡的时候不去回购，却等到cpo火热的时候回购？
虽然主要原因相信是“回购权限”即将于10月29日届满，需要在年度大会中重新表决，更新(renewal)回购权限。但是条例并无规定年度大会召开前不能回购股票。
ioicorp的传统是他们不会在7/8/9月回购股票，10/11/12次之，但今年破例了。
我们的感觉是今年ioicorp像是村子里中了瘟疫般的作逃亡状。
2008年首九个月，他们共用去了15.23亿回购股票。但在此之前的8年，他们只用了5.33亿回购。
ioicorp的回购记录。
年度表
| 财政年度 | 回购股票units | 成本RM | 平均成本sen |
| july 99-june 00 | 33,620,000 | 16,187,629 | 48 |
|---|---|---|---|
| july 00-june 01 | 20,515,000 | 10,015,976 | 49 |
| july 01-june 02 | 14,670,000 | 10,070,812 | 69 |
| july 02-june 03 | 114,315,000 | 111,384,000 | 97 |
| july 03-june 04 | 27,239,500 | 43,509,000 | 160 |
| july 04-june 05 | 70,071,500 | 144,124,000 | 206 |
| july 05-june 06 | 37,705,000 | 92,319,000 | 245 |
| july 06-june 07 | 27,066,000 | 105,129,000 | 388 |
| total | 345,202,000 | 532,739,417 | 154 |
cancellation of treasury shares共两次,最后一次是在[jan07-mar07]
季度表(最近5Q)
| 季 | 回购股票units | 成本RM | 平均成本sen |
|---|---|---|---|
| july 07- dec 07两季 | 没有回购。 | ||
| jan 08-march 08 | 88,619,500 | 625,046,000 | 705 |
| april 08-june 08 | 63,205,200 | 454,868,000 | 720 |
| july 08-sept 08 | 80,951,000 | 442,986,577 | 547 |
| total | 232,775,700 | 1522,900,577 | 654 |
相信ioicorp要等到年度股东大会召开后"不久"才会重新回购。
回购和股价是没有关系的，可以想像一下，一个重病病人吃补药的后果。
P／S：本篇内容可能带有错误引导或刻意扭曲的宣传意识，但纯粹是作者个人看法。
[renew on 2008 june 2, 2pm]
04 October 2008
2007&2008年印尼食油和棕油出口量和出口额
indonesia oil and fats export volume and value
source:worldbank indonesia
印尼的资讯数据很不完善，你看到的结果就是这样。虽然他们换了一个华裔女贸易部长，但只是个门面作用而已，各自为政，整体的连接是很难改进的。
言归正传，以上的数据包括了所有油类的出口数据，例如椰子油，动物油。数据的精确性是不必要的，重点是我们如何从这些数据大致找到一些扭曲现象。
今年以来出口波动那么大，原因是由出口税引起的。
出口税
上表资料不完整，看另一个。。
来自custom的figure, fixed vegetable oil(except animal fats & chemical modified),
以上是sitc code 42产品(except animal fats & chemical modified) 的出口数据，sitc code 42包括pko和椰子油。
椰子油每月平均出口额为USD million 75，出口量不详。
pko也要export tax，因此他和cpo有比例关系。
编辑不便，其余不列出了，以上两组数据已具参考性。
| Month | WEIGHT(kg) | VALUE(US$) |
| January-07 | 902186676 | 449571519 |
| February-07 | 1262509369 | 666888207 |
| March-07 | 1000457434 | 547371804 |
| April-07 | 1279335236 | 730587082 |
| May-07 | 1072652119 | 655542544 |
| June-07 | 1266577239 | 818594610 |
| July-07 | 1367324213 | 907965770 |
| August-07 | 917326071 | 674591697 |
| September-07 | 623669487 | 472871551 |
| October-07 | 2464063413 | 1893786507 |
| November-07 | 826085789 | 670703406 |
| December-07 | 2086740249 | 1738316027 |
| January-08 | 1816912779 | 1619232040 |
| February-08 | 1111303662 | 1059532248 |
| March-08 | - | 1816510550 |
| April-08 | - | 690121570 |
| May-08 | - | 1908729235 |
source:worldbank indonesia
印尼的资讯数据很不完善，你看到的结果就是这样。虽然他们换了一个华裔女贸易部长，但只是个门面作用而已，各自为政，整体的连接是很难改进的。
言归正传，以上的数据包括了所有油类的出口数据，例如椰子油，动物油。数据的精确性是不必要的，重点是我们如何从这些数据大致找到一些扭曲现象。
今年以来出口波动那么大，原因是由出口税引起的。
出口税
上表资料不完整，看另一个。。
来自custom的figure, fixed vegetable oil(except animal fats & chemical modified),
| Month | WEIGHT (1000mt) | VALUE (US$000) |
| January-07 | 707 | 328677 |
| February-07 | 1149 | 600287 |
| March-07 | 874 | 476,736 |
| April-07 | 1326 | 752274 |
| May-07 | 839 | 517297 |
| June-07 | 1209 | 795683 |
| July-07 | 1167 | 784194 |
| August-07 | 1284 | 825028 |
| September-07 | 736 | 522738 |
| October-07 | 1828 | 1410731 |
| November-07 | 766 | 625596 |
| December-07 | 1772 | 1467633 |
| January-08 | 1509 | 1352572 |
| February-08 | 1020 | 974940 |
| March-08 | 1661 | 1722854 |
| April-08 | 561 | 595342 |
| May-08 | 1457 | 1525702 |
| June-08 | 1623 | 1797543 |
| July-08 | 428 | 495909 |
以上是sitc code 42产品(except animal fats & chemical modified) 的出口数据，sitc code 42包括pko和椰子油。
椰子油每月平均出口额为USD million 75，出口量不详。
pko也要export tax，因此他和cpo有比例关系。
编辑不便，其余不列出了，以上两组数据已具参考性。
02 October 2008
国际贸易的产品分类体系
如果要知道国际贸易，那么就必须知道两个code:HS and SITC.
除了nine digits,hs code又可以写成six digits or less
15 ANIMAL OR VEGETABLE FATS, OILS & WAXES
1501 lard, other pig fat and poultry fat, rendered
1502 fats, bovine, sheep or goat, raw or rendered
1503 lard stearin/lard oil/etc not emulsified or preprd
1504 fats & oils, their fractions, fish & marine mammal
1505 wool grease & fatty substances derived therefrom
1506 animal fat & oil & reaction nesoi not chem modified
1507 soybean oil & its fractions, not chemically modified
1508 peanut oil & its fractions, not chemically modified
1509 olive oil & its fractions, not chemically modified
1510 olive-residue oil & blends (1509 & 1510) not chem mod
1511 palm oil & its fractions, not chemically modified
1512 sunflower-seed, safflower or cottonseed oil, not ch mod
1513 coconut, palm kernel or babassu oil etc, not ch mod
1514 rapeseed, colza or mustard oil etc, not chem modif
1515 fixed veg fats & oils nesoi etc, not chem modified
1516 an or veg fats & oils, hydrogen etc, not fur prep
1517 margarine, edible mixtures etc an or veg fat & oil
1518 animal/veg fats & oils chem modified, inedbl mxt etc
1519 ind monocarb fat acids, acid oil, ref, ind fat alc
1520 glycerol (glycerine), glycerol waters and lyes
1521 veg waxes nesoi, beeswax etc and spermaceti
1522 degras, residues from fatty substances/animal/veg waxs
下面cut paste来的。。。
Standard International Trade Classification
国际上为了便于对商品的统计征税时有共同的分类标准，早1950年，由联合国经济理事会发布了《国际贸易标准分类》（SITC）。
其后，世界各主要贸易国又在比利时布鲁塞尔签订了《海合作理事会商品分类目录》（CCCN），又称《市鲁塞尔海关商品分类目录）（BTN）。
CCCN与 SITC对商品分类有所不同，为了避免采用不同目录分类在关税和贸易、运输中产生分歧，在上述两个规则的基础上，海关合作理事会主持制定了《协调商品名称及编码制度》（The Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System,简称H.S.编码制度）。该制度于1988年1月1日起正式实施。
| HS code | SITC code | |
| Palm Nuts And Kernels | 120710000 | 22320000 |
| Crude Palm Oil | 151110000 | 42221000 |
| Other Palm Oil | 151190000 | 42229000 |
| Crude Oil of Palm Kernel | 151321000 | 42241000 |
| Other Palm Kernel Oil | 151329000 | 42249000 |
| RBD OIL(PO+KO) | 151620991 | |
| RDB PO+PKO olein | 151620991 same |
除了nine digits,hs code又可以写成six digits or less
15 ANIMAL OR VEGETABLE FATS, OILS & WAXES
1501 lard, other pig fat and poultry fat, rendered
1502 fats, bovine, sheep or goat, raw or rendered
1503 lard stearin/lard oil/etc not emulsified or preprd
1504 fats & oils, their fractions, fish & marine mammal
1505 wool grease & fatty substances derived therefrom
1506 animal fat & oil & reaction nesoi not chem modified
1507 soybean oil & its fractions, not chemically modified
1508 peanut oil & its fractions, not chemically modified
1509 olive oil & its fractions, not chemically modified
1510 olive-residue oil & blends (1509 & 1510) not chem mod
1511 palm oil & its fractions, not chemically modified
1512 sunflower-seed, safflower or cottonseed oil, not ch mod
1513 coconut, palm kernel or babassu oil etc, not ch mod
1514 rapeseed, colza or mustard oil etc, not chem modif
1515 fixed veg fats & oils nesoi etc, not chem modified
1516 an or veg fats & oils, hydrogen etc, not fur prep
1517 margarine, edible mixtures etc an or veg fat & oil
1518 animal/veg fats & oils chem modified, inedbl mxt etc
1519 ind monocarb fat acids, acid oil, ref, ind fat alc
1520 glycerol (glycerine), glycerol waters and lyes
1521 veg waxes nesoi, beeswax etc and spermaceti
1522 degras, residues from fatty substances/animal/veg waxs
下面cut paste来的。。。
Standard International Trade Classification
国际上为了便于对商品的统计征税时有共同的分类标准，早1950年，由联合国经济理事会发布了《国际贸易标准分类》（SITC）。
其后，世界各主要贸易国又在比利时布鲁塞尔签订了《海合作理事会商品分类目录》（CCCN），又称《市鲁塞尔海关商品分类目录）（BTN）。
CCCN与 SITC对商品分类有所不同，为了避免采用不同目录分类在关税和贸易、运输中产生分歧，在上述两个规则的基础上，海关合作理事会主持制定了《协调商品名称及编码制度》（The Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System,简称H.S.编码制度）。该制度于1988年1月1日起正式实施。
01 October 2008
为什么thgroup要被私有化？
很简单的问题，thgroup的业绩向来都不好，即使是2008年前半年，cpo行情大好也到达不了个位数本益比，那么为什么大股东还有那么多的钱收购他？
thgroup的业务领域很广，有
1.Plantation
2a. Contracting services & 2b. Construction
3.Venture capital
4.Information technology
5.Investment holding
6.Money lending
7.Biohealthcare
8.Others
8个项目里，只有plantation是赚钱的。
2a和2b亏损比是最大的，其次是5，悲观预测，这些亏损是60millions/year in FY2008，但这已包括利息成本。
这也就是说，plantation的净利必须超过整亿(扣税扣利息)才能覆盖掉亏损额，不然的话75sen per share的估值就太高了。
但是从2007年和2008年前半年的记录来看，plantation performance根本就到不了target，这是怎么了？
简单的结论，有人偷吃？
th group的种植面积是11500公顷，由于90%都在prime age，平均年产量为28mt/ha，如果以市价变卖，这些地段应该在RM350millions以上(尚且忽略他的地段是属什么title的)。但是th group并没有重估这些biological asset，因此他的帐面是缩水的。
2007年的总体行业平均售价是RM2400-RM2600 per mt cpo，但是th group的平均售价却是RM1893。
2008年首半年的总体行业平均售价是RM3400，但是th group的平均售价却是RM2822(Q1)和RM3176(Q2)。
他们的pk是spot price销售的，这是一般公司用hedging policy的普遍现象。
如果把cpo销售提高RM500，那么profit before tax就少算了RM35millions。
而且尚不包括cpo from milling selling price，如果考虑这点，折价恐怕有RM650 per mt以上。
因为局势不妙，大股东就因此趁火打劫了？
你认为Lei Lin Thai是出手大方的人吗？
thgroup的业务领域很广，有
1.Plantation
2a. Contracting services & 2b. Construction
3.Venture capital
4.Information technology
5.Investment holding
6.Money lending
7.Biohealthcare
8.Others
8个项目里，只有plantation是赚钱的。
2a和2b亏损比是最大的，其次是5，悲观预测，这些亏损是60millions/year in FY2008，但这已包括利息成本。
这也就是说，plantation的净利必须超过整亿(扣税扣利息)才能覆盖掉亏损额，不然的话75sen per share的估值就太高了。
但是从2007年和2008年前半年的记录来看，plantation performance根本就到不了target，这是怎么了？
简单的结论，有人偷吃？
th group的种植面积是11500公顷，由于90%都在prime age，平均年产量为28mt/ha，如果以市价变卖，这些地段应该在RM350millions以上(尚且忽略他的地段是属什么title的)。但是th group并没有重估这些biological asset，因此他的帐面是缩水的。
2007年的总体行业平均售价是RM2400-RM2600 per mt cpo，但是th group的平均售价却是RM1893。
2008年首半年的总体行业平均售价是RM3400，但是th group的平均售价却是RM2822(Q1)和RM3176(Q2)。
他们的pk是spot price销售的，这是一般公司用hedging policy的普遍现象。
如果把cpo销售提高RM500，那么profit before tax就少算了RM35millions。
而且尚不包括cpo from milling selling price，如果考虑这点，折价恐怕有RM650 per mt以上。
因为局势不妙，大股东就因此趁火打劫了？
你认为Lei Lin Thai是出手大方的人吗？
RM136m bid to take palm oil planter TH Group private
btimes 2008-09-30
Added 1 day 5 hours ago - The major shareholders of TH Group Bhd have made a RM136 million offer to take the plantation and construction group private. The offer, at 75 sen a share, is a 30.4 per cent premium over its last closing price of 57.5 sen.
The stock has been halted from trading since last Thursday. It will resume trade today.
It will carry out a selective capital repayment (SCR) for this purpose under which shareholders other than the major ones will get paid.
"The proposed SCR will be funded via borrowings by TH Group, including the possible issuance of private debt securities," Tung Hup Holdings Sdn Bhd, a substantial shareholder, said in a letter to the company.
Tung Hup and its related parties hold 53.26 per cent of TH Group.
As at last Thursday, TH group had a paid-up capital of RM386.55 million comprising the same number of RM1 shares. Before the SCR, it will reduce the par value of its shares to 75 sen from RM1.
"The proposed SCR offers an opportunity to the other shareholders to realise their investments in TH Group at an attractive premium above the market price," Tung Hup said.
The deal will require the approval of TH Group shareholders at a meeting, the Foreign Investment Committee, the High Court, creditors and the Securities Commission.
TH Group's net profit rose 26 per cent to RM7.1 million in the second quarter to June 30 2008 due to higher crude palm oil prices.
Revenue was up 27 per cent to RM112 million.
Shares of the Sabah-based group have been listed on Bursa Malaysia since March 1 1999.
The group has cultivated some 11,469ha of oil palm in Sabah and operates a 90-tonne palm oil mill.
TH Group also operates the NCI Cancer Hospital in Nilai, Negri Sembilan.
Added 1 day 5 hours ago - The major shareholders of TH Group Bhd have made a RM136 million offer to take the plantation and construction group private. The offer, at 75 sen a share, is a 30.4 per cent premium over its last closing price of 57.5 sen.
The stock has been halted from trading since last Thursday. It will resume trade today.
It will carry out a selective capital repayment (SCR) for this purpose under which shareholders other than the major ones will get paid.
"The proposed SCR will be funded via borrowings by TH Group, including the possible issuance of private debt securities," Tung Hup Holdings Sdn Bhd, a substantial shareholder, said in a letter to the company.
Tung Hup and its related parties hold 53.26 per cent of TH Group.
As at last Thursday, TH group had a paid-up capital of RM386.55 million comprising the same number of RM1 shares. Before the SCR, it will reduce the par value of its shares to 75 sen from RM1.
"The proposed SCR offers an opportunity to the other shareholders to realise their investments in TH Group at an attractive premium above the market price," Tung Hup said.
The deal will require the approval of TH Group shareholders at a meeting, the Foreign Investment Committee, the High Court, creditors and the Securities Commission.
TH Group's net profit rose 26 per cent to RM7.1 million in the second quarter to June 30 2008 due to higher crude palm oil prices.
Revenue was up 27 per cent to RM112 million.
Shares of the Sabah-based group have been listed on Bursa Malaysia since March 1 1999.
The group has cultivated some 11,469ha of oil palm in Sabah and operates a 90-tonne palm oil mill.
TH Group also operates the NCI Cancer Hospital in Nilai, Negri Sembilan.
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