如果你把出，入口税，暴利税，当成利率政策来看，你会发现他们是有共同性质的。
棕油和豆油的印度入口税从60%掉到0%，印尼的出口税从20%掉到0%的。也可以说，商品价格会因为制度改变，从新洗牌。
当商品越垫越高时，税务也越垫越高，津贴也越垫越高(例子是石油津贴)，当这种不平衡无法支持，泡沫因此形成，回归到原点。
23 March 2009
建议申明和买卖标准
建议申明
在此部落里，错误的买卖讯号不计其数，就以kretam为例好了，它在RM1.4时我推荐买入，它在RM0.9时我建议卖出，结果都错。如果你照我推荐操作，财产早已败光了。
但我不能道歉，因为我不想助长投资建议的责任风险，“买卖自负”的概念，早已根植在投资者心中。如果你因为“我看起来像专家而相信我”，这也是你的错误判断。
很多部落客常散步谣言而被告，败坏风气的不实报导不计其数，我承认这些都要以立法来正规。
虽然我再再申明了责任，但如果有一天我不小心错置了数据，我还是要以“破坏社会和公众利益”的罪名被提控的。但如果我的数据是引述自错误的资源，我就没有罪，因为那是资源的问题。当然我说的有点严重了，因为到目前为止，好像还没有人因这样的形式被人告。
买卖标准
当你算出一间公司的合理价时，他是不能反映在股价上的，这是很正常的。
example 1
如果cpo长期上涨了12%，plantation index上涨了20%，那么，cepat和asiatic也会发生同步效应，上涨20%的。
example 2
实际上，我没有帮助到你什么，但你会因为我建议卖出asiatic而怀疑我，会因为我建议买进cepat而感谢我。
你应该感谢的是cpo的上涨。
这也是同步效应的可恨地方，你不禁会问自己：“为什么便宜的不去追涨(catch up)贵的，难道是我的计算错误？”。说穿，catch-up effect是骗人的。
根据table2的例子，如果cepat的股价是RM0.9，asiatic的股价是RM4.5，在赢面上，你应该根据table1的base price增加asiatic，持减cepat。但通常我还是会很理性的告诉你，cepat的价格比asiatic更吸引人，因为这是我的买卖标准。除非有例外声明“同步上涨潜能”。
这种同步效应很少有例外，即使是拥有RM2现金的sbagan，他也是从RM3.5同步下跌的，他难免也要响应大市下跌。如果说他下跌到RM1.6也不奇怪（RM1.6肯定有RM1.6的因素）。
股价的形成，肯定有他特定的形成原因，很多很多(beta,company image,dividend,炒作...)，讲不完。
请注意，cepat的合理价是随意设想的。
在此部落里，错误的买卖讯号不计其数，就以kretam为例好了，它在RM1.4时我推荐买入，它在RM0.9时我建议卖出，结果都错。如果你照我推荐操作，财产早已败光了。
但我不能道歉，因为我不想助长投资建议的责任风险，“买卖自负”的概念，早已根植在投资者心中。如果你因为“我看起来像专家而相信我”，这也是你的错误判断。
很多部落客常散步谣言而被告，败坏风气的不实报导不计其数，我承认这些都要以立法来正规。
虽然我再再申明了责任，但如果有一天我不小心错置了数据，我还是要以“破坏社会和公众利益”的罪名被提控的。但如果我的数据是引述自错误的资源，我就没有罪，因为那是资源的问题。当然我说的有点严重了，因为到目前为止，好像还没有人因这样的形式被人告。
买卖标准
当你算出一间公司的合理价时，他是不能反映在股价上的，这是很正常的。
example 1
| stock | my fair price | actual price | recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|
| cepat | 1 | 0.72 | buy |
| asiatic | 3 | 4.14 | sell |
如果cpo长期上涨了12%，plantation index上涨了20%，那么，cepat和asiatic也会发生同步效应，上涨20%的。
example 2
| stock | my fair price | actual price | recommendation | your feedback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| cepat | 1.2 | 0.864 | buy | 谢谢 |
| asiatic | 3.6 | 4.968 | sell | 怀疑 |
实际上，我没有帮助到你什么，但你会因为我建议卖出asiatic而怀疑我，会因为我建议买进cepat而感谢我。
你应该感谢的是cpo的上涨。
这也是同步效应的可恨地方，你不禁会问自己：“为什么便宜的不去追涨(catch up)贵的，难道是我的计算错误？”。说穿，catch-up effect是骗人的。
根据table2的例子，如果cepat的股价是RM0.9，asiatic的股价是RM4.5，在赢面上，你应该根据table1的base price增加asiatic，持减cepat。但通常我还是会很理性的告诉你，cepat的价格比asiatic更吸引人，因为这是我的买卖标准。除非有例外声明“同步上涨潜能”。
这种同步效应很少有例外，即使是拥有RM2现金的sbagan，他也是从RM3.5同步下跌的，他难免也要响应大市下跌。如果说他下跌到RM1.6也不奇怪（RM1.6肯定有RM1.6的因素）。
股价的形成，肯定有他特定的形成原因，很多很多(beta,company image,dividend,炒作...)，讲不完。
请注意，cepat的合理价是随意设想的。
22 March 2009
Oil Palm Plantations threat Indonesia’s forests and peatlands
blogger remark:
widjaja family is one of the world biggest pulp （paper）producer, this family can trace its history to the smoke havoc from Riau province,indonesia.
博主注明：
widjaja家族是全球主要纸业生产者，是印尼廖内省烟雾问题制造者。
source
source
One of the most menaces to Indonesia’s forests is the ‘gold rush’ for new oil palm plantations, caused by the increasing global demand for palm oil for food, soaps, cosmetics and bio fuels. Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer has the fastest deforestation rate of any major forested country.
Forest destruction is responsible for about one fifth of global greenhouse gas emissions. Indonesia is widely seen as the world’s third –largest emitter of greenhouse gases after China and United States, a major contributor to climate change, by virtue of the pace of its deforestation.
One of the big companies that has been blaming for destruction of the country’s forest is Sinar Mas Group. Greenpeace’s investigation proves Sinar Mas had cleared carbon-rich peatland, a key source of greenhouse gases when burnt to a depth greater than three metres which is illegal according Indonesian law.
Sinar Mas Group is Indonesia’s largest palm oil company which has about 125,000 hectares of palm oil plantations, and boasts of ‘aggressive plantation expansion’. It has grown its palm oil plantation area by over a third in the last two years and has further expansion plans in Kalimantan (in Lake Sentarum National Park in Borneo’s West Kalimantan) and the largely untouched provinces of Papua (near Papuan Town of Lereh), where it plans to develop a rainforest area of up to 2.8 million hectares. Judging by past operations and known concessions that Sinar Mas holds, the vast majority of future expansion is likely to involve deforestation, some on peatlands and in the habitats of the critically endangered orang-utans.
Sinar Mas is also heavily involved in the pulp and paper industry through its holding company, Asia Pulp & Paper (APP). APP has extensive plantation areas on peatlands and in 2007 was found to be buying illegal timber originating from a peatland area in Riau Province, Sumatra. The peat in this area was more than 4 metres deep, which is illegal to develop, clear or drain under Indonesian law. It is also illegal to buy timber from such areas. Investigations by WWF in 2007 revealed illegal logging by APP in Jambi Province, Sumatra.
Sinar Mas exported over 1 million tonnes of palm oil products in 2007. India and China accounted for nearly half of all exports, while 200,000 tonnes were shipped to Italy, the Netherlands, Germany, Spain and the UK. Sinar Mas supplies Nestlé and Wilmar, and according to data published in November 2007, its customers include Unilever, Proctor &
Gamble, Henkel, Pizza Hut, McDonalds, Burger King, Danone, AAK and Cargill.
On the island of Sumatra, millions of hectares of peatland forests have already been cleared, or are earmarked to be converted into oil palm and pulp and paper plantations by that company. APP is the largest holder of concessions in Riau Province, with over 800,000 hectares. Riau’s Kampar Peninsular contains some of the largest remaining intact peatland forests in Sumatra, which are currently being drained and cleared for industrial expansion by companies including APP. Kampar consists entirely of a single peat dome, with peat depths mostly over 10 metres — extremely deep, forming an enormous store of carbon. As the peat is thoroughly waterlogged, with water content up to 90% or more, drainage and plantation development in one area of the landscape will have widespread detrimental impacts on the remaining natural forest.
The development of APP’s concessions will lead to huge greenhouse gas emissions through the degradation of the carbon-rich peat, and also to massive biodiversity losses. The Kampar peninsular is home to a rich biodiversity, including the Sumatran elephant, and is a last stronghold of the Sumatran tiger.
Greenpeace has been lobbying the Indonesia’s main logging companies and government for immediate halt on the expansion of oil palm plantations which are blamed for the loss of huge areas of what is left of Indonesia’s unspoiled forest.
widjaja family is one of the world biggest pulp （paper）producer, this family can trace its history to the smoke havoc from Riau province,indonesia.
博主注明：
widjaja家族是全球主要纸业生产者，是印尼廖内省烟雾问题制造者。
source
source
One of the most menaces to Indonesia’s forests is the ‘gold rush’ for new oil palm plantations, caused by the increasing global demand for palm oil for food, soaps, cosmetics and bio fuels. Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer has the fastest deforestation rate of any major forested country.
Forest destruction is responsible for about one fifth of global greenhouse gas emissions. Indonesia is widely seen as the world’s third –largest emitter of greenhouse gases after China and United States, a major contributor to climate change, by virtue of the pace of its deforestation.
One of the big companies that has been blaming for destruction of the country’s forest is Sinar Mas Group. Greenpeace’s investigation proves Sinar Mas had cleared carbon-rich peatland, a key source of greenhouse gases when burnt to a depth greater than three metres which is illegal according Indonesian law.
Sinar Mas Group is Indonesia’s largest palm oil company which has about 125,000 hectares of palm oil plantations, and boasts of ‘aggressive plantation expansion’. It has grown its palm oil plantation area by over a third in the last two years and has further expansion plans in Kalimantan (in Lake Sentarum National Park in Borneo’s West Kalimantan) and the largely untouched provinces of Papua (near Papuan Town of Lereh), where it plans to develop a rainforest area of up to 2.8 million hectares. Judging by past operations and known concessions that Sinar Mas holds, the vast majority of future expansion is likely to involve deforestation, some on peatlands and in the habitats of the critically endangered orang-utans.
Sinar Mas is also heavily involved in the pulp and paper industry through its holding company, Asia Pulp & Paper (APP). APP has extensive plantation areas on peatlands and in 2007 was found to be buying illegal timber originating from a peatland area in Riau Province, Sumatra. The peat in this area was more than 4 metres deep, which is illegal to develop, clear or drain under Indonesian law. It is also illegal to buy timber from such areas. Investigations by WWF in 2007 revealed illegal logging by APP in Jambi Province, Sumatra.
Sinar Mas exported over 1 million tonnes of palm oil products in 2007. India and China accounted for nearly half of all exports, while 200,000 tonnes were shipped to Italy, the Netherlands, Germany, Spain and the UK. Sinar Mas supplies Nestlé and Wilmar, and according to data published in November 2007, its customers include Unilever, Proctor &
Gamble, Henkel, Pizza Hut, McDonalds, Burger King, Danone, AAK and Cargill.
On the island of Sumatra, millions of hectares of peatland forests have already been cleared, or are earmarked to be converted into oil palm and pulp and paper plantations by that company. APP is the largest holder of concessions in Riau Province, with over 800,000 hectares. Riau’s Kampar Peninsular contains some of the largest remaining intact peatland forests in Sumatra, which are currently being drained and cleared for industrial expansion by companies including APP. Kampar consists entirely of a single peat dome, with peat depths mostly over 10 metres — extremely deep, forming an enormous store of carbon. As the peat is thoroughly waterlogged, with water content up to 90% or more, drainage and plantation development in one area of the landscape will have widespread detrimental impacts on the remaining natural forest.
The development of APP’s concessions will lead to huge greenhouse gas emissions through the degradation of the carbon-rich peat, and also to massive biodiversity losses. The Kampar peninsular is home to a rich biodiversity, including the Sumatran elephant, and is a last stronghold of the Sumatran tiger.
Greenpeace has been lobbying the Indonesia’s main logging companies and government for immediate halt on the expansion of oil palm plantations which are blamed for the loss of huge areas of what is left of Indonesia’s unspoiled forest.
20 March 2009
烂地公司。
甘榜企业大亨Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar常以低廉的价格购买烂地（泥炭和红树沼泽林），这包括最近“救救海马行动”中扮演吃重角色的tanjong pelepas港口发展计划。
tradewinds plantation近几年也耗资了几亿令吉购买这类的土地，其中包括了Cbip和Twsplnt组成50:50的joint venture，这些收购十足是赔钱货，除非，cpo能在回到RM4500的水平。
虽然这项收购只用了RM10，但他必须买下债务和注入资金发展。
这些地也不便宜。
价钱不重要，重点在，谁玩了猫腻，谁花谁的钱。
这也是twsplnt从RM4.2下跌至RM1.45的原因了。
别以为它跌得最多就有机会反弹，“深陷泥沼”的风险是很大的。
这不是卖出建议，因为我不知道他的合理价，即使给你算到，股价在50%-200%波动都算正常。
例如，万一算出的合理价是RM1，他的股价在RM0.5-RM2都是正常。
股价的事就不必去想了。
这是早期证券行给予的合理价：Rm5.25 [source] 。
举这例子，并不是想质疑分析员的专业，持有这种质疑心态，有时是很幼稚的。
也因为，这个合理价在当时是非常合理的。
虽然同样来自Sarawak的SOP也有泥炭地，但SOP可以把FFB产量维持在20，实属侥幸。
以上言论并不表示所有sarawak estate都是烂地。因为sarawak的种植起步最晚，每年以30:70(未成熟/成熟)的步伐推进，提炼厂也不能发挥最好的状态，所以说sarawak-based company未必全是烂的。估计必须等到2011年才能看到答案。
tradewinds plantation近几年也耗资了几亿令吉购买这类的土地，其中包括了Cbip和Twsplnt组成50:50的joint venture，这些收购十足是赔钱货，除非，cpo能在回到RM4500的水平。
虽然这项收购只用了RM10，但他必须买下债务和注入资金发展。
这些地也不便宜。
价钱不重要，重点在，谁玩了猫腻，谁花谁的钱。
这也是twsplnt从RM4.2下跌至RM1.45的原因了。
别以为它跌得最多就有机会反弹，“深陷泥沼”的风险是很大的。
这不是卖出建议，因为我不知道他的合理价，即使给你算到，股价在50%-200%波动都算正常。
例如，万一算出的合理价是RM1，他的股价在RM0.5-RM2都是正常。
股价的事就不必去想了。
这是早期证券行给予的合理价：Rm5.25 [source] 。
举这例子，并不是想质疑分析员的专业，持有这种质疑心态，有时是很幼稚的。
也因为，这个合理价在当时是非常合理的。
虽然同样来自Sarawak的SOP也有泥炭地，但SOP可以把FFB产量维持在20，实属侥幸。
以上言论并不表示所有sarawak estate都是烂地。因为sarawak的种植起步最晚，每年以30:70(未成熟/成熟)的步伐推进，提炼厂也不能发挥最好的状态，所以说sarawak-based company未必全是烂的。估计必须等到2011年才能看到答案。
欧美该不该谴责马印的环保问题？从碳排放谈起。
在欧洲也出现过超市禁止售卖棕油的记录。但，根据研究，如果把部分的棕油，菜油，豆油混合，可以调和出更均衡的食用油，如今想禁都难了。
前任首相马哈迪一致强力谴责欧美人士才是制造污染的主力，这不全然是对的。
如果从森林，土壤，土地循环使用的角度来看，温带国家砍伐森林的“罪”，要比热带国家轻很多。原因是热带雨林比温带森林更能降低温度和更有效固碳。
也有科学指出，颜色越深的植物反而会带来温室上升。我们不管他是不是自圆其说的阴谋。
Sarawak州的泥炭土问题，也是油棕业者在该州裹足不前的原因。因为泥炭土不能再循环使用，在该地段建筑也会遭受下陷的风险。
邻国印尼佯称，森林砍伐是为了发展油棕业，但其实，在数以百万公顷计，被砍伐的森林中，只有10%不到的森林被转为油棕业，另外的90%名义上是种植地，但实为空地。说穿，他们是为了木材。
在不少网民常以“马哈迪式”的措词反驳欧美人士持有双重标准时，其实他们已经沦为政客私器。
前任首相马哈迪一致强力谴责欧美人士才是制造污染的主力，这不全然是对的。
如果从森林，土壤，土地循环使用的角度来看，温带国家砍伐森林的“罪”，要比热带国家轻很多。原因是热带雨林比温带森林更能降低温度和更有效固碳。
也有科学指出，颜色越深的植物反而会带来温室上升。我们不管他是不是自圆其说的阴谋。
Sarawak州的泥炭土问题，也是油棕业者在该州裹足不前的原因。因为泥炭土不能再循环使用，在该地段建筑也会遭受下陷的风险。
邻国印尼佯称，森林砍伐是为了发展油棕业，但其实，在数以百万公顷计，被砍伐的森林中，只有10%不到的森林被转为油棕业，另外的90%名义上是种植地，但实为空地。说穿，他们是为了木材。
在不少网民常以“马哈迪式”的措词反驳欧美人士持有双重标准时，其实他们已经沦为政客私器。
19 March 2009
Still fertile - Chemical Company of Malaysia has been enjoying a fine run of late. Will the good times last?
AsiaViews, Edition: 52/V/Jan/2009
IT HAS BEEN A GOOD YEAR THUS far for Chemical Company of Malaysia Bhd (CCM), driven by strong growth from its fertilizer division. However, will the good times last? With 80% of its fertiliser products driven by the oil palm sector, the health of this sector going forward is crucial to the division and the prospect of the group as a whole. The oil palm sector is now going through challenging times as crude palm oil (CPO) prices are now in a cyclical downturn. However, analysts say that the adverse impact to CCM is still expected to be manageable, given the well-diversified business model of the group.
A leading industrial conglomerate
The group has been in business for a long time, to say the least. CCM was incorporated as Chemical Company of Malaysia in 1963 by Imperial Chemical Company Plc (ICI) of the United Kingdom. It was initially set up to manufacture chlor-alkali products and high-grade compound fertilizers. In 1995, the company broadened its horizon to include pharmaceuticals and hospital services. At present, its main core businesses are categorized into three main divisions, namely,
(i) fertilisers,
(ii) chemicals, and
(iii) pharmaceuticals
CCM’s involvement in chemicals is via its 80%-owned subsidiary CCM Chemicals Sdn Bhd (CCMC). The division’s principal activities include the manufacture and marketing of chlor-alkali and other chemical products with three manufacturing facilities located in Shah Alam, Port Klang and Pasir Gudang, producing and formulating various chemical products. The two major products produced by CCMC are chlorine and caustic soda.
Chlorine products are typically used for water treatment and in plastic manufacturing while caustic soda is used in the manufacture of soap powder, alumina, detergents and bleaching products as well as in the pulp and paper industry. In 2007, the chemicals division contributed around 32.7% of group revenue. Riding on its established position in Malaysia, CCMC is progressively penetrating the Asean market by setting up offices in Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines.
The group’s pharmaceuticals division, on the other hand, comprises several subsidiaries such as CCM Pharma Sdn Bhd, UPHA Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Sdn Bhd and CCM Duopharma. This division is mainly involved in manufacturing and marketing pharmaceutical and healthcare products. Around 80% of its pharmaceutical products are ethical products and the remaining 20%, OTC products. Currently, the division exports to more than 20 countries worldwide, with Asian countries such as Cambodia, Indonesia, Hong Kong and Singapore being the major export markets. In 2007, the pharmaceutical division contributed 15.6% to group revenue.
The fertilizer division, which is CCM’s biggest revenue contributor, contributed around 51.9% of the group’s revenue in 2007. It is involved in this business segment via its 50.1%-owned CCM Fertilizers Sdn Bhd (CCMF), which is the largest manufacturer and trader of fertilizers in Malaysia with a 30% share of the local market. It has been reported that CCMF is the only manufacturer of compound fertilizers in the country. At present, CCMF has only one fully operated plant in Shah Alam with an annual rated capacity of 280,000 tons. However, it has three plants under construction currently in Bintulu, Medan and Lahad Datu. Upon completion, CCMF will have a combined manufacturing capacity of 670,000 tons of fertilizers per annum, making it one of the largest producers of compound fertilizers in Asean.
Prospects generally bright
According to the Department of Statistics, between 2003 and 2007, the sales value of chemicals in the country increased at an average annual rate of 20.5% to RM157.9 billion in 2007. Over the same period, the annual export value of chemicals rose 15.3% to RM36.4 billion in 2007. CCM’s pharmaceutical division is expected to grow steadily, supported by rising healthcare expenditure and growing awareness of healthcare and disease prevention among the population. The prospect of fertilizer usage is said to be sustainable.
According to the International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA), Malaysia is ranked as the world’s 10th largest fertilizer consumer, accounting for around 1.1% of the world’s total consumption in 2006. Not surprisingly, around 72% of the fertilizer consumption in Malaysia is used by the oil palm sector followed by other agriculture sectors such as rice and fruits and vegetable crops, which accounted for around 8% and 2.8% of total consumption respectively. In 2006, potassium fertilizer was the most commonly used fertilizer in Malaysia, making up around 56% of the total consumption followed by nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer, which made up another 30% and 13.6% of the total consumption respectively. Based on the latest data, fertilizer consumption in Malaysia grew at around 8.4% p.a. between 1997 and 2006.
Given that all its divisions are one of the largest players in their respective segments with a dominant market share, local research house OSK Research believes that CCM will remain a market leader in its businesses given its strong competitive advantage and vast experience and in-depth knowledge. It adds that a strong market position means CCM has strong bargaining power in terms of securing raw materials, selling prices and economies of scale. The emergence of Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB) as the group’s largest shareholder has also strengthened its profile, particularly its fertilizer division, given PNB’s substantial shareholdings in plantation estates in Malaysia.
… but affected now by CPO price down-cycle
However, its profitable fertilizer division is under threat from the downtrend in CPO prices at the moment. OSK Research says that farmers generally buy fertilizers on credit and repay only when their harvest is sold. Hence, the price those farmers expect to receive for their harvest influences their decision to invest in fertilizers to increase yield and improve crop quality. Studies have apparently shown that the prices of agricultural commodities have a greater influence on farmers’ decision to spend on fertilizers than do the price of fertilizers themselves.
The rising market price of agricultural commodities tends to push up fertilizer prices rather than the contrary (refer Chart 5) where fertilizer prices move in tandem with agricultural commodity prices but with a time lag. This has been proven by the recent rise in food/soft commodities prices due to a global food shortage, which has pushed fertilizer prices to an all-time high. Falling CPO prices mean oil palm planters are likely to scale back their purchases of fertilizers going forward.
Expecting lower growth going forward
In Malaysia, firm CPO prices have been the main driver for the demand of premium fertilisers, namely, compound fertilizers, as smallholders and oil palm plantations attempt to raise yields to capitalize on the crop’s high prices. As a result, compound fertilizer sales in Malaysia generally move in tandem with CPO price movements, although with some time lag. In contrast, oil palm planters tend to switch to cheaper and lower quality fertilizer, such as straight and mixed fertilizer, when CPO prices are low, as a cost-cutting measure, considering that fertilizer cost accounts for around 30% to 40% of total planting and maintenance cost. In a worst-case scenario, OSK Research says it does not rule out the likelihood that oil palm planters will either defer or cancel their fertilizer purchases, which would hurt CCM’s earnings.
Note that although timely application of the right fertilizer is still important for yield, the research house believes that planters are still likely to cut their fertilizer application for the next few quarters based on the following two possible reasons.
Firstly, the dramatic drop in CPO prices over a very short period is considered the worst the players have seen, catching them unprepared in adjusting their production costs and maintaining margins. Although the current CPO price of around RM1,500/ton is still well above the lowest price in 2001 of RM750/ton, production costs have over the years increased significantly as well. This has caused planters to opt to cut their fertilizer cost by reducing fertilizer application since this is seen as the easier way to cut production cost.
Secondly, given the strong CPO prices from 2006 up to earlier this year, planters have increased their fertilizer application quite significantly over this period to capitalize on the high CPO prices, which has resulted in nutrient-rich soil. In the event the planters decide to cut their fertilizer application significantly for the next few quarters, the nutrients in the soil are still seen as sufficient to sustain the growth of oil palm trees for the next few months with a minimal impact on yield.
Under such circumstances, OSK Research has reduced its average compound fertilizer prices for 2009 from RM1,800 per ton to RM1,400 per ton. The research house has also lowered its forecast capacity utilization rate assumption for CCM in 2009 from 100% to 80% after factoring in a slowdown in demand for compound fertilizer. It was reported that fertilizer consumption in Malaysia dropped by around 23% from 1998 to 2001 during the previous down-cycle in CPO prices.
Still solid nonetheless
Even if the immediate outlook of its fertilizer division seems gloomy, OSK Research believes that CCM group’s earnings as a whole will still be cushioned by its chemicals division, mainly driven by a newly acquired subsidiary, Innovative Group. It also expects the group’s pharmaceutical division to remain resilient despite the economic slowdown, given the nature of its business even though the division’s 2008 earnings has been somewhat disappointing due to margins contraction driven by higher material and production costs. However, the division’s margins are expected to recover in 1QFY09 as most of its raw material prices have come down from their peak in tandem with receding oil prices.
Conclusion
Although there might be some concerns over the liquidity of CCM shares, OSK Research believes that CCM is still a good choice for long-term investors. It adds that the group has an attractive dividend payout guideline of 75% of its net profit, which is sustainable given that it had historically managed to pay its dividends as guided. The research house has a ‘BUY’ rating on CCM with a fair value of RM2.78.
Malaysian Business, 01 January 2009
blogger remark : the target price was downgraded to RM2.24 (neutral) ,on February 26, 2009
IT HAS BEEN A GOOD YEAR THUS far for Chemical Company of Malaysia Bhd (CCM), driven by strong growth from its fertilizer division. However, will the good times last? With 80% of its fertiliser products driven by the oil palm sector, the health of this sector going forward is crucial to the division and the prospect of the group as a whole. The oil palm sector is now going through challenging times as crude palm oil (CPO) prices are now in a cyclical downturn. However, analysts say that the adverse impact to CCM is still expected to be manageable, given the well-diversified business model of the group.
A leading industrial conglomerate
The group has been in business for a long time, to say the least. CCM was incorporated as Chemical Company of Malaysia in 1963 by Imperial Chemical Company Plc (ICI) of the United Kingdom. It was initially set up to manufacture chlor-alkali products and high-grade compound fertilizers. In 1995, the company broadened its horizon to include pharmaceuticals and hospital services. At present, its main core businesses are categorized into three main divisions, namely,
(i) fertilisers,
(ii) chemicals, and
(iii) pharmaceuticals
CCM’s involvement in chemicals is via its 80%-owned subsidiary CCM Chemicals Sdn Bhd (CCMC). The division’s principal activities include the manufacture and marketing of chlor-alkali and other chemical products with three manufacturing facilities located in Shah Alam, Port Klang and Pasir Gudang, producing and formulating various chemical products. The two major products produced by CCMC are chlorine and caustic soda.
Chlorine products are typically used for water treatment and in plastic manufacturing while caustic soda is used in the manufacture of soap powder, alumina, detergents and bleaching products as well as in the pulp and paper industry. In 2007, the chemicals division contributed around 32.7% of group revenue. Riding on its established position in Malaysia, CCMC is progressively penetrating the Asean market by setting up offices in Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines.
The group’s pharmaceuticals division, on the other hand, comprises several subsidiaries such as CCM Pharma Sdn Bhd, UPHA Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Sdn Bhd and CCM Duopharma. This division is mainly involved in manufacturing and marketing pharmaceutical and healthcare products. Around 80% of its pharmaceutical products are ethical products and the remaining 20%, OTC products. Currently, the division exports to more than 20 countries worldwide, with Asian countries such as Cambodia, Indonesia, Hong Kong and Singapore being the major export markets. In 2007, the pharmaceutical division contributed 15.6% to group revenue.
The fertilizer division, which is CCM’s biggest revenue contributor, contributed around 51.9% of the group’s revenue in 2007. It is involved in this business segment via its 50.1%-owned CCM Fertilizers Sdn Bhd (CCMF), which is the largest manufacturer and trader of fertilizers in Malaysia with a 30% share of the local market. It has been reported that CCMF is the only manufacturer of compound fertilizers in the country. At present, CCMF has only one fully operated plant in Shah Alam with an annual rated capacity of 280,000 tons. However, it has three plants under construction currently in Bintulu, Medan and Lahad Datu. Upon completion, CCMF will have a combined manufacturing capacity of 670,000 tons of fertilizers per annum, making it one of the largest producers of compound fertilizers in Asean.
Prospects generally bright
According to the Department of Statistics, between 2003 and 2007, the sales value of chemicals in the country increased at an average annual rate of 20.5% to RM157.9 billion in 2007. Over the same period, the annual export value of chemicals rose 15.3% to RM36.4 billion in 2007. CCM’s pharmaceutical division is expected to grow steadily, supported by rising healthcare expenditure and growing awareness of healthcare and disease prevention among the population. The prospect of fertilizer usage is said to be sustainable.
According to the International Fertilizer Industry Association (IFA), Malaysia is ranked as the world’s 10th largest fertilizer consumer, accounting for around 1.1% of the world’s total consumption in 2006. Not surprisingly, around 72% of the fertilizer consumption in Malaysia is used by the oil palm sector followed by other agriculture sectors such as rice and fruits and vegetable crops, which accounted for around 8% and 2.8% of total consumption respectively. In 2006, potassium fertilizer was the most commonly used fertilizer in Malaysia, making up around 56% of the total consumption followed by nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer, which made up another 30% and 13.6% of the total consumption respectively. Based on the latest data, fertilizer consumption in Malaysia grew at around 8.4% p.a. between 1997 and 2006.
Given that all its divisions are one of the largest players in their respective segments with a dominant market share, local research house OSK Research believes that CCM will remain a market leader in its businesses given its strong competitive advantage and vast experience and in-depth knowledge. It adds that a strong market position means CCM has strong bargaining power in terms of securing raw materials, selling prices and economies of scale. The emergence of Permodalan Nasional Bhd (PNB) as the group’s largest shareholder has also strengthened its profile, particularly its fertilizer division, given PNB’s substantial shareholdings in plantation estates in Malaysia.
… but affected now by CPO price down-cycle
However, its profitable fertilizer division is under threat from the downtrend in CPO prices at the moment. OSK Research says that farmers generally buy fertilizers on credit and repay only when their harvest is sold. Hence, the price those farmers expect to receive for their harvest influences their decision to invest in fertilizers to increase yield and improve crop quality. Studies have apparently shown that the prices of agricultural commodities have a greater influence on farmers’ decision to spend on fertilizers than do the price of fertilizers themselves.
The rising market price of agricultural commodities tends to push up fertilizer prices rather than the contrary (refer Chart 5) where fertilizer prices move in tandem with agricultural commodity prices but with a time lag. This has been proven by the recent rise in food/soft commodities prices due to a global food shortage, which has pushed fertilizer prices to an all-time high. Falling CPO prices mean oil palm planters are likely to scale back their purchases of fertilizers going forward.
Expecting lower growth going forward
In Malaysia, firm CPO prices have been the main driver for the demand of premium fertilisers, namely, compound fertilizers, as smallholders and oil palm plantations attempt to raise yields to capitalize on the crop’s high prices. As a result, compound fertilizer sales in Malaysia generally move in tandem with CPO price movements, although with some time lag. In contrast, oil palm planters tend to switch to cheaper and lower quality fertilizer, such as straight and mixed fertilizer, when CPO prices are low, as a cost-cutting measure, considering that fertilizer cost accounts for around 30% to 40% of total planting and maintenance cost. In a worst-case scenario, OSK Research says it does not rule out the likelihood that oil palm planters will either defer or cancel their fertilizer purchases, which would hurt CCM’s earnings.
Note that although timely application of the right fertilizer is still important for yield, the research house believes that planters are still likely to cut their fertilizer application for the next few quarters based on the following two possible reasons.
Firstly, the dramatic drop in CPO prices over a very short period is considered the worst the players have seen, catching them unprepared in adjusting their production costs and maintaining margins. Although the current CPO price of around RM1,500/ton is still well above the lowest price in 2001 of RM750/ton, production costs have over the years increased significantly as well. This has caused planters to opt to cut their fertilizer cost by reducing fertilizer application since this is seen as the easier way to cut production cost.
Secondly, given the strong CPO prices from 2006 up to earlier this year, planters have increased their fertilizer application quite significantly over this period to capitalize on the high CPO prices, which has resulted in nutrient-rich soil. In the event the planters decide to cut their fertilizer application significantly for the next few quarters, the nutrients in the soil are still seen as sufficient to sustain the growth of oil palm trees for the next few months with a minimal impact on yield.
Under such circumstances, OSK Research has reduced its average compound fertilizer prices for 2009 from RM1,800 per ton to RM1,400 per ton. The research house has also lowered its forecast capacity utilization rate assumption for CCM in 2009 from 100% to 80% after factoring in a slowdown in demand for compound fertilizer. It was reported that fertilizer consumption in Malaysia dropped by around 23% from 1998 to 2001 during the previous down-cycle in CPO prices.
Still solid nonetheless
Even if the immediate outlook of its fertilizer division seems gloomy, OSK Research believes that CCM group’s earnings as a whole will still be cushioned by its chemicals division, mainly driven by a newly acquired subsidiary, Innovative Group. It also expects the group’s pharmaceutical division to remain resilient despite the economic slowdown, given the nature of its business even though the division’s 2008 earnings has been somewhat disappointing due to margins contraction driven by higher material and production costs. However, the division’s margins are expected to recover in 1QFY09 as most of its raw material prices have come down from their peak in tandem with receding oil prices.
Conclusion
Although there might be some concerns over the liquidity of CCM shares, OSK Research believes that CCM is still a good choice for long-term investors. It adds that the group has an attractive dividend payout guideline of 75% of its net profit, which is sustainable given that it had historically managed to pay its dividends as guided. The research house has a ‘BUY’ rating on CCM with a fair value of RM2.78.
Malaysian Business, 01 January 2009
blogger remark : the target price was downgraded to RM2.24 (neutral) ,on February 26, 2009
16 March 2009
分析：亚洲棕榈油表现优于豆油的好景恐不长
博主评：如果如预料中的下跌来临，期市，股市，汇市都会一起下跌，这是我观察来的，当股市跌时，棕榈油期货也跌，马币也跌，后果就是棕榈油期货和豆油期货的价格差(gap)会再度拉大，这是比较担忧的。
from reuter.cn
2009年 3月 11日 星期三 06:51 BJT
* 棕榈油与豆油价差缩窄至一年来最低
* 收获季产出达高峰但需求走软,将打压价格
* 马来西亚行业大会将公布价格预测
记者 Niluksi Koswanage;编译 徐伟
路透吉隆坡3月10日电---亚洲棕榈油期货与美国豆油期货去年走势几乎同步,但随着库存减少,前者自今年1月以来已摆脱豆油颓势,两者价差缩窄至一年来最低.
不过,对许多交易员而言,这是令人忧心的信号.他们认为棕榈油价格已到了向下修正的时机,因为中国与印度等主要进口国在建立大量库存後减缓进口、市季节性收获高峰、同时自2007年以来逐步降至低点的生产商库存开始增加.
一马来西亚种植主称,"未来六个月内,棕榈油价格大致介于1,200-1,400马币,因为价格上涨缩窄了与豆油的价差."
毛棕榈油期货自1月以来已大涨23%,同期美国豆油期货则下跌8%,两合约价差收窄至每吨150美元以来,为去年8月高峰时的三分之一.
在欧洲,棕榈油较豆油溢价6%,1月初时还为折价2.5%.
浏览棕榈油,豆油与柴油价格相关走势,请点击(https://customers.reuters.com/d/graphics/CMD_PLMSY0309.gif)
尽管南美乾旱引发忧虑,阿根廷农民与政府在定价问题陷入僵局,但因股市下跌、美元走强、以及原油价格疲软之故,美国指标食用油价格持续回落.
主要消费国中国持有大量的食用油储备、47美元的原油价格令棕榈油生化柴油业务无利可图、再加上夏季是东南亚收获季节的开始,因此棕榈油库存将迅速增长.
本周在马来西亚吉隆坡举行的棕榈油产业大会上,预料这将是关键讨论议题.届时各方分析师将纷纷发表对食用油市场的观点及预测.
**生化柴油需求下降**
投资银行高盛称,由于价格反弹过大过快,未来三到六个月内,棕榈油价格将回落10%-15%.
该行补充称,"毛棕榈油价格表现远优于原油,已显着压缩棕榈油生化柴油的利润率.生化柴油需求的减少将打击棕榈油价格."
作为生化柴油原料的棕榈油,自年初以来,与区内指标新加坡柴油相比一直享有溢价.
由于油价下滑,欧美对棕榈生化燃料的需求开始下降,尤其是欧盟上周已开始对美国廉价的进口生化燃料课徵反倾销税.
另一方面,一家面向中国的马来西亚出口商称,由于棕榈油在国际现货市场上对豆油的竞争力已不复存在,向中国付运的棕榈油今年可能较上年的360万吨减少10%.在鹿特丹,精炼棕榈油精成本为每吨595美元,较豆油高6%.
广州一位交易员称,"我预测今年中国棕榈油需求将低于去年,因此毛棕榈油价格不太可能大幅反弹."(完)
--译文审校 沈以文
from reuter.cn
2009年 3月 11日 星期三 06:51 BJT
* 棕榈油与豆油价差缩窄至一年来最低
* 收获季产出达高峰但需求走软,将打压价格
* 马来西亚行业大会将公布价格预测
记者 Niluksi Koswanage;编译 徐伟
路透吉隆坡3月10日电---亚洲棕榈油期货与美国豆油期货去年走势几乎同步,但随着库存减少,前者自今年1月以来已摆脱豆油颓势,两者价差缩窄至一年来最低.
不过,对许多交易员而言,这是令人忧心的信号.他们认为棕榈油价格已到了向下修正的时机,因为中国与印度等主要进口国在建立大量库存後减缓进口、市季节性收获高峰、同时自2007年以来逐步降至低点的生产商库存开始增加.
一马来西亚种植主称,"未来六个月内,棕榈油价格大致介于1,200-1,400马币,因为价格上涨缩窄了与豆油的价差."
毛棕榈油期货自1月以来已大涨23%,同期美国豆油期货则下跌8%,两合约价差收窄至每吨150美元以来,为去年8月高峰时的三分之一.
在欧洲,棕榈油较豆油溢价6%,1月初时还为折价2.5%.
浏览棕榈油,豆油与柴油价格相关走势,请点击(https://customers.reuters.com/d/graphics/CMD_PLMSY0309.gif)
尽管南美乾旱引发忧虑,阿根廷农民与政府在定价问题陷入僵局,但因股市下跌、美元走强、以及原油价格疲软之故,美国指标食用油价格持续回落.
主要消费国中国持有大量的食用油储备、47美元的原油价格令棕榈油生化柴油业务无利可图、再加上夏季是东南亚收获季节的开始,因此棕榈油库存将迅速增长.
本周在马来西亚吉隆坡举行的棕榈油产业大会上,预料这将是关键讨论议题.届时各方分析师将纷纷发表对食用油市场的观点及预测.
**生化柴油需求下降**
投资银行高盛称,由于价格反弹过大过快,未来三到六个月内,棕榈油价格将回落10%-15%.
该行补充称,"毛棕榈油价格表现远优于原油,已显着压缩棕榈油生化柴油的利润率.生化柴油需求的减少将打击棕榈油价格."
作为生化柴油原料的棕榈油,自年初以来,与区内指标新加坡柴油相比一直享有溢价.
由于油价下滑,欧美对棕榈生化燃料的需求开始下降,尤其是欧盟上周已开始对美国廉价的进口生化燃料课徵反倾销税.
另一方面,一家面向中国的马来西亚出口商称,由于棕榈油在国际现货市场上对豆油的竞争力已不复存在,向中国付运的棕榈油今年可能较上年的360万吨减少10%.在鹿特丹,精炼棕榈油精成本为每吨595美元,较豆油高6%.
广州一位交易员称,"我预测今年中国棕榈油需求将低于去年,因此毛棕榈油价格不太可能大幅反弹."(完)
--译文审校 沈以文
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