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Showing posts with label utdplt. Show all posts
Showing posts with label utdplt. Show all posts

25 November 2010

浅谈洋灰业和gopeng

写稿时,gopeng的股价:RM1.39





洋灰业,和钢铁业/瓷砖一样,都是localise的行业,由于这些产品很重,运输费昂贵。

洋灰业,也是可以分为上中下游的:
开采,捏碎,烧成clinker,制作cement,cement制作成concrete。

不像种植上游,洋灰业的上游,据我观察,是不赚钱的。

昨天gopeng的业绩出炉(2010 q3),亏损了RM -51,298,000,相等于eps -28.6sen, 原因是,gopeng以低于net book value的价格(2亿),脱售35.16%的Perak-Hanjoong Simen Sdn Bhd,给YTL CEMENT。

gopeng如果拿到了2亿的现金,还债后,可以变成每股RM1的net cash company。
可是,我们不能把这些cash当作RM 1来看。
这是因为,RM1 不是保证给你的,当然这跟公司的管理层形象有关(就像lionfib脱售silverstone)。


gopeng买入perak-hanjoong以后,每年平均roi粗略估计是5%。
投资额从1.38亿开始,耗费10几年的时间,才慢慢增长到了2.5亿(按股权计)。
它以2亿价格卖出perak-hanjoong,这是令人不解的。
但如果从回报率和股息回酬来解释的话,早卖早超生。
(注:据我计算,perak-hanjoong不曾派过股息。)

可是对YTL cement来说,这是好事,因为这间公司不停通过merger and acquisition装大规模。

gopeng的主要大股东是sunway holdings berhad,为什么不以建筑公司的名义达到synergy?


以35.16%的股权计,perak-hanjoong的税后盈利记录:

2003-18700000估计
2004-19482096估计
2005-10655935估计
200618137143来源:年报
200722799493来源:年报
200819185368来源:年报
200932358317估计


由于ytl系的公司,财政年以30 june结算,以下是以30 june结算perak-hanjoong (35.16%)的税后盈利

200818388680来源:公告
200924049440来源:公告
201040820760来源:公告


2亿的卖价,相等于最近一年5倍本益比。


gopeng近期状况
gopeng虽然在昨天亏损了28.6sen,可是,每股资产却顿时从RM1.63增加到了RM1.94,原因是,这一季gopeng进行了资产重估。

我个人猜测,gopeng替它的perak property进行了资产重估,有的是10几年前的房产。
除此之外,当初它以“非正常手段”,以非常低廉的成本取得了800多公顷的perak种植地段,这些种植地段,也进行了资产重估。

目前gopeng拟将脱售/已经脱售,位于Kota Bharu(kelantan) 800多公顷的种植地段。


买卖建议:
gopeng的资产: 1.8亿现金,800公顷非常有潜能的种植地段,和一间每年赚至少250万的水务公司(GSL Water Sdn Bhd)。
以10倍本益比计,总计价值为 1.8亿 + 8000万 + 2500万 = 2.85亿。

每股价值= RM1.59

建议:卖出。

原因是,这间公司存在很多问题,另外,有可能gopeng会因为变成cash company,暂时列为PN17公司。
过去,散户被perak planter坑杀的例子,不是没发生过。
bursamalaysia里的perak planter,除了utdplt可以相信以外,其他的都要保留。

24 July 2008

RSPO accreditation for four firms

24 July 2008 amresearch

The Edge Financial Daily reported that Sime Darby, IOI Corporation, Kulim and United Plantations would secure the Roundtable for Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) certification in the next few weeks

We view this development positively as it would allow the four group of companies to export their palm oil products to Europe without any hassles or face any protests. RSPO guidelines were put in place to address the concerns of non-governmental organisations in Europe that palm oil is planted at the expense of the environment

RSPO guidelines are also increasingly important as some multinational consumer companies may only purchase certified palm oil in the future. For instance, Unilever has said that it would only buy certified palm oil by 2015

Currently, the certification is done by independent bodies such as SGS Malaysia and Control Union and the cost of the certification is borned by the plantation companies themselves. We believe that certified palm oil may command a slight premium over non-certified palm oil as plantation companies pass on some of the cost of certification in the form of higher selling price

RSPO guidelines include implementation of a proper water management system and non-use of fire on peat soil. A few of the guidelines such as non-usage of fire to open up plantation areas are already being practised by plantation companies in Malaysia and Indonesia

Among the plantation companies under our coverage, Wilmar International was the only one that faced complaints in the past. Some of the allegations made against Wilmar related to local communities’ rights on land clearing, poor quality of Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) reports, conversion of forests without conducting High Conservation Value Forest (HCVF) assessments and open fire burning

In response to these complaints, Wilmar has said that it would observe all legal and statutory requirements for land development and pay special attention to the potential presence of HCVF in the future

Our current recommendations are Buy for Sime Darby and IOI Corporation and Hold for Kulim. We would be reviewing these recommendations soon.

11 June 2008

APPLIED AGRICULTURAL RESOURCES SDN BHD











新科技研究油棕

世界最大的複製油棕實驗室,昨日正式開幕。這家位于雪州依約,佔地3萬5000平方尺的“組織培育實驗室”(Tissue Culture Lab),由Applied Agricultural Resources有限公司經營。 此項實驗採用最新科技,進行油棕組織培育複製,不僅有效縮短油棕樹成熟期,也提供更長的收成經濟周期。據瞭解,每公頃棕油園可生產10.6噸棕油,比一般園坵高出20%至25%。這家化驗室耗資700萬令吉興建,每年可生產高達100萬棵油棕複制幼苗。Applied Agricultural Resources有限公司由國內兩家主板上市公司寶實得控股(bstead),以及吉隆坡甲洞公司(klk)聯合經營。


培育幼苗
油棕種植也邁向現代化,實用農業資源有限公司通過基因複製技術,在瓶罐內培育油棕幼苗。

認識品種
配合最大油棕組織培育實驗室開幕禮,主辦單位也展出不同品種油棕果實切片,讓公眾更瞭解國內油棕品種。

盛產油棕
馬來西亞熱帶氣候最適合油棕生產,我國也是世界主要出口棕油國家之一。
人工繁殖
油棕幼苗率先在經過溫度調較的花圃內繁殖,在成長到特定階段時,再移到空地種植,每株幼苗都是寶。


#圖片解說
改良基因研究中心生產線技術人員,正在忙著培育油棕幼苗,改良其基因。

油棕果實不同重量與大小的果實,所能生產的棕油不定,主辦單位直接展覽實物,讓參觀者自行比較。
清理根部
清理油棕幼苗根部,挑出潰爛部分,確保油棕組織不會壞死,功虧一簣。

研究中心坐落在雪州雙溪毛糯的實用農業資源有限公司,擁有一所現代化研究中心,以現代化與大量培植油棕。
幼苗分類
技術員正分類不同天數與種類的幼苗,希望每株幼苗都得到最好照料,健康成長。








http://www.aarsb.com.my/LatestNews/AARNews/TCOpenAgroworld.html
http://www.aarsb.com.my/LatestNews/AARNews/TCOpenAgroworld_Chi.html




The production of AAR oil palm clone is No. 1 in Malaysia (Dr. Chee Kheng Hoy FISP)

Note: This article is written by Dr. Chee in mandarin and published by Agroworld, Issue No. 201, March 2008, Kuala Lumpur: 24-26. Agroworld is a Chinese magazine for farmers. Please read the original article . To subscribe to Agroworld, please email or contact Agroworld Enterprise, No. 10, Jalan 3/18D, Taman Mastiara, Off Jalan Ipoh Bt 5 1/2, 51200 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Tel: 603-62500975 / 0972 / 0915

(Translated by Soon, S.H.)

AAR Tissue Culture Laboratory can produce 1 million seedlings of oil palm clone yearly, which is the largest production in Malaysia. AAR oil palm clone is able to produce up to 10.6 t/ha/yr of crude palm oil which is 20-25% higher than the yield of conventional seedlings. Besides that, AAR oil palm clones have shorter maturity period and thus, prolonged economic lifespan. Due to their shorter height, they are easier to harvest also.



On 17 th January, AAR Deputy Director of Research, Mr. Goh Kah Joo came to fetch me early in the morning to attend the opening ceremony of AAR tissue culture laboratory in Ijok, Selangor. The Captains of many plantation companies attended the ceremony including Tan Sri Lee Shin Cheng from IOI and Senior Executives from Indonesian plantation companies. Before the opening ceremony, I chat with some friends from the planting industry regarding election issues and the phenomenon of the highest palm oil price. I asked a lady who managed her family palm oil mill and oil palm estate on how she spent so much income and what was the highest price of palm oil per tonne that she sells? She was shy to answer the first question and the answer for the second question was RM 3387. This was admirable indeed.

The challenges of palm oil production

I hardly listened to the two speeches by YB Datuk Peter Chin Fah Kui, Minister of Plantation Industries and Commodities on the same day, i.e. one during the AAR tissue culture opening ceremony in the morning and another lecture during MSSA dinner. The contents of both speeches were about the challenges faced by oil palm and their solutions.

According to the minister, various challenges were faced by the palm oil industry in Malaysia. These challenges included stagnating production rate, low quality and high transportation cost especially when compared to Indonesia. The challenges by non-government organizations: oil palm plantings destroy environmental ecology, threaten the life of orang utan and so on. Minister said that our oil palm advertisement in BBC had also been terminated.

AAR is owned by two public listed companies, Boustead Holdings Berhad and Kuala Lumpur Kepong Berhad on a 50:50 share basis. The minister complimented that the combined resources from both companies resulted in the best economic benefit. AAR is advanced in R&D and directly gives chances to young scientists to develop their capabilities. There are 140 employees working in the laboratory alone.

The main expenditure of tissue culture laboratory is electricity due to sterilization and long period of lighting on ortets. Consequently, the minister said that 50% rebate on electricity bill will be given to R&D laboratory.



25% higher yield than conventional seedlings

AAR Tissue Culture Laboratory can produce 1 million seedlings of oil palm clone yearly, which is the largest production in Malaysia. 90% of the ramets are planted in AAR principals' estates while the remaining 10% are sold to AAR advisory clients.

#pic
AAR ramets have been planted in 40 estates in Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak with a combined hectarage of 8000. This is the largest planting of oil palm ramets in the world.
pic#

According to Dr. Kee Khan Kiang (Director of Reseach, AAR), AAR oil palm clones are able to produce up to 10.6 t/ha/yr of crude palm oil which is 20-25 % higher than the yield of conventional seedlings. Besides that, AAR oil palm clones have shorter maturity period and thus, prolonged economic lifespan. Due to their shorter height, they are easier to harvest also.
AAR ramets have been planted in 40 estates in Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak with a combined hectarage of 8000. This is the largest planting of oil palm ramets in the world.


The brand name of AAR oil palm clones is AAR Vitroa. The brand name of Dumpy. Yangambi. AVROS (DxP seed from selected good quality of planting materials) is called AAR Hybrida. The brand names of Vitroa and Hybrida come from scientific term : Vitro and Hybrid. AAR creatively added an “a” at the end of these two words to form new terms.

I am familiar with AAR researchers. The research work is very flexible and some interesting stories always happened. For instance, the short form of AAR can refer to commercial company Applied Agricultural Research Sdn. Bhd. or research company Applied Agriecological Research Sdn. Bhd. The expenses of the latter company are tax deductable from its parent company.
In year 2007, I attended the opening ceremony of FELDA tissue culture laboratory at Nilai, Selangor. Now I attended the opening ceremony of AAR tissue culture laboratory. The chief executive officer from IOI Plantation Tan Sri Lee Shin Cheng said he neglected the development of oil palm tissue culture. Although IOI tissue culture laboratory is the most advanced laboratory in earlier years but today it can only produce 200 thousand oil palm clones per year. The former chief executive officer from MPOA Mr. Chandran said the truth on high yielding oil palm is 50% dependant on genetic factor of high yield from planting materials while the other 50% on estate management.

#pic
AAR Tissue Culture Laboratory can produce 1 million seedlings of oil palm clones yearly, which is the largest production in Malaysia.
pic#

Oil palm planting enters new century

Oil palm planting materials from normal DxP become better quality DxP (hybrid) and clones. Oil palm planting industry in Malaysia has already entered the new century. Let's imagine a laboratory can produce 1 million seedlings of oil palm clones and plant 6000 hectares of clonal palms. Based on the basic oil yield of 5 t/ha, clonal trees have 20% higher yield, i.e. 1 tonne higher oil per hectare. Based on RM 2000 per tonne, 6000 ha of clonal palms are worth RM 12,000,000. From harvesting for 15-20 years, the total income of 20 years is RM 240,000,000.

Palm oil industry in Malaysia is currently the number 2 export commodity in the country. According to the latest statistics report, from January-October 2007, the export of oil palm was 7.2% of the total export in Malaysia, closed to RM 36,000,000,000. Oil palm industry provides job opportunity directly to 500 thousand people and indirectly to 2 million people. Oil palm plays an important role in Malaysia economy.


The first step in tissue culture is ortet selection. Because environmental factors influence the production rate, it is not easy to determine the high yielding ortets. Furthermore, the hereditary percentage of high yield is low and human error can also occur during testing for high yield. Thus, ortet and ramet may be different.


In order to get good quality ortet, it is best for a plantation company to have its own selection of planting materials so that we can select potential ortets from the oil palm with different planting materials. Hence, we only select good quality materials for tissue culture to increase the efficiency. Although yield is an important factor during ortet selection, but it is important also to select the tree with many bunches and high oil extraction rate. This is because these two factors have higher hereditary and thus they are not easily influenced by the environment.

#pic
The first step in tissue culture is ortet selection. Because environmental factors influence the production rate, it is not easy to determine the high yielding ortets.
#pic


High price yet high demand
There are more than 10 oil palm tissue culture laboratories in Malaysia with a production rate of 2 million seedlings of oil palm clones per year. Although the cost and price are high, the demand is still high and most are planted in their own companies' fields. Every tissue culture laboratory is currently increasing their production and hopefully, they will achieve a total production of 4 millions in 2010.

#pic
There are more than 10 oil palm tissue culture laboratories in Malaysia with a production rate of 2 million seedlings of oil palm clones per year.
#pic
Besides United Plantations Berhad, a few plantation companies produce this type of seeds.
pic##

MPOB is willing to sponsor the producers of clones and planters who planted them in order to encourage both parties to promote the production and planting of oil palm clones. Due to the high yield of oil palm clone and high value of fresh fruit bunches, the profit for planters is high.

According to the estimate of MPOB, the areas planted with clones in 2005 are about 29,000 hectares. According to the analysis of age of oil palm plantings in Malaysia, 22% or 880,000 ha have to be replanted and 120,000,000 oil palm seedlings are needed. To culture such a large amount of oil palm clones will be time consuming and the solution is to produce clonal seeds. This has been mentioned in Agroworld issue no. 199. Clonal seeds come from the selected parents which has been cloned. The first generation seeds from parent clonal palms are called bi-clonal F1 seeds. Besides United Plantations Berhad, a few plantation companies produce this type of seeds. The yield of these planting materials is approximately 7-8 t/ha/year.

The abnormality of oil palm clones is always there but the severity is lower if compared to the past. According to researcher from FELDA, the clones need to be checked carefully when they are in the tissue culture laboratory and nursery. Any abnormal clones need to be discarded immediately to reduce abnormality in the field to at most 4%.

Oil palm clones are precious. They should be planted in optimal area for oil palm growth. This includes good soil, sufficient rainfall, with legume cover crop for protecting the soil and providing nitrogen, weeding, manuring, pest and disease management. Sufficient and balanced fertilizer is very important. Research has shown that the fertilizers needed by oil palm clones and normal DxP palms are the same.


Harvest after two years

Under proper growth environment, oil palm clones can be harvested two years after planting. The production of fresh fruit bunches for the first two years is 30% higher than normal DxP. The experiment to compare different types of oil palm clones has shown that the yield for half of the clonal materials is 8 t palm oil per ha per year and up to a maximum of 8.8 t.

According to the report from FELDA, there is a difference between yield and origin of ortet. The yield of Yangambi material is 22% higher than DxP, 30% higher than NIFOR, 17% higher than La Me and 14% higher than the rest.

It is very important to increase the yield because more oil means higher net profit if the costs for harvesting, transportation and oil extraction remain the same.


作者注明:相信是新品种的体积较小,需要的面积比较小,因此可以栽种166.66棵/每公顷(density)。按文中解释,马来西亚的平均density是136。