虽然看起来开厂不赚钱，但他的作用是无限的。
1.商业触角可上通下达，上可通国家，下可达小园主。
如果有一间公司有很多小园主找他提炼，无形中他就能建立起销售对象，比如说卖树苗，卖有机肥，土地测验。
2.所有税务（如有）都由小园主承担，不管政府的政策如何改变。
3.提炼厂向小园主收购FFB，通常都是18.5%（介于grade A和grade B的FFB等级），目前收购价大约是RM385/吨，如果把提炼出来的CPO卖出，可以卖到RM2050/吨。
5吨的FFB，可提炼出1吨的CPO，因此收购FFB的成本是RM1950，看起来相当的薄利。
但，还有palm kernel没有算。
每吨的CPO可以拿到230kg的pk，可卖RM211.6。（920/ton）
2050 - 1950 + 211.6 = RM311.6
milling cost大约是RM120。
所以每吨CPO能赚RM191.6。
一间40ton ffb/hour的工厂，一个小时能赚RM1532.8，一天开工16个小时，可赚RM24524.8，一年如果算300天，可赚RM7357440，税务扣25%，净利为RM5518080。
一座全新的提炼厂，要RM35,000,000，所以，开厂的本益比是6.34。开厂可以经营30年以上，比种植的漫长等待快多了。
但，以上算式或许是错的，因为很多miller都不赚钱，姑且就把本益比拉高一倍好了(12.68)。
上述的好处，不能算好处，只能说是刚刚好，不过，如果考虑下列，又怎么看？
4.似乎忘了废物利用，提炼厂残余（ＰＯＭＥ）可制成肥料，成本可大大降低。
那些把残余排掉，破坏环境的厂商，不考虑，这里只谈规模较大的公司。
处理１吨的ＦＦＢ，可以拿回多少的肥料呢？这个我不算了，可参考这里。
【remark 1 day later: 不是不算，是没确定性。虽然POME有N，P，K，Mg，但它终究是biofertilizer。】
５.碳配额（如有）
考虑了这么多好处，我觉得他比edible oil manufacturer还要好赚。至于是不是真的，就要找找TSH-WILMAR联营公司，KWANTAS，KSENG的经营记录了。
31 March 2009
30 March 2009
印度入口关税会影响豆油和棕油价差吗？
【edit hours later】
必须对数据中的100%关税作出修正。
100%关税是根据wto提供的zip档找出的，这是parent page，code是151110。
我搜索了一下新闻，2006的印度棕油入口关税是70%。
以下博文的原貌和结论，已被破例修正。
【end of edit】
下表是历年来印度的入口税。
资料不准确（原本要删除的），仅供参考。
some fragmented info of indian import tariff on soybean oil and palm oil.
the folowing table is inaccurate and tantamount to deletion, For Your Reference Only. for "more" accurate info, please back to top. still, i am not liable for accuracy.
data need delete
cpo和sbo的走势，从2000-2008年，来自MPOB网站。
可以用你的眼力观察sbo和cpo的变动。
mpob没有raw data供你计算，它只提供了这张图。
NORTH WEST EUROPE MARKET - US$ / TONNE
soybean oil/palm oil ratio
资料同样取自MPOB网站，记录的NORTH WEST EUROPE MARKET，豆油/棕榈油(SBO/CPO)的价格比。以2002年的系数（1.164）为例，该年的豆油是454美元，棕油是390美元，价格比（454/390）是1.164。
当然可能欧洲也征收了入口税，导致价格比的计算不准确。是的，欧洲也征收来自马来西亚的CPO入口税，但都很低，以2000年为例，只有0.7%而已。从2006到目前，如果没错的话，CPO是免入口税的。
欧盟反而向黄豆生产国巴西和美国征收更高黄豆油入口税，介于2.5%到3.5%。
remark：
CPO入口税和edible palm oil入口税不一样，以上计算以CPO为准。
还有一个补充例子就是，欧盟比较愿意接受CPO，不太能接受processed palm oil，原因是在船运过程中，CPO比较不会变质，CPO也方便加工。
这也是为什么荷兰是食油提炼中心的原因。
必须对数据中的100%关税作出修正。
100%关税是根据wto提供的zip档找出的，这是parent page，code是151110。
我搜索了一下新闻，2006的印度棕油入口关税是70%。
以下博文的原貌和结论，已被破例修正。
【end of edit】
下表是历年来印度的入口税。
资料不准确（原本要删除的），仅供参考。
some fragmented info of indian import tariff on soybean oil and palm oil.
the folowing table is inaccurate and tantamount to deletion, For Your Reference Only. for "more" accurate info, please back to top. still, i am not liable for accuracy.
data need delete
cpo和sbo的走势，从2000-2008年，来自MPOB网站。
可以用你的眼力观察sbo和cpo的变动。
mpob没有raw data供你计算，它只提供了这张图。
NORTH WEST EUROPE MARKET - US$ / TONNE
soybean oil/palm oil ratio
资料同样取自MPOB网站，记录的NORTH WEST EUROPE MARKET，豆油/棕榈油(SBO/CPO)的价格比。以2002年的系数（1.164）为例，该年的豆油是454美元，棕油是390美元，价格比（454/390）是1.164。
当然可能欧洲也征收了入口税，导致价格比的计算不准确。是的，欧洲也征收来自马来西亚的CPO入口税，但都很低，以2000年为例，只有0.7%而已。从2006到目前，如果没错的话，CPO是免入口税的。
欧盟反而向黄豆生产国巴西和美国征收更高黄豆油入口税，介于2.5%到3.5%。
remark：
CPO入口税和edible palm oil入口税不一样，以上计算以CPO为准。
还有一个补充例子就是，欧盟比较愿意接受CPO，不太能接受processed palm oil，原因是在船运过程中，CPO比较不会变质，CPO也方便加工。
这也是为什么荷兰是食油提炼中心的原因。
29 March 2009
一些收割需注意的事项
果串(FFB)如果过熟，是不会增加含油量的，只会增加free fatty acid，送厂要扣钱。有的CEO在近年发生水灾时透露，如果水灾不方便收割，可任由果串长在树上，这个办法是无计可施下的办法了。
过熟的果粒会从果串剥落，刚掉落到地的果粒是最饱和的，但free fatty acid会增加很快。在CPO飞涨的时候，捡起地上的果粒所得每天也能达到RM80。
不完整的果串要扣钱。厂商会根据果粒的平均重量（克）和损失的平均果粒数目，计算出掉落果粒的重量，换算成吨（tons）。如果能证明自己有把所有地上的果粒捡起，是可以不用扣钱的。
果串的“柄”，要越短越好。
柄会降低厂商的评估，柄不只会降低含油量，也会在提炼过程中吸收掉油。
果串的顶部先熟，底部后熟，收割的最佳时间，应该以“果粒几乎可剥落”的程度为准。
过熟的果粒会从果串剥落，刚掉落到地的果粒是最饱和的，但free fatty acid会增加很快。在CPO飞涨的时候，捡起地上的果粒所得每天也能达到RM80。
不完整的果串要扣钱。厂商会根据果粒的平均重量（克）和损失的平均果粒数目，计算出掉落果粒的重量，换算成吨（tons）。如果能证明自己有把所有地上的果粒捡起，是可以不用扣钱的。
果串的“柄”，要越短越好。
柄会降低厂商的评估，柄不只会降低含油量，也会在提炼过程中吸收掉油。
果串的顶部先熟，底部后熟，收割的最佳时间，应该以“果粒几乎可剥落”的程度为准。
28 March 2009
biological stress
biological stress的真正情况也不是很懂，但就我的理解应该是受到天气状况影响所作出的抵抗反应。
干旱影响最为严重，如果两个月不降雨，油棕树会在6个月-12个月后停产。
如果是下雨就没有那么严重，他只会阻碍授粉过程，影响的只是5个月-6个月后的结果率。
以旱季为例，经过了旱季的biological stress以后，油棕树会有一个突然上升的盛产期，通常这个盛产期可持续8个月，这8个月也是港口存货上升的时候，8个月一过，产量就会回到正常水平，也就是两年前的水平。
从去年12月开始，棕油的产量就下跌了，有人说这是biological stress，有人说这是回到正常水平，这个答案必须找回一年半前的天气状况了。这也是USDA能根据天气状况准确预测的原因。
USDA为美国农业部。
干旱影响最为严重，如果两个月不降雨，油棕树会在6个月-12个月后停产。
如果是下雨就没有那么严重，他只会阻碍授粉过程，影响的只是5个月-6个月后的结果率。
以旱季为例，经过了旱季的biological stress以后，油棕树会有一个突然上升的盛产期，通常这个盛产期可持续8个月，这8个月也是港口存货上升的时候，8个月一过，产量就会回到正常水平，也就是两年前的水平。
从去年12月开始，棕油的产量就下跌了，有人说这是biological stress，有人说这是回到正常水平，这个答案必须找回一年半前的天气状况了。这也是USDA能根据天气状况准确预测的原因。
USDA为美国农业部。
25 March 2009
Indonesia's Sinar Mas defends palm oil expansion
http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSJAK429905
Fri Mar 20, 2009 6:31am EDT
Email | Print | Share | Reprints | Single Page
[-] Text [+]
By Aloysius Bhui
JAKARTA, March 20 (Reuters) - Sinar Mas Group, one of Indonesia's top palm oil growers, denied on Friday accusations that its activities were damaging the environment and said it would stick to plans to expand its plantations.
Greenpeace activists have targeted Sinar Mas in a recent campaign for contributing to deforestation in Indonesia, which is blamed as a key source greenhouse gas emissions in the Southeast Asian country.
"We should have been arrested if we had ever been involved in deforestation," Gandi Sulistiyanto, a managing director of Sinar Mas Group, told Reuters.
He said the company only opened up new plantations in degraded land that had been farmed on or previously logged and not rainforest.
Sinar Mas Group owns publicly-listed PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources Tbk (SMART) (SMAR.JK), which runs its palm oil business, and Asia Pulp & Paper (APP), which operates the pulp and paper business.
Bustar Maitar, Greenpeace Southeast Asia forest campaigner, accused Sinar Mas of destroying forest areas.
"We are facing the greatest threat to humanity -- climate chaos, yet still companies like Sinar Mas can continue to destroy forests and peatlands, rather than protecting them for future generations," Maitar said in a statement.
As of the end of September, SMART managed 127,124 hectares (314,100 acres) of planted oil palm, according to the company.
It produced 410,314 tonnes of crude palm oil in January-September last year, against 509,095 tonnes in all of 2007. [ID:nJAK279457]
The group has earmarked a $100 million palm expansion this year and is not planning to pull back the plan.
"We are still a growing company. We (Indonesia) are still competing with Malaysia to become the world's top producer of palm oil. So we must keep planting," Sulistiyanto said.
He said the current financial crisis may slow down the expansion but would not stop the firm from planting in new areas.
According to Greenpeace, Sinar Mas has 200,000 hectares of unplanted concessions in rainforest in Indonesia and plans to acquire an additional 1.1 million hectares, mainly in Papua.
Sulistiyanto said the firm was currently focused on managing the 11,000 hectares that it has planted with oil palm in the past 14 years in Papua.
"Everybody is eyeing Papua because of its huge land but we haven't got any more concessions there," he said.
Indonesia, the world's top producer of palm oil -- used in a wide range of products, from soap to biodiesel -- is expected to produce 20.25 million tonnes of palm oil in 2009, up from 18.8 million in 2008, the industry association has estimated.
Annette Cotter, campaign manager for the forests campaign in Greenpeace Southeast Asia, has urged Indonesia palm growers to squeeze far higher yields from existing plantations rather than open up more land. [ID:nJAK381772]
Indonesia yields only about 2 tonnes per hectare from its plantations, or just a third of the 6 to 7 tonnes in countries such as Malaysia with better estate management practices. (Editing by Ed Davies and Valerie Lee)
Fri Mar 20, 2009 6:31am EDT
Email | Print | Share | Reprints | Single Page
[-] Text [+]
By Aloysius Bhui
JAKARTA, March 20 (Reuters) - Sinar Mas Group, one of Indonesia's top palm oil growers, denied on Friday accusations that its activities were damaging the environment and said it would stick to plans to expand its plantations.
Greenpeace activists have targeted Sinar Mas in a recent campaign for contributing to deforestation in Indonesia, which is blamed as a key source greenhouse gas emissions in the Southeast Asian country.
"We should have been arrested if we had ever been involved in deforestation," Gandi Sulistiyanto, a managing director of Sinar Mas Group, told Reuters.
He said the company only opened up new plantations in degraded land that had been farmed on or previously logged and not rainforest.
Sinar Mas Group owns publicly-listed PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources Tbk (SMART) (SMAR.JK), which runs its palm oil business, and Asia Pulp & Paper (APP), which operates the pulp and paper business.
Bustar Maitar, Greenpeace Southeast Asia forest campaigner, accused Sinar Mas of destroying forest areas.
"We are facing the greatest threat to humanity -- climate chaos, yet still companies like Sinar Mas can continue to destroy forests and peatlands, rather than protecting them for future generations," Maitar said in a statement.
As of the end of September, SMART managed 127,124 hectares (314,100 acres) of planted oil palm, according to the company.
It produced 410,314 tonnes of crude palm oil in January-September last year, against 509,095 tonnes in all of 2007. [ID:nJAK279457]
The group has earmarked a $100 million palm expansion this year and is not planning to pull back the plan.
"We are still a growing company. We (Indonesia) are still competing with Malaysia to become the world's top producer of palm oil. So we must keep planting," Sulistiyanto said.
He said the current financial crisis may slow down the expansion but would not stop the firm from planting in new areas.
According to Greenpeace, Sinar Mas has 200,000 hectares of unplanted concessions in rainforest in Indonesia and plans to acquire an additional 1.1 million hectares, mainly in Papua.
Sulistiyanto said the firm was currently focused on managing the 11,000 hectares that it has planted with oil palm in the past 14 years in Papua.
"Everybody is eyeing Papua because of its huge land but we haven't got any more concessions there," he said.
Indonesia, the world's top producer of palm oil -- used in a wide range of products, from soap to biodiesel -- is expected to produce 20.25 million tonnes of palm oil in 2009, up from 18.8 million in 2008, the industry association has estimated.
Annette Cotter, campaign manager for the forests campaign in Greenpeace Southeast Asia, has urged Indonesia palm growers to squeeze far higher yields from existing plantations rather than open up more land. [ID:nJAK381772]
Indonesia yields only about 2 tonnes per hectare from its plantations, or just a third of the 6 to 7 tonnes in countries such as Malaysia with better estate management practices. (Editing by Ed Davies and Valerie Lee)
United Malacca aborts palm oil plan in Indonesia
palmoilhq March 10, 2009 8:01 GMT+8
United Malacca Bhd has aborted its maiden oil palm plantation joint venture in Indonesia after about one year of negotiations.
The company’s chief executive officer Dr Leong Tat Thim said the group decided not to venture into Indonesia “for the time being” after encountering many difficulties with its Indonesian partners.
“We decided to allow the MoU (memorandum of understanding) to develop 20,000ha oil palm plantations and operate oil palm businesses in East Kalimantan to lapse,” Leong told StarBiz via email.
He said United Malacca planned instead to actively explore opportunities in acquiring more landbank and newly established plantations in Malaysia, especially in Sabah.
“For financial year 2009, the major growth area is to develop 809.4ha of heavily logged land in Sabah which will enhance United Malacca’s future earnings prospect,” he said.
Going forward, about 1,619ha of young palms will come into maturity that will increase United Malacca’s crop production, according to Leong.
Main board-listed United Malacca may be a small plantation group given its 14,026ha landbank size, but it has RM400mil in cash.
Of its total landbank, some 6,849ha are located in Sabah while the remaining are in Negri Sembilan, Pahang, Johor and Malacca.
Leong expects some RM30mil in capital expenditure to be allocated this year for land acquisitions, development, upgrading and replacement of machines and vehicles. On its dividend payout, he said “historically, United Malacca has been paying interim and final dividends annually.”
“I believe this tradition will be continued by our board of directors even for financial year ending April 30, 2009 as United Malacca is still making profits,” he added.
United Malacca is among the palm oil producers with lower costs, but prevailing high fertiliser prices will increase its production cost by 10% to 20%. For example, its current crude palm oil (CPO) production cost is about RM900 per tonne but going forward the production cost is expected to range between RM1,000 and RM1,200 per tonne.
The current major challenges facing United Malacca are maintaining the cost of production, increasing productivity and producing palm oil in a sustainable manner, according to Leong.
Other major issues faced by United Malacca and the oil palm industry as a whole, are the heavy taxes and cess payments.
On the CPO price outlook this year, he said: “Should the high CPO stockpile be reduced substantially, then there is the possibility that CPO price can trade above RM2,000 per tonne.”
Leong said the local CPO production this year was expected to be reduced as “more old and unproductive palms are felled to take advantage of the government’s replanting subsidy of RM1,000 per hectare.”
In addition, the effect of local planters delaying fertiliser application and to reduce the rate of fertiliser use per palm tree could result in lower fresh fruit bunches production in the third and fourth quarters, he added.
United Malacca Bhd has aborted its maiden oil palm plantation joint venture in Indonesia after about one year of negotiations.
The company’s chief executive officer Dr Leong Tat Thim said the group decided not to venture into Indonesia “for the time being” after encountering many difficulties with its Indonesian partners.
“We decided to allow the MoU (memorandum of understanding) to develop 20,000ha oil palm plantations and operate oil palm businesses in East Kalimantan to lapse,” Leong told StarBiz via email.
He said United Malacca planned instead to actively explore opportunities in acquiring more landbank and newly established plantations in Malaysia, especially in Sabah.
“For financial year 2009, the major growth area is to develop 809.4ha of heavily logged land in Sabah which will enhance United Malacca’s future earnings prospect,” he said.
Going forward, about 1,619ha of young palms will come into maturity that will increase United Malacca’s crop production, according to Leong.
Main board-listed United Malacca may be a small plantation group given its 14,026ha landbank size, but it has RM400mil in cash.
Of its total landbank, some 6,849ha are located in Sabah while the remaining are in Negri Sembilan, Pahang, Johor and Malacca.
Leong expects some RM30mil in capital expenditure to be allocated this year for land acquisitions, development, upgrading and replacement of machines and vehicles. On its dividend payout, he said “historically, United Malacca has been paying interim and final dividends annually.”
“I believe this tradition will be continued by our board of directors even for financial year ending April 30, 2009 as United Malacca is still making profits,” he added.
United Malacca is among the palm oil producers with lower costs, but prevailing high fertiliser prices will increase its production cost by 10% to 20%. For example, its current crude palm oil (CPO) production cost is about RM900 per tonne but going forward the production cost is expected to range between RM1,000 and RM1,200 per tonne.
The current major challenges facing United Malacca are maintaining the cost of production, increasing productivity and producing palm oil in a sustainable manner, according to Leong.
Other major issues faced by United Malacca and the oil palm industry as a whole, are the heavy taxes and cess payments.
On the CPO price outlook this year, he said: “Should the high CPO stockpile be reduced substantially, then there is the possibility that CPO price can trade above RM2,000 per tonne.”
Leong said the local CPO production this year was expected to be reduced as “more old and unproductive palms are felled to take advantage of the government’s replanting subsidy of RM1,000 per hectare.”
In addition, the effect of local planters delaying fertiliser application and to reduce the rate of fertiliser use per palm tree could result in lower fresh fruit bunches production in the third and fourth quarters, he added.
24 March 2009
Lim增持kretam-la的原因。
Freddy Lim Nyuk Sang目前持有29%的kretam，如果要掌握控制权，他应该增持多一点kretam，但是，kretam是一个重组后的公司，股权都分散到债权人手中了，因此只要有20%就能掌控这间公司。
为了避免触动收购法令，Lim避重就轻，增持了kretam-la，目前他已经是89.77%的kretam-la持有人。
我个人觉得“触犯”不适合用来形容收购法令，因为他都没犯法。
89.77%的kretam-la相等于52,406,969单位，以每年2x1%的利息计算，他每年可以拿到RM104.8万的利息。而，kretam还不具备派息条件，因此有理由相信kretam-la更值得持有（虽然kretam-la常年无挂价交易）。
Lim's transaction record in kretam shares recently
Lim's transaction record in kretam-la in severel years
Lim很小心的把股权维持在20%-29%，也曾卖出kretam，买进kretam-la。
affin原本是最大的kretam-la持有人，但他在2007年底，应该是把kretam-la全数转换了，此后，他又把所有的kretam卖给Lim。
我无法找到Affin的买卖记录，因为他不报告买卖。我本来想，或许他是通过监护人(ABB NOMINEE)持有的，控制公司意愿不高，因此他不能算大股东。但，根据年报所示，他还是大股东，既然是，就不能不报告。
如果kretam-la，于10 sept 2010到期，会不会触动收购法令？
我有60%理由相信会触动收购法令。
当kretam-la转换为kretam时，是不能豁免（exempt）收购法令的，原因是，这些kretam-la是Lim从其他人那里购买的，因此豁免权失效。
但或许我有说错之处，因为在冗长的重组契约里，或许有些隐藏条件可以避免触动收购法令。
只要有充分理由，是可以避免的，例如他以白武士资格寻求豁免，他早早和Affin定下了买卖时间表，事先汇报给SC知道。
他还有一个方法避开，那就是卖给其他人，或把股权存进监护人户头(NOMINEE ACCOUNT)里，使自己的权限降低到SC认为满意的水平，满足disqualify transaction的条件。
但Lim看起来相当的“光明磊落”，不可能会做麻烦事。
由此可见，kretam的股价僵持在一个狭窄的范围了。
原因是，kretam的价值本来就是结构性的(structured investment)，就和bsdreit，CHGS一样。
另一个原因，可能是Lim避免万一触动收购法令，需承当更高的献议。
献议价是根据kretam闭市价定的（不是kretam-la的成本价，也不是RM1），如果，他不小心在10 sept 2010之前的某一天转换股票，那天的闭市价又是RM1.5（全年最高闭市价），那么他就要以这个价钱献议（为了避免他就要赶紧把kretam-la抛售避免触动33%股权）。
但，如果10 sept 2010的前面一整年Lim都没有买进kretam-la，那么他就不必担心10 sept 2010到期的闭市价了，因为证券委员会（SC）会计算献议价。
再谈估值
kretam的估值可分为sandakan estate和tawau estate，可分开估价。
sandakan estate的经营很成功，产量居高不下。
至于tawau estate的成绩，年龄很轻，成绩如何等年报揭晓。
顶着tawau火山灰（Volcanic ash）的光环，tawau estate估值应该不低。虽然我不确定他的tawau estate肥不肥（或有没有火山灰成分）。
如果一切都这么真实，kretam total estate可以值RM6.6亿了，相等于转换债券“稀释后”的每股RM2.72价值。
kretam的债务主要是转换债券，除了这些以外，就只有提炼设施，和卖不出的innosabah securites。
因此土地估值绝对占有kretam holding很大的准确度。
如果kretam被便宜的私有化，是不幸的事。
他的合理面和现实面在缠斗着。
我无法给予这样的公司一个买卖建议。
关于4Q08的亏损，我还没有去找答案。
为了避免触动收购法令，Lim避重就轻，增持了kretam-la，目前他已经是89.77%的kretam-la持有人。
我个人觉得“触犯”不适合用来形容收购法令，因为他都没犯法。
89.77%的kretam-la相等于52,406,969单位，以每年2x1%的利息计算，他每年可以拿到RM104.8万的利息。而，kretam还不具备派息条件，因此有理由相信kretam-la更值得持有（虽然kretam-la常年无挂价交易）。
Lim's transaction record in kretam shares recently
| existing shares | 38,354,565 | 21.2% |
|---|---|---|
| acquired from Affin | 15,589,726 | 8.62% |
| exercise of warrant | 1,691,550 | <1% |
Lim's transaction record in kretam-la in severel years
| existing shares | 100 | 0% |
|---|---|---|
| acquired | 52,406,869 | 89.77% |
Lim很小心的把股权维持在20%-29%，也曾卖出kretam，买进kretam-la。
affin原本是最大的kretam-la持有人，但他在2007年底，应该是把kretam-la全数转换了，此后，他又把所有的kretam卖给Lim。
我无法找到Affin的买卖记录，因为他不报告买卖。我本来想，或许他是通过监护人(ABB NOMINEE)持有的，控制公司意愿不高，因此他不能算大股东。但，根据年报所示，他还是大股东，既然是，就不能不报告。
如果kretam-la，于10 sept 2010到期，会不会触动收购法令？
我有60%理由相信会触动收购法令。
当kretam-la转换为kretam时，是不能豁免（exempt）收购法令的，原因是，这些kretam-la是Lim从其他人那里购买的，因此豁免权失效。
但或许我有说错之处，因为在冗长的重组契约里，或许有些隐藏条件可以避免触动收购法令。
只要有充分理由，是可以避免的，例如他以白武士资格寻求豁免，他早早和Affin定下了买卖时间表，事先汇报给SC知道。
他还有一个方法避开，那就是卖给其他人，或把股权存进监护人户头(NOMINEE ACCOUNT)里，使自己的权限降低到SC认为满意的水平，满足disqualify transaction的条件。
但Lim看起来相当的“光明磊落”，不可能会做麻烦事。
由此可见，kretam的股价僵持在一个狭窄的范围了。
原因是，kretam的价值本来就是结构性的(structured investment)，就和bsdreit，CHGS一样。
另一个原因，可能是Lim避免万一触动收购法令，需承当更高的献议。
献议价是根据kretam闭市价定的（不是kretam-la的成本价，也不是RM1），如果，他不小心在10 sept 2010之前的某一天转换股票，那天的闭市价又是RM1.5（全年最高闭市价），那么他就要以这个价钱献议（为了避免他就要赶紧把kretam-la抛售避免触动33%股权）。
但，如果10 sept 2010的前面一整年Lim都没有买进kretam-la，那么他就不必担心10 sept 2010到期的闭市价了，因为证券委员会（SC）会计算献议价。
再谈估值
kretam的估值可分为sandakan estate和tawau estate，可分开估价。
sandakan estate的经营很成功，产量居高不下。
至于tawau estate的成绩，年龄很轻，成绩如何等年报揭晓。
顶着tawau火山灰（Volcanic ash）的光环，tawau estate估值应该不低。虽然我不确定他的tawau estate肥不肥（或有没有火山灰成分）。
如果一切都这么真实，kretam total estate可以值RM6.6亿了，相等于转换债券“稀释后”的每股RM2.72价值。
kretam的债务主要是转换债券，除了这些以外，就只有提炼设施，和卖不出的innosabah securites。
因此土地估值绝对占有kretam holding很大的准确度。
如果kretam被便宜的私有化，是不幸的事。
他的合理面和现实面在缠斗着。
我无法给予这样的公司一个买卖建议。
关于4Q08的亏损，我还没有去找答案。
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